Most Impactful Games of the Upcoming Weekend

 

1) (5) North Carolina State (2-0, 0-0, +159) at (64) Wake Forest (2-0, 0-0, +6) - Early season ACC match-up, and test to see if NC State belongs in the conversation for conference champs.  Wake Forest beat Kennesaw State 10-9 in Week One.  Current spread is NCSU (-6.5).  They'll win by more than that.

2) (28) Oregon (2-0, 0-0, +73) at (91) Northwestern (1-1, 0-0, -44) - Oregon is currently 27.5 point favorites at Northwestern.  So far, it seems like the Wildcats haven't done or said anything to piss off Dan Lanning.  I'd still bet on Oregon to cover the spread before they pull their starters.  Even with a win, though, they probably won't crack my Top 25.  (Because Northwestern is very bad.) 

3) (40) Clemson (1-1, 0-0, +52) at (18) Georgia Tech (2-0, 0-0, +89) - Clemson is 2.5 point favorites, so it's barely considered "upset watch".  Do you trust Dabo Swinney to fix what ails the Tigers?  My heart wants Georgia Tech, but my brain says Clemson.

4) (43) Wisconsin (2-0, 0-0, +48) at (59) Alabama (1-1, 0-0, +15) - Alabama three touchdown favorites at home?  Bet on Wisconsin to #CoverTheSpread .

5) (47) Georgia (2-0, 0-0, +39) at (24) Tennessee (2-0, 0-0, +83) - I have no idea what to expect.  Georgia is 3.5 point favorites on the road at Tennessee.  We really haven't seen anything from the Bulldogs yet this season, and Tennessee did beat Syracuse, but then Syracuse needed a miracle to beat UConn, so what does that mean? I don't know.  Flip a coin and go with Georgia.  But don't surprised if both of these teams are in the playoff picture near the end of the year.

6) (2) South Florida (2-0, 0-0, +191) at (9) Miami (FL) (2-0, 0-0, +132) - Game of the Century of the Week.  Probably the biggest game in the history of the USF Bulls.  Hard Rock Stadium will be rockin'. The winner of this game will probably be my No. 1 going into Week 4.  I like South Florida, but I also think that Miami is legit a title contender this year.  I predict something crazy happening (Gramatica missing game winning FG), and the Hurricanes escaping with a win, 32-30.

7) (76) Florida (1-1, 0-0, -5) at (3) LSU (2-0, 0-0, +176) - LSU is 7.5 point favorites at home against Florida. They will win by more than that.  By a lot more than that.

8) (4) Texas A&M (2-0, 0-0, +168) at (80) Notre Dame (0-1, 0-0, -14) - This is another game where I have no clue what will happen. Texas A&M has two decent wins (scores of 42-24 and 44-22) over two decent programs (Texas-San Antonio and Utah State).  Notre Dame has one tough loss on the road against a Top 5 Team, 24-27 at Miami.  The Aggies are 6.5 point underdogs on the road in South Bend, so let's pick them to win, just for fun.  Texas A&M 27, Notre Dame 21

9) (96) Duke (1-1, 0-0, -54) at (12) Tulane (2-0, 0-0, +117) - This was going to be my upset special, except I just found out that Tulane is 1.5 point favorites at home against Duke.  Pick the Green Wave to cover the spread.

Week 2 Power Rankings: Five Factors to Winning Football

 

Way back in 2014, the college football guru, Bill Connelly, wrote a little blogpost on the SBNation website Football Study Hall entitled, “The five factors: College football’s most important stats,” in which he laid out the keys to winning every college football game.  Think of this as the college football equivalent to the sabermetrics revolution in baseball.  Connelly later would turn this blogpost into an entire book, Study Hall: College Football, Its Stats, and Its Stories and a job at ESPN.  I highly recommend his writings. 

In short, the five factors are Explosiveness, Efficiency, Field Position, Finishing Drives, and Turnovers.  (Field Position is always the one that I can’t remember.) Some of these factors bleed into one another, obviously, and some of them can be divided up into further sub-categories.  However, they do provide a valuable lens through which we can analyze exactly why such-and-such of a college football game turned out the way that it did. 

1) Iowa State Cyclones (3-0, 1-0, +203) - Amidst the wreckage that is the Big 12 Conference right now, Iowa State stands atop, waving their flag of red and gold. The Cyclones won their third El Classico in the last four years against rivals Iowa, in a 16-13 game that only the mother of an Iowa son could love. For example, in the third quarter, Iowa ran a 16-play, 77-yard drive that took 9:28 of gametime, and ended in a field goal, their only points of the second half. 

Meanwhile, ISU’s win was one of the few bright spots for an otherwise disastrous weekend for the Big 12.  The other Big 12 team that I thought could compete for a playoff spot, Arizona State, lost at Mississippi State.  West Virginia lost to Ohio of the MAC.  Kansas State lost to Army, who had just lost to FCS Tarleton State.  Oklahoma State lost to Oregon sixty-nine to three.  (More on that later!)  The Cyclones are not a great team, but they seem to be the Best of the Rest, and their conference schedule seems manageable, despite some tricky late-season games at Colorado and TCU. 

Explosiveness: Explosiveness is defined as the number of big yardage plays that your offense runs during a game, usually defined as 10 or more yards for a rushing play and 20 or more yards for a passing play.  You’ll often hear commentators call these “chunk plays.”  Getting as many explosive plays as possible is key to winning, because they usually end in scores or easy scoring opportunities, they avoid third-and-long situations, and they minimize the risk of turnovers. 

Iowa-Iowa St was NOT an explosive game.  Iowa ran a total of 4 explosive plays and Iowa St had 3.  This is going to be a very, very big problem for both of these teams later in this season. 

2) South Florida Bulls (2-0, 0-0, +191) - I owe South Florida an apology.  I was not familiar with their game.  After the Bulls Week One win over Boise State, I dismissed them, thinking that the win had more to do with Boise having a hard time replacing one of the greatest college running backs of all time than with anything that USF did.  Their latest win - 18-16 over the Florida Gators - has changed my opinion. The Bulls now seem like the creme de la creme of the G5, and I would be willing to bet your mortgage (not mine) on the G5 playoff representative coming from the American Conference.  

Meanwhile, I just do not understand how Florida head coach Billy Napier still has a job.  The Gators took the lead 16-15 with a touchdown with 12 minutes left in the game. USF kicker Nico Gramatica (yes, of those Gramaticas) missed a 58-yard field goal, giving Florida the ball and a 1-point lead with only 2:56 left in the game. Florida should have been able to sit on the ball, grind out a few first downs, and ice the game.  Instead, they call a timeout, throw an incomplete pass, rush for 2 yards, THROW A SECOND INCOMPLETE PASS, and then punt the ball - with 2:39 left in the game.  18 seconds off the clock.  USF then marches down the field, aided by a 13-yard pass interference penalty and a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty when a Florida player spat on a dude, and sets up Gramatica to hit a game-winning 19-yard field goal as time expires.  Seriously. Fire Billy Napier.

Finishing Drives: There were a lot of reasons why Florida lost this game, but one that they should particularly rue was their inability to finish drives.  In the first half they twice had a 1st and 10 inside USF’s 20-yard line, and once they had a 1st and 10 inside the 30, and all three times Florida ended up settling for a field goal. The hallmark of a winning college football team is that, when they have the opportunity, they go for the jugular. Ironically, the Gators did not. As a direct result, Florida led this game at halftime 9-6 instead of 21-6, and ended up losing. 

Seriously. Fire Billy Napier. 

3) LSU Tigers (2-0, 0-0, +176) - I mentioned this on the podcast last week with Sam, but for some reason there has become this sort of media narrative that the SEC is struggling this season, with key non-conferences losses by Texas, Alabama, and Florida.

But that’s it.  That’s the list.  Outside of those three games, the SEC is 26-0 in non-conference games so far this year.  

LSU beat Louisiana Tech 23-7.  Good for them.  Next week, they open SEC play at home against Florida in the ABC Primetime game of the week.  I expect LSU to be pretty big favorites (I see the Tigers as 6.5 point favorites right now, which strikes me as favorable to Florida), but I look forward to the opportunities for some late-game time management shenanigans between Billy Napier and LSU coach Brian Kelly, who also sucks.  

4) Texas A&M Aggies (2-0, 0-0, +168)

5) North Carolina State Wolfpack (2-0, 0-0, +159) - NC State beat the Virginia Cavaliers 35-31 in a game between two ACC teams that, strangely enough, does not count as an ACC game in the standings. The Wolfpack are part of a big ACC middle class that includes Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, and Pittsburgh, all of whom could realistically make a run for the conference championship just as easily as they could miss out on a bowl game entirely.

Turnovers: One of those ACC teams are the Duke Blue Devils, who are coming off of a 9-win season last year and a Gator Bowl loss to Mississippi.  Duke has high hopes for this year, but lost on Saturday to Illinois 45-19.  Now, that looks like a butt whooping, but the game should have been much closer.  Duke outgained Illinois 438 yards to 419, averaged 6.9 yards per play to Illinois’ 5.7, and was more efficient on their third down conversions.  The difference in the game? Duke turned the ball over 5 times, and Illinois had 0.  

6) Mississippi Rebels (2-0, 1-0, +148) 

7) Florida State Seminoles (2-0, 0-0, +137) 

8) Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0, 0-0, +133) - Ohio State beat FCS Grambling State 70-0.  Good for them.  Now I want to talk about Oregon. 

The Oregon Ducks beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys 69-3 on Saturday in Eugene.  The Ducks are stuck at No. 28 in my rankings, because their two wins are against FCS Montana State and a bad Oklahoma State team. Oregon had 2 touchdowns in their first 3 plays from scrimmage.  They led at halftime 41-3.  They scored Pick Sixes on back-to-back plays in the second half.  They did not score in the 4th Quarter. At one point, Fox Sports put one of the most hilarious stats on the screen that I have ever seen: “Yards per play: Oklahoma State: 1.8, Oregon: 43.3”. This was the second worst loss in Oklahoma State history, the other being a 67-0 loss to Oklahoma on November 9, 1907, which was exactly one week before Oklahoma became a state. 

Having said that - and remember, I am an Oregon Ducks fan - we need to pump the brakes on all this Oregon to the National Championship talk that I’m hearing on Twitter.  Oklahoma State is bad, and they might be really bad.  I have them as the 8th worst Power 4 team in the country, right between Northwestern and UCLA.  Bill Connelly had them at 50th coming into this game, roughly equivalent to Houston, Maryland, or Boston College.  So we knew that this game was going to be one-sided.  Just not this one-sided.  

Oh, and remember what I said about “explosiveness”? In this game, Oregon had 16 explosive plays, 15 in the first three quarters, before they pulled their starters. 

9) Miami Hurricanes (2-0, 0-0, +132) 

10) Houston Cougars (2-0, 0-0, +121)

11) Pittsburgh Panthers (2-0, 0-0, +119) - Pittsburgh took care of business on Saturday, beating Central Michigan 45-17.  Unfortunately for them, their opponents next week, West Virginia, lost to their MAC opponents, the Ohio Bobcats, 17-10.  Therefore, ESPN has pulled GameDay out of Morgantown for next week, and is relocating to Knoxville for the Georgia-Tennessee game. That sucks for Pittsburgh. 

Efficiency: Efficiency can be measured as “yards per play,” but it also means more than that.  Efficiency means a team’s offense is able to gain yards in a constant and consistent manner; if you remember your middle school math, think not just “mean”, but also “median” and “mode”.  During a broadcast, you’ll often hear the announcers talk about a team being “behind the sticks” or “behind schedule”.  That means that they’re playing inefficiently, probably because they just took a sack or ran for a loss (which is bad!). 

Ultimately, efficiency means avoiding third-and-longs, which are the ultimate drive killers.  In their game against Ohio, the Mountaineers were not efficient.  They had 13 first downs compared to 24 for Ohio, and went 2 for 13 on third down conversions.  8 of those 13 attempts were on “3rd and long” defined as 3rd and 7 or longer, but, to be fair, West Virginia went 0 for 3 on 3rd and 2, too. 

12) Tulane Green Wave (2-0, 0-0, +117) 

13) Missouri Tigers (2-0, 0-0, +117)

14) Auburn Tigers (2-0, 0-0, +112)

15) South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0, 0-0, +96)

16) Oklahoma Sooners (2-0, 0-0, +96)  - Oklahoma beat the Michigan Wolverines 24-13 in the ABC Primetime game in a match-up that, to me, was one of two good defenses playing against two not-very-good offenses. Michigan’s much-hyped quarterback, Bryce Underwood, was held to 142 yards passing on 9/24 and 0 touchdowns, and the team ran for 146 yards on 32 carries.  75 of those yards came from 1 run by Justin Haynes, which also accounted for Michigan’s only touchdown of the game.  Without that play, the Wolverines got 67 yards rushing on 31 carries, or 2.1 yards per play.  Explosiveness matters!

17) Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0, 0-0, +89) - In what was probably the most exciting game during the late night slab, Mississippi State outlasted the Arizona State Sun Devils 24-20. ASU had fought back all the way from being down 17-0 to take the lead in the Fourth Quarter, and then Mississippi State quarterback connected with receiver Brenen Thompson for a 58-yard touchdown with thirty seconds left in the game. 

Field Position: Field Position means exactly what it says: The position on the field where your offense starts its drives.  Field Position is mostly a result of special teams play, which people tend to forget is an entire third of the game.

In the first half of the MSU-ASU game, Mississippi State dominated the field position game. All of Arizona State’s drives started deep in their half of the field, with their best starting field position being their own 38.  The Bulldogs, meanwhile, were able to start in ASU’s territory twice, and had two more drives begin outside of their own 40-yard line.  That good field position led directly to 10 points, and turned out to be the difference in the ballgame. 

And I don’t know if this means anything, but we just finished Week Two of the college football season, and 6 of last year’s 12 playoff teams have already lost a game. 

18) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-0, 0-0, +89)

19) Michigan State Spartans (2-0, 0-0, +89)

20) Utah Utes (2-0, 0-0, +88)

21) Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0, 0-0, +86)

22) Maryland Terrapins (2-0, 0-0, +85)

23) TCU Horned Frogs (1-0, 0-0, +84)

24) Tennessee Volunteers (2-0, 0-0, +83)

25) Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-0, 0-0, +83)

Power Rankings

1) Washington (4-0, 1-0, +12) - The top 3 teams in the Pac-12 North all won conference games in convincing fashion in monsoon-type weather conditions.  The Huskies beat previously undefeated Arizona 31-13, with running back Bishop Sankey carrying the load with 40 rushes for 161 yards.  Basically, the weather prevented either team from passing the ball efficiently, and Washington - which had been averaging 574 yards per game - had "only" 409.  Washington will face by far their toughest competition of the season yet next week, when they visit Stanford on The Farm in a Saturday night game.    

2) Alabama (4-0, 2-0, +9) - After an unusually large amount of talk about Alabama being on upset watch, the Tide came out and rolled Mississippi, 25-0.  Alabama's offense took a while to get going, as they led at the half only 9-0.  However, the defense was dominant, forcing three three-and-outs, two takeaways, and three turnovers on downs.  'Bama is now essentially on cruise control until they play LSU in November.  Until then, they play No. 125 Georgia State (0-4), No. 107 Kentucky (1-3), No. 71 Arkansas (3-2), and No. 60 Tennessee (3-2).

3) Georgia (3-1, 2-0, +9) - Georgia beat LSU 44-41 in a game between two top-ten SEC teams that featured 85 points and 943 total yards of offense.  Even with one loss, the Bulldogs are at the top of the rankings with wins over South Carolina and LSU.  They also all ready have the inside track to their second consecutive SEC East title, although there are a lot of "trap" games left on their schedule, including next week at Tennessee, Nov. 2 against Florida, and maybe even at Auburn?

4) Michigan (4-0, 0-0, +8) - Michigan didn't play, which means that they didn't have to worry about getting upset by a team like Akron or Connecticut.  They open Big Ten play next week at home against Minnesota, which just lost to Iowa.  The Wolverines have two more opponents on their schedule in the AP top 25: #16 Northwestern and #4 Ohio State.  With their big win against Notre Dame looking less impressive every week, Michigan will have very little margin of error if they want to secure a BCS at-large bid. 

5) Clemson (4-0, 2-0, +8) - Clemson took care of business, crushing Wake Forest 56-7 and, in my opinion, continue to be the best team in the ACC.  Tajh Boyd threw for 311 yards and 3 TDs, and rushed for 69 more yards and one more TD.  Next week they travel to Syracuse, for what will be the Orange's first conference game as a member of the ACC.  

6) Miami (FL) (4-0, 0-0, +8) - Miami also took care of business, defeating South Florida (one of the worst teams in the FBS this year) 49-21.  Miami is now 3-0 in intrastate games this year, although the big one is Nov. 02 against Florida State.  In the meantime, the Hurricanes start ACC play next week against Georgia Tech.  Also, did you know that, although Oklahoma has played in the Orange Bowl 18 times, and Miami has played in it 9 times, they've only played each other once, a 20-14 win for Miami in 1988 that won them the national championship?

7) Stanford (4-0, 2-0, +7) - Stanford cruised in their second Pac-12 win, 55-17 over Washington State.  Now, they get to prepare to host Washington next week for what will be the biggest Pac-12 game of the season, so far.  My guess is that the Cardinal will try to establish the running game, and use their offensive line to punish Washington's defense.  Against the Cougars - who have definitely been better this year - Stanford had 238 rushing yards on 6 yards per carry.  The impressive part of that stat is that they had 5 different players rush for at least 30 yards, and none for more than 56.  That is sharing the load.

8) UCLA (3-0, 0-0, +6) - I don't think that it's a stretch to imagine that the best part of UCLA's day off was that USC's coach Lane Kiffin was fired after the Trojans lost 62-41 to Arizona State.  Without even playing a game, the Bruins are now tied atop the Pac-12 South, with every other team having at least one loss.  The Bruins open up conference play next week at Utah, and I bet they're thinking that the division is their's to lose.  One reason why?  So far this season, the South Division is 0-4 against the North.

9) Ohio State (5-0, 1-0, +5) - Like Alabama, the Buckeyes were on upset watch playing at home against a good-not-great Wisconsin team and, also like Alabama, they prevailed.  However, what was looking like a blow-out became close in the 4th quarter, when Wisconsin's defense stopped the Buckeyes on three straight possessions, cutting the lead from 31-14 to 31-24 in the process.  However, they couldn't get a first down on their final drive, and eventually turned the ball over on downs.  Things don't get any less interesting for Ohio State, as they travel to Evanston to take on undefeated Northwestern next week.  

10) LSU (4-1, 1-1, +4) - It was a tough loss for LSU at Georgia, especially considering that Zach Mettenberger had a career day with 372 passing yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs in the loss.  In the end, the difference probably was the 4 sacks that LSU allowed, including a huge one on 1st and 10 on their final drive.  The Tigers now have a very steep path to get to the SEC Championship game; they may have to run the table, including winning at Alabama on Nov. 09.  They play next week at Mississippi State.

11) Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0, +4) - Oklahoma is the highest ranked Big 12 team in the AP poll at 11, beneath at least one team from every other AQ conference and 4 SEC teams.  Texas Tech is currently at #20, and, although they're 4-0, this includes wins over the likes of Stephen F. Austin and Texas State.  The Red Raiders host Kansas next week, but probably won't be challenged until back-to-back trips to West Virginia and Oklahoma in October.

12) Northwestern (4-0, 0-0, +4) - Through their first four games, Northwestern has wins against Cal (Pac-12), Syracuse (ACC), Western Michigan (MAC) and Maine (FCS), whereas Ohio State has wins over Cal (Pac-12), San Diego State (MWC), Buffalo (MAC) and Florida A&M (FCS), and yet the Buckeyes are #4 and Northwestern is #16.  Why?  Defense. Ohio State is 18th in the nation by allowing 304 yards per game, whereas Northwestern is 88th, allowing 426 yards per game.  I'll be rooting for the Wildcats next week, but if the Buckeyes blow them out, that's why.  

13) Maryland (4-0, 0-0, +4) - Maryland is the big surprise of the ACC so far, whollaping West Virginia 37-0 last week and sneaking into the AP at number 25 this week.  They'll get their big chance next week when they visit Florida State.

14) Louisville (4-0, 0-0, +4) - Louisville was last seen dismantling 0-4 Florida International 72-0, and will be traveling next week to take on 0-4 Temple.  In fact, the combined records of Louisville's first four FBS opponents is 4-12.  This is why people don't respect you, American Conference.

15) Oregon (4-0, 1-0, +4) - The rain did not slow down the Ducks, who jumped out to a 27-0 first quarter lead over California en route to a 55-16 win.  I wonder if Oregon is ever tempted to score 100 points in a game, not to embarrass their opponents, but just to see if they could do it.  One concern was the severely twisted/possibly broken ankle of De'Anthony Thomas.  However, in his absence, Byron Marshall (130 yards on 19 carries) and Thomas Tyner (94 yards on 13 carries) were able to pick up the load.  DAT could also probably rest next week against Colorado, before the Ducks visit Washington for a big showdown on October 12.

 16) Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0, +4) -Oklahoma looked good in their 35-21 win at Notre Dame, especially their defense, which forced quarterback Tommy Rees into a 9/24, 104 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT day.  The Sooners now look like the class of the Big 12 - especially with Oklahoma State's loss - but we may not know for certain until they visit Baylor and Oklahoma State later in the season. The Sooners are at home next week against TCU before the Red River Rivalry with Texas. 

17) Fresno State (4-0, 2-0, +4)
18) Missouri (4-0, 0-0, +4)
19) Houston (4-0, 2-0, +4)
20) Northern Illinois (4-0, 0-0, +4)

21) Florida State (4-0, 2-0, +4)
22) Baylor (3-0, 0-0, +3)
23) Illinois (3-1, 0-0, +3)
24) Virginia Tech (4-1, 1-0, +3)
25) Iowa (4-1, 1-0, +3)

My Top 25

1) Notre Dame (12-0, 0-0, +20)
2) Florida (11-1, 7-1, +18)  
3) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +17)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Stanford (10-2, 8-1, +17)

6) Georgia (11-1, 7-1, +14)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
9) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)

11) Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Kent State (11-1, 8-0, +9)
14) Florida State (10-2, 7-1, +7)
15) Oregon State (8-3, 6-3, +5)

16) UCLA (9-3, 6-3, +5)
17) Northern Illinois (11-1, 8-0, +5)
18) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
19) Nebraska (10-2, 7-1, +3)
20) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)

21) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1)
22) Rutgers (9-2, 5-1, 0)  
23) Utah State (10-2, 6-0, -1)
24) Texas (8-3, 5-3, -2)
25) Michigan (8-4, 6-2, -2)

Ball State (9-3, 6-2, -2)
Louisville (9-2, 4-2, -3)
Washington (7-5, 5-4, -5)
Arkansas State (8-3, 6-1, -5)
Cincinnati (8-3, 3-2, -5)
Vanderbilt (8-4, 5-3, -5)
Fresno State (9-3, 7-1, -5)
Arizona (7-5, 4-5, -6)
Oklahoma State (7-4, 5-3, -6)
San Diego State (9-3, 7-1, -6)
TCU (7-4, 4-4, -6)
USC (7-5, 5-4, -7)
Toledo (8-3, 5-2, -7)
Middle Tennessee State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Louisiana Tech (9-3, 4-2, -8)
Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5, -8) 
Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4, -8)
Tulsa (9-3, 6-1, -9)
Northwestern (9-3, 5-3, -9)
Penn State (8-4, 6-2, -9)
UCF (8-3, 5-1, -10) 
Louisiana-Monroe (7-4, 5-2, -11)
Syracuse (7-5, 5-2, -11)
Ohio (8-4, 4-4, -12)
Bowling Green (8-4, 6-2, -12)
West Virginia (6-5, 3-5, -12)
Arizona State (7-5, 5-4, -13)
Miami (FL) (7-5, 5-3, -13) 
Brigham Young (7-5, 0-0, -13)
East Carolina (8-4, 7-1, -14)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
North Carolina (8-4, 5-3, -15)
Mississippi (6-6, 3-5, -16)
North Carolina State (7-5, 4-4, -16)
Texas-San Antonio (8-4, 3-3, -16)
Baylor (6-5, 3-5, -16)
Temple (4-7, 2-5, -17)
Iowa State (6-6, 3-6, -17)
Nevada (7-4, 4-3, -17) 
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Western Kentucky (7-5, 4-4, -18) 
Wisconsin (7-5, 4-4, -19)
Missouri (5-7, 2-6, -21)
Pittsburgh (5-6, 2-4, -21)
Duke (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Michigan State (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Georgia Tech (6-6, 5-3, -25)
Tennessee (5-7, 1-7, -25) 
Purdue (6-6, 3-5, -25)
Central Michigan (6-6, 4-4, -25)
Connecticut (5-6, 2-4, -26)
Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4, -27)
Minnesota (6-6, 2-6, -29)
Arkansas (4-8, 2-6, -29)
Rice (5-6, 3-4, -29)
Air Force (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Utah (5-7, 3-6, -30)
SMU (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Wake Forest (5-7, 3-5, -31)
North Texas (4-7, 3-4, -31)
Auburn (3-9, 0-8, -32)
Houston (4-7, 4-4, -33)
Troy (5-7, 3-5, -35)
South Florida (3-8, 1-4, -36)
Marshall (5-7, 4-4, -36)
Miami (OH) (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Buffalo (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Florida Atlantic (3-8, 2-5, -37)
Washington State (3-9, 1-8, -37)
Western Michigan (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Virginia (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Indiana (4-8, 2-6, -39)
Maryland (4-8, 2-6, -39) 
Texas State (3-8, 1-4, -40)
Iowa (4-8, 2-6, -41) 
Wyoming (4-8, 3-5, -42)
California (3-9, 2-7, -39)
New Mexico (4-8, 1-6, -40) 
UAB (3-8, 2-5, -43)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Colorado State (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Florida International (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Memphis (4-8, 4-4, -44)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Kentucky (2-10, 0-8, -47)
Hawaii (2-9, 1-7, -49) 
South Alabama (2-9, 1-6, -50)
Army (2-9, 0-0, -50)
Boston College (2-10, 1-7, -51)  
Colorado (1-11, 1-8, -54)
Illinois (2-10, 0-8, -54)
New Mexico State (1-10, 0-5, -54)
Eastern Michigan (2-10, 1-7, -55)
Tulane (2-10, 2-6, -58)
Akron (1-11, 0-8, -60)
Massachusetts (1-11, 1-7, -61) 
Idaho (1-11, 1-5, -62)
UNLV (2-11, 2-6, -63)
Southern Miss (0-12, 0-8, -68)

My Top 25

1) Notre Dame (11-0, 0-0, +19)
2) Alabama (10-1, 6-1, +16)
3) Georgia (10-1, 7-1, +13)
4) Florida (10-1, 7-1, +14) 
5) Stanford (9-2, 7-1, +14)

6) Oregon (10-1, 7-1, +13)
7) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
8) LSU (9-2, 5-2, +12)
9) Texas A&M (9-2, 5-2, +12)
10) Ohio State (11-0, 7-0, +11)

11) Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1, +9)
12) Florida State (10-1, 7-1, +8)
13) Kent State (10-1, 7-0, +8)
14) Oregon State (8-2, 6-2, +7)
15) South Carolina (9-2, 6-2, +7)

16) Rutgers (9-1, 5-0, +6)  
17) Clemson (10-1, 7-1, +6)
18) UCLA (9-2, 6-2, +6) 
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Northern Illinois (10-1, 7-0, +4)

21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Nebraska (9-2, 6-1, +2)
23) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1)
24) Washington (7-4, 5-3, +1)
25) San Jose State (9-2, 4-1, +1)


Michigan (8-3, 6-1, 0)
Arizona (7-4, 4-4, 0) 
Texas Tech (7-4, 4-4, -2) 
Mississippi State (8-3, 4-3, -2)
Utah State (9-2, 5-0, -2)
Louisiana Tech (9-2, 4-1, -3) Tulsa (9-2, 6-0, -3)
Ball State (8-3, 5-2, -3)
Oklahoma State (7-3, 5-2, -3)
Arkansas State (8-3, 6-1, -5)
USC (7-4, 5-4, -6)
Cincinnati (7-3, 2-2, -6)
Vanderbilt (7-4, 5-3, -6)
Fresno State (8-3, 6-1, -6)
Toledo (8-3, 5-2, -7) 
San Diego State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Middle Tennessee State (7-3, 5-1, -8)
Ohio (8-3, 4-3, -9) 
TCU (6-4, 3-4, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
UCF (8-3, 5-1, -10) 
Northwestern (8-3, 4-3, -10)
Penn State (7-4, 5-2, -10)
Louisiana-Monroe (7-4, 5-2, -11)
Temple (4-6, 2-4, -11)
Syracuse (6-5, 4-2, -12)
Bowling Green (7-4, 5-2, -13)
West Virginia (5-5, 2-5, -13) 
Wisconsin (7-4, 4-3, -13)
Western Kentucky (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Iowa State (4-5, 1-5, -13)
Arizona State (6-5, 4-4, -14)
Miami (FL) (6-5, 4-3, -14) 
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
East Carolina (7-4, 6-1, -15)
Duke (6-5, 3-4, -16) 
North Carolina (7-4, 4-3, -16)
Nevada (7-4, 4-3, -17)
Mississippi (5-6, 2-5, -17)
North Carolina State (6-5, 3-4, -17)
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Texas-San Antonio (7-4, 2-3, -17)
Baylor (5-5, 2-5, -17)
Missouri (5-6, 2-5, -19)
Michigan State (5-6, 2-5, -23)
Minnesota (6-5, 2-5, -23)
Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4, -24)
Air Force (6-5, 5-2, -24)
Georgia Tech (6-5, 5-3, -24)
Wake Forest (5-6, 3-5, -25)
Tennessee (4-7, 0-7, -26) 
Purdue (5-6, 2-5, -26)
Central Michigan (5-6, 3-4, -26)
Arkansas (4-7, 2-5, -27) 
Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4, -27)
Connecticut (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Troy (5-6, 3-4, -29)
Rice (5-6, 3-4, -29)
South Florida (3-7, 1-3, -30)
Marshall (5-6, 4-3, -30)
Utah (4-7, 2-6, -31)
Miami (OH) (4-7, 3-4, -31)
North Texas (4-7, 3-4, -31)
SMU (5-6, 4-3, -31)
Auburn (3-8, 0-7, -31)
Buffalo (4-7, 3-4, -31)
Houston (4-7, 4-4, -33)
Indiana (4-7, 2-5, -33)
Maryland (4-7, 2-5, -33) 
Texas State (3-7, 1-3, -34)
Iowa (4-7, 2-5, -36) 
Wyoming (4-7, 3-4, -36)
Florida Atlantic (3-8, 2-5, -37)
Western Michigan (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Virginia (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Washington State (2-9, 0-8, -39) 
California (3-9, 2-7, -39)
New Mexico (4-8, 1-6, -40) 
Kentucky (2-9, 0-7, -41)
UAB (3-8, 2-5, -43)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Colorado State (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Florida International (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Boston College (2-9, 1-6, -45) 
Memphis (3-8, 3-4, -45)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46) 
Colorado (1-10, 1-7, -48)
Illinois (2-9, 0-7, -48)
New Mexico State (1-9, 0-5, -48)
Hawaii (1-9, 0-5, -50) 
South Alabama (2-9, 1-6, -50)
Army (2-9, 0-0, -50)
Tulane (2-9, 2-7, -52)
Eastern Michigan (2-9, 1-6, -51)
Akron (1-10, 0-7, -54)
Massachusetts (1-10, 1-6, -55)
Idaho (1-10, 1-4, -56)
Southern Miss (0-10, 0-6, -56)
UNLV (2-10, 2-5, -57)

SEC 2012 Predictions

East:

Georgia (10-2, 6-2) - Capital One
South Carolina (9-3, 6-2) - Cotton
Florida (8-4, 5-3) - Gator
Vanderbilt (7-5, 5-3) - Music City
Tennessee (6-6, 3-5) - Independence
Missouri (5-7, 3-5)
Kentucky (3-9, 1-7)

West:

Alabama (11-1, 7-1) - BCS
LSU (10-2, 6-2) - Sugar
Mississippi St. (9-3, 5-3) - Outback
Arkansas (8-4, 4-4) - Chik-fil-A
Auburn (6-6, 2-6) - Liberty
Ole Miss (5-7, 2-6)
Texas A&M (4-8, 1-7)

Conference Championship: Alabama def. Georgia

1) LSU will beat Alabama, but will lose two other SEC games.  I'm thinking at Florida and at Arkansas.

2) The two new squads, Texas A&M and Missouri, will have a hard time adjusting, and both will miss the postseason.  The Aggies only conference win will be at home, against Mizzou.  

3) Vandy will not only make another bowl game, but they will even end the season with a winning conference record. 

Introducing The Big-Mac Sun Wac Mountain East West Conference USA

East Division:
Cincinnati
Louisville
Rutgers
Connecticut
South Florida
UCF

West Division:
Boise State
San Diego State
Air Force
Colorado State
Nevada
Hawaii

South Division:
Houston
SMU
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Tulsa
East Carolina

North Division:
Ohio
Temple
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Army
Navy

The season would consist of 3 non-conference games, followed by an 8-game conference schedule, playing every other team in your division plus one team each from the other three divisions. Game 12 is a seeded 1-4 semifinal featuring the four division champs, and Game 13 is the conference championship.

Winner plays the 8th seed SEC team in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl!

My Top 25

1) LSU (12-0, 8-0, +31)
2) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +18)
3) Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1, +13)
4) Stanford (11-1, 8-1, +13)
5) Oregon (10-2, 8-1, +13)
6) Arkansas (10-2, 6-2, +12)
7) Houston (12-0, 8-0, +12)
8) Michigan State (10-2, 7-1, +10)
9) Virginia Tech (11-1, 7-1, +8)
10) Boise State (10-1, 5-1, +8)
11) Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2, +8)
12) Kansas State (9-2, 6-2, +9)
13) USC (10-2, 7-2, +8)
14) Wisconsin (10-2, 6-2, +6)
15) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +4)
16) Georgia (10-2, 7-1, +5)
17) Michigan (10-2, 6-2, +3)
18) Baylor (8-3, 5-3, +5)
19) TCU (9-2, 7-0, +3)
20) Nebraska (9-3, 5-3, +4)
21) Penn State (9-3, 6-2, +1)
22) Southern Miss (10-2, 6-2, -1)
23) Clemson (9-3, 6-2, -3)
24) West Virginia (8-3, 4-2, -5)
25) Texas (7-4, 4-4, -3)

Georgia Tech (8-4, 5-3, -6)
Notre Dame (8-4, 0-0, -6)
Northern Illinois (9-3, 7-1, -6)
Brigham Young (8-3, 0-0, -7)
Cincinnati (8-3, 4-2, -10)

Friday Night Lights

Colorado 17, Utah 14: This is one of those toilet bowl games, those cringe-inducing, bile rising games in which you find yourself shouting at the television, "Doesn't anyone want to bleeping win this game??" This one had it all: Turnovers. Penalties. Turnovers getting negated by penalties. Utah's kicker going 0 for 3 on field goals, including hitting the right upright with what would have been the tying score on Utah's last play of the game. But what makes it all worse is that this now guarantees that UCLA - 6-5 UCLA - will represent the South Division in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship game. UCLA, who lost to Texas 49-20, now gets a winner-take-all for the Rose Bowl.

LSU 41, Arkansas 17: @aaroninauburn had by far the best take on the Tigers today on Twitter: "LSU's ability to eat the other team's soul is unparalleled in my memory." That is exactly what they did against the Razorbacks, falling behind 14-0 before buckling down, Badgering up, and putting the clamps on the Arkansas offense. After the Razorbacks drove 73 yards and kicked a field goal in their first drive of the third quarter, they gained a grand total of 27 yards (with two turnovers) for the rest of the game. Also, add this to the highlight reel:



Now, let's talk implications.

The SEC Championship is set: AP #1 LSU against #13 Georgia. Even if the Bulldogs pull off the upset, I think that LSU's spot in the NC game has been secured. With their resume, a one-loss LSU team would still be heads and shoulders above the rest of the crowd. Our attentions now turn to tomorrow's Iron Bowl. Should #2 Alabama beat Auburn, then (barring a mass mutiny among the voters) the NC game would be set between Alabama and LSU. But if - and it's a BIG if - Auburn should pull off the upset, then that re-opens the door for Oklahoma State, who would surely jump ahead of the rest of the crowd with a win over Oklahoma. Behind the Cowboys would stand Virginia Tech and Stanford, but both of those teams would have a tough argument, given their paper-thin schedules.

And, sadly, thanks to sanctions, scheduling, tie-breaker rules, and an absolute dearth of talent, the UCLA Bruins will play for the Pac-12 Championship. As I've said before, the Ducks will be their opponents should Oregon beat Oregon State tomorrow. Otherwise the Bruins will play Stanford. And even though they will be a bajillion-point underdogs against either of those teams, remember, it's just one game. And anything can happen.

Power Rankings

1) LSU Tigers (11-0, 7-0) - Les Miles has the Tigers on the verge of their third national championship in eight years, an impressive feat for any program. LSU's only previous championship came in 1958. The Tigers did not begin the season ranked, but reached No. 1 on Oct. 25, after a 10-7 win over Florida. LSU finished the season 11-0, and went on to defeat #12 Clemson 7-0 in the Sugar Bowl to claim both the AP and Coach's championships.

2) Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1, 6-1) - Should the Iron Bowl be considered the best rivalry in college football? I think so, if you add the caveat "today" to the end. This year will mark the third consecutive year in which the game will carry BCS implications, and the last two years the winner of the game has actually gone on to win the national championship. However, this period still probably doesn't compare to the "glory days" of the Iron Bowl, from 1981-1986, when the game was decided on the last play four times.

3) Arkansas Razorbacks (10-1, 6-1)

4) Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1, 7-1)

5) Stanford Cardinal (10-1, 8-1) - The Notre Dame Fighting Irish played in their first ever bowl game on January 1, 1925, in the 11th Rose Bowl against the Stanford Indians. Stanford was 7-0-1, and coached by Glenn "Pop" Warner, and the Irish were 9-0, coached by Knute Rockne, and featured the "Four Horsemen" running backs. Legend goes that it was during Rockne's trip to Pasadena that his wife dined with the wife of USC's athletic director Gwynn Wilson, and the two women got to talking about how much lovelier Southern California was in the winter than South Bend, and thus was born the annual tradition of the Notre Dame-USC rivalry. The game itself was dominated by Stanford, but three turnovers led to 21 Irish points, and Notre Dame pulled away for the win, 27-10. Stanford would not have to wait long, though, winning their first ever Rose Bowl 7-6 over Pittsburgh three years later.

6) Oregon Ducks (9-2, 7-1) - Saturday will mark the third consecutive season in which the Oregon-Oregon State Civil War Game will decide some kind of championship, conference or division. In honor of this, and in the general spirit of Thanksgiving, we should all take a moment to remember the 1983 Civil War Game. On a cold and rainy day in Eugene in November, the Ducks and the Beavers played to the last 0-0 tie in NCAA history, a game in which the teams combined for eleven fumbles, five interceptions, and four missed field goals.


7) Houston Cougars (11-0, 7-0)

8) Boise State Broncos (9-1, 4-1) - It was this weekend last year that Boise State's BCS hopes went down in a 34-31 overtime loss to the Nevada Wolfpack. Boise State's rivalry with Nevada goes back to 1971, when the Broncos were in the Big Sky conference and Nevada was an independent. Unfortunately, this rivalry may be in jeopardy in the future, as the Broncos consider a move to the Big East while the WAC and the Mountain West continue to struggle for survival.

9) Michigan State Spartans (9-2, 6-1)

10) Kansas State Wildcats (9-2, 6-2)

11) Virginia Tech Hokies (10-1, 7-1)

12) Oklahoma Sooners (8-2, 5-2) - There may be no program more decorated or celebrated than Oklahoma, who has the most weeks at No. 1 in the AP poll, the 8th most wins of any program in college football, and has appeared in 44 bowl games. Oklahoma football, in fact, is 12 years older than the state of Oklahoma. The second coach for the Oklahoma Sooners was Vernon Parrington, an English professor and Pulitzer Prize winner who brought superior tactics with him from Harvard that led the Sooners to a 9-2-1 record from 1897 to 1900. My favorite quote from Coach Parrington? After being chased out of Oklahoma to U of W for his liberalism:

With every passing year my radicalism draws fresh nourishment from large knowledge of the evils of private capitalism. Hatred of that selfish system is become the chief passion of my life. The change from Oklahoma to Washington marks the shift with me from the older cultural interpretation of life to the later economic.

13) USC Trojans (9-2, 6-2)

14) Wisconsin Badgers (9-2, 5-2) - The Badgers are two wins away from earning their second consecutive trip to the Rose Bowl, a feat that they last accomplished during the 1998-1999 seasons, under coach Barry Alvarez. Wisconsin is 3-4 all time in the Rose Bowl, with their last win coming after the 1999 season, a 17-9 win over Stanford. That game featured Heisman Trophy winning running back Ron Dayne, who rushed for over 200 yards in the game, including a 64-yard run on a scoring drive in the third quarter that gave Wisconsin the lead for good.

15) Georgia Bulldogs (9-2, 7-1) - Saturday will be either the 104th or 106th game between Georgia and Georgia Tech, depending on who you ask. Their first match was on November 4, 1893, a 28-6 win for visiting Tech. According to historian Bill Cromartie:

At one time early in the last half of the game, a stone was hurled at one of the Tech players, striking him a cruel blow in the head... At another time, one of the Athenians drew a knife and threatened one of the Techs' better players... The Techs were also poked and gouged with canes on plays toward the boundary lines... Some of the crowd had the privilege of the gridiron equally with the players.

16) Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2, 6-1)

17) TCU Horned Frogs (9-2, 7-0) - TCU won its first of two national championships after the 1935 season. The Frogs finished the season 11-1, their only loss 20-14 to undefeated Southern Methodist. They ended the season ranked fourth, and played #1 LSU in the Sugar Bowl. Rain had fallen in New Orleans for three days before New Year's, and the game turned into a mud-filled slugfest in the rain. Neither team gained more than 200 yards, and there were a combined seven turnovers. The Frogs' defense were the stars of the game, three times stopping the Tigers in the Red Zone, forcing them to come away with 0 points. TCU would win the game 3-2. With #2 SMU losing to Stanford 7-0 in the Rose Bowl, TCU claimed a championship by ending first in the now defunct Williamson Rankings.

18) Michigan Wolverines (9-2, 5-2)

19) South Carolina Gamecocks (9-2, 6-2) - The Battle of the Palmetto State dates back to 1896, a 12-6 victory for South Carolina over Clemson. However, the rivalry between the Gamecocks and the Tigers has been about more than just football. Clemson was founded in 1889 to provide a higher education option for the sons of poor farmers who could not get into South Carolina, which, along with banning women and African Americans after Reconstruction ended in 1877, had a student body that was overwhelmingly the sons of Confederate officers. South Carolina would continue to be the university of the state's privileged until after World War Two. Under pressure to accept veterans regardless of class or race, South Carolina opened its doors to a broad population, whereas Clemson began to be the more restrictive of the two schools; the first African American student to enroll at Clemson was in 1963.

20) Clemson Tigers (9-2, 6-2) - John Heisman coached Clemson from 1900-1903, amassing a 19-3-2 record, two conference championships, and gave the team their name (either after Heisman's previous employer, Auburn, or the current national champions, Princeton). However, he was never able to claim a national championship. Clemson's only national championship came in 1981, after an 11-0 record and 22-15 win over #4 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl.

21) Baylor Bears (7-3, 4-3)

22) Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-3, 4-3) - During the Great Depression, part of the WPA - that great endeavor by Washington D.C. to get Americans back to work - was the federal writers project, which compiled invaluable local histories, oral histories, and ethnographies from all 48 American states. Regarding Nebraska football, the FWP recorded:

Football in Nebraska is more than a diversion for college students. A State university game is an event talked about and eagerly followed by rural and urban fans. If the day of a football game is not too cold or rainy, the streets of Lincoln are sure to be jammed with people and cars, brightened with pennants and chrysanthemums. The highways are crowded for miles around. Broadcasts of games are picked up in almost every store and gas station from Omaha to the western border; farmers sometimes neglect their cornhusking in the afternoon to hear the game over the radio.

23) Southern Miss Golden Eagles (9-2, 5-2)

24) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-3, 5-3) - Georgia Tech still holds the record for most dominant victory in college football history, a 222-0 win over Cumberland College in 1916. The story goes that, before the season, Cumberland College had officially ended their football program, and asked Georgia Tech to cancel their previously scheduled game. However, John Heisman, Georgia Tech's coach, refused Cumberland's request. Heisman was out for revenge for the baseball team's 22-0 loss to Cumberland the spring before, in which (according to Heisman) Cumberland had used professional players. The game went on as scheduled, with Cumberland fielding a team of student volunteers. Georgia Tech scored 16 touchdowns in the game (also a record) and never got a first down, as they scored from scrimmage on almost every snap.

25) Auburn Tigers (7-4, 4-2) - Despite beginning their rivalry in 1893, the Alabama Crimson Tide never played in Jordan-Hare Stadium, or in the town of Auburn, Alabama, until December 2, 1989. It was on this day that the No. 11 Tigers hosted the No. 2 Tide, with the SEC Championship on the line. Auburn jumped out to a 27-10 lead, and managed to hold on for the win, 30-20. Alabama would proceed from this game to lose to #2 Miami in the Sugar Bowl, while Auburn would defeat #21 Ohio State in the Hall of Fame Bowl.

My Top 25

Fine! You can have your all-SEC championship! We didn't want to come any way! Poopheads!

1) LSU (11-0, 7-0, +25)
2) Alabama (10-1, 6-1, +16)
3) Arkansas (10-1, 6-1, +13)
4) Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1, +13)
5) Stanford (10-1, 8-1, +12)
6) Oregon (9-2, 7-1, +12)
7) Houston (11-0, 7-0, +11)
8) Boise State (9-1, 4-1, +7)
9) Michigan State (9-2, 6-1, +9)
10) Kansas State (9-2, 6-2, +9)
11) Virginia Tech (10-1, 7-1, +7)
12) Oklahoma (8-2, 5-2, +7)
13) USC (9-2, 6-2, +7)
14) Wisconsin (9-2, 5-2, +3)
15) Georgia (9-2, 7-1, +3)
16) Penn State (9-2, 6-1, +4)
17) TCU (9-2, 7-0, +3)
18) Michigan (9-2, 5-2, +2)
19) South Carolina (9-2, 6-2, +1)
20)Clemson (9-2, 6-2, +1)
21) Baylor (7-3, 4-3, +4)
22) Nebraska (8-3, 4-3, +3)
23) Southern Miss (9-2, 5-2, -2)
24) Georgia Tech (8-3, 5-3, -3)
25) Auburn (7-4, 4-2, -4)

Notre Dame (8-3, 0-0, -5)
West Virginia (7-3, 3-2, -6)
Rutgers (8-3, 4-2, -7)
Brigham Young (8-3, 0-0, -7)
Virginia (8-3, 5-2, -9)
Northern Illinois (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Iowa (7-4, 4-3, -13)
Utah (7-4, 4-4, -15)

Power Rankings

1) LSU Tigers (10-0, 6-0) - With Boise State and Stanford losing last night, the calls are growing louder for a BCS Championship rematch: Either LSU-Alabama or LSU-Oregon. I'm opposed to this, but we're fast running out of other options. The most likely is to revert to the idea that the winner of Oklahoma-Oklahoma State gets the other spot in the championship game, but if the Sooners win out, then we get the unpalatable notion of having a team that lost to 5-5 Texas Tech in the NC game.

2) Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-0, 7-0) - Hopefully, OK-State will end the season undefeated, and save us the trouble of picking from a host of one-loss teams to play LSU. When I turned on the TV yesterday morning, the Cowboys were already up on Texas Tech - that 5-5 team that beat Oklahoma - 42-0... in the second quarter. They went on to win 66-6, with Brandon Weeden going 31 for 37 for 423 yards and 5 TDs. At what point are the Cowboys considered the favorites against Oklahoma?

3) Oregon Ducks (9-1, 7-0) - I've gotten most of my predictions wrong this season (See: Boise State will play for a championship, or Alabama will beat LSU.) But I'm glad that I went against the tide and picked my Ducks to win this game. Stanford's defense had shown weaknesses against USC, Washington, and Oregon State, and last night Oregon was able to take advantage, averaging 5.0 yards per rush and LaMichael James run for 146 yards and 3 touchdowns. The real difference, though, was Oregon's

My Top 25

1) LSU (10-0, 6-0, +24)
2) Oklahoma State (10-0, 7-0, +19)
3) Oregon (9-1, 7-0, +16)
4) Alabama (9-1, 6-1, +15)
5 ) Oklahoma (8-1, 5-1, +13)
6) Arkansas (9-1, 5-1, +12)
7) Stanford ( 9-1, 7-1, +11)
8 ) Houston (10-0, 6-0, +10)
9) Clemson (9-1, 6-1, +7)
10) Boise State (8-1, 3-1, +6)
11) Michigan State (8-2, 5-1, +8)
12) Virginia Tech (9-1, 6-1, +6)
13) Southern Miss ( 9-1, 5-1, +4)
14) Nebraska (8-2, 4-2, +8)
15) Kansas State (8-2, 5-2, +7)
16) Wisconsin (8-2, 4-2, +2)
17) Georgia (8-2, 6-1, +2)
18) Penn State (8-2, 5-1, +3)
19 ) TCU (8-2, 6-0, +2)
20) USC (8-2, 5-2, +1)
21) South Carolina (8-2, 6-2, 0)
22) West Virginia (7-2, 3-1, 0)
23) Michigan (8-2, 4-2, -2)
24) Cincinnati (7-2, 3-1, -5)
25) Texas (6-3, 3-3, -1)

West Virginia (7-3, 3-2, -3)
Georgia Tech (7-3, 4-3, -4)
Notre Dame (7-3, 0-0, -6)
Florida State (7-3, 4-2, -6)
Virginia (7-3, 5-2, -8)
Brigham Young (7-3, 0-0, -8)

Power Rankings 11/05

1) LSU Tigers (9-0, 6-0) - Well, I underestimated LSU's defense. I'm sorry. I owe them an apology, especially defensive back Eric Reid, whose interception inside the red zone probably prevented what would have been the only touchdown of the game. The Tigers get a bye week next week against Western Kentucky before taking a trip to Mississippi. Trap game? Not likely. Last Week: #1. Next Game: vs. Western Kentucky

2) Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-0, 6-0) Last Week: #3. Next Game: at Texas Tech

3) Stanford Cardinal (9-0, 7-0) - Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy. The Pac-12 game of the week is next week, when Stanford hosts Oregon. Both teams have had trouble defending the run lately, and the could portend a final combined score closer to 100 than to 50. Stanford has a little secret weapon named Andrew Luck, though, and his 26-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio on the year. Oregon's Darron Thomas isn't much worse though, with a ratio of 19-to-5. I guess I'm saying that I think turnovers might be the difference in this game. Last Week: #4. Next Game: vs. #7 Oregon.

4) Boise State Broncos (8-0, 3-0) - I'm always the first one to get to the BSU party, and the last one to leave. Both the AP and the Coaches have one-loss Alabama ahead of the Broncos, but not me. This is Boise State's year, I'm telling you; Oklahoma's gonna beat OSU, and Stanford will lose to the Ducks. Then the voters will have only LSU and Boise State left, at the end of the day. Or, we could just have Boise State beat Alabama 31-10 in the Sugar Bowl. I'm cool with that, too. Last Week: #5. Next Game: vs. #23 TCU

5) Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1, 5-1) - This is becoming my theme for the season: In order to be happy, says Aristotle, man must also be lucky. Alabama went 2 for 6 on field goals in their 9-6 overtime loss to LSU, and only one of those kicks was blocked. The Tide have two more tough road games ahead of them, at Mississippi State and at Auburn. They will now need a lot of help to get to the SEC championship game. Last Week: #2 Next Game: at Mississippi State

6) Oklahoma Sooners (8-1, 5-1) - The Sooners looked pretty scary/good taking apart Texas A&M 41-25, especially in forcing Aggies QB Ryan Tannehill into completing "only" 32 passes in 63 attempts and throwing 3 interceptions. Oklahoma will miss another Ryan, WR Ryan Broyles, who tore his ACL in his left knee. Oklahoma finishes the season at Baylor, home against Iowa State, and then at Oklahoma State for Bedlam. Last Week: #7 Next Game: at Baylor

7) Oregon Ducks (8-1, 6-0) - Maybe for the first time this year, I felt like the Ducks were playing to their full potential in the third quarter against Washington. Their hurry-up offense, their bend-don't-break defense, their fashion sense; all of it seemed to be working for them. Most importantly, their running backs all seemed at full strength, and that should give the Ducks some confidence going in to Palo Alto next week. Last Week: #8 Next Game: at #3 Stanford

8) Arkansas Razorbacks (8-1, 4-1) - After two sloppy wins, the Razorbacks looked good in their 44-28 win against South Carolina. They are also LSU's last obstacle, as they visit Baton Rouge on Nov. 25th for their season finale. Believe it or not, Arkansas can still win the SEC West if they win out, and maybe get some help from the voters. Now wouldn't that just spoil everyone's prefabricated narratives? Last Week: #9 Next Game: vs. Tennessee

9) Houston Cougars (9-0, 5-0) - Sorry, Cougars. After a month of stubbornly keeping them high in my rankings, I can no longer justify keeping them above the top bevy of 1-loss teams. I decided this after realizing that Louisiana-Lafayette is 8-2, and who in their right mind would have them in the top 25? I'm keeping Boise State high because I honestly believe that they could beat Oklahoma or Stanford or Alabama. But could a team like Houston hang with a team like Oregon? No. Last Week: #6 Next Game: at Tulane

10) Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1, 5-0) - OK, I am now selling on Penn State. Please read this column from the Philadelphia Inquirer. The sports that we love can inspire us and fill us with joy. But they also make people lots of money, and therefore people are willing to commit the worst of sins for the sake of sports. Last Week: #13 Next Game: vs. #20 Nebraska

11) Clemson Tigers (8-1, 5-1) Last Week: #11 Next Game: vs. Wake Forest

12) Michigan State Spartans (7-2, 4-1) - This needs some explaining. Michigan State gets such a big boost not for beating lowly Minnesota but because: a) Nebraska's loss breaks their tie in the "Legends" division, b) Wisconsin won, and Michigan State has to stay ahead of them, and c) there needs to be some space between Clemson and Virginia Tech, because Clemson beat VT 23-3. Still, this is probably too high for the 2-loss Spartans. Last Week: #19 Next Game: at Iowa

13) Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1, 5-1) - I'm not quite sure what to do here. Virginia Tech has only one loss, but that was a 23-3 drubbing at home at the hands of Clemson. Also, VT's best win so far is probably against Wake Forest. All in all, the Hokies play what I think is one of the easiest schedules in college football; they played 0 games against non-conference opponents from a BCS conference, and play a grand total of 2 games against AP Top 25 teams. (No. 9 Clemson, and No. 20 Georgia Tech, next week.) And yet this team could very easily be going to the Orange Bowl. Again. Last Week: #14 Next Game: at Georgia Tech

14) Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1, 3-0) - My father-in-law went to med school at Cincinnati, and they just beat Pitt, where his father went to med school, 26-23. He sometimes calls me after he watches the Ducks play, and makes fun of their uniforms, or their propensity for getting arrested going 180 miles per hour down I-5. The point is, someone is going to win the Big East, and that someone will get to go to a BCS bowl. Maybe it will be Cincinnati. Last Week: #18 Next Game: vs. West Virginia

15) Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-1, 4-1) Last Week: #16 Next Game: vs. UCF

16) Kansas State Wildcats (7-2, 4-2) - That game almost broke my heart. A week after getting their butt's kicked by Oklahoma, the Fighting Snyders come out and play like champions against OK-State, losing 52-45 on three consecutive incomplete passes into the end zone. All is not lost in Manhattan, but here is another sad cruelty about college football: Two weeks ago, the Wildcats were entertaining national championship aspirations. Today, they're hoping that they get an invitation to the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Last Week: #12 Next Game: vs. Texas A&M

17) Texas Longhorns (6-2, 3-2) Last Week: #20 Next Game: at Missouri

18) Wisconsin Badgers (7-2, 3-2) - Poor Wisconsin, poor Wisconsin. The Badgers are two plays away from being in line to play for the national championship. As it stands, however, they'll have a tough time even making it to the Big Ten Championship. To do so, they need to win out (against Minnesota, Illinois, and Penn State), and have Penn State lose at least one other game (to either Nebraska or Ohio State), and have Ohio State lose at least once more (to Purdue, Penn State, or Michigan). Is there any way for both Penn State and Ohio State to lose when they play each other Nov. 19? That would be good for the Badgers. Last Week: #21 Next Game: at Minnesota

19) Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, 5-1) - South Carolina's loss is Georgia's win, who are now alone in first place in the SEC East. And what happens when the Bulldogs pull off the upset-of-the-century against LSU in the SEC Championship game? Or even when Les Miles needs one of his patented "acts of God" to escape with a 28-27 win? Against a team that lost to Boise State in Atlanta by two touchdowns? Are you still going to want your LSU-Alabama rematch then? (Yeah, you probably will... ) Last Week: #23 Next Game: vs. #25 Auburn

20) Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2, 3-2) - Sorry, Nebraska fans, but I love that the Cornhuskers lost at home to Northwestern, 28-25. That game had all that I love in a college football game: Underdog coming up big on the road, back-up quarterback leading his team down the stretch, hilarious pictures of despondent home team fans. Onside kicks. An added bonus is the fact that this game has thrown the Big Ten into total chaos, and has more or less ended Nebraska's BCS chances. (Not entirely, though. Something tells me that there's still a lot of chaos to be had.) Last Week: #10 Next Game: at #10 Penn State

21) USC Trojans (7-2, 4-2) - Remember when Colorado use to have a football team? They're 1-9 this year, with losses including: 42-17 to USC, 48-14 to Arizona State, 45-2 to Oregon, 48-7 to Stanford, 52-24 to Washington. Sometimes consistency is not a good thing. Still plenty of time for the Buffaloes to ruin UCLA's or Utah's seasons, though! Matt Barkley's stat line against Colorado: 25 for 39, 318 yards, 6 TDs. Last Week: #25 Next Game: vs. Washington

22) South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2, 5-2) - I think that it has become painfully clear that the most damaging injury in college football has been Marcus Lattimore's torn knee ligament. Without him, South Carolina becomes a one-dimensional team on offense. It's also telling that an Arkansas team that only scored 14 points against Alabama hung 44 on South Carolina. There is still an achievement gap there. Last Week: #15 Next Game: vs. Florida

23) TCU Horned Frogs (7-2, 5-0) - Welcome back from the desert, Horned Frogs! And you're just in time for your showdown against Boise State! I'm not entirely crazy with this pick, as TCU sits just outside of the AP top 25 with 52 voter points. And look at their schedule: Their two losses are 50-48 to Baylor and 40-33 to SMU. And they have wins against Air Force, Brigham Young, and a pretty good Wyoming team. Their schedule has seven bowl eligible teams on it. But make no doubt about it - this is not last year's Rose Bowl squad. Case in point: Wyoming's 353 total yards. Also, Wyoming has a back-up quarterback named Colby Kirkegaard. That's cool. Last Week: NR Next Game: at #4 Boise State

24) Michigan Wolverines (7-2, 3-2) - Here's a nightmare scenario for you: Michigan beats Illinois (next week) and upsets Nebraska (on the 19th). Ohio State wins at Purdue and at home against Penn State. Penn State loses to Nebraska and Ohio State before rebounding to beat Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Michigan State tanks, losing at Iowa and at Northwestern. The Buckeyes then go into Ann Arbor on November 26th, with a winner-take-all trip to the Big Ten championship game on the line. Improbable? Yes. Impossible? No. Last Week: #17 Next Game: at Illinois

25) Auburn Tigers (6-3, 4-2) - Last Week: NR Next Game: at #19 Georgia

My Top 25

1) LSU (8-0, 5-0, +17)
2) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +15)
3) Oklahoma State (8-0, 5-0, +14)
4) Stanford (8-0, 6-0, +12)
5) Boise State (7-0, 2-0, +9)
6) Houston (8-0, 4-0, +8)
7) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +12)
8) Oregon (7-1, 5-0, +8)
9) Arkansas (7-1, 3-1, +7)
10) Nebraska (7-1, 3-1, +9)
11) Clemson (8-1, 5-1, +6)
12) Kansas State (7-1, 4-1, +7)
13) Penn State (8-1, 5-0, +7)
14) Virginia Tech (8-1, 4-1, +5)
15) South Carolina (7-1, 5-1, +1)
16) Southern Miss (7-1, 3-1, +2)
17) Michigan (7-1, 3-1, +1)
18) Cincinnati (6-1, 2-0, 0)
19) Michigan State (6-2, 3-1, +6)
20) Texas (5-2, 2-2, +4)
21) Wisconsin (6-2, 2-2, 0)
22) Washington (6-2, 4-1, +1)
23) Georgia (6-2, 5-1, -1)
24) Arizona State (6-2, 4-1, -1)
25) USC (6-2, 3-2, -1)

Georgia Tech (7-2, 4-2, -1)
West Virginia (6-2, 2-1, -1)
TCU (6-2, 4-0, -5)
Auburn (6-3, 4-2, -1)
Texas A&M (5-3, 3-2, -4)
Texas Tech (5 -3, 2-3, -5)
Illinois (6-3, 2-3, -7)
Notre Dame (5-3, 0-0, -8)
Florida State (5-3, 2-2, -8)
Syracuse (5-3, 1-2, -9)
Brigham Young (6-3, 0-0, -9)
Iowa (6-3, 2-2, -12)