Power Rankings 9/25

Yesterday morning, I found myself glued to ABC, watching a mediocre Notre Dame team best a middling Pittsburgh team 15-12. The Irish were over-ranked by the AP once again this year, and we're still all waiting for the Second Coming of the Dynasty - "Are they back? They look like they're back. Could this be the year that they're back?" and so on. But Notre Dame's not the only program that this happens to. Basically every elite team from the 80's and early 90's (Florida State, Miami, Penn State, Nebraska...) is or has been overvalued by the press this year. This probably will never change. But it shouldn't be the reason why I have to watch sub-par football in the middle of the day.

1) LSU Tigers (4-0, 1-0) - Phew - my prediction that nobody will score more than 27 against LSU remains accurate, as the Tigers beat West Virginia 47-21. Honestly, nobody outside of Morgantown should be surprised by the results. West Virginia actually outgained LSU 533-366. However, they also turned the ball over four times, had 73 yards in penalties, and look at how their first half drives ended: punt, fumble, interception, touchdown, punt, punt, punt, interception. There's more than one way for a cat to skin a mountaineer.
Next game: vs. Kentucky

2) Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0, 1-0) - 466, 632, 454, 226. That's the total number of yards that Arkansas has gained through their first four games. Guess which one was against Alabama. The Tide's defense makes a great foil to LSU's; the Tigers are flying all over the field, making interceptions and crazy hard tackles in open space. Alabama just stuffs you, stops the run, stops the pass, makes you punt. Arkansas went three and out six times against Alabama. No gimmicks here.
Next game: at No. 12 Florida (AP rankings)

3) Boise State Broncos (3-0, 0-0) - Poor Boise State. While they were putting a 41-21 whooping on Tulsa, their last opponents, Toledo, were losing to Syracuse 33-30 in OT, and their next opponents, rivals Nevada, were losing to Texas Tech 35-34 on a last minute touchdown. Either of those games go the other way, and suddenly Boise's strength of schedule goes way up. As it stands though, they are going to get no loving from the BCS computers.
Next game: vs Nevada

4) Oklahoma Sooners (3-0, 1-0) - If I were using the Law of Common Opponent - or LCO, as I have just decided - then I would have to rank Oklahoma above Boise State, based on their 47-14 win over Tulsa in week one. Too bad. I didn't like how Missouri was able to gain yards on them, and their signature win lost a little of its shine with Florida State losing on the road. Also, I suspect that they benefit a little from the Notre Dame Effect, or NDE, as I have just decided, too.
Next game: vs Ball State

5) Wisconsin Badgers (4-0, 0-0) - I'll probably end up regretting saying this, but man, I am ready to punch the Badgers card to the Rose Bowl right now. QB Russell Wilson's stat line against South Dakota: 19/25, 345 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs. Put him on the Heisman Watch List.
Next game: vs No. 8 Nebraska

6) Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0, 1-0) -

My Top 25

After a week when several suspicions were confirmed, and new doubts arose:

1) LSU (4-0, 1-0, +11)
2) Alabama (4-0, 1-0, +8)
3) Boise State (3-0, 0-0, +5)
4) Oklahoma (3-0, 1-0, +7)
5) Wisconsin (4-0, 0-0, +4)
6) Oklahoma State (4-0, 1-0, +8)
7) Stanford (3-0, 1-0, +3)
8) South Carolina (4-0, 2-0, +4)
9) Nebraska (4-0, 0-0, +4)
10) South Florida (4-0, 0-0, +5)
11) Baylor (3-0, 0-0, +5)
12) Clemson (4-0, 1-0, +5)
13) Florida (4-0, 2-0, +4)
14) Georgia Tech (4-0, 1-0, +4)
15) Virginia Tech (4-0, 0-0, +4)
16) Illinois (4-0, 0-0, +6)
17) Michigan (4-0, 0-0, +4)
18) Iowa State (3-0, 0-0, +3)
19) Texas (3-0, 0-0, +3)
20) Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0, +3)
21) Kansas State (3-0, 0-0, +3)
22) Houston (4-0, 0-0, +4)
23) Oregon (3-1, 1-0, +2)
24) Arkansas (3-1, 0-1, +2)
25) West Virginia (3-1, 0-0, +2)

My Superconferences

"Conference alignments are nothing but nostalgic attachments, so none of this should bother us at all." - Michael Weinreb

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

Boston College
Connecticut
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina St.
Rutgers
Virginia
Virginia Tech

Coastal Division

Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Miami
South Carolina
South Florida

MIDWESTERN CONFERENCE

Eastern Division

Cincinnati
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
West Virginia

Western Division

Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Minnesota
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Purdue
Wisconsin

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE

Southeastern Division

Alabama
Auburn
Kentucky
Louisville
Mississippi
Mississippi St.
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

Southwestern Division

Arkansas
Baylor
LSU
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Mountain Division

Arizona
Arizona St.
Colorado
Kansas
Kansas St.
Missouri
Nebraska
Utah

Pacific Division

California
Oregon
Oregon St.
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
Washington St.

Power Rankings 9/18

1) LSU Tigers (3-0, 1-0) - LSU held the Mississippi State Bulldogs to 52 rushing yards on Thursday, with an average gain per rush of 1.3 yards. I bet nobody scores more than 27 points on the Tigers this year. I also bet that they'll be 8-0 going into their Nov. 5th showdown with Alabama.

2) Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0, 0-0) - Alabama opens their SEC play against Arkansas next week in what should be the SEC game of the week. Just a hunch, but I bet that Arkansas won't have 450 yards of offense against the Alabama defense.

3) Boise State Broncos (2-0, 0-0) - Ohio State's loss to Miami ended their streak of 103 consecutive appearances in the AP Top 25 poll. The new current longest streak now belongs to Alabama, at 53. Second longest? Boise State, with 49.

4) Oklahoma Sooners (2-0, 0-0) - It's not that I think that Oklahoma is not as good or as talented as Boise State. It's that, if the National Championship were in two weeks, I would vote for the Broncos to play the SEC champ, not the Sooners. And it will probably stay that way until Nov. 5, when Oklahoma plays Texas A&M.

5) Stanford Cardinal (3-0, 1-0) - Andrew Luck was 20 for 31 in passing with 325 yards and 2 touchdowns in Stanford's 37-10 win at Arizona. More importantly, though? 0 turnovers and 0 second half points allowed. That's how Stanford's going to win the Pac-12. The Cardinal gets next week off before home games against UCLA and Colorado. Their next red-letter date will be Oct. 29, at USC.

6) Wisconsin Badgers (3-0, 0-0) - With Michigan State and Ohio State losing, and with Nebraska struggling at home, the Badgers are really separating themselves from the rest of the Big Ten. So far this season, they have outscored their opponents 135-24.

7) Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0, 0-0) - Oklahoma State's game 59-33 win against Tulsa didn't end until 3:55 am. They better get some sleep while they can; they have to travel to College Station to play Texas A&M in the Big 12 game of the week next week.

8) Texas A&M Aggies (2-0, 0-0) - I don't know why I have A&M ranked so high. Home wins against SMU and Idaho shouldn't garner that much respect. Also, they have been causing a lot of trouble lately. Win next weekend and I'll admit that they're legit.

9) South Carolina Gamecocks (3-0, 1-0) - Watching Marcus Lattimore rush for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns against Navy, I thought to myself, "There are only two defenses in the country that can stop this guy." And he's going to have to play one of them in the SEC championship game.

10) Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0, 0-0) - I would be starting to get nervous if I were a Nebraska fan. If you give up 29 points to Fresno State, and 38 to Washington, how many will the run happy honey Badgers put up on you? The Blackshirts have one more week to figure it out, as they have a road game next week at Wyoming.

11) Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0, 0-0) - Have fun being undefeated while it lasts, Arkansas. Four of your next five games are on the road, including at Alabama and at Texas A&M.

12) South Florida Bulls (3-0, 0-0) - This is where I am starting to deviate from orthodoxy. But the Bulls should be rewarded for scheduling tough and beating a Notre Dame team that may not be that bad. Also, they beat Florida A&M 70-17.

13) Virginia Tech Hokies (3-0, 0-0) - Virginia Tech is a tough team to get a handle on, as they have been lackluster in their last two wins against East Carolina and Arkansas State. We probably won't know much about them until Oct. 01, against Clemson, and Oct. 08, against Miami.

14) Baylor Bears (2-0, 0-0) - Like South Florida, I believe that Baylor ought to be considered a top 15 team until somebody proves me wrong on the field. Also, am I the only one who is starting to get excited Iowa State at Baylor on Oct. 08?

15) West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0, 0-0) - ESPN blogger Andrea Adelson wrote, "West Virginia is ready for LSU." She's wrong.

16) Florida Gators (3-0, 1-0) - Florida may not yet be ready-for-primetime in the SEC, and they are fast approaching back to back games against Alabama and LSU. However, some good news about their 33-23 win against Tennessee: They "allowed" -9 rushing yards, and intercepted Tyler Bray twice. The bad news? 16 penalties for 150 yards.

17) Clemson Tigers (3-0, 0-0) - Clemson ended Auburn's record 17-game winning streak - and streak of good luck - 38-24, avenging a heartbreaking OT loss last year. No time to celebrate though; Florida State is coming to town next week, followed by a trip at Virginia Tech.

18) USC Trojans (3-0, 1-0) - Matt Barkley passed for 324 yards and 5 TDs in USC's 38-17 win against Syracuse, the only Pac-12 win against an AQ team last weekend. Three of USC's next four games are on the road, including at Arizona State and at Notre Dame.

19) Texas Longhorns (3-0, 0-0) - Speaking of which... Texas got to exorcise some demons on Saturday, kicking UCLA's butt 49-20 after losing to the Bruins last year 34-12. And even though everyone thinks that the Big 12 is about to dissolve, I think that it's worth mentioning that the conference's current ten members are a combined 23-2 in non-conference play this year. Quite a way to go.

20) Illinois Illini (3-0, 0-0) - I had the surreal experience of watching Illinois' 17-14 win over Arizona State outside at a bar just a few blocks from Memorial Stadium, where the game was being played. The live sound of the roar of the crowd would reach my ears just about three seconds before the play aired on TV, so I could accurately predict whether each play was going to be good or bad for the Illini. This could be a serendipitous year for Illinois: Their next four games are: vs Western Michigan, vs Northwestern, at Indiana, vs Ohio State. They could easily be 5-1 or 6-0 going into the Ohio State game, and my question is, who will be the favorite then?

21) Iowa State Cyclones (3-0, 0-0) - The Cyclones may be my new favorite team in the Big 12. They had to rally from 10-0 to beat Connecticut 24-20, and have won their first three games by a combined total of 8 points. They host Texas next weekend, who they beat last year in Austin 28-21.

22) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-0, 0-0) - My bottom five is less teams that are good, and more teams that have played well up to this point. The Yellow Jackets set a school record of 768 yards of offense in a 66-24 rout of Kansas. Over their first three games, they are averaging 675 yards of offense per game.

23) FIU Panthers (3-0, 0-0) - We'll see how long FIU can sustain success without star receiver T.Y. Hilton. But they were able to beat UCF 17-10 largely without him, and should be considered the favorites to win the Sun Belt conference.

24) Michigan Wolverines (3-0, 0-0) - Because why not, that's why. They're undefeated. They beat Notre Dame. Denard Robinson is awesome, even if he sometimes throws the ball to the wrong team. And they could be 5-1 or 6-0 going into an Oct. 15 game at Michigan State.

25) Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0, 0-0) - See above. They beat lowly New Mexico 59-13, and host Nevada next weekend. Over/under 120?

My Top 25

Boy, I guess we learned something about the Pac-12 last night: They stink!

1) LSU (3-0, 1-0, +8)
2) Alabama (3-0, 0-0, +4)
3) Boise State (2-0, 0-0, +4)
4) Oklahoma (2-0, 0-0, +6)
5) Stanford (3-0, 1-0, +3)
6) Wisconsin (3-0, 0-0, +3)
7) Oklahoma State (3-0, 0-0, +3)
8) Texas A&M (2-0, 0-0, +2)
9) South Carolina (3-0, 1-0, +3)
10) Nebraska (3-0, 0-0, +3)
11) Arkansas (3-0, 0-0, +3)
12) South Florida (3-0, 0-0, +5)
13) Virginia Tech (3-0, 0-0, +3)
14) Baylor (2-0, 0-0, +4)
15) West Virginia (3-0, 0-0, +3)
16) Florida (3-0, 1-0, +3)
17) Clemson (3-0, 0-0, +4)
18) USC (3-0, 1-0, +3)
19) Texas (3-0, 0-0, +3)
20) Illinois (3-0, 0-0, +5)
21) Iowa State (3-0, 0-0, +3)
22) Georgia Tech (3-0, 0-0, +3)
23) FIU (3-0, 0-0, +3)
24) Michigan (3-0, 0-0, +3)
25) Texas Tech (2-0, 0-0, +2)

The State of the Pac-12

Three weeks into the season, and there isn't a whole heck of a lot that we can tell about the Pac-12. Overall, the conference's early showings have not met expectations, highlighted of course by Oregon coming out flat against LSU, but also including Oregon St.'s overtime loss to Sacramento St., Washington's last-minute "win" against Eastern Washington, and Arizona's dismantling against a superior opponent in Oklahoma St. However, it hasn't been all bad news for the conference, and I believe that today could go a long way in answering a lot of our questions about how good the Pac-12 actually is.

As of now, I break down the Pac-12 teams into four broad and vague categories:

1) The Big Two: Stanford and Oregon

2) Better than Average: Arizona St., USC, Utah

3) Middling: Washington, Washington St., California, Arizona

4) Really, Really, Bad: Oregon St., UCLA, Colorado

But these categorizations, of course, don't hold. Could Arizona St. actually be an elite team? Has Washington St. merely benefited from a weak schedule? Could UCLA actually be competitive in the South division? To try and clarify the picture a little bit, let's look at the Divisional breakdown:

NORTH:

1a) Stanford

1b) Oregon

3) Washington

4) California

5) Washington St.

6) Oregon St.

SOUTH:

1) Arizona St.

2) USC (banned)

2) Utah (not banned)

4) Arizona

5) UCLA

6) Colorado

Hopefully, after today, we will know a lot more about the state of the conference. Why? Because:

1) #23 Texas @ UCLA: Really, Texas ought to dominate this game. However, UCLA crushed the Longhorns 34-12 last year, in Austin. And Texas hasn't exactly covered themselves in glory so far this year, beating Rice and then winning a sloppy 17-16 game at home against BYU. If UCLA can pull off the upset here, it will be a huge boost for their season. Hello, Poinsettia Bowl!

2) Washington @ #11 Nebraska: Again, the Pac-12 team is coming into this game as a heavy underdog. But UW kicked Nebraska's butt in last year's Holiday Bowl 19-7. And did you see that Nebraska-Fresno St. game? The Huskies ought to be better than Fresno St. But they better be better than they were against Eastern Washington. Pull off the upset, and Washington will be ranked, and will be set as the "fourth rail" in the Pac-12. Get stomped, and it's back to the drawing board.

3) #22 Arizona St. @ Illinois: I'm putting this one on the list because it's in my backyard. Funny sidenote: The ASU alumni association has bought audio ads on all of the buses in Champaign, saying "Go Devils!" Kind of a weird FU to the community, don't you think? Still, Arizona St. should win this game, especially if they want to be considered a contender for the Rose Bowl. Illinois, I think, is better than most people realize - as in, sixth or seventh in the Big Ten - and a strong win for ASU and Brock Ostweiler will cement their status as Pac-12 South favorites.

9/11 - 9/16 Rankings

1) LSU Tigers (2-0, 0-0, +7) - LSU holds on to the top spot still based on their win against Oregon, although I feel like there's no way to discern between them and Alabama at this point. They'll be challenged next week at Mississippi State, who did them no favors by losing to Auburn.

2) Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0, 0-0, +3) - Nobody should have been surprised that Alabama put the beat down on Penn State in Happy Valley last week. 'Bama gets a pass against North Texas before starting SEC play at home against Arkansas on the 24th. I have them behind LSU based solely on strength of schedule, but consider the LSU-Alabama game a national semifinal at this point.

3) Boise State Broncos (1-0, 0-0, +4) - The boys in blue could not get a break on their week off. First Georgia loses at home to South Carolina; if the Bulldogs end up a middling SEC team, that's bad for Boise. Then Toledo can't quite get the upset at Ohio State! It will be interesting to see what happens if the Broncos demolish a team that the Buckeyes couldn't handle, though...

Top 25

1) LSU
2) Alabama
3) Boise St.
4) Oklahoma
5) Stanford

6) Wisconsin
7) Oklahoma St.
8) Texas A&M
9) Florida St.
10) South Carolina

11) Michigan St.
12) Arkansas
13) Nebraska
14) South Florida
15) Ohio St.

16) Baylor
17) Virginia Tech
18) Arizona St.
19) West Virginia
20) Florida

21) USC
22) Auburn
23) Texas
24) Michigan
25) Washington