This is nonsense.
Last week, the six BCS computers ranked Oregon: 5, 3, 5, 7, 4, 4. (Avg: 4.67)
The same computers ranked Oklahoma: 4, 5, 3, 4, 6, 5. (Avg: 4.5)
Then Oregon lost to 9-2 USC 38-35, and Oklahoma lost to 7-3 Baylor 45-38.
This week, the computers have Oregon: 15, 6, 12, 13, 9, 10. (Avg: 10.83)
The same computers have Oklahoma: 6, 8, 4, 6, 6, 6. (Avg: 6.0)
What? In what world does this make sense? Why on Earth is Oregon dropped six spots by the computers for a loss to USC, but Oklahoma is only dropped 2 for a loss to Baylor?????
Actually, I know the answer. It's because the computers love the Big 12. That's because the Big 12 went 27-3 in non conference play this season. (The Pac-12 has gone 21-12.) Five of the computers still have Oklahoma State #2, and five of them also have Kansas State ranked ahead of Oregon. It would be interesting to see if the computers actually ending up vetoing an all SEC Championship by putting Oklahoma State ahead of everyone else.
Fine. But Oregon's losses are to LSU and USC. Oklahoma's are to Texas Tech and Baylor. Oregon's best win is against Stanford, Oklahoma's is against Kansas State. And one computer has Oklahoma 6th and Oregon 15th.
Showing posts with label BCS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BCS. Show all posts
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Saturday, December 11, 2010
5 Reasons Why Auburn Will Win the BCS Championship
1) Cam Newton is the most dominant player in the country - This is not exactly a revelation. Newton leads the SEC in passing efficiency, rushing yards per game, total offense per game, and points. In the SEC Championship game, South Carolina's defense sold out to try and stop Newton running, and got burned in the air to the tune of 355 yards and four touchdowns. He's big and he's fast, and will be able to go around, over, and through anyone on Oregon's defense.
2) Auburn's offensive line will control the game - The average weight for an Auburn offensive line man is 301 lbs., compared to 246 lbs. for the average Oregon defensive line man. Behind this line, Newton will be able to maintain possession and control the tempo of the game. The blueprint for beating the Ducks is simple enough: Keep their offense off of the field. Auburn can and will do that.
3) Auburn's defense will contain the Ducks running game - The big question mark for Auburn going to the championship game is their defense, which has given up more than 30 points four times this season, not including 26 to lowly Arkansas State and 24 to even lowlier Chattanooga. But the Tigers' defensive backs are faster than anyone else the Ducks have faced this season. They will be fast enough to meet the Ducks' running backs at the ends, and will force to Oregon to become a passing team to generate any offense. And that's when Oregon will start making mistakes.
4) The Ducks will make mistakes - Oregon is 48th in the nation in turnovers, with 22, and 17th in penalties, with 95 for a total of 815 yards. In addition, Auburn's defense is one of the best at causing turnovers, forcing an opponent's turnover in 12.5 percent of all possessions this season. Against weaker teams, Oregon was able to compensate for those mistakes and make comebacks in the second half. They won't be able to do that against Auburn.
5) It's the SEC, Jack - There's a reason why Les Miles said that the SEC champion should automatically get to go to the BCS Championship game. In the last four games, the SEC has outscored their opponents 160-73. The conference simply plays better football than anyone else in the country, and that trend will continue this year once again.
(Next Time... 5 Reasons Why Oregon Will Win)
2) Auburn's offensive line will control the game - The average weight for an Auburn offensive line man is 301 lbs., compared to 246 lbs. for the average Oregon defensive line man. Behind this line, Newton will be able to maintain possession and control the tempo of the game. The blueprint for beating the Ducks is simple enough: Keep their offense off of the field. Auburn can and will do that.
3) Auburn's defense will contain the Ducks running game - The big question mark for Auburn going to the championship game is their defense, which has given up more than 30 points four times this season, not including 26 to lowly Arkansas State and 24 to even lowlier Chattanooga. But the Tigers' defensive backs are faster than anyone else the Ducks have faced this season. They will be fast enough to meet the Ducks' running backs at the ends, and will force to Oregon to become a passing team to generate any offense. And that's when Oregon will start making mistakes.
4) The Ducks will make mistakes - Oregon is 48th in the nation in turnovers, with 22, and 17th in penalties, with 95 for a total of 815 yards. In addition, Auburn's defense is one of the best at causing turnovers, forcing an opponent's turnover in 12.5 percent of all possessions this season. Against weaker teams, Oregon was able to compensate for those mistakes and make comebacks in the second half. They won't be able to do that against Auburn.
5) It's the SEC, Jack - There's a reason why Les Miles said that the SEC champion should automatically get to go to the BCS Championship game. In the last four games, the SEC has outscored their opponents 160-73. The conference simply plays better football than anyone else in the country, and that trend will continue this year once again.
(Next Time... 5 Reasons Why Oregon Will Win)
Friday, December 3, 2010
BCS Bowl Predictor
BCS Championship Game - No. 1 Auburn vs No. 2 Oregon
A lot of my Duck friends complained this week when Auburn jumped Oregon in the BCS standings. Assuming that both teams win tomorrow - and my high school math teacher always toold me that "assuming makes an ass of you and me" - then Auburn's lead in the BCS standings will widen, because the Tigers will get more credit for a win over No. 19 South Carolina than the Ducks will over undranked Oregon State.
Rose Bowl - No. 3 TCU vs No. 5 Wisconsin
The Badgers will get the Big Ten's automatic Rose Bowl berth based on being higher in the BCS rankings than either Ohio State or Michigan State. TCU will be Oregon's replacement, because of the Rose Bowl's "one time only" rule of selecting the highest non-AQ team to replace someone who is in the national championship game. This should be an awesome game; can TCU's hyperspeed defense slow down Wisconsin's White Clay Ball?
Fiesta Bowl - No. 13 Nebraska vs Connecticut
The Fiesta Bowl gets last pick among the BCS bowls this year because they are the "host" for the NC game played a week later. Nebraska has to beat no. 9 Oklahoma tomorrow in the Big 12 Championship to get in, and UConn has to win at South Florida to become the first unranked BCS team. If they lose, then no. 24 West Virginia will be in with a win at Rutgers. If both the Huskies and the Mountaineers lose, then Pitt will get in with a Cincinnati. If all three lose, then UConn gets in. Stranger things have happened.
Sugar Bowl - No. 6 Ohio State vs No. 7 Arkansas
This is a tough one to predict. The Sugar Bowl is set to lose Auburn to the BCS game, and probably will want to replace them with the next highest SEC team, which is Arkansas. The Sugar Bowl doesn't like ths; they would make a lot more bling hosting no. 10 LSU or no. 16 Alabama. To compensate, they will probably give Ohio State an at-large berth. The Buckeyes have a much larger fan base than any of the other BCS teams this year. Of course, all of this is moot if South Carolina upsets Auburn and gets the SEC's automatic berth.
Orange Bowl - No. 4 Stanford vs No. 15 Virginia Tech
If Stanford ends in the top 4 in the BCS - and they should at this point because they've finished their season - then they must go to a BCS game. The Orange Bowl should then be faced with the unenviable task of choosing between Stanford and Connecticut for their at-large selection. In football. Men's football. The Orange would be much happier if no. 21 Florida State manages to upset the Hokies to win the ACC and fill up the stands in Miami. They might also pick West Virginia over Stanford if UConn loses, thereby sending the Cardinal to the Fiesta Bowl - which would attract way more Pac-10 fans because it is played in Arizona - to play the Big 12 Champions.
A lot of my Duck friends complained this week when Auburn jumped Oregon in the BCS standings. Assuming that both teams win tomorrow - and my high school math teacher always toold me that "assuming makes an ass of you and me" - then Auburn's lead in the BCS standings will widen, because the Tigers will get more credit for a win over No. 19 South Carolina than the Ducks will over undranked Oregon State.
Rose Bowl - No. 3 TCU vs No. 5 Wisconsin
The Badgers will get the Big Ten's automatic Rose Bowl berth based on being higher in the BCS rankings than either Ohio State or Michigan State. TCU will be Oregon's replacement, because of the Rose Bowl's "one time only" rule of selecting the highest non-AQ team to replace someone who is in the national championship game. This should be an awesome game; can TCU's hyperspeed defense slow down Wisconsin's White Clay Ball?
Fiesta Bowl - No. 13 Nebraska vs Connecticut
The Fiesta Bowl gets last pick among the BCS bowls this year because they are the "host" for the NC game played a week later. Nebraska has to beat no. 9 Oklahoma tomorrow in the Big 12 Championship to get in, and UConn has to win at South Florida to become the first unranked BCS team. If they lose, then no. 24 West Virginia will be in with a win at Rutgers. If both the Huskies and the Mountaineers lose, then Pitt will get in with a Cincinnati. If all three lose, then UConn gets in. Stranger things have happened.
Sugar Bowl - No. 6 Ohio State vs No. 7 Arkansas
This is a tough one to predict. The Sugar Bowl is set to lose Auburn to the BCS game, and probably will want to replace them with the next highest SEC team, which is Arkansas. The Sugar Bowl doesn't like ths; they would make a lot more bling hosting no. 10 LSU or no. 16 Alabama. To compensate, they will probably give Ohio State an at-large berth. The Buckeyes have a much larger fan base than any of the other BCS teams this year. Of course, all of this is moot if South Carolina upsets Auburn and gets the SEC's automatic berth.
Orange Bowl - No. 4 Stanford vs No. 15 Virginia Tech
If Stanford ends in the top 4 in the BCS - and they should at this point because they've finished their season - then they must go to a BCS game. The Orange Bowl should then be faced with the unenviable task of choosing between Stanford and Connecticut for their at-large selection. In football. Men's football. The Orange would be much happier if no. 21 Florida State manages to upset the Hokies to win the ACC and fill up the stands in Miami. They might also pick West Virginia over Stanford if UConn loses, thereby sending the Cardinal to the Fiesta Bowl - which would attract way more Pac-10 fans because it is played in Arizona - to play the Big 12 Champions.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
How Good Is Boise State Really?
"Dearth" is one of my favorite words. It is Old English in its origins, from dierth or deore. It is, itself, a very old word, first used in a recognizable form in the 1400s, and hasn't actually changed much since then. It is related to "dear," in the sense of something being valuable because there is a lack of it.
This week, there is a dearth of good college football games.
The top 3 BCS teams - Oregon, Auburn, and TCU - all have bye weeks this week. No. 4 Boise State (they're 3rd in the AP) crushed the Fresno State Bulldogs last night 51-0. I watched that game last night when I was out at a bar with Robyn and her library friends. At first I did really good. I sat with my back to the TV. I engaged in conversation. I listened. But then the bar started blasting salsa music. And the conversation turned to grad school departmental gossip. And I had another Manhattan. And I found myself craning my neck more and more often to watch the Broncos demolish the Bulldogs on that crazy blue field. (When I turned around, everyone had left the table to go salsa dancing.)
It's impossible to eyeball exactly how good Boise State is based on a game like they played last night. I would say that there were probably 3 plays when Kellen Moore made a pass that just made me go, "Oh my God!" But then there were probably 3 other plays when I said to myself, "Hmmm... Fresno State's defense really can't cover." That's the traditional knock against BSU: sure they're good, but they never really get challenged. However, I think that the WAC is better than a lot of people give it credit for being, and that Boise State may really just be that dominant.
Now, let's be absolutely clear: In a world where there are four undefeated teams at the end of the season, the Pac-10 and SEC champs get in before the WAC and MWC champs. But this season, against the six BCS conferences plus the Mountain West, the WAC is 11-15. That's not good, but it's respectable. This includes Boise's wins against Virginia Tech and Oregon State. It also includes Hawaii's win against Army, Nevada's wins against Cal and BYU. (And Fresno State's win against, um, Cincinnati.) It also includes Hawaii's 49-36 loss to USC, Utah State's 31-24 loss to Oklahoma, and San Jose State's 27-14 loss to Wisconsin. (Who currently leads Michigan 24-0.)
We'll know a lot more after Boise State plays #18 Nevada. But my point is this: If Auburn loses to Alabama, but then turns around to beat South Carolina and win the SEC, there is no way that they should get in to the NC ahead of an undefeated Boise State. The Broncos competition is stiff enough that, when added to their wins against Oregon State and the likely ACC champion Virginia Tech, they would be more deserving than any 1-loss SEC team.
This week, there is a dearth of good college football games.
The top 3 BCS teams - Oregon, Auburn, and TCU - all have bye weeks this week. No. 4 Boise State (they're 3rd in the AP) crushed the Fresno State Bulldogs last night 51-0. I watched that game last night when I was out at a bar with Robyn and her library friends. At first I did really good. I sat with my back to the TV. I engaged in conversation. I listened. But then the bar started blasting salsa music. And the conversation turned to grad school departmental gossip. And I had another Manhattan. And I found myself craning my neck more and more often to watch the Broncos demolish the Bulldogs on that crazy blue field. (When I turned around, everyone had left the table to go salsa dancing.)
It's impossible to eyeball exactly how good Boise State is based on a game like they played last night. I would say that there were probably 3 plays when Kellen Moore made a pass that just made me go, "Oh my God!" But then there were probably 3 other plays when I said to myself, "Hmmm... Fresno State's defense really can't cover." That's the traditional knock against BSU: sure they're good, but they never really get challenged. However, I think that the WAC is better than a lot of people give it credit for being, and that Boise State may really just be that dominant.
Now, let's be absolutely clear: In a world where there are four undefeated teams at the end of the season, the Pac-10 and SEC champs get in before the WAC and MWC champs. But this season, against the six BCS conferences plus the Mountain West, the WAC is 11-15. That's not good, but it's respectable. This includes Boise's wins against Virginia Tech and Oregon State. It also includes Hawaii's win against Army, Nevada's wins against Cal and BYU. (And Fresno State's win against, um, Cincinnati.) It also includes Hawaii's 49-36 loss to USC, Utah State's 31-24 loss to Oklahoma, and San Jose State's 27-14 loss to Wisconsin. (Who currently leads Michigan 24-0.)
We'll know a lot more after Boise State plays #18 Nevada. But my point is this: If Auburn loses to Alabama, but then turns around to beat South Carolina and win the SEC, there is no way that they should get in to the NC ahead of an undefeated Boise State. The Broncos competition is stiff enough that, when added to their wins against Oregon State and the likely ACC champion Virginia Tech, they would be more deserving than any 1-loss SEC team.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
The BCS is Tedious, the Blazers are Clumsy
Careless Blazers Goofing Around with Basketball Shatter Greg Oden into a Thousand Pieces
Tedious BCS Debates Overshadow Great Stories
Raplh Russo thinks that the BCS is a bad system because it makes fans debate whether a victory over San Diego State or Hawaii is more important. I disagree. I think that's what is good about the BCS.
Sources confirmed that after an errant pass from Miller careened off Roy's
fingertips and hit Oden's shoulder, Oden teetered from side to side for a tense
moment—during which unbelieving players found themselves unable to move—before
toppling to the ground just out of reach of a diving Roy.
The team
reportedly stared silently at the broken pieces of Oden for several seconds
until Roy said, "We're dead. We are so dead."
Tedious BCS Debates Overshadow Great Stories
Raplh Russo thinks that the BCS is a bad system because it makes fans debate whether a victory over San Diego State or Hawaii is more important. I disagree. I think that's what is good about the BCS.
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Whim and Fancy
The previous post isn't really based on anything, except for my own whim and fancy. As a Ducks' fan, I have been hesitant to say that they will play for the NC; my mantra all along has been "Play for the Rose Bowl." But you can't deny that they've been looking really good the last three weeks, and will play for the NC if they win out. Their last three games are at Cal, vs. Arizona, and at Oregon State. Also, with Arizona losing to Stanford and OSU losing to UCLA this weekend, the Ducks can now lose a game and still clinch the Rose Bowl. Not that I believe they will, but it's still nice to know.
It's sad that no one got to watch last night's TCU-Utah game last night. Everyone knew that Utah was a good team, and they got crushed 47-7 at home by TCU. This game, along with LSU's win over Alabama, pretty much assures us that no 1-loss AQ team (i.e., Oregon, Auburn, LSU, Nebraska, Ohio State) will be able to beat out an undefeated Horned Frogs team. Unfortunately, this pretty much guarantees that Boise State will be locked out of the BCS game once again, as I doubt that anyone would be able to stomach two non-AQ teams in the championship game.
Oregon is the AP's #1 team. But I bet that Vegas would put them as underdogs against Auburn, TCU, and Boise State. It's very likely that the Ducks' spread offense would struggle against a defense as fast as TCU's.
It'll be interesting to see which conferences will be able to fill all of their bowl games and which ones won't. The SEC has an obscene 10 bowl spots for its 12 teams. (assuming that they get a spot in BCS game.) This would mean that Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Georgia will need to find a way to win down the stretch in order to become bowl eligible. Ole Miss probably has the toughest job, needing to win 2 out of 3 against Tennessee, LSU, and Mississippi St. The Pac-10 may also struggle to fill its six bowl spots because of USC's bowl ban. UCLA and Arizona State both need to win 2 out of 3 to become bowl eligible; I give it to UCLA, with games left against Washington, ASU, and then 'SC in the Rose Bowl.
I've got Air Force, Army , and Navy all going to bowl games this year. Has that ever happened before? Also, I have Texas and Notre Dame being left out. That probably won't happen, though, as most bowl games would pick them over more deserving teams because of their huge fan bases.
It's sad that no one got to watch last night's TCU-Utah game last night. Everyone knew that Utah was a good team, and they got crushed 47-7 at home by TCU. This game, along with LSU's win over Alabama, pretty much assures us that no 1-loss AQ team (i.e., Oregon, Auburn, LSU, Nebraska, Ohio State) will be able to beat out an undefeated Horned Frogs team. Unfortunately, this pretty much guarantees that Boise State will be locked out of the BCS game once again, as I doubt that anyone would be able to stomach two non-AQ teams in the championship game.
Oregon is the AP's #1 team. But I bet that Vegas would put them as underdogs against Auburn, TCU, and Boise State. It's very likely that the Ducks' spread offense would struggle against a defense as fast as TCU's.
It'll be interesting to see which conferences will be able to fill all of their bowl games and which ones won't. The SEC has an obscene 10 bowl spots for its 12 teams. (assuming that they get a spot in BCS game.) This would mean that Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Georgia will need to find a way to win down the stretch in order to become bowl eligible. Ole Miss probably has the toughest job, needing to win 2 out of 3 against Tennessee, LSU, and Mississippi St. The Pac-10 may also struggle to fill its six bowl spots because of USC's bowl ban. UCLA and Arizona State both need to win 2 out of 3 to become bowl eligible; I give it to UCLA, with games left against Washington, ASU, and then 'SC in the Rose Bowl.
I've got Air Force, Army , and Navy all going to bowl games this year. Has that ever happened before? Also, I have Texas and Notre Dame being left out. That probably won't happen, though, as most bowl games would pick them over more deserving teams because of their huge fan bases.
Bowl Predictor - Nov. 07
BCS Championship Game - #1 Oregon vs. #2 Auburn
Rose Bowl - #3 TCU vs. #5 Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl - #7 Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
Sugar Bowl - #6 LSU vs. #4 Boise State
Orange Bowl - #22 Virginia Tech vs. #8 Ohio State
Cotton Bowl - #10 Oklahoma State vs. #11 Alabama
Capital One Bowl - #13 Michigan State vs. #17 Arkansas
Chik-fil-A Bowl - Florida State vs. #20 Mississippi State
Outback Bowl - #16 Iowa vs. Florida
Gator Bowl - #23 Penn State vs. South Carolina
Holiday Bowl - #15 Arizona vs. #19 Missouri
Sun Bowl - #9 Stanford vs. Miami (FL)
Insight Bowl - Illinois vs. #14 Oklahoma
Alamo Bowl - Kansas State vs. California
Papajohns.com Bowl - Syracuse vs. Georgia
Dallas Football Classic - Baylor vs. Temple
Liberty Bowl - UCF vs. Kentucky
Meineke Car Care Bowl - North Carolina vs. South Florida
Music City Bowl - North Carolina State vs. Mississippi
Pinstripe Bowl - Texas A&M vs. Louisville
Armed Forces Bowl - Houston vs. Air Force
Texas Bowl - Texas Tech vs. Northern Illinois
EagleBank Bowl - West Virginia vs. Tulsa
Champs Sports Bowl - Maryland vs. Michigan
Las Vegas Bowl - #12 Utah vs. Oregon State
Poinsettia Bowl - #24 San Diego State vs. Navy
New Mexico Bowl - #21 Nevada vs. BYU
Humanitarian Bowl - Ohio vs. #25 Hawaii
Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl - Toledo vs. Northwestern
St. Petersburg Bowl - Rutgers vs. UTEP
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State vs. East Carolina
New Orleans Bowl - Southern Miss vs. Troy
Independence Bowl - Clemson vs. Idaho
GMAC Bowl - Miami (OH) vs. Arkansas State
Kraft Cheese Fight Hunger Bowl - UCLA vs. Army
Rose Bowl - #3 TCU vs. #5 Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl - #7 Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
Sugar Bowl - #6 LSU vs. #4 Boise State
Orange Bowl - #22 Virginia Tech vs. #8 Ohio State
Cotton Bowl - #10 Oklahoma State vs. #11 Alabama
Capital One Bowl - #13 Michigan State vs. #17 Arkansas
Chik-fil-A Bowl - Florida State vs. #20 Mississippi State
Outback Bowl - #16 Iowa vs. Florida
Gator Bowl - #23 Penn State vs. South Carolina
Holiday Bowl - #15 Arizona vs. #19 Missouri
Sun Bowl - #9 Stanford vs. Miami (FL)
Insight Bowl - Illinois vs. #14 Oklahoma
Alamo Bowl - Kansas State vs. California
Papajohns.com Bowl - Syracuse vs. Georgia
Dallas Football Classic - Baylor vs. Temple
Liberty Bowl - UCF vs. Kentucky
Meineke Car Care Bowl - North Carolina vs. South Florida
Music City Bowl - North Carolina State vs. Mississippi
Pinstripe Bowl - Texas A&M vs. Louisville
Armed Forces Bowl - Houston vs. Air Force
Texas Bowl - Texas Tech vs. Northern Illinois
EagleBank Bowl - West Virginia vs. Tulsa
Champs Sports Bowl - Maryland vs. Michigan
Las Vegas Bowl - #12 Utah vs. Oregon State
Poinsettia Bowl - #24 San Diego State vs. Navy
New Mexico Bowl - #21 Nevada vs. BYU
Humanitarian Bowl - Ohio vs. #25 Hawaii
Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl - Toledo vs. Northwestern
St. Petersburg Bowl - Rutgers vs. UTEP
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State vs. East Carolina
New Orleans Bowl - Southern Miss vs. Troy
Independence Bowl - Clemson vs. Idaho
GMAC Bowl - Miami (OH) vs. Arkansas State
Kraft Cheese Fight Hunger Bowl - UCLA vs. Army
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Everybody Hates the SEC
Question: Should the SEC Champ automatically qualify for the BCS championship game?
A few weeks ago, I was riding in a car with three University of Illinois graduate students, on our way to the Danville Correctional Facility in Eastern Illinois. We were on our way there to work at our volunteer jobs tutoring inmates at Danville who are working towards earning either their Associate's or Bachelor's degrees. As it were, none of us really knew one another, and so the conversation covered those polite and superficial topics: college majors, grad student politics, the weather... sports. After about twenty minutes of driving through the Illinois plains - plains that were slowly turning into gently wooded hills as we approached the Indiana border - we realized that three of us were quite avid college football fans. Annie* had grown up in Stillwater, Oklahoma, and her family and taught her at an early age how to be fan of the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys had long been a doormat of the Big Eight/Big 12 Conference, having only one winning season between 1989 and 2001, including an 0-12-1 campaign in 1991.
The weekend before, UCLA had shocked the world by waltzing into Austin and beating then #7 Texas 34-12.** And I was surprised by how excited Annie was at the Longhorns' loss. But I guess I shouldn't have been; Texas had long tormented Oklahoma State, and had dominated the Big 12 for most of this decade, even having the power to hold the entire conference hostage by threatening to bolt for the Pac-10 over the summer. I asked her how she felt about the upcoming Oklahoma-Texas showdown: surely she would be rooting against her in-state rival? She thought about it for a second, but then said, no, she thought she would rather see mighty Texas fall again.
Riding shotgun in our carpool was Brent, who had gone to Illinois as an undergrad and was now there as a grad student as well. And Brent hated Ohio State. Hated, hated, hated them. This conversation was before the Illini had played the Buckeyes, but I imagine that Brent was none too pleased that Illinois played them tough - they still lost.
Then there was kinda a lull in the conversation. Sure, I rooted against 'SC in all in-conference games, but I was always glad to see them win the Rose Bowl. I couldn't muster nearly half of the vitriol towards the Trojans as Annie could to Texas or Brent Ohio State. There was a pause. Annie complemented Oregon's offense. Another pause.
Then I said, "But boy, do I hate the SEC."
The car erupted in agreement.
It didn't matter if we came from Oregon, Illinois, or Oklahoma. It didn't matter if we were Pac-10, Big Ten, or Big 12. We all hated the SEC. We hated their pompous coaches, their protective schedules, their policy of promising more athletic scholarships than they can provide and then turning away their student-athletes at the last second. We hated their excessive media exposure and their over-representation in the AP poll.*** We hated the fact that they have two "Bulldogs" and two "Tigers." We all hated the SEC.
And now we have a new reason to hate.
In the second week of this year's BCS standings, the Auburn Tigers have leapfrogged both Oregon and Boise State into #1, following their 24-17 victory over the LSU Tigers. This is despite the fact that Auburn began the season ranked 22nd, and that Oregon and Boise State still continue to outrank them in the AP, Coaches, and Harris Polls.**** Auburn's position in the BCS is based almost entirely on their high ranking in the computer polls, which give them an average score of .9800 (out of 1.0000). Meanwhile, the computers have Oregon ranked 8th, behind not only one-loss LSU, but also behind one-loss Oklahoma.
It seems to me that the computers are dedicated to having the SEC champion in the National Championship game. And why not? After all, the last four national champions have all come from the SEC. And, during those four years, the SEC has gone 21-11 in bowl games against other BCS schools (plus the WAC and MWC), for a winning percentage of .656, second only to the Mountain West's record of 10-4, with a .714 winning percentage. By comparison, in those four years the Pac-10 has gone .565, the Big 12 .516, and the Big Ten a lowly .321.
I'm not saying that Auburn doesn't deserve to be the #1 team in the country. In fact, I highly doubt that Oregon's defense could stop Cam Newton, or be able to keep their offense on the field. (Akin to how Terrelle Pryor and the Buckeyes beat them in the Rose Bowl last year.) The simple truth is that I have no way of knowing. The same holds true for Alabama and Mark Ingram. But I don't know anyone in their right mind who would rank the LSU Tigers above the Ducks. Besides, the Tigers have lost a game; the Ducks have not. Therefore, there is no justification for the computers to judge that LSU's SEC schedule is so difficult that they deserve to be ranked higher than the Ducks.
Unfortunately, that's the system that we are stuck with. If the rest of the country - from Stillwater, OK to Champaign, IL to Eugene, OR - wants the SEC to fall, then they're going to need to beat them on the field.
* Names have been changed to protect the innocent.
** A feat that looks a lot less impressive now that Texas has lost to Oklahoma and to, ahem, Iowa State.
*** Of the 60 voters in the AP poll, 15 are from SEC states. 11 are from the Big Ten, 8 from the Big 12, and 6 from the Pac-10.
****Also, what's up with Auburn playing 8 of their 12 games at home this year?
A few weeks ago, I was riding in a car with three University of Illinois graduate students, on our way to the Danville Correctional Facility in Eastern Illinois. We were on our way there to work at our volunteer jobs tutoring inmates at Danville who are working towards earning either their Associate's or Bachelor's degrees. As it were, none of us really knew one another, and so the conversation covered those polite and superficial topics: college majors, grad student politics, the weather... sports. After about twenty minutes of driving through the Illinois plains - plains that were slowly turning into gently wooded hills as we approached the Indiana border - we realized that three of us were quite avid college football fans. Annie* had grown up in Stillwater, Oklahoma, and her family and taught her at an early age how to be fan of the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys had long been a doormat of the Big Eight/Big 12 Conference, having only one winning season between 1989 and 2001, including an 0-12-1 campaign in 1991.
The weekend before, UCLA had shocked the world by waltzing into Austin and beating then #7 Texas 34-12.** And I was surprised by how excited Annie was at the Longhorns' loss. But I guess I shouldn't have been; Texas had long tormented Oklahoma State, and had dominated the Big 12 for most of this decade, even having the power to hold the entire conference hostage by threatening to bolt for the Pac-10 over the summer. I asked her how she felt about the upcoming Oklahoma-Texas showdown: surely she would be rooting against her in-state rival? She thought about it for a second, but then said, no, she thought she would rather see mighty Texas fall again.
Riding shotgun in our carpool was Brent, who had gone to Illinois as an undergrad and was now there as a grad student as well. And Brent hated Ohio State. Hated, hated, hated them. This conversation was before the Illini had played the Buckeyes, but I imagine that Brent was none too pleased that Illinois played them tough - they still lost.
Then there was kinda a lull in the conversation. Sure, I rooted against 'SC in all in-conference games, but I was always glad to see them win the Rose Bowl. I couldn't muster nearly half of the vitriol towards the Trojans as Annie could to Texas or Brent Ohio State. There was a pause. Annie complemented Oregon's offense. Another pause.
Then I said, "But boy, do I hate the SEC."
The car erupted in agreement.
It didn't matter if we came from Oregon, Illinois, or Oklahoma. It didn't matter if we were Pac-10, Big Ten, or Big 12. We all hated the SEC. We hated their pompous coaches, their protective schedules, their policy of promising more athletic scholarships than they can provide and then turning away their student-athletes at the last second. We hated their excessive media exposure and their over-representation in the AP poll.*** We hated the fact that they have two "Bulldogs" and two "Tigers." We all hated the SEC.
And now we have a new reason to hate.
In the second week of this year's BCS standings, the Auburn Tigers have leapfrogged both Oregon and Boise State into #1, following their 24-17 victory over the LSU Tigers. This is despite the fact that Auburn began the season ranked 22nd, and that Oregon and Boise State still continue to outrank them in the AP, Coaches, and Harris Polls.**** Auburn's position in the BCS is based almost entirely on their high ranking in the computer polls, which give them an average score of .9800 (out of 1.0000). Meanwhile, the computers have Oregon ranked 8th, behind not only one-loss LSU, but also behind one-loss Oklahoma.
It seems to me that the computers are dedicated to having the SEC champion in the National Championship game. And why not? After all, the last four national champions have all come from the SEC. And, during those four years, the SEC has gone 21-11 in bowl games against other BCS schools (plus the WAC and MWC), for a winning percentage of .656, second only to the Mountain West's record of 10-4, with a .714 winning percentage. By comparison, in those four years the Pac-10 has gone .565, the Big 12 .516, and the Big Ten a lowly .321.
I'm not saying that Auburn doesn't deserve to be the #1 team in the country. In fact, I highly doubt that Oregon's defense could stop Cam Newton, or be able to keep their offense on the field. (Akin to how Terrelle Pryor and the Buckeyes beat them in the Rose Bowl last year.) The simple truth is that I have no way of knowing. The same holds true for Alabama and Mark Ingram. But I don't know anyone in their right mind who would rank the LSU Tigers above the Ducks. Besides, the Tigers have lost a game; the Ducks have not. Therefore, there is no justification for the computers to judge that LSU's SEC schedule is so difficult that they deserve to be ranked higher than the Ducks.
Unfortunately, that's the system that we are stuck with. If the rest of the country - from Stillwater, OK to Champaign, IL to Eugene, OR - wants the SEC to fall, then they're going to need to beat them on the field.
* Names have been changed to protect the innocent.
** A feat that looks a lot less impressive now that Texas has lost to Oklahoma and to, ahem, Iowa State.
*** Of the 60 voters in the AP poll, 15 are from SEC states. 11 are from the Big Ten, 8 from the Big 12, and 6 from the Pac-10.
****Also, what's up with Auburn playing 8 of their 12 games at home this year?
Sunday, October 17, 2010
There's A New #1...
It's an historic day to be a Duck.
For the first time in history, Oregon is the No. 1 ranked team in the AP Poll. I think that it says something about the dubiousness of the Poll system when the Ducks are able to become #1 by staying home and doing nothing while Ohio State loses to Wisconsin 31-18. But never look a gift horse in the mouth. Also, it would be the height of hypocrisy if I didn't add that, last night, I was at a bar in Champaign, Illinois, jumping and hooting and shouting at the television screen during the 4th quarter of the Ohio St.-Wisconsin game. So it's not like it doesn't matter to me, as a Ducks fan, that the Ducks are number one, but, as Chip Kelly said, "Whether we're No. 1 in the country or 101 it won't affect how we prepare."
Even though the Ducks are No. 1 in the AP Poll, chances are that they'll be 2 in the BCS rankings that are going to be released later tonight, behind Boise State*. (I would vote for the Broncos #1, too.) And they still have by far the toughest remaining schedule of any of the top contenders, with USC, Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State all looming. But they now can be officially considered as favorites to reach the BCS Championship in January. (But don't look past UCLA!)
* Surprisingly, they're #2 behind Oklahoma. Boise State is #3.
For the first time in history, Oregon is the No. 1 ranked team in the AP Poll. I think that it says something about the dubiousness of the Poll system when the Ducks are able to become #1 by staying home and doing nothing while Ohio State loses to Wisconsin 31-18. But never look a gift horse in the mouth. Also, it would be the height of hypocrisy if I didn't add that, last night, I was at a bar in Champaign, Illinois, jumping and hooting and shouting at the television screen during the 4th quarter of the Ohio St.-Wisconsin game. So it's not like it doesn't matter to me, as a Ducks fan, that the Ducks are number one, but, as Chip Kelly said, "Whether we're No. 1 in the country or 101 it won't affect how we prepare."
Even though the Ducks are No. 1 in the AP Poll, chances are that they'll be 2 in the BCS rankings that are going to be released later tonight, behind Boise State*. (I would vote for the Broncos #1, too.) And they still have by far the toughest remaining schedule of any of the top contenders, with USC, Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State all looming. But they now can be officially considered as favorites to reach the BCS Championship in January. (But don't look past UCLA!)
* Surprisingly, they're #2 behind Oklahoma. Boise State is #3.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Poll Watching
Here is this week's AP poll:
1) Ohio State
2) Oregon
3) Boise State
4) TCU
5) Nebraska
6) Oklahoma
7) Auburn
8) Alabama
9) LSU
10) South Carolina
11) Utah
12) Arkansas
13) Michigan State
14) Stanford
15) Iowa
16) Florida State
17) Arizona
18) Wisconsin
19) Nevada
20) Oklahoma State
21) Missouri
22) Florida
23) Air Force
24) Oregon State
25) West Virginia
Hey, do you remember that game LAST WEEK when South Carolina beat Alabama 35-21? Or how about that game three weeks ago when Arizona beat Iowa 34-27?
It's carelessness like this that makes fans angry at the AP (let alone the Coaches) Poll. We invest our time and energy into this sport. It shouldn't be too much to ask for the Press to do the same.
Here's my (pretend) ballot:
1) Ohio State
2) Boise State
3) Oregon
4) TCU
5) Oklahoma
6) Nebraska
7) Auburn
8) Utah
9) LSU
10) South Carolina
11) Alabama
12) Arkansas
13) Stanford
14) Michigan State
15) Arizona
16) Florida State
17) Missouri
18) Iowa
19) Oklahoma State
20) Wisconsin
21) Nevada
22) North Carolina State
23) Air Force
24) West Virginia
25) Michigan
1) Ohio State
2) Oregon
3) Boise State
4) TCU
5) Nebraska
6) Oklahoma
7) Auburn
8) Alabama
9) LSU
10) South Carolina
11) Utah
12) Arkansas
13) Michigan State
14) Stanford
15) Iowa
16) Florida State
17) Arizona
18) Wisconsin
19) Nevada
20) Oklahoma State
21) Missouri
22) Florida
23) Air Force
24) Oregon State
25) West Virginia
Hey, do you remember that game LAST WEEK when South Carolina beat Alabama 35-21? Or how about that game three weeks ago when Arizona beat Iowa 34-27?
It's carelessness like this that makes fans angry at the AP (let alone the Coaches) Poll. We invest our time and energy into this sport. It shouldn't be too much to ask for the Press to do the same.
Here's my (pretend) ballot:
1) Ohio State
2) Boise State
3) Oregon
4) TCU
5) Oklahoma
6) Nebraska
7) Auburn
8) Utah
9) LSU
10) South Carolina
11) Alabama
12) Arkansas
13) Stanford
14) Michigan State
15) Arizona
16) Florida State
17) Missouri
18) Iowa
19) Oklahoma State
20) Wisconsin
21) Nevada
22) North Carolina State
23) Air Force
24) West Virginia
25) Michigan
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Who Has The Clearest Road to the BCS Championship?
1) Ohio State - The Buckeyes will probably have their most difficult test of the rest of the year this Saturday at #18 Wisconsin. After that, they should get two easy wins against Minnesota and Purdue, followed by a home game against Penn State that is suddenly looking a lot less vital after Penn State's home loss to Illinois. In all likelihood, the Big Ten will be decided on Nov. 20, when Ohio State travels to #15 Iowa. However, the Hawkeyes will need to be perfect going into that game in order for it to have major BCS implications. And the bottom line is that, aside from whoever is the eventual SEC champ, Ohio State has the best chance of making it to the National Championship with one loss.
2) Oklahoma - No one's road to the National Championship game is easy. But the Sooners have already passed their toughest challenges of the year, with impressive wins over Florida State and Texas. They're at #21 Missouri on Oct. 23, and finish their year at #20 Oklahoma State. Even though both of those teams are undefeated right now, the Sooners should still be heavy favorites in both of those games. It is very possible that UO will be undefeated going into the Big 12 Championship, and a 13-0 Oklahoma team should be a lock for the National Championship. Emphasis on "should".
3) Nebraska - The only difference between Nebraska and Oklahoma right now is that the Sooners have already beaten Texas, whereas Nebraska will get that chance this weekend. That starts a tough - although not brutal - stretch for the Cornhuskers when they play at Oklahoma State and host Missouri. If they survive undefeated, a Big 12 title match with Oklahoma would be a de facto national semifinal. Lose, however, and odds are they'll be playing for the rights to the Fiesta Bowl, and the Fiesta Bowl alone.
4) Oregon - The good news for the #2 Ducks: Win and you're in. The bad news: "Winning" entails games at USC (Oct. 30), at Cal (Nov. 13), and at Oregon State (Dec. 04). The bad news, part 2: They'll probably have to run the table in order to have a shot at the National Championship. Even though the Pac-10 is probably the deepest conference in the nation this year, voters tend to not give the Pac-10 champ the benefit of the doubt when it comes time for selecting the BCS championships. A one-loss Ohio State or Oklahoma would most likely, get the nod before the Ducks, let alone the SEC champ.
5) Boise State - Of course the Broncos absolutely must win out in order to have a chance at the Championship game. But that's not going to be a problem for them, a November 26 trip to #19 Nevada notwithstanding. They'll be spending a lot of this year rooting for the other top teams in the country to lose. In a way, Boise State may have benefited the most from Alabama's loss to South Carolina. They'll still need at least three of the four teams ahead of them to lose at least once, and probably some more havoc in the SEC. Nevertheless, Boise State remains in a better position now for making it to the National Championship than they ever have before.
SEC Champ .... Nobody? South Carolina's 35-21 win over Alabama on Saturday turned the SEC on it's head. Even though the SEC is still the toughest conference in football, it's perceived weakness this year means that it's champion will not get a free pass to the BCS game. The conference's problem seems to be that no team has a clear path to the SEC title game with one or fewer losses. Auburn has Arkansas, LSU, and Alabama. South Carolina has Arkansas and Florida (and Clemson!). LSU has Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas. And so on, and so forth. It's like football roulette. I'm not saying that we won't see an SEC team on the field in Glendale on January 10. But in a down year for the SEC, and with Boise State and TCU set to hold voters' feet to the fire, whoever wins in Atlanta this year will not automatically be booking their flights to Arizona.
2) Oklahoma - No one's road to the National Championship game is easy. But the Sooners have already passed their toughest challenges of the year, with impressive wins over Florida State and Texas. They're at #21 Missouri on Oct. 23, and finish their year at #20 Oklahoma State. Even though both of those teams are undefeated right now, the Sooners should still be heavy favorites in both of those games. It is very possible that UO will be undefeated going into the Big 12 Championship, and a 13-0 Oklahoma team should be a lock for the National Championship. Emphasis on "should".
3) Nebraska - The only difference between Nebraska and Oklahoma right now is that the Sooners have already beaten Texas, whereas Nebraska will get that chance this weekend. That starts a tough - although not brutal - stretch for the Cornhuskers when they play at Oklahoma State and host Missouri. If they survive undefeated, a Big 12 title match with Oklahoma would be a de facto national semifinal. Lose, however, and odds are they'll be playing for the rights to the Fiesta Bowl, and the Fiesta Bowl alone.
4) Oregon - The good news for the #2 Ducks: Win and you're in. The bad news: "Winning" entails games at USC (Oct. 30), at Cal (Nov. 13), and at Oregon State (Dec. 04). The bad news, part 2: They'll probably have to run the table in order to have a shot at the National Championship. Even though the Pac-10 is probably the deepest conference in the nation this year, voters tend to not give the Pac-10 champ the benefit of the doubt when it comes time for selecting the BCS championships. A one-loss Ohio State or Oklahoma would most likely, get the nod before the Ducks, let alone the SEC champ.
5) Boise State - Of course the Broncos absolutely must win out in order to have a chance at the Championship game. But that's not going to be a problem for them, a November 26 trip to #19 Nevada notwithstanding. They'll be spending a lot of this year rooting for the other top teams in the country to lose. In a way, Boise State may have benefited the most from Alabama's loss to South Carolina. They'll still need at least three of the four teams ahead of them to lose at least once, and probably some more havoc in the SEC. Nevertheless, Boise State remains in a better position now for making it to the National Championship than they ever have before.
SEC Champ .... Nobody? South Carolina's 35-21 win over Alabama on Saturday turned the SEC on it's head. Even though the SEC is still the toughest conference in football, it's perceived weakness this year means that it's champion will not get a free pass to the BCS game. The conference's problem seems to be that no team has a clear path to the SEC title game with one or fewer losses. Auburn has Arkansas, LSU, and Alabama. South Carolina has Arkansas and Florida (and Clemson!). LSU has Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas. And so on, and so forth. It's like football roulette. I'm not saying that we won't see an SEC team on the field in Glendale on January 10. But in a down year for the SEC, and with Boise State and TCU set to hold voters' feet to the fire, whoever wins in Atlanta this year will not automatically be booking their flights to Arizona.
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