The State of the Pac-12

Three weeks into the season, and there isn't a whole heck of a lot that we can tell about the Pac-12. Overall, the conference's early showings have not met expectations, highlighted of course by Oregon coming out flat against LSU, but also including Oregon St.'s overtime loss to Sacramento St., Washington's last-minute "win" against Eastern Washington, and Arizona's dismantling against a superior opponent in Oklahoma St. However, it hasn't been all bad news for the conference, and I believe that today could go a long way in answering a lot of our questions about how good the Pac-12 actually is.

As of now, I break down the Pac-12 teams into four broad and vague categories:

1) The Big Two: Stanford and Oregon

2) Better than Average: Arizona St., USC, Utah

3) Middling: Washington, Washington St., California, Arizona

4) Really, Really, Bad: Oregon St., UCLA, Colorado

But these categorizations, of course, don't hold. Could Arizona St. actually be an elite team? Has Washington St. merely benefited from a weak schedule? Could UCLA actually be competitive in the South division? To try and clarify the picture a little bit, let's look at the Divisional breakdown:

NORTH:

1a) Stanford

1b) Oregon

3) Washington

4) California

5) Washington St.

6) Oregon St.

SOUTH:

1) Arizona St.

2) USC (banned)

2) Utah (not banned)

4) Arizona

5) UCLA

6) Colorado

Hopefully, after today, we will know a lot more about the state of the conference. Why? Because:

1) #23 Texas @ UCLA: Really, Texas ought to dominate this game. However, UCLA crushed the Longhorns 34-12 last year, in Austin. And Texas hasn't exactly covered themselves in glory so far this year, beating Rice and then winning a sloppy 17-16 game at home against BYU. If UCLA can pull off the upset here, it will be a huge boost for their season. Hello, Poinsettia Bowl!

2) Washington @ #11 Nebraska: Again, the Pac-12 team is coming into this game as a heavy underdog. But UW kicked Nebraska's butt in last year's Holiday Bowl 19-7. And did you see that Nebraska-Fresno St. game? The Huskies ought to be better than Fresno St. But they better be better than they were against Eastern Washington. Pull off the upset, and Washington will be ranked, and will be set as the "fourth rail" in the Pac-12. Get stomped, and it's back to the drawing board.

3) #22 Arizona St. @ Illinois: I'm putting this one on the list because it's in my backyard. Funny sidenote: The ASU alumni association has bought audio ads on all of the buses in Champaign, saying "Go Devils!" Kind of a weird FU to the community, don't you think? Still, Arizona St. should win this game, especially if they want to be considered a contender for the Rose Bowl. Illinois, I think, is better than most people realize - as in, sixth or seventh in the Big Ten - and a strong win for ASU and Brock Ostweiler will cement their status as Pac-12 South favorites.