Saturday, October 22, 2011

Power Rankings 10/23

1) LSU Tigers (8-0, 5-0) - Well, the day of Armageddon is set, with both LSU and Alabama undefeated and 1-2 going into their Nov. 5 showdown in Tuscaloosa. Neither side has shown much in the way of any weaknesses up to this point, so somebody's going to have to get creative. Here's a mild little prediction: Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson will both be on the field for more than one play during the game.

2) Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0) - The SEC is definitely the best conference in the nation, but is it the deepest? I only have four ranked SEC teams, compared to six for the Big 12, five for the Big Ten, and four for the Pac-12. The AP has five ranked SEC teams, five Big 12, five Big Ten, and four Pac-12. After Arkansas, there's really a steep drop in the level of competition. Another small prediction: Alabama will run the ball no less than 60% of the time, and will pass it no more than 40% of the time.

3) Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-0, 4-0) - And just like that, it's the Cowboys who control their destiny in the Big 12. A lot of folks have been wondering why OK-State is valued so highly by the BCS computers, and I think I have something of an answer: 1) The Big 12's excellent non-conference record gives them an advantage against top schools from other conferences, 2) The computers value their non-conference wins over Arizona and Tulsa more than the humans, and 3) They have already beaten Texas A&M and Texas, two schools that the computers (and humans) absolutely adore.

4) Stanford Cardinal (7-0, 5-0) - So if I'm Chip Kelly, and I'm watching tape of the Cardinal's 65-21 dismantling of Washington, here's what I see: Stanford's 446 rushing yards, averaging 10.1 yards per play, with three different players rushing for more than 90 yards. I also see this: 1 punt, 0 turnovers. Oregon's linebackers better be ready.

5) Boise State Broncos (7-0, 2-0) - I spent most of last evening getting ready to justify giving the Broncos a big drop in the rankings after they beat Air Force 37-26 on the Smurf Turf. They still get dinged, as the Falcons may have figured something out in their, "Don't let Kellen Moore touch the ball," strategy. However, the future for Boise State looks much rosier now with Oklahoma and Wisconsin out of the way, and with all four teams ahead of them still facing tough competition down the road. Also, congrats to Moore on tying Colt McCoy for the all-time wins record. Just for fun, his stat line: 23/29, 281 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT.

6) Clemson Tigers (8-0, 5-0) - Here's my problem with Clemson: With wins over Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech, they have had as hard of a road to 8-0 as anybody. (Except LSU, obviously.) But whenever I put them on that Platonic Neutral Field against Boise State, I can't see anyway in which they come out on top. The only kind of data I could back this belief up with is the ACC's mediocre 6-7 record against other BCS conferences, and conference losses to Temple and UCF. Still, that's not Clemson's fault, right?

7) Kansas State Wildcats (7-0, 4-0) - Kansas State could turn out to be either the biggest winner or the biggest loser from Texas Tech's upset of Oklahoma. The Wildcats host the Sooners next weekend, and I see two distinct possibilities coming out of that game: Either Oklahoma takes out their frustrations on an overwhelmed K-State, and come away with a 56-21 win, or they come stumbling into Manhattan, unable to focus, and fall to a focused and prepared Wildcats team, 42-28. The X-factor should be the Kansas State defense, which held Kansas to less than 4 yards per play and forced 2 turnovers in a 59-21 victory.

8) Houston Cougars (7-0, 3-0) - Is Houston the new Boise State? Even if they get locked out of the National Championship, an undefeated Boise State would still have enough street cred to get a spot in the Sugar Bowl (Tyrann Mathieu, meet Kellen Moore) or the Fiesta Bowl (Greatest Game Ever, part 2?) Unfortunately, a 13-0 Houston squad would probably get nothing better than the Liberty Bowl, where they'd get Vanderbilt, or Mississippi State, maybe Tennessee if they're lucky.

9) Oregon Ducks (6-1, 4-0) - Neither LaMichael James nor Darron Thomas played in Oregon's 45-2 win over Colorado. I'm so glad that Chip Kelly reads this blog. While he's here, he should read what I just wrote about #4 Stanford. (Also, 45 to two? What's up with that?)

10) Oklahoma Sooners (6-1, 3-1) - Yes! I am so glad that Oklahoma lost - I have been rooting against them since the season started, both because of my personal dislike for the Sooners and because I was always disgusted by voters putting them ahead of LSU/Alabama. However, I think that they should still be considered the favorites to win the Big 12, and, who knows? All it takes is a few more weeks of this type of insanity to get some of these one-loss teams back into the Championship discussion. But first they've got to get past K-State.

11) Michigan State Spartans (6-1, 3-0) - There are maybe a million things to love about the Michigan State-Wisconsin game. Here are some of mine: 1) The joy of watching a game as an uninterested spectator. If the Ducks had been in this game, I would have been an emotional wreck. Instead, I got to watch two teams I both feel vaguely friendly towards play an epic game. 2) The aesthetic of the Big Ten. Call it throw back or classic or whatever, but there is just something cool about watching the "Green Team" versus the "Red Team." Reminds me of this other game between "two teams clad in resplendent uniforms." 3) Kirk Cousins and Russel Wilson. Cousins got the better of the showdown this weekend, with a stat line of 22/31, 290 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs, but they both come off as good people, and it would be awesome to see a rematch in December.

12) Arkansas Razorbacks (6-1, 2-1) - Arkansas had to rally from down 17 to beat bottom dwelling Ole Miss, 29-24. I don't really care, though, so let me talk about New Mexico. The Lobos - the worst team in FBS football for a while now - lost to TCU 69-0 on Saturday. There's no doubt that UNM is bad, but they also have a strangely hard schedule. In addition to TCU, they've also lost to Arkansas 52-3, Nevada 49-7, and Texas Tech 59-13. Still on the docket: Air Force and Boise State. The one good thing about being a crappy football team? People will pay you money to lose to them.

13) Wisconsin Badgers (6-1, 2-1) - What should the difference in the ranking be when the difference on the field was less than six inches? Here's a funny bit of trivia: The Big Ten and the ACC are the only BCS conferences to have had only one team represent them in the BCS National Championship Game. (Ohio State for the Big Ten, Florida State for the ACC.) This doesn't look like it will change any time soon for the Big Ten, but never say never. The Badgers still have the clearest road to the Big Ten championship, where they could get a rematch with either Michigan State or Nebraska.

14) Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1, 4-0) - Congratulations to Joe Paterno for career victory #408, 34-24 over Northwestern. You want Penn State out of the rankings? You beat them, then. (Before I eat my words, combined record of Penn State's next four opponents: 22-7. Also, their logos, in order, spell I NOW. That's neat.)

15) Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1, 2-1) - The Big Ten spotlight will be on Lincoln next week, as the Cornhuskers host the surging Spartans. More than any other, this game will probably decide who will represent the "Legends" division in the Big Ten championship. It will also be by far the toughest game left for the Spartans, so if Nebraska wants to get to a BCS game this year, now is their chance to show they deserve it.

16) Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1, 3-1) - Despite getting their butts kicked by Clemson 23-3 two weeks ago, Virginia Tech is still in good shape to return to the ACC Championship, and, possibly, revenge game. Key to their hopes will be a Thursday night game at suddenly struggling Georgia Tech, on Nov. 10th. Here's betting that the Hokies will be more than ready for the Yellow Jacket's triple option attack.

17) South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1, 4-1)

18) Michigan Wolverines (6-1, 2-1) - One of the big losers of the Michigan State-Wisconsin game are the Wolverines. The Spartans remain a game ahead of them in the conference standings, and own the tie-breaker. Even with their relatively weak schedule ahead, Michigan is going to need a lot of outside help to contend for a conference championship.

19) USC Trojans (6-1, 3-1) - The Trojans' 31-17 win over Notre Dame was their ninth win over the Irish in their last ten games, although USC still trails the overall rivalry - dating back to 1926 - 43-34-5. USC also ended Notre Dame's four game winning streak, although the Irish, at 4-3, are still in a nice spot for a good bowl game. The rest of their schedule: Navy, at Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, at Stanford. Any Irish fan who is not happy with an 8-4 season has totally lost touch with reality.

20) Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1, 2-0) - Remind me to never mention the Big East again. One week after I start hyping West Virginia vs. Rutgers for the conference title, both teams lose in inglorious fashion to inferior teams. Cincinnati is now in the driver's seat as the only team left without a conference loss. Remember how terrible last year's Oklahoma versus Connecticut Fiesta Bowl was? No? Oh, right, I forgot. Nobody watched it.

21) Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-1, 2-1) - Say hello to the Southern Miss Golden Eagles, who are now 6-1, with wins over Virginia, Navy, and SMU, and are in the running for a C-USA championship. Also say hello to cornerback Marquese Wheaton from Phoenix, Arizona, who had two INTs in their 27-3 win over SMU, one of which he returned for a touchdown.

22) Texas A&M Aggies (5-2, 3-1) - Welcome to the Lonestar section of my rankings. I have been hard on A&M, and the whole Big 12 as a conference, basically because I think they're all overrated. But the Aggies come in on top based on their head-to-head win over Tech and that their two losses so far are to #3 Oklahoma State and #12 Arkansas. They get Missouri at home before a Nov. 5 trip to Norman. Man, that's going to be a big day in college football!

23) Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2, 2-2) - As absurd as it sounds in 41-38 game with over 1,000 yards of combined offense, the key to the Red Raiders' win was defense. Specifically that they held Oklahoma to "only" 124 yards rushing, meaning that the Sooners had no choice but to take to the air. Another key stat: Oklahoma was only 5 for 17 on third down conversions, which resulted in 7 punts and a 35:01-24:59 edge for Tech in time of possession.

24) Texas Longhorns (4-2, 1-2)

25) Washington Huskies (5-2, 3-1) - I had no idea who to put in this spot. I wanted Arizona State, but they can't come back into the top 25 until Illinois loses again. Georgia's coming up strong and fast, but they had a bye week, and their best win so far has been against 4-3 Vanderbilt. The other nominees were Syracuse, but I just couldn't bring myself to include another Big East team at #25, and BYU, who dominated in a 56-3 win over... Idaho State.... So the Huskies it is, who drop five spots after their loss to Stanford, and who get a chance at redemption next week against Arizona before back-to-back games against the Ducks and the Trojans.

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