Notes on that last post

1) Conference championship games become more important in this schedule.  They'll act as essentially "quarterfinals."  I guess that conferences who don't have games should still qualify, but then you lead to weirdnesses like 2002, with Washington State representing the Pac-10 instead of USC.  And then you don't get issues like 2001, with Nebraska getting in despite losing their conference championship, or 2011, with Alabama getting in without playing in one.  (Also, why is Illinois in 2001? I think I did something wrong there.)

2) When I was thinking this up, I was expecting the Rose Bowl to be a semi-final about 2/3 of the time, not in 12 out of 14 seasons.  (Making the semis essentially the Rose Bowl and one floating Bowl Game.) You could change it so that it gets a semifinal only when both its champions are in the Final Four, which would be about half of the time.  But, then, it would still lose one of its champions for those other 5 out of 14 years.  The idea is that this benefit is offset by the fact that the Rose Bowl never hosts the National Championship, and the fact that the other bowls still get to play, they're just not part of the plus-one.

 3) I was surprised that Boise State never gets a shot at the Championship.  However, it pleases me that TCU and Utah do get their chances. 

4) This system might work best if you get rid of voting all together, and instead create some kind of RPI system for football.  Therefore, you would simplify the system by basically saying that you're looking for the four conference champions with the highest RPI. 

Since everyone seem so excited about the possibility of instituting a playoff into college football, and because I don't want to do my homework, I figured I'd come up with my own proposal. 

1) The Cotton Bowl gets a promotion, giving you five BCS Bowls: Rose, Fiesta, Cotton, Sugar, Orange.

2) National semi-finals will be played on New Year's Day, pitting the #1 vs #4 and #3 vs #2.  The four BCS Bowls (minus the Rose) will rotate playing hosts to the semi-finals.

The Final Four will be the four highest ranked teams according to the BCS who have won their conferences.  Sorry, SEC, but this maintains the priority of a team winning its conference.  (And, therefore, only 1 team per conference.)

3) The National Championship will be hosted by one of the four cities (Glendale, AZ, Dallas, New Orleans, Miami) and will be held one week after the semi-finals.  The host city will be one of the cities that was not designated as a semi-final.  This city will then host two games: Its bowl game, and then the NC.  By contrast, the semi-final cities will only have one game, which is their Bowl. 

4) The Rose Bowl Exception: The Rose will not be in the rotation to be a national semi-final, and Pasadena will never host the Championship.  In exchange, whenever either the Pac-12 or Big Ten champion is in The Final Four, the Rose "steals" them, and they will play their seeded opponent in the Rose Bowl, making the Rose one of the two semi-finals.  Furthermore, if both the Pac-12 and the Big Ten champ are in the Final Four, then they both get stolen and play each other in the Rose, regardless of seeding.

Here's how it would've ended up:

2011:  Semifinals: Rose (#3 Oregon vs. #4 Wisconsin), Fiesta (#1 LSU vs. #2 Oklahoma State) NC: New Orleans
2010: Semifinals: Rose (#2 Oregon vs. #4 Wisconsin), Orange (#1 Auburn vs. #3 TCU) NC:Dallas
2009: Semifinals: Cotton (#2 Texas vs. #3 Cincinnati), Sugar (#1 Alabama vs. #4 TCU)  NC:Glendale
2008: Semifinals: Rose (#2 Florida vs. #3 USC) Cotton (#1 Oklahoma vs. #4 Utah),  NC: Miami
2007: Semifinals: Rose: (#1 Ohio State vs. #4 Oklahoma) Fiesta (#2 LSU vs. #3 Virginia Tech) New Orleans
2006: Semifinals: Rose (#1 Ohio State vs. #3 USC) Orange (#2 Florida vs. #4 Louisville) NC: Dallas
2005: Semifinals: Rose (#1 USC vs. #3 Penn State) Sugar (#2 Texas vs. #4 Notre Dame) NC: Glendale
2004: Semifinals: Rose (#1 USC vs. #4 Utah) Cotton (#2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Auburn) NC: Miami
2003: Semifinals: Rose (#3 USC vs. #4 Michigan) Fiesta (#1 Oklahoma vs. #2 LSU) NC: New Orleans
2002: Semifinals: Rose (#2 Ohio State vs. #4 Washington State), Orange (#1 Miami vs. #3 Georgia) NC: Dallas
2001: Semifinals: Rose (#3 Oregon vs. #4 Illinois), Sugar (#1 Miami vs. #2 Colorado) NC: Glendale
2000: Semifinals: Rose (#2 Florida State vs. #3 Washington), Cotton (#1 Oklahoma vs. #4 Florida) NC: Miami
1999: Cotton (#1 Florida State vs #4 Alabama) Fiesta (#2 Virginia Tech vs. #3 Nebraska) NC: New Orleans 
1998: Rose (#2 Florida State vs #3 UCLA) Orange (#1 Tennessee vs #4 Texas A&M) NC: Dallas

Two Sports Articles I Want to Write About

Prisoner's Dilemma: The connection between fan and inmate behavior, by Bill James

What Baseball Does to the Soul, by Colum McCann

Postseason Top 25

1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +24)
2) LSU (13-1, 9-1, +33)
3) Oklahoma State (12-1, 8-1, +23)
4) Oregon (12-2, 9-1, +18)
5) Arkansas (11-2, 6-2, +17)
6) Stanford (11-2, 8-1, +12)
7) Boise State (12-1, 6-1, +10)
8) Wisconsin (11-3, 7-2, +10)
9) Michigan State (11-3, 7-2, +11)
10) Houston (13-1, 8-1, +9)
11) USC (10-2, 7-2, +8)
12) Kansas State (10-3, 7-2, +8)
13) Baylor (10-3, 6-3, +8)
14) Oklahoma (10-3, 6-3, +8)
15) South Carolina (11-2, 6-2, +7)
16) Michigan (11-2, 6-2, +6)
17) TCU (11-2, 8-0, +5)
18) Southern Miss (12-2, 7-2, +5)
19) Georgia (10-4, 7-2, +2)
20) Nebraska (9-4, 5-3, +1)
21) Virginia Tech (11-3, 7-2, -1)
22) West Virginia (10-3, 5-2, -2)
23) Penn State (9-4, 6-2, -2)
24) Clemson (10-4, 7-2, -3)
25) Auburn (8-5, 4-3, -4)

Brigham Young (10-3, 0-0, -5)
Texas (8-5, 4-5, -6)
Cincinnati (10-3, 5-2, -8)
Florida State (9-4, 4-3, -10)
Rutgers (9-4, 4-3, -12)
Notre Dame (8-5, 0-0, -12)
Georgia Tech (8-5, 5-3, -13)
Virginia (8-5, 5-3, -17)

Winners and Losers

With only four bowl games left, here are the current standings for the 2011-2012 bowl season:

Big 12: 6-1 (1 game left)
Big East: 3-1 (1 game left)
C-USA: 3-1 (1 game left)
MAC: 3-1 (1 game left)
SEC: 4-2 (3 teams left)
Sun Belt: 1-1 (1 game left)
Big Ten: 4-6
MWC: 2-3
Pac-12: 2-5
ACC: 2-6
WAC: 0-3
Notre Dame: 0-1

The big, big winner here, if I'm a computer reading this, is the Big 12. Remember, the Big 12 also had by far and away the best non-conference record during the regular season. At worst, the Big 12 will finish the bowl season with a .750 record. This is a little ironic because the Big 12 keeps threatening to rip itself apart, despite constant and consistent on-field success. In addition, even if you trade two of its bowl winners - Missouri and Texas A&M - for their expected replacements ; TCU and West Virginia - then the conference, in my opinion, gets even stronger. So, next year, even if all the humans agree that the SEC is the strongest conference, expect the computers to give their edge to the Big 12 in the polls.

At 2-5, the Pac-12 is a loser, but it could have been a lot worse. Everything, of course, is fine with me, because the Ducks won the Rose Bowl. Stanford lost, but it was in OT after two missed field goals. We knew that the rest of the conference was middling at best, but really only Cal was a disappointment: Utah won, Washington set offensive records in losing to #12 Baylor, Arizona State got their butts kicked by a Boise State that should've been in the Sugar Bowl, and UCLA was already 6-7. Consider, also, how the loss of USC affected the bowl schedule. Oregon and Stanford would get still BCS bids (assuming an Oregon revenge in the Pac-12 championship.) Then everyone else gets bumped down. USC should be favored against Baylor, and UCLA would get bumped in favor of, probably, Washington. Suddenly, the Pac-12 is 4-3 instead of 2-5. Don't get me wrong: The Pac-12 is still behind the SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten. But I don't believe the gap is all that large.

The big loser is the ACC, going 2-6 with two BCS losses. They lost at least once to every other major conference, with their victories coming against Louisville and Notre Dame. Furthermore, bringing in Pitt and Syracuse is unlikely to boost the conference's football chops anytime soon. Their best hope is for Florida State to start living up to their inflated expectations. A bowl win against the Irish helps, but I will reserve judgement before I proclaim the Seminoles to be "back".

Introducing The Big-Mac Sun Wac Mountain East West Conference USA

East Division:
Cincinnati
Louisville
Rutgers
Connecticut
South Florida
UCF

West Division:
Boise State
San Diego State
Air Force
Colorado State
Nevada
Hawaii

South Division:
Houston
SMU
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Tulsa
East Carolina

North Division:
Ohio
Temple
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Army
Navy

The season would consist of 3 non-conference games, followed by an 8-game conference schedule, playing every other team in your division plus one team each from the other three divisions. Game 12 is a seeded 1-4 semifinal featuring the four division champs, and Game 13 is the conference championship.

Winner plays the 8th seed SEC team in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl!

My Top 25

1) LSU (13-0, 9-0, +34)
2) Oklahoma State (11-1, 8-1, +17)
3) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +18)
4) Stanford (11-1, 8-1, +13)
5) Oregon (11-2, 9-1, +13)
6) Arkansas (10-2, 6-2, +12)
7) Wisconsin (11-2, 7-2, +11)
8) Kansas State (10-2, 7-2, +10)
9) USC (10-2, 7-2, +8)
10) Michigan State (10-3, 7-2, +7)
11) Baylor (9-3, 6-3, +7)
12) Oklahoma (9-3, 6-3, +7)
13) Houston (12-1, 8-1, +7)
14) Georgia (10-3, 7-2, +4)
15) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +4)
16) TCU (10-2, 8-0, +4)
17) Michigan (10-2, 6-2, +3)
18) Virginia Tech (11-2, 7-2, +3)
19) Nebraska (9-3, 5-3, +4)
20) Southern Miss (11-2, 7-2, +4)
21) Clemson (10-3, 7-2, +2)
22) Penn State (9-3, 6-2, +1)
23) West Virginia (9-3, 5-2, -4)
24) Northern Illinois (10-3, 8-1, -5)
25) Auburn (7-5, 4-3, -5)

Texas (7-5, 4-5, -7)
Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2, -9)
Virginia (8-4, 5-3, -12)
Georgia Tech (8-4, 5-3, -6)
Notre Dame (8-4, 0-0, -6)
Florida State (8-4, 4-3, -11)
Rutgers (8-4, 4-3, -13)