Two Sports Articles I Want to Write About

Prisoner's Dilemma: The connection between fan and inmate behavior, by Bill James

What Baseball Does to the Soul, by Colum McCann

Postseason Top 25

1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +24)
2) LSU (13-1, 9-1, +33)
3) Oklahoma State (12-1, 8-1, +23)
4) Oregon (12-2, 9-1, +18)
5) Arkansas (11-2, 6-2, +17)
6) Stanford (11-2, 8-1, +12)
7) Boise State (12-1, 6-1, +10)
8) Wisconsin (11-3, 7-2, +10)
9) Michigan State (11-3, 7-2, +11)
10) Houston (13-1, 8-1, +9)
11) USC (10-2, 7-2, +8)
12) Kansas State (10-3, 7-2, +8)
13) Baylor (10-3, 6-3, +8)
14) Oklahoma (10-3, 6-3, +8)
15) South Carolina (11-2, 6-2, +7)
16) Michigan (11-2, 6-2, +6)
17) TCU (11-2, 8-0, +5)
18) Southern Miss (12-2, 7-2, +5)
19) Georgia (10-4, 7-2, +2)
20) Nebraska (9-4, 5-3, +1)
21) Virginia Tech (11-3, 7-2, -1)
22) West Virginia (10-3, 5-2, -2)
23) Penn State (9-4, 6-2, -2)
24) Clemson (10-4, 7-2, -3)
25) Auburn (8-5, 4-3, -4)

Brigham Young (10-3, 0-0, -5)
Texas (8-5, 4-5, -6)
Cincinnati (10-3, 5-2, -8)
Florida State (9-4, 4-3, -10)
Rutgers (9-4, 4-3, -12)
Notre Dame (8-5, 0-0, -12)
Georgia Tech (8-5, 5-3, -13)
Virginia (8-5, 5-3, -17)

Winners and Losers

With only four bowl games left, here are the current standings for the 2011-2012 bowl season:

Big 12: 6-1 (1 game left)
Big East: 3-1 (1 game left)
C-USA: 3-1 (1 game left)
MAC: 3-1 (1 game left)
SEC: 4-2 (3 teams left)
Sun Belt: 1-1 (1 game left)
Big Ten: 4-6
MWC: 2-3
Pac-12: 2-5
ACC: 2-6
WAC: 0-3
Notre Dame: 0-1

The big, big winner here, if I'm a computer reading this, is the Big 12. Remember, the Big 12 also had by far and away the best non-conference record during the regular season. At worst, the Big 12 will finish the bowl season with a .750 record. This is a little ironic because the Big 12 keeps threatening to rip itself apart, despite constant and consistent on-field success. In addition, even if you trade two of its bowl winners - Missouri and Texas A&M - for their expected replacements ; TCU and West Virginia - then the conference, in my opinion, gets even stronger. So, next year, even if all the humans agree that the SEC is the strongest conference, expect the computers to give their edge to the Big 12 in the polls.

At 2-5, the Pac-12 is a loser, but it could have been a lot worse. Everything, of course, is fine with me, because the Ducks won the Rose Bowl. Stanford lost, but it was in OT after two missed field goals. We knew that the rest of the conference was middling at best, but really only Cal was a disappointment: Utah won, Washington set offensive records in losing to #12 Baylor, Arizona State got their butts kicked by a Boise State that should've been in the Sugar Bowl, and UCLA was already 6-7. Consider, also, how the loss of USC affected the bowl schedule. Oregon and Stanford would get still BCS bids (assuming an Oregon revenge in the Pac-12 championship.) Then everyone else gets bumped down. USC should be favored against Baylor, and UCLA would get bumped in favor of, probably, Washington. Suddenly, the Pac-12 is 4-3 instead of 2-5. Don't get me wrong: The Pac-12 is still behind the SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten. But I don't believe the gap is all that large.

The big loser is the ACC, going 2-6 with two BCS losses. They lost at least once to every other major conference, with their victories coming against Louisville and Notre Dame. Furthermore, bringing in Pitt and Syracuse is unlikely to boost the conference's football chops anytime soon. Their best hope is for Florida State to start living up to their inflated expectations. A bowl win against the Irish helps, but I will reserve judgement before I proclaim the Seminoles to be "back".

Introducing The Big-Mac Sun Wac Mountain East West Conference USA

East Division:
Cincinnati
Louisville
Rutgers
Connecticut
South Florida
UCF

West Division:
Boise State
San Diego State
Air Force
Colorado State
Nevada
Hawaii

South Division:
Houston
SMU
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Tulsa
East Carolina

North Division:
Ohio
Temple
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Army
Navy

The season would consist of 3 non-conference games, followed by an 8-game conference schedule, playing every other team in your division plus one team each from the other three divisions. Game 12 is a seeded 1-4 semifinal featuring the four division champs, and Game 13 is the conference championship.

Winner plays the 8th seed SEC team in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl!

My Top 25

1) LSU (13-0, 9-0, +34)
2) Oklahoma State (11-1, 8-1, +17)
3) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +18)
4) Stanford (11-1, 8-1, +13)
5) Oregon (11-2, 9-1, +13)
6) Arkansas (10-2, 6-2, +12)
7) Wisconsin (11-2, 7-2, +11)
8) Kansas State (10-2, 7-2, +10)
9) USC (10-2, 7-2, +8)
10) Michigan State (10-3, 7-2, +7)
11) Baylor (9-3, 6-3, +7)
12) Oklahoma (9-3, 6-3, +7)
13) Houston (12-1, 8-1, +7)
14) Georgia (10-3, 7-2, +4)
15) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +4)
16) TCU (10-2, 8-0, +4)
17) Michigan (10-2, 6-2, +3)
18) Virginia Tech (11-2, 7-2, +3)
19) Nebraska (9-3, 5-3, +4)
20) Southern Miss (11-2, 7-2, +4)
21) Clemson (10-3, 7-2, +2)
22) Penn State (9-3, 6-2, +1)
23) West Virginia (9-3, 5-2, -4)
24) Northern Illinois (10-3, 8-1, -5)
25) Auburn (7-5, 4-3, -5)

Texas (7-5, 4-5, -7)
Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2, -9)
Virginia (8-4, 5-3, -12)
Georgia Tech (8-4, 5-3, -6)
Notre Dame (8-4, 0-0, -6)
Florida State (8-4, 4-3, -11)
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3, -13)

My Top 25

1) LSU (12-0, 8-0, +31)
2) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +18)
3) Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1, +13)
4) Stanford (11-1, 8-1, +13)
5) Oregon (10-2, 8-1, +13)
6) Arkansas (10-2, 6-2, +12)
7) Houston (12-0, 8-0, +12)
8) Michigan State (10-2, 7-1, +10)
9) Virginia Tech (11-1, 7-1, +8)
10) Boise State (10-1, 5-1, +8)
11) Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2, +8)
12) Kansas State (9-2, 6-2, +9)
13) USC (10-2, 7-2, +8)
14) Wisconsin (10-2, 6-2, +6)
15) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +4)
16) Georgia (10-2, 7-1, +5)
17) Michigan (10-2, 6-2, +3)
18) Baylor (8-3, 5-3, +5)
19) TCU (9-2, 7-0, +3)
20) Nebraska (9-3, 5-3, +4)
21) Penn State (9-3, 6-2, +1)
22) Southern Miss (10-2, 6-2, -1)
23) Clemson (9-3, 6-2, -3)
24) West Virginia (8-3, 4-2, -5)
25) Texas (7-4, 4-4, -3)

Georgia Tech (8-4, 5-3, -6)
Notre Dame (8-4, 0-0, -6)
Northern Illinois (9-3, 7-1, -6)
Brigham Young (8-3, 0-0, -7)
Cincinnati (8-3, 4-2, -10)

State of the Pac-12

Honestly, as we near the end of the season, the Pac-12 looks more or less the same as it did at the beginning: Two or three elite teams at the top, followed by a mass of mediocre teams logjammed in the middle, and then a handful of stragglers bringing up the rear.

The Good:

1) Oregon Ducks (9-2, 7-1) - I know that, technically, the Ducks ought to be behind Stanford, based on record, and USC, based on head-to-head record, but I would still pick the Ducks as the best team in the Pac-12. They also have the clearest path to the Rose Bowl, needing home wins against Oregon State and UCLA.

2) Stanford Cardinal (10-1, 8-1) - Can the Cardinal obtain an at-large bid to the BCS? They'll need a win tomorrow against Notre Dame, and end in the Top 4 in the final BCS standings, where they are currently 6th. Stanford has to fight against their inability to draw a large crowd at road games - i.e., in last year's Orange Bowl - and their weak schedule. Honestly, their best non-conference win is against Duke. At football.

3) USC Trojans (9-2, 6-2) - Will USC be back next year, when their bowl ban is lifted, but they will still have scholarship limitations? I will admit to being impressed by their showing this year, not just because they beat the Ducks but also because of their triple overtime loss to Stanford, and because of their outstanding consistency following their shaky 19-17 win over Minnesota to open the season. Having said that, how bitter sweet must it be for them to watch UCLA take their spot in the Pac-12 Championship?

The Middling:

4) Washington Huskies (6-5, 4-4) - I kept expecting Washington to make a move this year in the Pac-12. Both QBs Keith Price and Nick Montana have looked good this year, and both should be back next year. However, they're going into tomorrow's Apple Cup on a three game losing streak, and will need a win to preserve a winning season.

5) California Golden Bears (6-5, 3-5) - Here are Cal's records going back the past five years: 2006 (9-3) 2007 (6-6) 2008 (8-4) 2009 (8-4) 2010 (5-7). The Golden Bears never have been able to cross that threshold to an actual national power; and now, after a second consecutive year with at least five losses, they seem as far away from that goal as ever. What I am saying is that, in order to be considered an elite conference, the Pac-12 needs another elite program, and that program is supposed to be Cal.

6) Arizona State Sun Devils (6-5, 4-4) - But this year, at least, the Sun Devils were supposed to be that fourth elite team. Look at their schedule, and you can find at least three winnable games that they lost. (I would say at Illinois, at UCLA, and vs Arizona.) Arizona State lost those three games by a grand total of 8 points. How different would not only the conference, but the national, landscape be, if ASU were 9-2 and going back to Eugene for a rematch? Biggest disappointment of the year.

7) Utah Utes (7-5, 4-5) - Despite losing their first three Pac-12 games, Utah has served themselves very well in their first year in a BCS conference, recording wins against Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA, and Washington State. They also may have the most impressive non-conference schedule of any Pac-12 team thus year, notching wins against BYU and Pittsburgh. They flopped when they needed a win the most, however, giving UCLA the division win with their loss to 3-10 Colorado, as well as laying an egg at home against Arizona State in a 35-14 loss that ended up going a long way in deciding the division. Here's betting that Utah will be a force in the South Division for a while to come, though.

8) UCLA Bruins (6-5, 5-3) - I have already documented the travesty that has allowed the 6-5 Bruins to reach the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game. However, that's not the Bruins fault, who have actually improved considerably over the last couple of years. Unfortunately, they may be being set up for failure this year; if they lose to USC tomorrow, and then lose to Oregon/Stanford in the championship game, they will actually not qualify for a bowl game. Rose Bowl or bust, eh?

The Bad: