Smooth Jimmy's Locks of the Week: Week 4

1) (34) Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0, +73) at (13) Utah (3-0, 0-0, +162) - This is a big one.  With early Big 12 favorites like Baylor and Arizona State stumbling, Texas Tech and Utah have emerged as potential front-runners in the conference race.  Utah quarterback Devon Dampier has looked great in early action against the likes of UCLA and Wyoming, and maybe he'll be able to get something cooking against a Tech defense that has given up 183 passing yards per game.  Also, Utah is at home in this game, so I think the (slight) edge goes to the Utes.  Utah 28, Texas Tech 20. 

2) (42) Arkansas (2-1, 0-1, +55) at (35) Memphis (3-0, 0-0, +70) - If the American Conference wants to make a big statement in front of a nationally televised audience, this weekend is their chance.  First up will be the Memphis Tigers hosting the Arkansas Razorbacks.  These two teams have played each other only five times in history, with the latest being way back in 1998, a 23-9 win for the Razorbacks.  I really, really want to pick Memphis here, but I just can't bring myself to do it, especially since I think that Arkansas will be able to score at will in this game. But take the over.  Arkansas 49, Memphis 31. 

3) (121) Oregon State (0-3, 0-0, -145) at (21) Oregon (3-0, 1-0, +119) - The largest margin of victory in this 131-year long rivalry was in 2017, a 69-10 Ducks victory.  I don't think this one will top it, but it might.  Of course, you never know with it being a rivalry game, with Oregon looking ahead to Penn State next week, blah blah blah.  Expect a blow out.  Oregon 52, Oregon State 13. 

4) (11) Auburn (3-0, 0-0, +167) at (12) Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0, +166) - These are two teams who I did not expect to be contenders in the stacked SEC at the beginning of the season, but who both sure look like it now. I am still not sold on Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, who is right now 71/105 on the season, and has thrown for 944 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.  But I am sold on the Oklahoma defense, who is 4th in the nation in points allowed (6.3), 4th in total yards allowed (181), and 2nd in passing yards allowed (84.7). Oklahoma 23, Auburn 13.

5) (15) Tulane (3-0, 0-0, +158) at (2) Mississippi (3-0, 2-0, +251) - This is my upset special of the week.  The Mississippi Rebels have been living dangerously recently, beating Kentucky 30-23 and Arkansas 41-35.  They held lowly Georgia State to only 7 points, but also allowed 191 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry.  And Tulane has problematic quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who has rushed for 288 yards and 6 touchdowns on 7.2 yards per carry.  I anticipate turnovers to be a major factor in this game. Tulane 31, Mississippi 28. 

6) (75) Florida (1-2, 0-1, -8) at (1) Miami (FL) (3-0, 0-0, +268) - The terrible gauntlet for the Florida Gators continues.  And after dismantling South Florida last week, I do not expect Miami to let up this week.  Miami 38, Florida 14. 

7) (28) Illinois (3-0, 0-0, +87) at (44) Indiana (3-0, 0-0, +51) - The game of the week might be being played this week in Bloomington, Indiana.  Both the Illini and the Hoosiers are ranked in the AP Top 20, and are playing each other as ranked teams for the first time since 1950, when No. 12 Illinois shut out No. 19 Indiana 20-0 in Champaign.  And, even though Illinois is once again the higher ranked team, I have to hold my nose and pick against my hometown team.  Indiana 28, Illinois 17. 

8) (26) Michigan State (3-0, 0-0, +90) at (25) USC (3-0, 1-0, +91) - People are just starting to figure this out, but USC might be a problem.  Granted, the Trojans have been putting up video game-like stats against some of the worst teams in college football, but they are averaging 55 points per game versus 17 for their opponents.  They are averaging 9.6 yards per play from scrimmage over the course of three games. Sure, it's neat that this game is being played at ten o'clock at night, and is the Spartans versus the Trojans, but, uh, Odysseus might need more than ten years to get back to East Lansing, if you know what I'm saying. USC 41, Michigan State 21. 

 

Auburn or Ohio State?

It's still early in the evening, but Auburn's amazing win over Alabama already has Twitter abuzz about whether or not 1-loss Auburn ought to jump 12-0 Ohio State in the BCS Rankings.  I actually have Stanford now #2, assuming that they beat Notre Dame tonight.  But I might also be OK with Auburn jumping the Buckeyes.  So, let's compare Auburn and OSU:

Ohio State: (12-0, 8-0, +15)
Strength of Schedule: -26.75

W vs. (36) Buffalo (8-4, 6-2, -12) 40-20
W vs. (52) San Diego State (7-4, 6-1, -11) 42-7
W @ (123) California (1-11, 0-9, -49) 52-34
W vs. (FCS) Florida A&M (-72) 76-0
W vs. (21) Wisconsin (9-3, 6-2, -3) 31-24
W @ (79) Northwestern (5-7, 1-7, -30) 40-30
W vs. (42) Iowa (8-4, 5-3, -7) 34-24
W vs. (41) Penn State (7-4, 4-3, -6) 63-14
W @ (129) Purdue (1-11, 0-8, -60) 56-0
W @ (94) Illinois (4-8, 1-7, -32) 60-35
W vs. (96) Indiana (5-7, 3-5, -26) 42-14
W @ (50) Michigan (7-5, 3-5, -13) 42-41

Auburn: (11-1, 7-1, +16)
Strength of Schedule: -18.333

W vs. (56) Washington State (6-6, 4-5, -18) 31-24
W vs. (60) Arkansas State (7-5, 5-2, -22) 38-9
W vs. (70) Mississippi State (6-6, 3-5, -18) 24-20
L @ (24) LSU (9-3, 5-3, +2) 21-35
W vs. (37) Mississippi (7-5, 3-5, -14) 30-22
W vs. (FCS) Western Carolina (-72) 62-3
W @ (39) Texas A&M (7-3, 3-3, -8) 45-41
W vs. (100) Florida Atlantic (6-6, 4-4, -27) 45-10
W @ (110) Arkansas (3-9, 0-8, -42) 35-17
W @ (61) Tennessee (4-7, 1-6, -17) 55-23
W vs. (25) Georgia (8-4, 5-3, +1) 43-38
W vs. (2) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +15) 34-28

Things will continue to change.  My rule of thumb is that one loss is worth 7 SoS points, and Auburn's SoS is more than 8 points more difficult than Ohio State's.  The Buckeyes may be seriously punished by Wisconsin's loss today, which should mean that OSU ends the season with 0  wins against the Top 25, including 0 games higher than Auburn's one loss.  Furthermore, Auburn is 2-1 vs Top 25 and 4-1 vs Top 40, whereas Ohio State is 1-0 vs Top 25, 2-0 vs Top 40.  And, Ohio State's second best win is still against Buffalo, whereas Auburn's #1 win against Alabama, #2 vs. Georgia, #3 vs. Mississippi, and #4 vs. Texas A&M.  (Auburn is also 8-1 versus bowl eligible teams, compared to OSU's 6-0.) Basically, the fact that Auburn's fourth best win is against Texas A&M is why I would vote them ahead of the Buckeyes in the BCS.

Postscript: Let's talk about Stanford, who figures to be in my #2 spot tomorrow morning.

Stanford (10-2, 7-2, +17)
Strength of Schedule: -11.833

W vs. (103) San Jose State (6-6, 5-3, -25) 34-13
W @ (107) Army (3-7, 0-0, -34) 34-20
W vs. (14) Arizona State (9-2, 7-1, +8) 42-28
W @ (56) Washington State (6-6, 4-5, -18) 55-17
W vs. (23) Washington (8-4, 5-4, +2) 31-28
L @ (75) Utah (5-7, 2-7, -21) 21-27
W vs. (17) UCLA (8-3, 5-3, +5) 24-10
W @ (55) Oregon State (6-6, 4-5, -15) 20-12
W vs. (7) Oregon (10-2, 7-2, +11) 26-20
L @ (27) USC (9-3, 6-2, -1) 17-20
W vs. (123) California (1-11, 0-9, -49) 63-13
W vs. (33) Notre Dame (8-4, 0-0, -5) 27-20

Basically, any argument that Auburn ought to jump ahead of Ohio State also applies to the argument that Stanford ought to jump Auburn, especially if they all win their conferences.  Stanford is 4-0 against the top 25, 5-1 against the top 40, has 0 wins against the FCS, and convincingly beat Washington State when Auburn barely beat them.  Yes, they have that terrible road loss to #75 Utah.  But, consider this: Auburn's top five wins are: 2, 25, 37, 39, 56.  Stanford's are: 7, 14, 17, 23, 33.  (Ohio State's are: 21, 36, 41, 42, 56.)

My top 25

1) Florida State (12-0, 8-0, +25)
2) Stanford (10-2, 7-2, +17)
3) Auburn (11-1, 7-1, +16)
4) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +15)
5) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +15)

6) Northern Illinois (12-0, 8-0, +14)
7) Oregon (10-2, 7-2, +11)
8) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +11)
9) Missouri (11-1, 7-1, +10)
10) UCF (10-1, 7-0, +10)

11) Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1, +9)
12) Baylor (10-1, 7-1, +9)
13) Arizona State (10-2, 8-1, +9)
14) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +8)
15) Michigan State (11-1, 8-0, +8)

16) UCLA (9-3, 6-3, +6)
17) Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2, +5)
18) Louisville (10-1, 6-1, +5)
19) Fresno State (10-1, 7-1, +4) 

20) Duke (10-2, 6-2, +4)

21) Ball State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
22) Washington (8-4, 5-4, +2)
23) LSU (9-3, 5-3, +2)
24) Georgia (8-4, 5-3, +1)
25) Miami (FL) (9-3, 5-3, 0)

Wisconsin (9-3, 6-2, -3)

Cincinnati (9-2, 6-1, -3)
Texas (8-3, 7-1, -4)

USC (9-4, 6-3, -5)
Notre Dame (8-4, 0-0, -5)
Rice (8-3, 6-1, -5)
Arizona (7-5, 4-5, -6)
Penn State (7-4, 4-3, -6)
Minnesota (8-4, 4-4, -7)
Iowa (8-4, 5-3, -7)
Bowling Green (9-3, 7-1, -7)
Virginia Tech (7-4, 4-3, -8)
East Carolina (9-3, 6-2, -9)
Texas A&M (8-4, 4-4, -9)

Louisiana-Lafayette (8-3, 5-1, -10)
Boise State (7-3, 5-1, -10)

Middle Tennessee (8-4, 6-2, -10)

Marshall (8-3, 6-1, -10)
Houston (8-4, 5-3, -11)
Vanderbilt (8-4, 4-4, -11)

Buffalo (8-4, 6-2, -12)
Nebraska (8-4, 5-3, -12)

Brigham Young (7-4, 0-0, -12)

San Diego State (6-4, 5-1, -12)
Michigan (7-5, 3-5, -13)
Boston College (7-4, 4-3, -13)

Mississippi (7-5, 3-5, -14)
Georgia Tech (7-5, 5-3, -14)
North Texas (8-4, 6-2, -14)

Toledo (7-5, 5-3, -15)
Oregon State (6-6, 4-5, -15)
Tennessee (5-7, 2-6, -16)
Western Kentucky (8-4, 4-3, -16)
Utah State (8-4, 7-1, -16)
Old Dominion (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Rutgers (5-5, 2-4, -17)
Tulane (7-4, 5-2, -17)
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)

Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5, -18)
Washington State (6-6, 4-5, -18)

Maryland (7-5, 3-5, -18)
Mississippi State (6-6, 3-5, -18)
North Carolina (6-6, 4-4, -19)

Kansas State (7-5, 5-4, -19)
Syracuse (5-6, 3-4, -20)
UTSA (6-5, 5-2, -21)

Utah (5-7, 2-7, -21)

Arkansas State (7-5, 5-2, -22)

Pittsburgh (6-5, 3-4, -22)

UNLV (6-5, 4-3, -23)

Ohio (7-5, 4-4, -23)

Colorado State (7-6, 5-3, -25)

Central Michigan (6-6, 5-3, -25)
Indiana (5-7, 3-5, -26)

Louisiana-Monroe (6-6, 4-3, -27)
Florida Atlantic (6-6, 4-4, -27)
Texas State (5-6, 1-5, -28)
Wake Forest (4-8, 2-6, -28)
TCU (4-7, 1-7, -28)
West Virginia (4-7, 2-6, -28)

Akron (5-7, 4-4, -28)
San Jose State (6-6, 5-3, -25)
Northwestern (5-7, 1-7, -30)
Florida  (4-8, 3-5, -30)

Troy (6-6, 4-3, -30)
SMU (5-6, 4-3, -31)
South Alabama (5-6, 3-3, -31)
Illinois (4-8, 1-7, -32)
Wyoming (5-7, 3-5, -33)

Nevada (4-7, 2-6, -33)

Memphis (3-7, 1-5, -35)
Colorado (4-8, 1-8, -37)

Louisiana Tech (4-7, 3-4, -38)
South Florida (2-8, 2-4, -39)
Kent State (4-8, 3-5, -39)
Army (3-8, 0-0, -40)
North Carolina State (3-9, 0-7, -41)
New Mexico (3-8, 1-6, -41)
Arkansas (3-9, 0-8, -42)
Kansas (3-9, 1-8, -43)

Virginia (1-9, 0-7, -44)

Connecticut (1-9, 1-5, -44)

Iowa State (2-9, 1-7, -45)
Temple (2-10, 1-7, -47)
Tulsa  (3-9, 2-6, -48)

California (1-11, 0-9, -49)
Kentucky (2-10, 0-8, -50)

New Mexico State (2-10, 0-0, -52)
Eastern Michigan (2-10, 1-7, -54)
UAB (2-10, 1-7, -55)

Western Michigan (1-11, 1-7, -58)

Air Force (2-10, 0-8, -58)

UTEP (2-10, 1-7, -58)
Idaho (1-11, 0-0, -58)

Purdue (1-11, 0-8, -60)

Massachusetts (1-11, 1-7, -61)

Florida International (1-11, 1-7, -64)

Southern Miss (1-11, 1-7, -64)

Hawaii (1-11, 0-8, -64)
Georgia State (0-12, 0-7, -67)
Miami (OH) (0-12, 0-8, -71)

5 Reasons Why Auburn Will Win the BCS Championship

1) Cam Newton is the most dominant player in the country - This is not exactly a revelation. Newton leads the SEC in passing efficiency, rushing yards per game, total offense per game, and points. In the SEC Championship game, South Carolina's defense sold out to try and stop Newton running, and got burned in the air to the tune of 355 yards and four touchdowns. He's big and he's fast, and will be able to go around, over, and through anyone on Oregon's defense.

2) Auburn's offensive line will control the game - The average weight for an Auburn offensive line man is 301 lbs., compared to 246 lbs. for the average Oregon defensive line man. Behind this line, Newton will be able to maintain possession and control the tempo of the game. The blueprint for beating the Ducks is simple enough: Keep their offense off of the field. Auburn can and will do that.

3) Auburn's defense will contain the Ducks running game - The big question mark for Auburn going to the championship game is their defense, which has given up more than 30 points four times this season, not including 26 to lowly Arkansas State and 24 to even lowlier Chattanooga. But the Tigers' defensive backs are faster than anyone else the Ducks have faced this season. They will be fast enough to meet the Ducks' running backs at the ends, and will force to Oregon to become a passing team to generate any offense. And that's when Oregon will start making mistakes.

4) The Ducks will make mistakes - Oregon is 48th in the nation in turnovers, with 22, and 17th in penalties, with 95 for a total of 815 yards. In addition, Auburn's defense is one of the best at causing turnovers, forcing an opponent's turnover in 12.5 percent of all possessions this season. Against weaker teams, Oregon was able to compensate for those mistakes and make comebacks in the second half. They won't be able to do that against Auburn.

5) It's the SEC, Jack - There's a reason why Les Miles said that the SEC champion should automatically get to go to the BCS Championship game. In the last four games, the SEC has outscored their opponents 160-73. The conference simply plays better football than anyone else in the country, and that trend will continue this year once again.

(Next Time... 5 Reasons Why Oregon Will Win)