Most Impactful Games of the Upcoming Weekend

 

1) (5) North Carolina State (2-0, 0-0, +159) at (64) Wake Forest (2-0, 0-0, +6) - Early season ACC match-up, and test to see if NC State belongs in the conversation for conference champs.  Wake Forest beat Kennesaw State 10-9 in Week One.  Current spread is NCSU (-6.5).  They'll win by more than that.

2) (28) Oregon (2-0, 0-0, +73) at (91) Northwestern (1-1, 0-0, -44) - Oregon is currently 27.5 point favorites at Northwestern.  So far, it seems like the Wildcats haven't done or said anything to piss off Dan Lanning.  I'd still bet on Oregon to cover the spread before they pull their starters.  Even with a win, though, they probably won't crack my Top 25.  (Because Northwestern is very bad.) 

3) (40) Clemson (1-1, 0-0, +52) at (18) Georgia Tech (2-0, 0-0, +89) - Clemson is 2.5 point favorites, so it's barely considered "upset watch".  Do you trust Dabo Swinney to fix what ails the Tigers?  My heart wants Georgia Tech, but my brain says Clemson.

4) (43) Wisconsin (2-0, 0-0, +48) at (59) Alabama (1-1, 0-0, +15) - Alabama three touchdown favorites at home?  Bet on Wisconsin to #CoverTheSpread .

5) (47) Georgia (2-0, 0-0, +39) at (24) Tennessee (2-0, 0-0, +83) - I have no idea what to expect.  Georgia is 3.5 point favorites on the road at Tennessee.  We really haven't seen anything from the Bulldogs yet this season, and Tennessee did beat Syracuse, but then Syracuse needed a miracle to beat UConn, so what does that mean? I don't know.  Flip a coin and go with Georgia.  But don't surprised if both of these teams are in the playoff picture near the end of the year.

6) (2) South Florida (2-0, 0-0, +191) at (9) Miami (FL) (2-0, 0-0, +132) - Game of the Century of the Week.  Probably the biggest game in the history of the USF Bulls.  Hard Rock Stadium will be rockin'. The winner of this game will probably be my No. 1 going into Week 4.  I like South Florida, but I also think that Miami is legit a title contender this year.  I predict something crazy happening (Gramatica missing game winning FG), and the Hurricanes escaping with a win, 32-30.

7) (76) Florida (1-1, 0-0, -5) at (3) LSU (2-0, 0-0, +176) - LSU is 7.5 point favorites at home against Florida. They will win by more than that.  By a lot more than that.

8) (4) Texas A&M (2-0, 0-0, +168) at (80) Notre Dame (0-1, 0-0, -14) - This is another game where I have no clue what will happen. Texas A&M has two decent wins (scores of 42-24 and 44-22) over two decent programs (Texas-San Antonio and Utah State).  Notre Dame has one tough loss on the road against a Top 5 Team, 24-27 at Miami.  The Aggies are 6.5 point underdogs on the road in South Bend, so let's pick them to win, just for fun.  Texas A&M 27, Notre Dame 21

9) (96) Duke (1-1, 0-0, -54) at (12) Tulane (2-0, 0-0, +117) - This was going to be my upset special, except I just found out that Tulane is 1.5 point favorites at home against Duke.  Pick the Green Wave to cover the spread.

Power Rankings - Oct. 27

1) Oregon Ducks (8-0, 5-0, +16) - After watching both Florida State and Alabama absolutely destroy inferior opponents by scores of 49-17 and 45-10 on Saturday, I was prepared to admit that they were the two best teams in the country when the Ducks were tied 14-14 with UCLA at home.  Oregon had committed turnovers, had punts blocked, and missed another Maldonado field goal.  But then they came out and dominated the No. 12 team in the country in the second half en route to a 42-14 win.  So, I have no idea who should be 1 and 2.  The Ducks are here now - they'll be replaced by the winner of FSU-Miami next week, but could regain the place if they win their Thursday, Nov. 7 with Stanford.  They won't be able to get away with sloppy first half play in that game.  Strength of Schedule (SoS): -16.5

2) Florida State (7-0, 5-0, +15) - Strength of Schedule: -15.428

3) Stanford (7-1, 5-1, +15) - SoS: -5.5

4) Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0, +13) - I had hopes that Tennessee - after hanging with Georgia and upsetting South Carolina - would be able to challenge Alabama.  Nope.  Alabama won easily, 45-10, and now, after Missouri's loss, are alone on top of the SEC.  They have a bye next week, and still have challenges ahead against LSU and maybe Auburn, but it's pretty clear right now that Alabama is in a league of their own.  SoS: -15.875

4-4 Tennessee has a Strength of Schedule of -7.25.  They still have one-loss Missouri and one-loss Auburn on their schedule.  Still, 4-4 isn't bad considering they have the Schedule from Hell.  They also play Vanderbilt and Kentucky, and they can get bowl eligible with 2 more wins.

5) Miami Hurricanes (7-0, 3-0, +11) - The Seminoles may turn out to be the big winners of Miami's last minute win over Wake Forest, 24-21, as that raises the stakes of their game next week.  The Hurricanes have been livin' on a prayer for a while now; coming from behind to beat Georgia Tech, North Carolina (by 4) and Wake Forest.  Reason would dictate that they are due for a butt-kicking at the hands of Florida State next week.  But that's also what I said about Texas and Oklahoma, too.  So, basically, don't listen to anything I say. SoS: -19.857

6) Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0, 4-0, +11) - The Buckeyes knew that they were playing in primetime, and they delivered, kicking Penn State's butts 63-14.  This is the same Penn State team that beat Michigan in overtime.  According to the AP, this is Penn State's worst loss since losing to the Duquesne Athletic Club 64-5 on November 25, 1899.  Duquesne would win the Pittsburgh city championship that year, and featured left tackle Otman Franklin Wagonhurst, who would later coach Alabama, be elected the Chief Engineer for the Delaware & Eastern Railroad company, and is buried in Akron, Ohio.  Ohio State is at Purdue next weekend.  SoS: -15

7) Clemson (7-1, 5-1, +9)

8) Northern Illinois (8-0, 4-0, +8) - SoS: -32.25

9) Fresno State Bulldogs (7-0, 4-0, +7) - The Bulldogs needed overtime to beat San Diego State 35-28, their 4th win by 7 points or less.  They are at home against Nevada next weekend.  SoS: -24.142

10) Baylor Bears (7-0, 4-0, +7) - They beat Kansas 59-14 and are at home against Oklahoma next week.  Their two best wins are against Buffalo (MAC) and West Virginia (3-4).  I don't think they will 10 games this year.  SoS: -21.285  

There are eight FBS teams left who are undefeated.  Based on strength of schedule, the rankings should go: 1) Ohio State, 2) Florida State, 3) Alabama, 4) Oregon, 5) Miami, 6) Baylor, 7) Fresno State, 8) Northern Illinois.  The Top 4 teams are all very very close.  The Buckeyes are at a disadvantage with the humans because of the perceived weakness of the Big Ten, their lack of blow out wins (until last night), and their lack of ranked opponents.  If the Ducks win out, they should have the support of both humans (who like their flash) and the computers, who like the Pac-12 and will like 4 top 25 wins and 7 wins against .... let's say the top 54.  But that also means that they are the most likely the team to lose a game.  I don't think that the humans will allow Alabama to be left out of the top 2, but the computers will punish them if they finish the season with only 2 wins against the top 25.  

Everybody seems to agree that some combination of Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State are the top 4, with Stanford as the top 1-loss team.  Where I am the outlier is Texas A&M, who I have 40th, whereas they are #12 in the AP, and were #16 last week in the BCS, #18 with the computers, although it looks like this week the Massey computer has them 10th and Sagarin has them 9th.  Let me make my argument why they should be lower: 

#1: I hate Johnny Manziel.

#2: Fuck Johnny Manziel.

#3: They have no good wins.  Their wins are against: (32) Rice, FCS Sam Houston State, (90) SMU, (93) Arkansas, (46) Mississippi, and (53) Mississippi State.  So their best win is against a good C-USA team, whose only other loss this year has been to Houston.  

#4: They have two home losses, and have also played exactly 2 road games.  They are 2-0 on the road.  One of these was a 45-33 win a Arkansas.  Arkansas' only other home loss was against South Carolina.  They lost that game 52-7.  Texas A&M is currently 12th in the AP.  South Carolina is 14th.  

#5: The polls think that they have two "good losses" - 49-42 against undefeated #1 Alabama, and 45-41 against one-loss #8 Auburn.  First of all, a good loss is still a loss, and when you only get 12 data points, every loss counts.  Now, I like Auburn, and think they're real good.  But they beat my #57 Washington State at home 31-24, and that WSU team lost at home to Oregon State by 28 points.  (Auburn is 8th in the AP, Oregon State is unranked.)  They also beat my #53 Mississippi State 24-20, and that MSU team lost at Oklahoma State 21-3.  (OkSt. is 18th in the AP.)  And while I understand the problems with triangulation, I still think that I have an argument that Texas A&M should be considered slight favorites against Washington State or Mississippi State.

Their inflation is based on the fact that they scored 42 points and gained 628 yards against #1 Alabama, who has given up 36 points and 1,419 yards in their other 7 games combined. (5.1 ppg, 202, ypg) And yes, that's impressive. But they lost.  I don't think it is a good sign if your best game is a loss.  

#6: Turnovers: The two team stats that are most predictive of success are yards per play and turnovers.  The Aggies have forced 15 turnovers and have committed 14.  

#7: Their defense is atrocious.  Of 125 FBS teams, Texas A&M is ranked 110th in terms of yards allowed per game.  

I have the Aggies penciled in at 8-4.  They'll play in the Capital One or Outback Bowls, against Nebraska or Michigan State.  And they'll win.   

11) Missouri (7-1, 3-1, +6)

12) Auburn Tigers (7-1, 3-1, +6) - The AP poll just came out, and OMG guys!  The AP has Auburn 8th, followed by Clemson (9), Missouri (10) and LSU (11).  That's right: TIGERS, TIGERS, TIGERS, TIGERS. Oh my! Next week: at Arkansas.  SoS: -15.875

13) UCLA Bruins (5-2, 2-2, +5) - The Bruins dropped from 12th to 17th in the AP poll, although I only dropped them two spots after losing at Oregon, 42-14.  UCLA was able to run against the Ducks, picking up 219 yards on 4.2 yards per carry, but their passing game was taken out.  Brett Hundley was 13/19, for 64 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs.  That's season lows for him in attempts, completions, yards, and TDs, and a season high in INTs.  After back-to-back road losses to Stanford and Oregon, UCLA gets a reprieve next week when they host Colorado. SoS: -10.857.  Nebraska's loss to Minnesota robs UCLA of their only win over another top 25 team.  

14) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +5)
15) UCF (6-1, 3-0, +5)

16) Michigan (6-1, 2-1, +4)
17) Oregon State (6-2, 4-1, +3)
18) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2, +3)

19) Louisville Cardinals (7-1, 3-1, +2) - My wife's uncle went to graduate school in racetrack management at Louisville, and so, when she was little, there was a lot of Louisville gear around their house.  One day, her dad was wearing a Louisville shirt, and he asked his daughter (who was, like, three) what animal was on his shirt.  After careful consideration, she answered him, "Dad, that is an angry parrot."  The Angry Parrots are at Connecticut next week.  SoS: -22

20) Ball State (8-1, 5-0, +2)

21) Michigan State (7-1, 4-0, +2)

22) Washington Huskies (5-3, 2-3, +2) - The Huskies were able to halt their 3-game losing streak by beating hapless Cal 41-17.  The rest of the season is: bye, vs. Colorado, at UCLA, at Oregon State, vs. Washington State.  A 7-5 season would be disappointing; 9-3 would be exciting.  8-4 would be meh.  I expect their November 23rd game at Oregon State to be a play-in for the Holiday Bowl.  SoS: -9.25

That's a tough schedule.  However, it pales in comparison to Cal's SoS of -4.625.  Cal has lost to the #1, #3, #6, #13, #17, #22, #57, and #80 teams in the country.  Their only win has come against FCS Portland State.

23) Texas Tech (7-1, 4-1, +1)

24) Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2, 3-1, +1) - UCLA's loss against Oregon means that Arizona State is now alone on top of the Pac-12 South.  However, I expect that to be short lived; they still have games at Utah, vs. Oregon State, and at UCLA.  The Sun Devils get to avoid Oregon this year.  However, their schedule is pretty damn hard even without them. SoS: -8.142

25) LSU Tigers (7-2, 3-2, +1) - LSU struggled against FCS Furman in the first half, and led only 20-16 at the half, before they pulled away for a 48-16 win.  Zach Mettenberger was 16/24, with 328 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs (one of which was a pick-six).  The Tigers get next week off before their annual showdown with Alabama.  SoS: -16

Power Rankings - Oct 13

1) Alabama (6-0, 3-0, +11) - It's week 7, and for the first time, I've got Alabama at 1 and Oregon at 2!  This is thanks to a rash of upsets - Michigan, Stanford, Georgia, and Oklahoma all got taken down - but will not last long, with Clemson-FSU and Stanford-UCLA coming up.  Nonetheless, Tide-Ducks is looking pretty damn imminent at this point. (Famous last words!) Kentucky was able to hang with Alabama for a quarter before getting blown out 48-7.  Alabama now gets three consecutive home SEC games: Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU.

2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +11) - In a hard fought Border War, the Ducks prevailed over the Huskies, 45-24.  Without De'Anthony Thomas, QB Marcus Mariota went into Super Mode: 24/31, 366 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, plus 88 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD.  Remember this game if he ends up as a Heisman Finalist.  The Ducks are home against Washington State next week.  

3) Missouri (6-0, 2-0, +11) - Tigers! Tigers! Tigers!  Missouri showed up in winning at Georgia 41-26.  Despite being outgained 454-375, the Tigers caused 2 fumbles and 2 fourth quarter interceptions to pull off the upset and move to 2-0 in the SEC.  They now also get three straight home games: Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee.  Poor Tennessee.  

4) Clemson (6-0, 4-0, +10) - Tigers! Tigers! Tigers! Clemson avoided pullin' a Clemson, rallying in the 4th quarter to beat Boston College, 24-14, and set up the big showdown next weekend against Florida State.  A lot will be on the line in that game: Conference championships, national rankings, Heisman hopes.  It should be good.  

5) Miami (FL) (5-0, 1-0, +9) - Miami had a bye and plays North Carolina next week.

For the 3rd week in a row, Alabama has received 55 first place votes in the AP, and Oregon the other 5.  But I don't get why.  Four of those voters switched after Oregon beat Tennessee - the other after the Ducks had a bye week.  However, nobody seems to have changed their mind after Oregon beat the No. 16 team on the road by 3 touchdowns.  Why not?  I'm not saying that they must switch their votes.  I would just like a little insight into what they take into account when voting.

6) Ohio State (6-0, 2-0, +9) - Ohio State had a bye and plays Iowa next week.

So, for example, AP No. 10 LSU beat No. 17 Florida 17-6.  The next week, LSU is 6 and Florida is 22.  No. 2 Oregon beat No. 16 Washington 45-24, and the next week Oregon is No. 2 (still) and Washington is 20.  I get that the Ducks have a ceiling - but they don't get any reward for winning big against a good team? 

7) Florida State (5-0, 3-0, +8) - Florida State had a bye and plays Clemson next week.

The winner of Florida State vs. Clemson will be my #1 next week. This game will feature Clemson QB Tajh Boyd (7th nationally in pass efficiency, 16th in passing yards per game at 297.2) versus Florida State QB Jameis Winston (#2 in pass efficiency, 19th in pass yards at 288.2).  The winner will have two wins over nationally ranked teams, although I would probably value Clemson's win over Georgia higher than Florida State's over Maryland.  But that's not up to me. You see, there's a system at work now.  

8) UCLA (5-0, 2-0, +8) - Similarly, UCLA will be my number 2 if they can beat Stanford next week.  The Bruins handled Cal 37-10.  A win over Stanford would give UCLA three quality wins (Nebraska and Utah).  The Bruins will be having a whole lot of confidence coming into this game: Ranked in the top 10, 7th in the nation in yards per game and points scored.  They have to visit The Farm though, and Stanford's tough defense.  Right now, I'm thinking Stanford 21, UCLA 17.  But I reserve the right to change my mind.  

9) Stanford (5-1, 3-1, +7) - So, did Stanford get "exposed" in their 27-21 loss at Utah?  Not really.  We knew Utah was dangerous.  The teams had almost identical stats, and more or less traded turnovers.  Stanford had a 4th down on Utah's 6 with 51 seconds left to play, and Kevin Hogan just threw a bad pass.  However, remember that game against Army in week 2?  Stanford fell behind early before grinding out a 34-20 win.  And the Cardinal just watched Oregon decisively defeat a Washington team that they needed a little luck to beat at home.  Although they score 36 points per game, they are 72nd in the nation and 11th in the Pac-12 in yards per game, at 405.2.  That might be an issue going forward, especially as their schedule gets very, very interesting: vs. UCLA, at Oregon State, vs. Oregon, at USC.  

10) Washington (4-2, 1-2, +7) - Is it just me, or do the Fox Sports announcers openly root against Oregon?  On Saturday, they must have said six or seven times that the Oregon defense was weak, and that Washington's plan was to out muscle them and wear them down.  So, what happened? The Ducks outgained the Huskies 631 to 376, caused two turnovers while committing 0, and, after the Huskies scored a 3rd quarter touchdown to cut the lead to 31-24, the Ducks allowed exactly 20 4th quarter yards on 13 plays.  Although Washington must be disappointed in going 0-2 against the Ducks and Stanford, they still have a lot to play for.  They're at Arizona State next week.  

11) Georgia (4-2, 3-1, +6) - I hate Georgia.  I'm so glad that they lost.  Yes, I know that they were basically playing without any of their offensive players, but still, this game felt good. The Bulldogs had already stolen wins from LSU and Tennessee, but you can only go to that well so many times. After falling behind in the 1st half, it looked like Aaron Murray was going to lead yet another comeback when they cut to the lead to 28-26.  But then Missouri got tough, forced turnovers, and came away with the win.  Georgia is at Vanderbilt next weekend.  

Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina now all 1 conference loss, with Mizzou undefeated.  Florida still has to play all three; South Carolina is at Mizzou and home against Florida.  Missouri hosts Florida and South Carolina, as well as Texas A&M.  So Georgia still has a path to the SEC Championship, albeit a narrow one.  

12) Texas Tech (6-0, 3-0, +6) - The Big 12 is a mess! I love it! Texas' huge upset of Oklahoma knocked the Sooners out of the top spot in the conference (as well as the chase for the national championship), leaving Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor as the three teams without a conference loss.  Of course, none of those teams play each other until the end of the season: Tech plays Baylor in Arlington on Nov. 16, is at Texas on Nov. 28 (Thanksgiving), and Texas is at Baylor on Dec. 7.  I'm betting that the Big 12 champ will have at least 2 losses this year.  Also, trivia: The last Big 12 champ from the state of Texas that was not Texas was Texas A&M, in 1998.  

Other weird trivia: Texas Tech's last official conference championship was 1994 in the Southwest Conference.  Texas A&M went 6-0-1 in conference that year, but was banned from the postseason for boosters paying students (gee, somethings never change.)  So Texas Tech - who went 4-3 in conference and 6-6 over all - got to claim a co-championship along with Texas, Baylor, TCU, and Rice.  They played in the Cotton Bowl that year and lost to USC, 55-14. 

13) Louisville (6-0, 2-0, +6)

14) Northern Illinois (6-0, 2-0, +6)

15) LSU (6-1, 3-1, +6) - Tigers! Tigers! Tigers! LSU beat Florida 17-6, and have an interesting road game next week against Mississippi.  LSU is still my dark horse to win the SEC.  The SEC East is beating each other up.  The Tigers still have challenges ahead against Alabama and Texas A&M.  They can win.

Meanwhile, the Gators suck.  They have the 96th most prolific offense in the country.  They have wins against Toledo (3-3), Tennessee (3-3), Kentucky (1-5), and Arkansas (3-4).  Missouri's going to beat them next week.  Over-under 6.5 wins for Florida on the season.  

16) Fresno State (5-0, 2-0, +5)

17) Houston (5-0, 2-0, +5) - Houston beat Memphis 25-15.  Next week it will be Cougars versus Cougars as they play at BYU.  

The American Conference runner up goes to the Russell Athletic Bowl. 

18) Baylor (5-0, 2-0, +5) - Baylor was on upset alert for a while against Kansas State, trailing 25-21 in the fourth quarter before coming back for the win, 35-25.  Their offense looked mortal for the first time this season, gaining "only" 451 yards on 7.9 yards per play.  As it turns out, starting the season with 3 home games against Wofford, Buffalo, and Louisiana Monroe might inflate your stats a little! The Bears play Iowa State next week.  

19) Virginia Tech (6-1, 3-0, +5) - Good old, boring, Virginia Tech.  They beat Pittsburgh 19-9, allowing 210 yards on yards per play. They gave up 23 rushing yards on 0.9 yards per play.  They play Duke next week.  

20) Auburn (5-1, 2-1, +4) - Tigers! Tigers! Tigers! Auburn beat FCS West Carolina 62-3.  Auburn could be the ultimate spoiler in the SEC.  They're last two games are both at home where they are 5-0, against Georgia and Alabama.  They are at Texas A&M next week.  

21) Michigan (5-1, 1-1, +3) - I know I should never root for Penn State and their rapist protection program, but I was glad when Michigan went down on the road in a very exciting triple overtime game, 43-40.  Any game that features a combined 5 missed field goals is bound to be exciting, and I'm glad that the Wolverines - who, remember beat Akron 28-24 and Connecticut 24-21, finally ran out of luck.  They're at home against Indiana next week.  

22) Oregon State (5-1, 3-0, +3) - Now, y'all know that I am a huge Marcus Mariota fan and, while I think he's one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the country, he might be the number 2 quarterback in the state.  On Saturday, the Beavers thrashed Washington State 52-24 (you know, the Washington State same team that held USC to 7 points), and QB Sean Mannion was 34/51, 493 yds, 4 TDs and 1 INT.  Mannion is #1 in the country in passing yards per game, and total offense per game, and WR Brandin Cooks is #1 in the country in receiving yards per game and receptions per game.  (Also, CB Steven Nelson is #1 in the country in interceptions per game.)  The Beavers have yet to play any top ranked opponents, but they have beaten Utah and WSU.  And they're one missed field goal against Eastern Washington from being undefeated. They're at Cal next week, then have a very interesting home game against Stanford the week after that.  

23) South Carolina (5-1, 3-1, +3)

24) Utah (4-2, 1-2, +2) - Utah won their first win against a top-5 time since beating Alabama in the 2009 Sugar Bowl.  And we knew this was coming, after barely losing at home to both Oregon State and UCLA.  They'll need some help if they want to compete in the Pac-12 South - they've already lost to UCLA - but they now have two very winnable games on the road: at Arizona and at USC.  

25) UCF (4-1, 1-0, 0)

My Top 25

1) Alabama (6-0, 3-0, +11)
2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +11)
3) Missouri (6-0, 2-0, +11)
4) Clemson (6-0, 4-0, +10)
5) Miami (FL) (5-0, 1-0, +9)

6) Ohio State (6-0, 2-0, +9)
7) Florida State (5-0, 3-0, +8)
8) UCLA (5-0, 2-0, +8)
9) Stanford (5-1, 3-1, +7)
10) Washington (4-2, 1-2, +7)

11) Georgia (4-2, 3-1, +6)
12) Texas Tech (6-0, 3-0, +6) 
13) Louisville (6-0, 2-0, +6)
14) Northern Illinois (6-0, 2-0, +6)
15) LSU (6-1, 3-1, +6)

16) Fresno State (5-0, 2-0, +5)
17) Houston (5-0, 2-0, +5)
18) Baylor (5-0, 2-0, +5)
19) Virginia Tech (6-1, 3-0, +5)
20) Auburn (5-1, 2-1, +4) 

21) Michigan (5-1, 1-1, +3)
22) Oregon State (5-1, 3-0, +3) 
23) South Carolina (5-1, 3-1, +3)
24) Utah (4-2, 1-2, +2)
25) UCF (4-1, 1-0, 0)


Maryland (5-1, 1-1, 0)
Ball State (6-1, 3-0, 0)
Michigan State (5-1, 2-0, 0)
Nebraska (5-1, 2-0, 0)
Oklahoma (5-1, 2-1, -1)
Texas A&M (5-1, 2-1, -1)
Oklahoma State (4-1, 1-1, -2)
Notre Dame (4-2, 0-0, -2)
Penn State (4-2, 1-1, -2)
Rutgers (4-2, 1-1, -3)
Illinois (3-2, 0-1, -3)
Iowa (4-2, 1-1, -3)
Minnesota (4-2, 0-2, -3)
Rice (4-2, 3-0, -3)
Wisconsin (4-2, 2-1, -3)
Northwestern (4-2, 0-2, -4)
Arizona (3-2, 0-2, -4)
Arizona State (4-2, 2-1, -4)
Buffalo (4-2, 2-0, -4)
Texas (4-2, 3-0, -4)
Bowling Green (5-2, 3-0, -5)
Brigham Young (4-2, 0-0, -5)
Florida  (4-2, 3-1, -6)
Tennessee (3-3, 0-2, -6)
Boise State (4-2, 2-1, -7)
UNLV (4-2, 2-0, -7)
Tulane (5-2, 3-0, -7)
USC (4-2, 1-2, -7)
Ohio (4-2, 1-1, -8)
East Carolina (4-2, 2-1, -8)
Wyoming (4-2, 2-0, -8)
Pittsburgh (3-2, 2-2, -8)
West Virginia (3-3, 1-2, -8)
Western Kentucky (4-2, 1-1, -8)
Old Dominion (4-2, 0-0, -8)
Cincinnati (4-2, 1-1, -8)
TCU (3-3, 1-2, -8 )
Duke (4-2, 0-2, -8)
Marshall (4-2, 2-0, -8)
Navy (3-2, 0-0, -9)
Washington State (4-3, 2-2, -9)
Louisiana-Lafayette (3-2, 1-0, -9)
Syracuse (3-3, 1-1, -9)
North Carolina State (3-3, 0-3, -10)
Indiana (3-3, 1-1, -10)
Mississippi State (3-3, 0-2, -10)
Wake Forest (3-3, 1-2, -10)
Mississippi (3-3, 1-3, -11)
Georgia Tech (3-3, 2-2, -11)
Boston College (3-3, 1-2, -11)
Toledo (3-3, 2-1, -11)
San Diego State (3-3, 2-0, -11)
Texas State (3-3, 0-2, -12)
Colorado (2-3, 0-3, -13)
Kansas (2-3, 0-2, -13)
Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-3, -13)
North Texas (3-3, 1-1, -13)
Nevada (3-3, 2-1, -14)
Arkansas State (3-3, 1-0, -14)
Troy (4-3. 2-1, -14)
San Jose State (3-3, 2-1, -14)
Middle Tennessee (3-3, 1-1, -15)
South Alabama (2-3, 1-1, -16)
Army (3-4, 0-0, -16)
South Florida (2-4, 2-0, -17)
Virginia (1-4, 0-2, -18)
Colorado State (2-4, 0-1, -18)
North Carolina (1-4, 0-2, -18)
Louisiana-Monroe (3-4, 1-1, -18)
Tulsa  (2-4, 1-1, -19)
UAB (2-4, 1-1, -19)
Kansas State (2-4, 0-3, -20)
Iowa State (1-4, 0-2, -20)
California (1-5, 0-3, -20)
Utah State (3-4, 2-1, -21)
Arkansas (3-4, 0-3, -21)
Memphis (1-4, 0-2, -21)
Central Michigan (3-4. 2-1, -21)
New Mexico (2-4, 0-2, -22)
Louisiana Tech (2-4, 1-1, -22)
Kent State (2-5, 1-3, -23)
SMU (1-4, 0-1, -23)
Kentucky (1-5, 0-3,  -24)
UTSA (2-5, 1-2, -25)
Connecticut (0-5, 0-1, -25)
Akron (1-6, 0-3, -28)
Temple (0-6, 0-3, -28)
Purdue (1-5, 0-2, -28)
Florida Atlantic (2-5, 1-4, -28)
Florida International (1-5, 1-1, -28)
UTEP (1-5, 0-3, -29)
Eastern Michigan (1-5, 0-2, -29)
Southern Miss (0-5, 0-1, -29)
Massachusetts (1-5, 1-1, -29)
New Mexico State (0-6, 0-0, -30)
Georgia State (0-6, 0-1, -31)
Idaho (1-6, 0-0, -33)
Air Force (1-6, 0-5, -35)
Hawaii (0-6, 0-4, -35)
Miami (OH) (0-6, 0-2, -36)
Western Michigan (0-7, 0-3, -40)

Power Rankings - Sept. 08

1) Clemson Tigers (2-0, 0-0, +6) - ACC! ACC! ACC! So, I am as happy as anyone that Little Brother is 2-1 this year against the big, bad SEC.  But, as a conference, they are still lacking.  In non-conference play, the ACC is 15-5, 9-5 against FBS teams, and 3-4 against teams from BCS conferences.  Clemson and Florida State and maybe Miami are good teams, and the rest of the conference is lacking.  The Tigers open conference play at North Carolina State on Thursday, Sept. 19 and, looking at their schedule, you start thinking, "Gee, a 10-win season would kind of be a disappointment." 

2) Michigan Wolverines (2-0, 0-0, +6) - I think the Wolverines are pretty good.  Devin Gardner outdueled Tommy Rees with a 21/33, 294 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT stat line, plus 82 yards and 1 TD rushing, and Michigan beat Notre Dame 41-30.  Looking ahead, they have a very manageable schedule, with cupcakes Akron and Connecticut up next before they start conference play.  They have two tough road trips - at Penn State on October 12 and at Northwestern on November 16 - and they finish the season at home against Ohio State.  Nine wins should get Michigan a New Year's Bowl.  Ten should get them a BCS Bowl.  Did you know that Big Ten teams are 1-10 in the Rose Bowl since 2001? 

3) Miami Hurricanes (2-0, 0-0, +6) - Well, I was thinking about picking Miami over Florida.  I didn't actually pick them, but I was thinking about picking them.  So, you know.  Partial credit.  That game was one of my favorite games to watch, just for its pure looniness, zaniness, and general Keystone-Coppery.  For the record, Miami won 21-16, even though Florida outgained Miami 413-212, won Time of Possession 38:20 to 21:40, won First Downs 22 to 10, and held Miami to 50 rushing yards on 1.8 yards per carry.  But, man. Turnovers. From the AP: 

The one touchdown Florida had in the red zone was a gift, set up by a blocked punt in the first quarter. The other Florida trips deep into Miami territory ended thusly:
- Interception by Rayshawn Jenkins.
- Stopped on downs by Denzel Perryman and Olsen Pierre.
- Fumble by Trey Burton that was forced by Jimmy Gaines.
- Field goal
- Interception by Tracy Howard.

Miami's schedule from here looks very winnable, with the possible exception of Nov. 02 at Florida State.  But with Clemson and Florida State in the other ACC Division, and with Virginia Tech looking weak, the Hurricanes could play in their first ever ACC Championship game this year. 

4) Bowling Green Flacons (2-0, 1-0, +4) - Oh, MAC.  The Falcons have two "quality" wins, over Tulsa and Kent State, both 11-3 teams last year, and they can keep it going if they beat Indiana next week.  But I seriously doubt that a 1-loss MAC champ will bust the BCS this year.  The conference is 9-13 in non-conference play, 4-12 vs FBS, 2-11 vs. BCS.  My favorite is Western Michigan's 23-27 home loss to Nicholls State.  

5) Auburn Tigers (2-0, 0-0, +4) - Auburn becomes another "Stalking Deer," being ranked 5th on the strength of wins against Sun Belt champ Arkansas State and Washington State. (Who, BTW, beat USC in L.A. 10-7, their first win there in 13 years!)  Auburn's next two games are against Mississippi State and LSU.  So they won't be 4-0. In what feels like a slow start for the SEC, the conference is 18-4 in non-conference play, 12-4 vs. FBS teams, but only 4-3 vs. BCS teams.  Next week will be interesting, with Tennessee at Oregon, Kentucky at Louisville, and Mississippi at Texas.  We could be looking at a .500 SEC.  

6) Illinois (2-0, 0-0, +4) - Yes, I am trolling you by having Illinois - a team that beat FCS Southern Illinois by 42-34 at home - 6th in my power rankings. However, they also beat what was supposed to be a pretty good Cincinnati team 45-17 behind a 26/37, 312 yard, 4 TD 0 INT performance from QB Nathan Scheelhaase.  Next week, they take on Washington at Soldier Field in Chicago in the Library Science Bowl. 

7) Stanford (1-0, 0-0, +4) - So, I, um, fell asleep during this game.  But, yeah Stanford beating San Jose 34-13, that sounds reasonable.  Maybe some concern about Kevin Hogan's passing accuracy ... um.... ooh! They held SJSU to 35 rushing yards on 1.5 yards per run.  That's impressive.  Stanford's at Army next week.  

8) Washington (1-0, 0-0, +3)

9) Utah Utes (2-0, 0-0, +3) - I've done this for the other conferences, so I guess I'll do it for the Pac-12, too.  In non-conference play, the Pac-12 is 15-3 total, 9-2 against FBS teams, and 1-2 against BCS schools.  (Yeesh.) They play 6 BCS opponents next week, including 4 against the Big Ten.  I would bet that the Pac-12 goes 4-2 in those games.  Utah hosts Oregon State in the only conference game.  

10) Oregon (2-0, 0-0, +2)

11) Texas A&M Aggies (2-0, 0-0, +2) - First, a disclaimer: I love hating on the SEC.  Second, I'm beginning to think that, this year, Alabama may be in a class of their own in the conference.  Maybe LSU can challenge them, I don't know.  But not these Aggies.  In their 65-28 win against FCS Sam Houston State (which is a good FCS team, but still...) Texas A&M gave up 240 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per play.  Last week, they gave up 306 rushing yards to the Rice Owls on 6.0 yards per play.  So, yeah.  Alabama will not be allowing Johnny Richpants to throw for 426 yards against them, or even the 253 he had against them last year in that 29-24 upset in Tuscaloosa.  Remember, in the 1st quarter of that game, Texas A&M had 187 yards and 20 points.  In quarters 2 through 4, they had 236 total yards and 9 points.  Also, Alabama has had a week off, and Nick Saban doesn't like to lose. My pick: Alabama 39, Texas A&M 9. 

12) Ohio State (2-0, 0-0, +2)
13) LSU (2-0, 0-0, +2) 
14) Oklahoma (2-0, 1-0, +2)

15) Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0, 0-0, +2) - One of the biggest surprises for me has been the huge success that Big Ten teams have had so far this season against non-conference opponents.  In the first two weeks, they are 21-3 overall, 16-3 against FBS teams, 6-1 against BCS teams.  Nebraska will try to keep it going next week against UCLA, one of four Big Ten-Pac-12 match-ups.  

16) Arizona (2-0, 0-0, +2)
17) Texas Tech (2-0, 0-0, +2)
18) Ball State (2-0, 0-0, +2)
19) Northwestern (2-0, 0-0, +2)

20) Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0, 0-0, +2) - During halftime of their 45-7 rout of Eastern Michigan, Penn State honored their 1973 team that went 12-0.  The AP tweeted, and then I responded:

1. Dan Gelston ‏@APgelston7 Sep

   #PSU band spells out 12 0 in honor of 1973 team. pic.twitter.com/6ehx6qMVGO

    View photo
   

   •  Reply 
   •  Retweet 
   •  Favorite 
2. AP Top 25 ‏@AP_Top257 Sep

   RT @APgelston: #PennState band spells out 12 0 in honor of 1973 team. pic.twitter.com/6cabdxZk1h

    View photo
3. Joel Wright ‏@joelwrig7 Sep

   .@AP_Top25 @APgelston Then they formed "45", the number of counts of sexual abuse Jerry Sandusky was found guilty of.

Maybe not the classiest thing I have ever written.  However, 1) Sandusky was the linebackers coach on that team, and 2) Penn State University should not celebrate any achievement that their football team has ever accomplished.  Predictably, some folks disagree with me, and the following hilarity ensued:  

2. Cameron Panase™ ‏@Panase3123h

   @joelwrig @AP_Top25 @APgelston coming from a Illinois fan😂😂😂 remind me of what happened last year?

   Details
3. Joel Wright ‏@joelwrig22h

   @Panase31 @AP_Top25 @APgelston 13-1. Won the Rose Bowl. Every opponent's starting QB suffered a horrific leg injury. Duh.

   Details
4. Cameron Panase™ ‏@Panase3122h

   @joelwrig @AP_Top25 @APgelston I don't know what the hell you're drinking but Penn State beat you 35-7 last year as you're talking shit

   Details
5. Joel Wright ‏@joelwrig20h

   @Panase31 @AP_Top25 @APgelston PSU? Blast! We could never best the Fighting Child Rapists!

   Details
6. Cameron Panase™ ‏@Panase3120h

   @joelwrig @AP_Top25 @APgelston no one on that staff was involved with that keep the excuses coming

   Details
7. Joel Wright ‏@joelwrig20h

   @Panase31 @AP_Top25 @APgelston No, you are correct, sir. Illinois is terrible at football. Congratulations.

   
   

Look, college football is a problem.  It begins with the fact that we have established a billion-dollar industry on unpaid, highly dangerous labor.  (No, tuition wavers do not count as payment.)  From there we get a culture of corruption, bribery, the corporatization and privatization of publicly funded universities, (Hello, Nike!) misogyny and sanctioned sexual violence, and the spectacle of violence being executed upon Black male bodies for a White audience.  And I don't want to belittle any of this very real suffering and oppression that is caused by college football, but a public university knowingly allowing a pedophile to rape children for 15 years and not preventing it because it would harm the reputation and the profitability of the football team is the worst of these crimes.  So, go to hell, Penn State fans, and take your 1973 team with you.  

And, yes.  Illinois' a problem too. 

21) Fresno State (2-0, 0-0, +2)

22) Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-0, 0-0, +2) - For entry, see "sanctioned sexual violence", above. 

And now I am too sad to continue blogging about football. 

23) Baylor (2-0, 0-0, +2)
24) UCF (2-0, 0-0, +2)
25) Mississippi (2-0, 1-0, +2)