Sunday, October 13, 2013

Power Rankings - Oct 13

1) Alabama (6-0, 3-0, +11)It's week 7, and for the first time, I've got Alabama at 1 and Oregon at 2!  This is thanks to a rash of upsets - Michigan, Stanford, Georgia, and Oklahoma all got taken down - but will not last long, with Clemson-FSU and Stanford-UCLA coming up.  Nonetheless, Tide-Ducks is looking pretty damn imminent at this point. (Famous last words!) Kentucky was able to hang with Alabama for a quarter before getting blown out 48-7.  Alabama now gets three consecutive home SEC games: Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU.

2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +11) - In a hard fought Border War, the Ducks prevailed over the Huskies, 45-24.  Without De'Anthony Thomas, QB Marcus Mariota went into Super Mode: 24/31, 366 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, plus 88 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD.  Remember this game if he ends up as a Heisman Finalist.  The Ducks are home against Washington State next week.  

3) Missouri (6-0, 2-0, +11) - Tigers! Tigers! Tigers!  Missouri showed up in winning at Georgia 41-26.  Despite being outgained 454-375, the Tigers caused 2 fumbles and 2 fourth quarter interceptions to pull off the upset and move to 2-0 in the SEC.  They now also get three straight home games: Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee.  Poor Tennessee.  

4) Clemson (6-0, 4-0, +10) - Tigers! Tigers! Tigers! Clemson avoided pullin' a Clemson, rallying in the 4th quarter to beat Boston College, 24-14, and set up the big showdown next weekend against Florida State.  A lot will be on the line in that game: Conference championships, national rankings, Heisman hopes.  It should be good.  

5) Miami (FL) (5-0, 1-0, +9) - Miami had a bye and plays North Carolina next week.

For the 3rd week in a row, Alabama has received 55 first place votes in the AP, and Oregon the other 5.  But I don't get why.  Four of those voters switched after Oregon beat Tennessee - the other after the Ducks had a bye week.  However, nobody seems to have changed their mind after Oregon beat the No. 16 team on the road by 3 touchdowns.  Why not?  I'm not saying that they must switch their votes.  I would just like a little insight into what they take into account when voting.

6) Ohio State (6-0, 2-0, +9) - Ohio State had a bye and plays Iowa next week.

So, for example, AP No. 10 LSU beat No. 17 Florida 17-6.  The next week, LSU is 6 and Florida is 22.  No. 2 Oregon beat No. 16 Washington 45-24, and the next week Oregon is No. 2 (still) and Washington is 20.  I get that the Ducks have a ceiling - but they don't get any reward for winning big against a good team? 

7) Florida State (5-0, 3-0, +8) - Florida State had a bye and plays Clemson next week.

The winner of Florida State vs. Clemson will be my #1 next week. This game will feature Clemson QB Tajh Boyd (7th nationally in pass efficiency, 16th in passing yards per game at 297.2) versus Florida State QB Jameis Winston (#2 in pass efficiency, 19th in pass yards at 288.2).  The winner will have two wins over nationally ranked teams, although I would probably value Clemson's win over Georgia higher than Florida State's over Maryland.  But that's not up to me. You see, there's a system at work now.  

8) UCLA (5-0, 2-0, +8) - Similarly, UCLA will be my number 2 if they can beat Stanford next week.  The Bruins handled Cal 37-10.  A win over Stanford would give UCLA three quality wins (Nebraska and Utah).  The Bruins will be having a whole lot of confidence coming into this game: Ranked in the top 10, 7th in the nation in yards per game and points scored.  They have to visit The Farm though, and Stanford's tough defense.  Right now, I'm thinking Stanford 21, UCLA 17.  But I reserve the right to change my mind.  

9) Stanford (5-1, 3-1, +7) - So, did Stanford get "exposed" in their 27-21 loss at Utah?  Not really.  We knew Utah was dangerous.  The teams had almost identical stats, and more or less traded turnovers.  Stanford had a 4th down on Utah's 6 with 51 seconds left to play, and Kevin Hogan just threw a bad pass.  However, remember that game against Army in week 2?  Stanford fell behind early before grinding out a 34-20 win.  And the Cardinal just watched Oregon decisively defeat a Washington team that they needed a little luck to beat at home.  Although they score 36 points per game, they are 72nd in the nation and 11th in the Pac-12 in yards per game, at 405.2.  That might be an issue going forward, especially as their schedule gets very, very interesting: vs. UCLA, at Oregon State, vs. Oregon, at USC.  

10) Washington (4-2, 1-2, +7) - Is it just me, or do the Fox Sports announcers openly root against Oregon?  On Saturday, they must have said six or seven times that the Oregon defense was weak, and that Washington's plan was to out muscle them and wear them down.  So, what happened? The Ducks outgained the Huskies 631 to 376, caused two turnovers while committing 0, and, after the Huskies scored a 3rd quarter touchdown to cut the lead to 31-24, the Ducks allowed exactly 20 4th quarter yards on 13 plays.  Although Washington must be disappointed in going 0-2 against the Ducks and Stanford, they still have a lot to play for.  They're at Arizona State next week.  

11) Georgia (4-2, 3-1, +6) - I hate Georgia.  I'm so glad that they lost.  Yes, I know that they were basically playing without any of their offensive players, but still, this game felt good. The Bulldogs had already stolen wins from LSU and Tennessee, but you can only go to that well so many times. After falling behind in the 1st half, it looked like Aaron Murray was going to lead yet another comeback when they cut to the lead to 28-26.  But then Missouri got tough, forced turnovers, and came away with the win.  Georgia is at Vanderbilt next weekend.  

Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina now all 1 conference loss, with Mizzou undefeated.  Florida still has to play all three; South Carolina is at Mizzou and home against Florida.  Missouri hosts Florida and South Carolina, as well as Texas A&M.  So Georgia still has a path to the SEC Championship, albeit a narrow one.  

12) Texas Tech (6-0, 3-0, +6) - The Big 12 is a mess! I love it! Texas' huge upset of Oklahoma knocked the Sooners out of the top spot in the conference (as well as the chase for the national championship), leaving Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor as the three teams without a conference loss.  Of course, none of those teams play each other until the end of the season: Tech plays Baylor in Arlington on Nov. 16, is at Texas on Nov. 28 (Thanksgiving), and Texas is at Baylor on Dec. 7.  I'm betting that the Big 12 champ will have at least 2 losses this year.  Also, trivia: The last Big 12 champ from the state of Texas that was not Texas was Texas A&M, in 1998.  

Other weird trivia: Texas Tech's last official conference championship was 1994 in the Southwest Conference.  Texas A&M went 6-0-1 in conference that year, but was banned from the postseason for boosters paying students (gee, somethings never change.)  So Texas Tech - who went 4-3 in conference and 6-6 over all - got to claim a co-championship along with Texas, Baylor, TCU, and Rice.  They played in the Cotton Bowl that year and lost to USC, 55-14. 

13) Louisville (6-0, 2-0, +6)

14) Northern Illinois (6-0, 2-0, +6)

15) LSU (6-1, 3-1, +6) - Tigers! Tigers! Tigers! LSU beat Florida 17-6, and have an interesting road game next week against Mississippi.  LSU is still my dark horse to win the SEC.  The SEC East is beating each other up.  The Tigers still have challenges ahead against Alabama and Texas A&M.  They can win.

Meanwhile, the Gators suck.  They have the 96th most prolific offense in the country.  They have wins against Toledo (3-3), Tennessee (3-3), Kentucky (1-5), and Arkansas (3-4).  Missouri's going to beat them next week.  Over-under 6.5 wins for Florida on the season.  

16) Fresno State (5-0, 2-0, +5)

17) Houston (5-0, 2-0, +5) - Houston beat Memphis 25-15.  Next week it will be Cougars versus Cougars as they play at BYU.  

The American Conference runner up goes to the Russell Athletic Bowl. 

18) Baylor (5-0, 2-0, +5) - Baylor was on upset alert for a while against Kansas State, trailing 25-21 in the fourth quarter before coming back for the win, 35-25.  Their offense looked mortal for the first time this season, gaining "only" 451 yards on 7.9 yards per play.  As it turns out, starting the season with 3 home games against Wofford, Buffalo, and Louisiana Monroe might inflate your stats a little! The Bears play Iowa State next week.  

19) Virginia Tech (6-1, 3-0, +5) - Good old, boring, Virginia Tech.  They beat Pittsburgh 19-9, allowing 210 yards on yards per play. They gave up 23 rushing yards on 0.9 yards per play.  They play Duke next week.  

20) Auburn (5-1, 2-1, +4) - Tigers! Tigers! Tigers! Auburn beat FCS West Carolina 62-3.  Auburn could be the ultimate spoiler in the SEC.  They're last two games are both at home where they are 5-0, against Georgia and Alabama.  They are at Texas A&M next week.  

21) Michigan (5-1, 1-1, +3) - I know I should never root for Penn State and their rapist protection program, but I was glad when Michigan went down on the road in a very exciting triple overtime game, 43-40.  Any game that features a combined 5 missed field goals is bound to be exciting, and I'm glad that the Wolverines - who, remember beat Akron 28-24 and Connecticut 24-21, finally ran out of luck.  They're at home against Indiana next week.  

22) Oregon State (5-1, 3-0, +3) - Now, y'all know that I am a huge Marcus Mariota fan and, while I think he's one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the country, he might be the number 2 quarterback in the state.  On Saturday, the Beavers thrashed Washington State 52-24 (you know, the Washington State same team that held USC to 7 points), and QB Sean Mannion was 34/51, 493 yds, 4 TDs and 1 INT.  Mannion is #1 in the country in passing yards per game, and total offense per game, and WR Brandin Cooks is #1 in the country in receiving yards per game and receptions per game.  (Also, CB Steven Nelson is #1 in the country in interceptions per game.)  The Beavers have yet to play any top ranked opponents, but they have beaten Utah and WSU.  And they're one missed field goal against Eastern Washington from being undefeated. They're at Cal next week, then have a very interesting home game against Stanford the week after that.  

23) South Carolina (5-1, 3-1, +3)

24) Utah (4-2, 1-2, +2) - Utah won their first win against a top-5 time since beating Alabama in the 2009 Sugar Bowl.  And we knew this was coming, after barely losing at home to both Oregon State and UCLA.  They'll need some help if they want to compete in the Pac-12 South - they've already lost to UCLA - but they now have two very winnable games on the road: at Arizona and at USC.  

25) UCF (4-1, 1-0, 0)

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