1) Oregon Ducks (8-0, 5-0, +16) - After watching both Florida State and Alabama absolutely destroy inferior opponents by scores of 49-17 and 45-10 on Saturday, I was prepared to admit that they were the two best teams in the country when the Ducks were tied 14-14 with UCLA at home. Oregon had committed turnovers, had punts blocked, and missed another Maldonado field goal. But then they came out and dominated the No. 12 team in the country in the second half en route to a 42-14 win. So, I have no idea who should be 1 and 2. The Ducks are here now - they'll be replaced by the winner of FSU-Miami next week, but could regain the place if they win their Thursday, Nov. 7 with Stanford. They won't be able to get away with sloppy first half play in that game. Strength of Schedule (SoS): -16.5
2) Florida State (7-0, 5-0, +15) - Strength of Schedule: -15.428
3) Stanford (7-1, 5-1, +15) - SoS: -5.5
4) Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0, +13) - I had hopes that Tennessee - after hanging with Georgia and upsetting South Carolina - would be able to challenge Alabama. Nope. Alabama won easily, 45-10, and now, after Missouri's loss, are alone on top of the SEC. They have a bye next week, and still have challenges ahead against LSU and maybe Auburn, but it's pretty clear right now that Alabama is in a league of their own. SoS: -15.875
4-4 Tennessee has a Strength of Schedule of -7.25. They still have one-loss Missouri and one-loss Auburn on their schedule. Still, 4-4 isn't bad considering they have the Schedule from Hell. They also play Vanderbilt and Kentucky, and they can get bowl eligible with 2 more wins.
5) Miami Hurricanes (7-0, 3-0, +11) - The Seminoles may turn out to be the big winners of Miami's last minute win over Wake Forest, 24-21, as that raises the stakes of their game next week. The Hurricanes have been livin' on a prayer for a while now; coming from behind to beat Georgia Tech, North Carolina (by 4) and Wake Forest. Reason would dictate that they are due for a butt-kicking at the hands of Florida State next week. But that's also what I said about Texas and Oklahoma, too. So, basically, don't listen to anything I say. SoS: -19.857
6) Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0, 4-0, +11) - The Buckeyes knew that they were playing in primetime, and they delivered, kicking Penn State's butts 63-14. This is the same Penn State team that beat Michigan in overtime. According to the AP, this is Penn State's worst loss since losing to the Duquesne Athletic Club 64-5 on November 25, 1899. Duquesne would win the Pittsburgh city championship that year, and featured left tackle Otman Franklin Wagonhurst, who would later coach Alabama, be elected the Chief Engineer for the Delaware & Eastern Railroad company, and is buried in Akron, Ohio. Ohio State is at Purdue next weekend. SoS: -15
7) Clemson (7-1, 5-1, +9)
8) Northern Illinois (8-0, 4-0, +8) - SoS: -32.25
9) Fresno State Bulldogs (7-0, 4-0, +7) - The Bulldogs needed overtime to beat San Diego State 35-28, their 4th win by 7 points or less. They are at home against Nevada next weekend. SoS: -24.142
10) Baylor Bears (7-0, 4-0, +7) - They beat Kansas 59-14 and are at home against Oklahoma next week. Their two best wins are against Buffalo (MAC) and West Virginia (3-4). I don't think they will 10 games this year. SoS: -21.285
There are eight FBS teams left who are undefeated. Based on strength of schedule, the rankings should go: 1) Ohio State, 2) Florida State, 3) Alabama, 4) Oregon, 5) Miami, 6) Baylor, 7) Fresno State, 8) Northern Illinois. The Top 4 teams are all very very close. The Buckeyes are at a disadvantage with the humans because of the perceived weakness of the Big Ten, their lack of blow out wins (until last night), and their lack of ranked opponents. If the Ducks win out, they should have the support of both humans (who like their flash) and the computers, who like the Pac-12 and will like 4 top 25 wins and 7 wins against .... let's say the top 54. But that also means that they are the most likely the team to lose a game. I don't think that the humans will allow Alabama to be left out of the top 2, but the computers will punish them if they finish the season with only 2 wins against the top 25.
Everybody seems to agree that some combination of Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State are the top 4, with Stanford as the top 1-loss team. Where I am the outlier is Texas A&M, who I have 40th, whereas they are #12 in the AP, and were #16 last week in the BCS, #18 with the computers, although it looks like this week the Massey computer has them 10th and Sagarin has them 9th. Let me make my argument why they should be lower:
#1: I hate Johnny Manziel.
#2: Fuck Johnny Manziel.
#3: They have no good wins. Their wins are against: (32) Rice, FCS Sam Houston State, (90) SMU, (93) Arkansas, (46) Mississippi, and (53) Mississippi State. So their best win is against a good C-USA team, whose only other loss this year has been to Houston.
#4: They have two home losses, and have also played exactly 2 road games. They are 2-0 on the road. One of these was a 45-33 win a Arkansas. Arkansas' only other home loss was against South Carolina. They lost that game 52-7. Texas A&M is currently 12th in the AP. South Carolina is 14th.
#5: The polls think that they have two "good losses" - 49-42 against undefeated #1 Alabama, and 45-41 against one-loss #8 Auburn. First of all, a good loss is still a loss, and when you only get 12 data points, every loss counts. Now, I like Auburn, and think they're real good. But they beat my #57 Washington State at home 31-24, and that WSU team lost at home to Oregon State by 28 points. (Auburn is 8th in the AP, Oregon State is unranked.) They also beat my #53 Mississippi State 24-20, and that MSU team lost at Oklahoma State 21-3. (OkSt. is 18th in the AP.) And while I understand the problems with triangulation, I still think that I have an argument that Texas A&M should be considered slight favorites against Washington State or Mississippi State.
Their inflation is based on the fact that they scored 42 points and gained 628 yards against #1 Alabama, who has given up 36 points and 1,419 yards in their other 7 games combined. (5.1 ppg, 202, ypg) And yes, that's impressive. But they lost. I don't think it is a good sign if your best game is a loss.
#6: Turnovers: The two team stats that are most predictive of success are yards per play and turnovers. The Aggies have forced 15 turnovers and have committed 14.
#7: Their defense is atrocious. Of 125 FBS teams, Texas A&M is ranked 110th in terms of yards allowed per game.
I have the Aggies penciled in at 8-4. They'll play in the Capital One or Outback Bowls, against Nebraska or Michigan State. And they'll win.
11) Missouri (7-1, 3-1, +6)
12) Auburn Tigers (7-1, 3-1, +6) - The AP poll just came out, and OMG guys! The AP has Auburn 8th, followed by Clemson (9), Missouri (10) and LSU (11). That's right: TIGERS, TIGERS, TIGERS, TIGERS. Oh my! Next week: at Arkansas. SoS: -15.875
13) UCLA Bruins (5-2, 2-2, +5) - The Bruins dropped from 12th to 17th in the AP poll, although I only dropped them two spots after losing at Oregon, 42-14. UCLA was able to run against the Ducks, picking up 219 yards on 4.2 yards per carry, but their passing game was taken out. Brett Hundley was 13/19, for 64 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. That's season lows for him in attempts, completions, yards, and TDs, and a season high in INTs. After back-to-back road losses to Stanford and Oregon, UCLA gets a reprieve next week when they host Colorado. SoS: -10.857. Nebraska's loss to Minnesota robs UCLA of their only win over another top 25 team.
14) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +5)
15) UCF (6-1, 3-0, +5)
16) Michigan (6-1, 2-1, +4)
17) Oregon State (6-2, 4-1, +3)
18) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2, +3)
19) Louisville Cardinals (7-1, 3-1, +2) - My wife's uncle went to graduate school in racetrack management at Louisville, and so, when she was little, there was a lot of Louisville gear around their house. One day, her dad was wearing a Louisville shirt, and he asked his daughter (who was, like, three) what animal was on his shirt. After careful consideration, she answered him, "Dad, that is an angry parrot." The Angry Parrots are at Connecticut next week. SoS: -22
20) Ball State (8-1, 5-0, +2)
21) Michigan State (7-1, 4-0, +2)
22) Washington Huskies (5-3, 2-3, +2) - The Huskies were able to halt their 3-game losing streak by beating hapless Cal 41-17. The rest of the season is: bye, vs. Colorado, at UCLA, at Oregon State, vs. Washington State. A 7-5 season would be disappointing; 9-3 would be exciting. 8-4 would be meh. I expect their November 23rd game at Oregon State to be a play-in for the Holiday Bowl. SoS: -9.25
That's a tough schedule. However, it pales in comparison to Cal's SoS of -4.625. Cal has lost to the #1, #3, #6, #13, #17, #22, #57, and #80 teams in the country. Their only win has come against FCS Portland State.
23) Texas Tech (7-1, 4-1, +1)
24) Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2, 3-1, +1) - UCLA's loss against Oregon means that Arizona State is now alone on top of the Pac-12 South. However, I expect that to be short lived; they still have games at Utah, vs. Oregon State, and at UCLA. The Sun Devils get to avoid Oregon this year. However, their schedule is pretty damn hard even without them. SoS: -8.142
25) LSU Tigers (7-2, 3-2, +1) - LSU struggled against FCS Furman in the first half, and led only 20-16 at the half, before they pulled away for a 48-16 win. Zach Mettenberger was 16/24, with 328 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs (one of which was a pick-six). The Tigers get next week off before their annual showdown with Alabama. SoS: -16
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