Sunday, October 20, 2013

Power Rankings - Oct. 20

1) Florida State (6-0, 4-0, +14) - Wow.  If you had told me that Florida State was going to beat Clemson, I would have listened.  I thought the two teams were evenly matched, but that turned out to be untrue.  The Seminoles beat the Tigers 51-14, dominating the AP No. 3 team from start to finish, and now, I believe, have positioned themselves for a run at the title.  QB Jameis Winston went 22/34, 444 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, and the defense forced 4 Clemson turnovers that led to 14 Florida State points.  Also, Lee Corso dressed in red-face and got body slammed by Bill Murray.  Football!


When you win wars, you get to be on the $20 dollar bill. When you lose, Lee Corso dresses up like you and dances.

The Seminoles now have a path to the National Championship.  They get Miami at home on Nov. 02, and are at Florida on Nov. 30.  They should be heavy favorites in both those games.  They would get a 13th game against probably Virginia Tech or Miami in the ACC Championship.  It would be hard to deny a 13-0 Florida State a spot in the title game.  They are home against North Carolina State next week. 

Strength of Schedule: -10.167

2) Alabama (7-0, 4-0, +12) - On a day when the entire SEC got turned up - LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina all lost to unranked opponents - Alabama stayed true to form, beating Arkansas 52-0.  Although it hasn't been against the toughest schedule, the Tide has now allowed only 16 points over the last 20 quarters. Against Arkansas, they allowed 256 yards on 4.0 yards per play, and forced 3 turnovers.  They host Tennessee next weekend, and it will be interesting to see what they can accomplish against a team that just beat South Carolina and almost beat Georgia.  It may be that Alabama is a lot better than the rest of the SEC.  

Strength of Schedule: -15.286

3) Oregon (7-0, 4-0, +12) - The Ducks creamed Washington State 62-38, a game where they led at one point 62-24, then pulled their starters and had their JV squad give up two fourth quarter touchdowns.  They wore garish neon-pink helmets to honor breast cancer awareness month, and I think I agree with Jessica Luther when she writes:


Nike could just donate $1 million, Oregon football could donate another and then release a joint statement. But that wouldn’t lend them nearly as much publicity as these uniforms. Instead, Nike is putting money into uniforms and Oregon is getting a lot of coverage of a game that almost no one will watch. Using “women’s cancers” as a means of spotlighting your brand – I’ll never not find that weird.
Washington State continues to improve, but holy crap: On Saturday, their QB Connor Halliday threw eighty-nine passes for 557 yards, 4 TDs and 4 INTs.  They ran the ball 12 times, for a grand total of 2 yards.  The Ducks now get to the meat of their schedule, playing UCLA next week, then getting a bye week before a Thursday night game at Stanford.  

Strength of Schedule: -16.571  The Ducks have played an easier schedule than Alabama and a much easier schedule than Florida State up to this point, and should be behind both of them in the first BCS rankings tonight.  However, that will change, with all of Oregon's remaining opponents being in the Top 40.  The Ducks just have to win the day.  

4) Missouri (7-0, 3-0, +12) - The Tigers just keep on winning, pulling away from Florida in the 4th quarter to come out on top, 36-17.  With all the carnage in the SEC East, every team other than Missouri now has at least two conference losses.  That means that Missouri needs to win three out of five of the following to win the division: vs. South Carolina, vs. Tennessee, at Kentucky, at Mississippi, vs. Texas A&M. (And one of those wins must be against South Carolina.)

Meanwhile, Florida continues to suck.  Against Missouri, they had 151 total yards, including 59 rushing yards on 1.9 yards per rush.  The Missouri defense, you know, is 49th in the nation, giving up an average of 379 yards per game.  

Strength of Schedule: -13.857

5) Stanford (6-1, 4-1, +12) - Stanford's 24-10 win over UCLA re-established their Nov. 7 showdown with Oregon as the Pac-12 game of the year.  The Cardinal's defense shut down UCLA, allowing only 74 rushing yards on 2.7 yards per run.  However, questions still remain. Stanford led at halftime 3-0, and the game was tied 3-3 until 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.  They're not an explosive team offensively, which is fine, I know I'm looking at this through green and yellow (and pink?) tinted glasses, but then it makes it hard for them to play from behind, as they had to do against Utah.  It could be an interesting game next week, when they visit Corvallis and the Beavers.

Strength of Schedule: -6.  Wow. That is an insanely difficult schedule. It includes 5-2 Arizona State, 5-1 UCLA, 4-3 Washington, and 4-3 Utah.  And they still get Oregon State, Oregon, USC, and Notre Dame.  In fact, it is possible that Stanford could end up playing 9 or 10 bowl eligible teams this season.  

6) Miami (FL) (6-0, 2-0, +10) - Miami had to struggle to beat North Carolina 27-23, and, with their "signature" win against Florida looking less and less impressive, I am beginning to cool on the Hurricanes.  Having said that, 10-2 or 11-1 is still a possibility for them.  Back-to-back games against Florida State and Virginia Tech may be their undoing, though.  They host Wake Forest next week.

Strength of Schedule: -19.5

7) Ohio State (7-0, 3-0, +10) - Strength of Schedule: -14.  That's a lot higher than I expected.  The Buckeyes won in unconvincing manner against Iowa, 34-24, and may be punished by voters who use the eyeball test to cast their votes.  They keep winning, but the Northwestern team they beat by 10 just lost to Minnesota by 3, and the Cal team they beat by 28 just lost to Oregon State by 32 (and to Oregon by 39.) They should get a boost next week if they beat Penn State, and then another at the end with their game at Michigan and then a probable Big Ten Championship game against Michigan State or Nebraska.  

8) Clemson (6-1, 4-1, +8) - Poor Clemson.  All the hype - ACC Game of the Year! Hesiman Showdown! Top 5 Showdown! College Gameday plus ABC Primetime Game with Kirk and Brent!  Only to get blown out at home by your division rival 51-14.  Clemson got shut down by FSU's superior defense, and couldn't contain QB Jameis Winston.  So what's next for the Tigers?  They have another tough game next week at Maryland.  And a trip to the ACC championship seems unlikely, as they will need FSU to lose twice.  But they still have their season finale against South Carolina.  And the resume to get a BCS at-large invite; maybe even the Orange Bowl, if the Seminoles are in the Championship.

Strength of Schedule: -10.428.  

9) Texas Tech (7-0, 4-0, +7) - Texas Tech won at West Virginia 37-27.  They are at Oklahoma next week.

Strength of Schedule: -20.428.  Yup.  Computers gonna hate on the Big 12 this year.

10) Northern Illinois (7-0, 3-0, +7) - The big winners of Louisville's Friday night loss to UCF are Northern Illinois and Fresno State, who can now earn an automatic BCS berth by finishing in the Top 16 and ahead of the American Conference champion.  Right now, the human voters seem to prefer Fresno State over the Huskies, but that may change.  NIU beat Central Michigan 38-17, and plays Eastern Michigan next week.  

Strength of Schedule: -27.714.  Yup.  That includes wins against No. 115 Idaho, No. 116 Purdue, No. 112 Kent State, and No. 106 Akron.  MACtion!

11) UCLA (5-1, 2-1, +6) - UCLA QB Brett Hudley was "held" to a performance of 24/39, 192 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs by the stout Stanford defense, and the Bruins scored 0 first half points en route to a 24-10 loss.  UCLA must now run the same Stanford-Oregon gauntlet that may have ruined Washington's season.  They are also in a fight with Arizona State for 1st place in the Pac-12 South.  Strength of Schedule: -10.428

12) Fresno State (6-0, 3-0, +6) - Fresno State beat UNLV 38-14, and play at San Diego State next week.  Their Strength of Schedule is considerably stronger than Northern Illinois', with valuable wins against Rutgers and Boise State.  However, it is also dragged down by wins over Idaho, Hawaii, and FCS Cal Poly. Strength of Schedule: -21

13) Baylor (6-0, 3-0, +6) - On the one hand, Baylor beat Iowa State - a team that lost to Texas by 1 point and to Texas Tech by 7 - by a score 71-7.  On the other hand, their FBS opponents so far have a combined record of 14-20, and only one, Buffalo, is above .500.  They play Kansas (2-4) next week. Strength of Schedule: -18.667

14) Virginia Tech (6-1, 3-0, +5) - Strength of Schedule: -11.571

15) Auburn (6-1, 3-1, +5) - The Tigers beat Johnny Richpants and Texas A&M 45-41, and are now in second place in the SEC West, in control of their destiny. (A destiny which includes games against Georgia and Alabama.)  Some folks are calling this game a "stunner," but it really wasn't.  Remember, Texas A&M has an historically bad defense that gave up 615 yards to Auburn (avg. 494), 509 yards to Rice (avg: 402), 568 yards to Alabama (avg: 460), and 483 yards to Arkansas (avg: 356).  So, basically, if you play the Aggies, you're going to gain 100 yards more than your season average.  

Auburn is at home against Florida Atlantic next week.

Strength of Schedule: -12.571

16) Michigan (6-1, 2-1, +4) - Strength of Schedule: -14.571

17) Oregon State (6-1, 4-0, +4) - I love the Beavers, and if they hadn't lost their season opener 46-49 to Eastern Washington, I would probably have them in my Top 7 today.  They beat California 49-17 behind a 35/45, 481 yard, 4 TD, 0 INT performance from Sean Mannion, and a 13 catch, 232 yard day from Brandin Cooks.  However, the Beavers have ridden high by beating up on the lower half of the Pac-12 (at Utah, vs Colorado, at Washington State, at California.)  They finish the season with: vs Stanford, vs USC, at Arizona State, vs Washington, at Oregon.  Their offensive offensive numbers should come down to Earth a bit.  

Strength of Schedule: -19.857

18) UCF (5-1, 2-0, +4)
19) Louisville (6-1, 2-1, +1)
20) Ball State (7-1, 4-0, +1)

21) Michigan State (6-1, 3-0, +1)

22) Arizona State (5-2, 3-1, +1) - Strength of Schedule: -8.142

23) Washington (4-3, 1-3, +1) - Strength of Schedule: -4.857

24) Georgia (4-3, 3-2, 0) -  That's what you get, Georgia.  Going 4-3 against probably the toughest schedule in the country - one that includes 4 Top 25 teams - still earns you a spot in the Top 25.  The Bulldogs have been bounced from the AP, but I bet that they're in the BCS Top 25 tonight.  But for how long?  In my opinion, this is their bottom point.  They'll finish 4-1, get to 8 wins, and have a nice New Year's Day game against Northwestern or Michigan State.  

Strength of Schedule: -1.142

25) LSU (6-2, 3-2, 0) Strength of Schedule: -10.125

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