Week 5 Power Rankings: Don't Bet On Sports

 

1) Mississippi Rebels (5-0, 3-0, +504) - One of the persistent things of this week's power rankings is going to be that I am glad that I don't bet money on college football games.  Two weeks after going 8 for 9 in my picks, I probably went 1 for 9 this week.  Mississippi, in particular, has been a bad pattern for me, as I picked against them against Tulane, and then again against LSU.  Instead, the Rebels and their quarterback Trinidad Chambliss lit up what I thought was a pretty good Tiger defense for 314 passing yards and 484 total yards in a 24-19 victory. 

One of the disadvantages of my ranking system is that it has a tendency to over-weigh early season wins.  Mississippi is the benefactor of this system this season, as their wins against Arkansas, Tulane, and LSU have given them approximately a game and a half lead over the next group of teams (i.e., Texas A&M, Miami, Ohio State).  This means that the Rebels will probably have to lose not once but twice before they significantly drop in these rankings.  And maybe that will happen, but not for a while.  They do have back-to-back road games against Georgia and Oklahoma in October.  But do I dare pick against them in those games?  I'm not so sure anymore. 

2) Texas A&M Aggies (4-0, 1-0, +342) - Do I believe that Texas A&M is actually the second best team in the country?  No, not really.  But these rankings shouldn't be about what I believe, they should be about what I know, and I know that the Aggies are 4-0 with an SEC win, a win over a Power 5 team in Notre Dame, and 0 wins against FCS teams, and for now that's good enough to be my No. 2 team.  Their four wins are against No. 31 Auburn (+148), No. 40 Notre Dame (+106), No. 51 Utah State (+58), and No. 64 UTSA (+4).  Now, maybe they haven't looked particularly good at times against all (or any) of these opponents.  But beauty is in the eye of the beholder, is it not?

3) Miami Hurricanes (4-0, 0-0, +330) - The Hurricanes were on a bye this week.  Unfortunately for them, their opponents next weekend, Florida State, lost 46-38 in overtime to the Virginia Cavaliers, thus taking a little bit of a shine off of their showdown.  On the other hand, FSU's loss should make Miami's path to the ACC Championship a little easier.  If the Hurricanes can win next week in Tallahassee, then they will have the tie-breaker over Florida State in the conference standings, and should be the presumed favorite to at least play in the conference championship game in Charlotte. 

4) Iowa State (5-0, 2-0, +326)

5) Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0, +320) - So I'm not going to say that I went so far as to pick the Washington Huskies to upset Ohio State in Seattle on Saturday, but I definitely thought it would be closer than 24-6.  Washington was one of my sleeper picks to contend in the Big Ten, but they Dawgs shat the bed against the Buckeyes.  I knew Washington was in trouble even when they were up 3-0 in the first half, because they had had a 1st and Goal at the Ohio State 2-yard line, and then went:

    -1-yard run

    False Start

    -2-yard run

    0-yard run

    Field goal

That is how you lose a football game, especially as an underdog. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State's run defense is elite.  Washington only gained 61 yards on 30 rushing attempts, for 2 yards per carry.  This is a week after the Ohio Bobcats gained 68 yards rushing against the Buckeyes on 34 carries for ... 2 yards per carry.  Next week they host the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who beat Rutgers 31-28 in a game in which they rushed 17 times for 38 yards, for 2.2 yards per carry.  This will be ugly. 

6) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0, 2-0, +315) - Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good, and it seems like the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are out to prove that every week.  They rallied from down 20-3 against Wake Forest, and needed a failed 2-point conversion to win 30-29 in overtime, one of a record six different overtime games over the weekend.  Georgia Tech now has 3 wins by one score or less, and all three of those wins have come down to the last minute.  But let me tell you this right now: Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate is going to have playoff implications this year, and it just might be for the team you least suspect. 

7) Vanderbilt Commodores (5-0, 2-0, +295) - Nerd Alert! Nerd Alert! The Vanderbilt Commodores have improved to 5-0 for the first time since 2008 behind the stellar play of quarterback Diego Pavia, who has completed 76.4% percent of his passes and thrown for 13 touchdowns and rushed for 2 more so far this season.  Vanderbilt defeated Utah State 55-35, and have scored 245 total points through their first five games, the most by any SEC team since 1933. 

Trap game next week for the Commodores at Alabama. 

And, for what it's worth, here is Utah State's schedule so far this year:

W vs (133) UTEP 28-16

L @ (2) Texas A&M 22-44

W vs (128) Air Force 49-30

W vs FCS McNeese 48-7

L @ (7) Vanderbilt 35-55

8) Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0, +292)

9) Arizona State (4-1, 2-0, +274)

10) Indiana Hoosiers (5-0, 2-0, +261) - I don't know what to make of the Indiana Hoosiers.  They're a mystery.  One week, they look like the best team in the country as they dismantle a top-10 opponent at home.  The next, they struggle on the road, and escape with a 20-15 win against the Iowa Hawkeyes, who are once again the most Iowa-y of all football teams.  Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been having a great season, but had his toughest outing yet, throwing his first interception of the year, and completing "only" 56 percent of his passes for "only" 233 yards and 2 touchdowns.  But Indiana and coach Curt Cignetti got the job done, and now get a bye week before a road game at Oregon. 

11) LSU Tigers (4-1, 1-1, +237) - The team that I might have been the most wrong about this season - and I wasn't alone - was the LSU Tigers, who suffered their first loss of the season, 24-19 at Mississippi.  As I mentioned above, the Rebels were able to light up LSU's vaunted defense.  However, more concerning is LSU's seeming ineptitude on offense.  Against Mississippi, the Tigers rushed for 59 yards, and were 2 for 11 on their third down conversions.  Against Florida, LSU rushed for 96 yards, and against Clemson they rushed for 108 yards.  Things are not trending in the right direction.  However, for the time being, LSU still benefits from being a one-loss team in the SEC.  They get a bye week next week to try to get things right before they host a similarly one dimensional South Carolina Gamecocks.

12) Oregon Ducks (5-0, 2-0, +227) - I went to Oregon this weekend for my mother's 71st birthday, and so was, ironically, not able to watch most of the Oregon-Penn State game.  I watched most of the first half with my family before we went out for dinner, and then we returned with about two minutes left in regulation.  And when Penn State scored a touchdown to tie the game with 30 seconds left, I was certain that we had gotten back just in time to watch Oregon choke the game away.  However, the Ducks rallied, with quarterback Dante "The Inferno" Moore running 3 yards to convert on 4th and 1, and throwing to Gary Bryant Jr. for a 25-yard touchdown to put Oregon up 30-24 in the second overtime.  And on the next play from scrimmage, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar threw an interception into the leaping arms of Dillon Thieneman to seal the victory, and my whole family went berserk in our living room.

This was one of the few games that I picked correctly, because I'm an Oregon fan.  And even though the final score reflects what most people thought - that the game was a toss-up, or a slight edge to Penn State - the box score shows that Oregon was considerably better, outgaining the Nittany Lions 424 to 276, and winning the time of possession 33:52 to 26:08.  Oregon now gets a bye week before they host another top 10 team in Indiana. 

13) Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1, 1-0, +226) 

14) Missouri (5-0, 1-0, +224)

15) Houston (4-0, 1-0, +216) 

16) Tulane (4-1, 1-0, +201)

17) Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0, +197)

18) Tennessee (4-1, 1-1, +191)

19) Memphis (5-0, 1-0, +188)

20) Duke (3-2, 2-0, +188)

21) South Florida (3-1, 0-0, +183)

22) Utah (4-1, 1-1, +180)

23) Louisville (4-0, 1-0, +175)

24) Louisiana Tech (4-1, 3-0, +174)

25) North Texas (5-0, 1-0, +172)

Smooth Jimmy's Locks of the Week: Week 4

1) (34) Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0, +73) at (13) Utah (3-0, 0-0, +162) - This is a big one.  With early Big 12 favorites like Baylor and Arizona State stumbling, Texas Tech and Utah have emerged as potential front-runners in the conference race.  Utah quarterback Devon Dampier has looked great in early action against the likes of UCLA and Wyoming, and maybe he'll be able to get something cooking against a Tech defense that has given up 183 passing yards per game.  Also, Utah is at home in this game, so I think the (slight) edge goes to the Utes.  Utah 28, Texas Tech 20. 

2) (42) Arkansas (2-1, 0-1, +55) at (35) Memphis (3-0, 0-0, +70) - If the American Conference wants to make a big statement in front of a nationally televised audience, this weekend is their chance.  First up will be the Memphis Tigers hosting the Arkansas Razorbacks.  These two teams have played each other only five times in history, with the latest being way back in 1998, a 23-9 win for the Razorbacks.  I really, really want to pick Memphis here, but I just can't bring myself to do it, especially since I think that Arkansas will be able to score at will in this game. But take the over.  Arkansas 49, Memphis 31. 

3) (121) Oregon State (0-3, 0-0, -145) at (21) Oregon (3-0, 1-0, +119) - The largest margin of victory in this 131-year long rivalry was in 2017, a 69-10 Ducks victory.  I don't think this one will top it, but it might.  Of course, you never know with it being a rivalry game, with Oregon looking ahead to Penn State next week, blah blah blah.  Expect a blow out.  Oregon 52, Oregon State 13. 

4) (11) Auburn (3-0, 0-0, +167) at (12) Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0, +166) - These are two teams who I did not expect to be contenders in the stacked SEC at the beginning of the season, but who both sure look like it now. I am still not sold on Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, who is right now 71/105 on the season, and has thrown for 944 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.  But I am sold on the Oklahoma defense, who is 4th in the nation in points allowed (6.3), 4th in total yards allowed (181), and 2nd in passing yards allowed (84.7). Oklahoma 23, Auburn 13.

5) (15) Tulane (3-0, 0-0, +158) at (2) Mississippi (3-0, 2-0, +251) - This is my upset special of the week.  The Mississippi Rebels have been living dangerously recently, beating Kentucky 30-23 and Arkansas 41-35.  They held lowly Georgia State to only 7 points, but also allowed 191 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry.  And Tulane has problematic quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who has rushed for 288 yards and 6 touchdowns on 7.2 yards per carry.  I anticipate turnovers to be a major factor in this game. Tulane 31, Mississippi 28. 

6) (75) Florida (1-2, 0-1, -8) at (1) Miami (FL) (3-0, 0-0, +268) - The terrible gauntlet for the Florida Gators continues.  And after dismantling South Florida last week, I do not expect Miami to let up this week.  Miami 38, Florida 14. 

7) (28) Illinois (3-0, 0-0, +87) at (44) Indiana (3-0, 0-0, +51) - The game of the week might be being played this week in Bloomington, Indiana.  Both the Illini and the Hoosiers are ranked in the AP Top 20, and are playing each other as ranked teams for the first time since 1950, when No. 12 Illinois shut out No. 19 Indiana 20-0 in Champaign.  And, even though Illinois is once again the higher ranked team, I have to hold my nose and pick against my hometown team.  Indiana 28, Illinois 17. 

8) (26) Michigan State (3-0, 0-0, +90) at (25) USC (3-0, 1-0, +91) - People are just starting to figure this out, but USC might be a problem.  Granted, the Trojans have been putting up video game-like stats against some of the worst teams in college football, but they are averaging 55 points per game versus 17 for their opponents.  They are averaging 9.6 yards per play from scrimmage over the course of three games. Sure, it's neat that this game is being played at ten o'clock at night, and is the Spartans versus the Trojans, but, uh, Odysseus might need more than ten years to get back to East Lansing, if you know what I'm saying. USC 41, Michigan State 21. 

 

My Top 25: She's Like A Rainbow

 Week 3 of the college football season is in the books!  For those of you keeping track at home, my Top 25 this week contains: 

• 10 teams from the SEC

• 3 from the Big Ten

• 5 from the ACC

• 3 from the Big 12

• 3 from the American

• 1 from C-USA???

• 3 Bulldogs

• 3 Tigers

• 1 Cougar

• 2 Officially sanctioned Native American tribes

• 0 Unofficial

• 5 Colors (Yellow, Golden, Crimson, Green X2)

• 4 weatherbased systems

1. Miami (FL) (3-0, 0-0, +268) - The Miami Hurricanes did not FAFO on Saturday, jumping right on their opponents, the Cinderella South Florida Bulls, and dominating them from beginning to end en route to a 49-12 win.  The most impressive stat of the night was Miami holding USF to only 40 total rushing yards for the game on 27 attempts for an average of 1.5 yards per rush.  The Hurricanes now have two impressive home wins, over Notre Dame (formerly coached by Lou Holtz) and South Florida (formerly coached by Lou’s son, Skip).  They’ll get a chance to add to their resumé in the coming weeks, with big games scheduled ahead versus Florida and at Florida State.  

2. Mississippi (3-0, 2-0, +251) - It’s best to think of this spot in the Power Rankings as reserved for the number one SEC team.  For now, that team is the Mississippi Rebels, who outlasted the Arkansas Razorbacks 41-35, and now have two SEC wins, both by one score.  Next week, the Rebels will be putting it all on the line against the Tulane Green Wave, in a game that has a lot more playoff implications now than I think anyone believed it would at the beginning of the season. 

3. Iowa State (4-0, 1-0, +241) - One of the themes of Week 3 was power teams fucking around and looking a little sus against supposedly inferior competition.  One of these culprits was the Iowa State Cyclones, who defeated the Arkansas State Red Wolves 24-16.  Iowa State needed all four quarters to put away Arkansas State, as they went into the 4th quarter only up 17-13.  Nevertheless, the Cyclones are off to their second consecutive 4-0 start to the season, which is something they have never done before in their 133 years of playing football. They also maintain (for now) the inside track to the Big 12 Championship, as they have a favorable conference schedule ahead. 

4. LSU (3-0, 1-0, +237) - Aside from maybe Miami, the LSU Tigers have been the most impressive team to me during the early stages of the season.  They outlasted the Florida Gators in Baton Rouge 20-10, notably causing Florida quarterback DJ Lagway to throw five interceptions, and now get a warm-up game against Southeastern Louisiana before they travel to play Ole Miss. 

And what about Florida?  I honestly almost feel bad for the Gators (almost! I do not like the Gators!) with the absolutely brutal schedule that they have to play this year (rankings are my own, but the official rankings will tell you a similar story): 

W vs FCS Long Island

L vs (10) South Florida

L at (4) LSU

At (1) Miami (FL)

Vs (57) Texas

At (6) Texas A&M

Vs (24) Mississippi St

Vs (17) Georgia

At (49) Kentucky

At (2) Mississippi 

Vs (48) Tennessee 

Vs (18) Florida St 

It’s not a good sign when the easiest team left on your schedule is Texas. 

5. North Carolina State (3-0, 1-0, +232) -

Follow me on Twitter @UmpDump2005 

6. Texas A&M (3-0, 0-0, +225) - Is Texas A&M the best college football team in the state of Texas?  The Aggies got their signature win on Saturday night, winning a 41-40 barnburner against Notre Dame in the Game of the Year of the Week (Part Deux).  I have tremendous respect for Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman, who had his team go for it on 4th and 1 from the Texas A&M 18-yard line to set up the go-ahead touchdown instead of settling for the field goal.  However, the Irish then had a bad snap/hold and missed their extra point kick, allowing the Aggies to drive 74 yards in 13 plays to score the winning touchdown AND extra point.

Notre Dame might now be the greatest 0-2 team in history.  They have lost by 3 points on the road to a Top-5 team, and by 1 point at home to at least a Top-10 team.  Their schedule gets significantly easier from here on out, but it may be too late for them in terms of the playoff race.

7. Ohio State (3-0, 0-0, +215) - Ohio State was another team that dicked around for a while on Saturday before finally putting away an inferior opponent.  They beat the Ohio Bobcats of the MAC 37-9, but led at one point in the Third Quarter by only 13-9, and didn’t really put the game away until the 4th.  Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin was decent, going 25 /32 for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns, but also threw 2 interceptions.  This might become an issue later on in the season.  Just sayin’. 

Ohio, meanwhile, have themselves in an interesting position.  They didn’t embarrass themselves against Ohio State, they beat West Virginia, and they only lost to Rutgers by 3 points.  I would expect Ohio to be contenders this year in the MAC, and keep your eye on them for some potentially hilarious late-season victory-by-transitive-property scenarios, since they’ve already beaten West Virginia, who just beat Pittsburgh.

8. Houston (3-0, 1-0, +198) - Is Houston the best college football team in the state of Texas?  Probably not, but they looked very good in their Big 12 opener, a 36-20 win over the Colorado Buffaloes.  Curiously, this is only the second ever meeting between Houston and Colorado, the other being a 29-17 Colorado victory in the Astro-Bluebonnet Bowl.  The Cougars turned what was a close game into a laugher in the second half, when they outscored the Buffaloes 20-6, and caused two interceptions and a turnover on downs.  Houston gets a bye next week before they travel to Corvallis to take on the sadsack Oregon State Beavers, followed by a key Texas showdown against rivals Tech!

9. Georgia Tech (3-0, 1-0, +186) - One of the great things about college football is definitely the “Any Given Sunday” factor; that even a week of games that might look a little boring on paper can turn out and give you a slate of great games.  This was true of the Georgia Tech-Clemson game, in which Tech managed to pull out a 24-21 win over the Tigers.  And in a season that has had us see more than our fair share of botched end-of-game clock management, a special shout-out ought to go out to Georgia Tech coach Brent Key.  After Clemson scored a touchdown to tie the game with 3:26 left, the Yellow Jackets executed a 10-play, 38-yard drive that ended with kicker Aidan Birr hitting a 55-yard field goal - the longest game winning field goal in Georgia Tech history.  Tech also ran an incredibly clean game, especially for their style of play, committing 0 turnovers and only 3 penalties for 26 yards. 

10. South Florida (2-1, 0-0, +182)

11. Auburn (3-0, 0-0, +167)

12. Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0, +166)

13. Utah (3-0, 0-0, +162) 

14. Vanderbilt (3-0, 1-0, +161)

15. Tulane (3-0, 0-0, +158) 

16. California (3-0, 0-0, +156) - Pac-12 After Dark is alive and well in Berkeley!  Yes, the California Golden Bears of the Atlantic Coast Conference defeated their hated tawny mammalian rivals, the Minnesota Golden Gophers, 27-14, in a game that kicked off at 7:30 local time, or 10:30 P.M. at the ACC headquarters in Charlotte.  Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele went 24/38 for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, and he could start getting a little Heisman buzz.  By me.  I hereby buzz. Call could also be a dark horse (a black bear?) in the ACC title race, as they do not have to play Clemson, Miami, or Florida St. this year.

Also of note in the ACC: Stanford got their first win of the season, 30-20, over Boston College which means, according to Google AI, that this was the first time that both Stanford and Cal won home football games on the same night since September 3, 2022, when Stanford beat Colgate and Cal beat UC Davis.  This also means that you had the Golden Bears, the Golden Gophers, and the Cardinal all playing football at the same time within 40 miles of each other.  And I was going to say the Golden Eagles, but I guess that BC is just the Eagles.  I fucking hate the Eagles, man.  

17. Georgia (3-0, 1-0, +152) - In the Game of the Year of the Week, the Georgia Bulldogs came back to defeat the Tennessee Volunteers 44-41 in overtime to secure their ninth consecutive win in that series.  Although there are still some questions about them, I do think that Georgia will become an elite team, and at this point I would pick them to eventually win the SEC.  Now, about that game … 

After squandering a 21-7 first half lead, Tennessee actually fought back to tie the game 41-41, and was driving with the ball and a chance to win the game in regulation.  After they got into field goal range, Tennessee coach Josh Heupel did something curious.  The Volunteers had just ran the ball 4 yards to set up a field goal attempt at the Georgia 20-yard line with seven seconds left.  But then Heupel sent the offense back out on the field to do - what, exactly?  The ball was already where they wanted it.  Did he feel like they needed another extra yard?  He didn’t have enough time to take a shot at the endzone.  What was he trying to do?  As it turned out, the offense got called for a false start, and ended up being pushed back 5 yards.  They then attempted the field goal, and Tennessee kicker Max Gilbert pushed it wide right.  Now, the kick had enough distance, so maybe the last second penalty didn’t matter.  But we’ll never know …

18. Florida State (2-0, 0-0, +137)

19. Missouri (3-0, 0-0, +130)

20. North Texas (3-0, 0-0, +122) - Is North Texas the best college football team in the state of Texas?  No, no they are not.  However, the Mean Green from Denton, Texas looked like it in 59-10 destruction of the Washington State Cougars, a game in which they caused five total turnovers and outgained Wazzu 410 yards to 275.  If nothing else, UNT should be able to throw their hats into the ring for the American Conference championship, and, therefore, for the Furious Five at-large bid for the playoff. 

21. Oregon (3-0, 1-0, +119) - Oregon looked less than overwhelming in their Big Ten opener against the Northwestern Wildcats.  In fact, they looked exceptionally whelming.  The Ducks “only” outgained Northwestern 373 yards to 313, and there were moments when it looked like the Wildcats offensive line was able to push the Oregon defenders off their marks.  However, Oregon was able to hold Northwestern scoreless until the 4th quarter, and Oregon quarterback Dante “The Inferno” Moore finished 16/20 for 178 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.

This game kicked off at 11:00 a.m. Central Time (9:00 a.m., PT) and was played in front of 12,023 fans at Northwestern’s Martin Stadium in Evanston, Illinois.  Martin Stadium is actually Northwestern’s field for their soccer and lacrosse teams, and is only temporarily hosting their football team while their football stadium is being renovated.  This means that Oregon got to be only one of 13 visiting teams that will ever play there. 

22. Alabama (2-1, 0-0, +111) - Alabama is going to be just fine.  Their defense was dominant against a Wisconsin team that I thought could have given them some troubles, allowing only 92 rushing yards on 34 attempts and causing 2 turnovers en route to a 38-14 win.  However, questions remain about the Crimson Tide’s offense, and they don’t have a lot of time to figure it out.  They get a bye next week before they have to play at Georgia on Sep. 27th. 

23. Louisiana Tech (2-1, 1-0, +96) - I don’t know what the fuck Louisiana Tech is doing here, either.  Congratulations on reading this far.  

24. Mississippi State (3-0, 0-0, +91) 

25. USC (3-0, 1-0, +91) 

Most Impactful Games of the Upcoming Weekend

 

1) (5) North Carolina State (2-0, 0-0, +159) at (64) Wake Forest (2-0, 0-0, +6) - Early season ACC match-up, and test to see if NC State belongs in the conversation for conference champs.  Wake Forest beat Kennesaw State 10-9 in Week One.  Current spread is NCSU (-6.5).  They'll win by more than that.

2) (28) Oregon (2-0, 0-0, +73) at (91) Northwestern (1-1, 0-0, -44) - Oregon is currently 27.5 point favorites at Northwestern.  So far, it seems like the Wildcats haven't done or said anything to piss off Dan Lanning.  I'd still bet on Oregon to cover the spread before they pull their starters.  Even with a win, though, they probably won't crack my Top 25.  (Because Northwestern is very bad.) 

3) (40) Clemson (1-1, 0-0, +52) at (18) Georgia Tech (2-0, 0-0, +89) - Clemson is 2.5 point favorites, so it's barely considered "upset watch".  Do you trust Dabo Swinney to fix what ails the Tigers?  My heart wants Georgia Tech, but my brain says Clemson.

4) (43) Wisconsin (2-0, 0-0, +48) at (59) Alabama (1-1, 0-0, +15) - Alabama three touchdown favorites at home?  Bet on Wisconsin to #CoverTheSpread .

5) (47) Georgia (2-0, 0-0, +39) at (24) Tennessee (2-0, 0-0, +83) - I have no idea what to expect.  Georgia is 3.5 point favorites on the road at Tennessee.  We really haven't seen anything from the Bulldogs yet this season, and Tennessee did beat Syracuse, but then Syracuse needed a miracle to beat UConn, so what does that mean? I don't know.  Flip a coin and go with Georgia.  But don't surprised if both of these teams are in the playoff picture near the end of the year.

6) (2) South Florida (2-0, 0-0, +191) at (9) Miami (FL) (2-0, 0-0, +132) - Game of the Century of the Week.  Probably the biggest game in the history of the USF Bulls.  Hard Rock Stadium will be rockin'. The winner of this game will probably be my No. 1 going into Week 4.  I like South Florida, but I also think that Miami is legit a title contender this year.  I predict something crazy happening (Gramatica missing game winning FG), and the Hurricanes escaping with a win, 32-30.

7) (76) Florida (1-1, 0-0, -5) at (3) LSU (2-0, 0-0, +176) - LSU is 7.5 point favorites at home against Florida. They will win by more than that.  By a lot more than that.

8) (4) Texas A&M (2-0, 0-0, +168) at (80) Notre Dame (0-1, 0-0, -14) - This is another game where I have no clue what will happen. Texas A&M has two decent wins (scores of 42-24 and 44-22) over two decent programs (Texas-San Antonio and Utah State).  Notre Dame has one tough loss on the road against a Top 5 Team, 24-27 at Miami.  The Aggies are 6.5 point underdogs on the road in South Bend, so let's pick them to win, just for fun.  Texas A&M 27, Notre Dame 21

9) (96) Duke (1-1, 0-0, -54) at (12) Tulane (2-0, 0-0, +117) - This was going to be my upset special, except I just found out that Tulane is 1.5 point favorites at home against Duke.  Pick the Green Wave to cover the spread.

Power Rankings - Sept. 21

1) Penn State (4-0, 1-0, +9) - Everybody kind of looked bad on Saturday.  Except for Penn State, who won their game 48-7.  Of course, that’s probably because they were playing UMass, who is ranked 126th out of 128 FBS teams, Penn State has had it pretty easy so far this year, and, even though they still have to play Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State, let’s face it, that’s not the most daunting task at this point.  According to my rankings, they’ve already beaten their toughest opponent of the year - Rutgers.  

2) Texas A&M (4-0, 1-0, +8)

3) Oregon (4-0, 1-0, +8) - The Ducks had some serious problems in their first road game of the season, eventually holding on to beat Washington State, 38-31.  The offensive line, which featured a true freshman at right tackle and a walk-on at left tackle, allowed Marcus Mariota to be sacked 7 times.  And Washington State’s air raid offense was able to take advantage of the Ducks’ defensive deficiencies.  Oregon prides itself on forcing turnovers, and is willing to sacrifice yards in exchange for takeaways, but Washington State quarterback Connor Halliday managed to throw 43/63 for 436 yards, 4 TDs, and (most importantly) 0 INTs.  Still, the Ducks won, and get next week off to prepare for a Thursday night home and (hopefully) revenge game against Arizona.  That begins the meat of the Ducks schedule, who go the rest of the year  vs. #17 Arizona, at #18 UCLA, vs. #10 Washington, at #41 California, vs. #31 Stanford, at #25 Utah, vs. #88 Colorado, at #24 Oregon State.  Obviously, these rankings will change as the Pac-12 teams beat up on each other, but there are no gimmes on that list, and that’s the “easy” conference schedule, as it avoids both USC and Arizona State!

Here, I googled highlights of the Oregon-Washington State game, and found this for you:

In a related note, rugby players suffer from concussions at a much lower rate than American football players.  The reason, according to this article from Yahoo Sports, is that, unlike U.S. players, rugby players are taught not to lead tackles with their heads:

Rugby's contact rules are centered around the wrap tackle. A tackler can't just slam into the ballcarrier. He has to wrap his arms around and bring him to the ground. Tackling around the neck or head is illegal. Tackling low -- around the ankles or knees -- is fine, but because you have to wrap up, you're not barreling into a player’s knees and causing injuries the way a roll block in football can.Without helmets (some rugby players wear padded hats that are a little like football helmets from the 1920s, all they do is prevent scrapes), rugby players are taught from an early age to get their head to the side, and make contact with the shoulder. Cheek-to-cheek is the coach's joke, with the tackler’s cheek up against a ballcarrier's butt-cheek.

4) Mississippi State (4-0, 1-0, +7) - Mississippi State’s 34-29 win at AP No. 8 LSU was one of the most fun games of the entire day yesterday.  The Bulldogs got out to a big lead, 17-3 at the half and 34-10 in the fourth quarter behind the rushing of Josh Robinson (16 carries for 197 yards) and Dak Prescott (22 carries for 105 yards).   Then, with Death Valley mostly empty, the Tigers started a crazy 4th quarter comeback, inspired largely by their defense, who stopped Mississippi State twice on fourth down and forced a fumble.  LSU was able to drive to the Mississippi State’s 46 yard line, but their last second Hail Mary was intercepted.  (Unlike someone else’s last second Hail Mary!  See below.)  

In unrelated news, did you know that Mississippi State is the home of the Ulysses S. Grant presidential library, and its 31 volumes of his letters?  The more you know.  

5) Florida State (3-0, 1-0, +5) - FSU needed two missed Clemson field goals and a forced fumble on Clemson’s last drive of regulation to beat the Tigers in overtime, 23-17.  And no, Florida State, you get no credit for suspending Jameis Winston for a game for lewd comments when last year you gave him exactly 0 suspensions while he was the subject of an ongoing criminal investigation into rape allegations.    

6) Brigham Young (4-0, 0-0, +5)

7) Arkansas (3-1, 0-1, +5) - Here are my rankings for the SEC West teams as of this morning, September 21, 2014: 2, 4, 7, 9, 20, 23, 40.  For those of you at home, that’s six of seven teams in the top 25, and four in the top ten.  I root against the SEC; I am not biased against them.  (The SEC East, on the other hand, is kind of a hot mess right now.)

8) Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0, +4)

9) Alabama (4-0, 1-0, +4) - I know I do this every year, but I am still not ready to pencil Alabama in to the playoff bracket.  And, by that, I mean that I am not ready to pencil Alabama in as the SEC champion yet.  The Crimson Tide looked really sloppy in the first half against Florida until they buckled down, turning a game that was tied 21-21 in the third quarter into a 42-21 win.  

10) Washington (4-0, 0-0, +4)

11) Arizona State (4-0, 2-0, +4)

12) Duke (4-0, 0-0, +4)

13) Nebraska (4-0, 0-0, +4)

14) Marshall (4-0, 0-0, +4)

15) Georgia Tech (4-0, 1-0, +4)

16) North Carolina State (4-0, 0-0, +4)

17) Arizona (4-0, 1-0, +4) - Going into the fourth quarter at home against California, the Arizona Wildcats trailed 31-13.  They then proceeded to score an astounding 36 points in the fourth quarter, scoring touchdowns on five consecutive drives, to pull off the 49-45 win, including this hail mary touchdown with three seconds left on the clock:

It’s a heartbreaking loss for Cal, but don’t feel bad for the Golden Bears.  At 2-1, they’ve already doubled their win total from all of last season.  Although this was their 15th consecutive Pac-12 loss, they are improving by leaps and bounds. They could put a stop to that streak next week, when they get Colorado at home.  

18) UCLA (3-0, 0-0, +3)

19) Notre Dame (3-0, 0-0, +3)

20) Mississippi (3-0, 0-0, +3)

21) Baylor (3-0, 0-0, +3)

22) TCU (2-0, 0-0, +3)

23) Auburn (3-0, 1-0, +3) - In retrospect, this is much too low for Auburn, especially considering that they’ve already beaten my number seven team, Arkansas, by three touchdowns earlier in the season.  Right now, my system is overvaluing Arkansas’ wins over Texas Tech and Northern Illinois, while counting its loss to Auburn as a “good” loss.  On the flip side, Auburn’s 20-14 win at Kansas State on Thursday night is probably being undervalued.  Of course, that was a game that the Tigers had no business winning in the first place, needing two missed K-State field goals and two timely turnovers to pull it off.  Seriously, Auburn has had so much luck over the past two seasons in winning all of those “50-50” plays, all the tipped balls and tackles missed by a hair, that they’re either truly blessed, or about to have a serious regression to the mean of luck soon.  

I mean, watch this play at 1:10:

24) Oregon State (3-0, 0-0, +3)

25) Utah (3-0, 0-0, +3)