Week 5 Power Rankings: Don't Bet On Sports

 

1) Mississippi Rebels (5-0, 3-0, +504) - One of the persistent things of this week's power rankings is going to be that I am glad that I don't bet money on college football games.  Two weeks after going 8 for 9 in my picks, I probably went 1 for 9 this week.  Mississippi, in particular, has been a bad pattern for me, as I picked against them against Tulane, and then again against LSU.  Instead, the Rebels and their quarterback Trinidad Chambliss lit up what I thought was a pretty good Tiger defense for 314 passing yards and 484 total yards in a 24-19 victory. 

One of the disadvantages of my ranking system is that it has a tendency to over-weigh early season wins.  Mississippi is the benefactor of this system this season, as their wins against Arkansas, Tulane, and LSU have given them approximately a game and a half lead over the next group of teams (i.e., Texas A&M, Miami, Ohio State).  This means that the Rebels will probably have to lose not once but twice before they significantly drop in these rankings.  And maybe that will happen, but not for a while.  They do have back-to-back road games against Georgia and Oklahoma in October.  But do I dare pick against them in those games?  I'm not so sure anymore. 

2) Texas A&M Aggies (4-0, 1-0, +342) - Do I believe that Texas A&M is actually the second best team in the country?  No, not really.  But these rankings shouldn't be about what I believe, they should be about what I know, and I know that the Aggies are 4-0 with an SEC win, a win over a Power 5 team in Notre Dame, and 0 wins against FCS teams, and for now that's good enough to be my No. 2 team.  Their four wins are against No. 31 Auburn (+148), No. 40 Notre Dame (+106), No. 51 Utah State (+58), and No. 64 UTSA (+4).  Now, maybe they haven't looked particularly good at times against all (or any) of these opponents.  But beauty is in the eye of the beholder, is it not?

3) Miami Hurricanes (4-0, 0-0, +330) - The Hurricanes were on a bye this week.  Unfortunately for them, their opponents next weekend, Florida State, lost 46-38 in overtime to the Virginia Cavaliers, thus taking a little bit of a shine off of their showdown.  On the other hand, FSU's loss should make Miami's path to the ACC Championship a little easier.  If the Hurricanes can win next week in Tallahassee, then they will have the tie-breaker over Florida State in the conference standings, and should be the presumed favorite to at least play in the conference championship game in Charlotte. 

4) Iowa State (5-0, 2-0, +326)

5) Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0, +320) - So I'm not going to say that I went so far as to pick the Washington Huskies to upset Ohio State in Seattle on Saturday, but I definitely thought it would be closer than 24-6.  Washington was one of my sleeper picks to contend in the Big Ten, but they Dawgs shat the bed against the Buckeyes.  I knew Washington was in trouble even when they were up 3-0 in the first half, because they had had a 1st and Goal at the Ohio State 2-yard line, and then went:

    -1-yard run

    False Start

    -2-yard run

    0-yard run

    Field goal

That is how you lose a football game, especially as an underdog. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State's run defense is elite.  Washington only gained 61 yards on 30 rushing attempts, for 2 yards per carry.  This is a week after the Ohio Bobcats gained 68 yards rushing against the Buckeyes on 34 carries for ... 2 yards per carry.  Next week they host the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who beat Rutgers 31-28 in a game in which they rushed 17 times for 38 yards, for 2.2 yards per carry.  This will be ugly. 

6) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0, 2-0, +315) - Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good, and it seems like the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are out to prove that every week.  They rallied from down 20-3 against Wake Forest, and needed a failed 2-point conversion to win 30-29 in overtime, one of a record six different overtime games over the weekend.  Georgia Tech now has 3 wins by one score or less, and all three of those wins have come down to the last minute.  But let me tell you this right now: Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate is going to have playoff implications this year, and it just might be for the team you least suspect. 

7) Vanderbilt Commodores (5-0, 2-0, +295) - Nerd Alert! Nerd Alert! The Vanderbilt Commodores have improved to 5-0 for the first time since 2008 behind the stellar play of quarterback Diego Pavia, who has completed 76.4% percent of his passes and thrown for 13 touchdowns and rushed for 2 more so far this season.  Vanderbilt defeated Utah State 55-35, and have scored 245 total points through their first five games, the most by any SEC team since 1933. 

Trap game next week for the Commodores at Alabama. 

And, for what it's worth, here is Utah State's schedule so far this year:

W vs (133) UTEP 28-16

L @ (2) Texas A&M 22-44

W vs (128) Air Force 49-30

W vs FCS McNeese 48-7

L @ (7) Vanderbilt 35-55

8) Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0, +292)

9) Arizona State (4-1, 2-0, +274)

10) Indiana Hoosiers (5-0, 2-0, +261) - I don't know what to make of the Indiana Hoosiers.  They're a mystery.  One week, they look like the best team in the country as they dismantle a top-10 opponent at home.  The next, they struggle on the road, and escape with a 20-15 win against the Iowa Hawkeyes, who are once again the most Iowa-y of all football teams.  Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been having a great season, but had his toughest outing yet, throwing his first interception of the year, and completing "only" 56 percent of his passes for "only" 233 yards and 2 touchdowns.  But Indiana and coach Curt Cignetti got the job done, and now get a bye week before a road game at Oregon. 

11) LSU Tigers (4-1, 1-1, +237) - The team that I might have been the most wrong about this season - and I wasn't alone - was the LSU Tigers, who suffered their first loss of the season, 24-19 at Mississippi.  As I mentioned above, the Rebels were able to light up LSU's vaunted defense.  However, more concerning is LSU's seeming ineptitude on offense.  Against Mississippi, the Tigers rushed for 59 yards, and were 2 for 11 on their third down conversions.  Against Florida, LSU rushed for 96 yards, and against Clemson they rushed for 108 yards.  Things are not trending in the right direction.  However, for the time being, LSU still benefits from being a one-loss team in the SEC.  They get a bye week next week to try to get things right before they host a similarly one dimensional South Carolina Gamecocks.

12) Oregon Ducks (5-0, 2-0, +227) - I went to Oregon this weekend for my mother's 71st birthday, and so was, ironically, not able to watch most of the Oregon-Penn State game.  I watched most of the first half with my family before we went out for dinner, and then we returned with about two minutes left in regulation.  And when Penn State scored a touchdown to tie the game with 30 seconds left, I was certain that we had gotten back just in time to watch Oregon choke the game away.  However, the Ducks rallied, with quarterback Dante "The Inferno" Moore running 3 yards to convert on 4th and 1, and throwing to Gary Bryant Jr. for a 25-yard touchdown to put Oregon up 30-24 in the second overtime.  And on the next play from scrimmage, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar threw an interception into the leaping arms of Dillon Thieneman to seal the victory, and my whole family went berserk in our living room.

This was one of the few games that I picked correctly, because I'm an Oregon fan.  And even though the final score reflects what most people thought - that the game was a toss-up, or a slight edge to Penn State - the box score shows that Oregon was considerably better, outgaining the Nittany Lions 424 to 276, and winning the time of possession 33:52 to 26:08.  Oregon now gets a bye week before they host another top 10 team in Indiana. 

13) Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1, 1-0, +226) 

14) Missouri (5-0, 1-0, +224)

15) Houston (4-0, 1-0, +216) 

16) Tulane (4-1, 1-0, +201)

17) Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0, +197)

18) Tennessee (4-1, 1-1, +191)

19) Memphis (5-0, 1-0, +188)

20) Duke (3-2, 2-0, +188)

21) South Florida (3-1, 0-0, +183)

22) Utah (4-1, 1-1, +180)

23) Louisville (4-0, 1-0, +175)

24) Louisiana Tech (4-1, 3-0, +174)

25) North Texas (5-0, 1-0, +172)

Week 4 Power Rankings: Get Indiana'd

 1) Mississippi Rebels (4-0, 2-0, +373) - The Mississippi Rebels finally made a monkey out of me on Saturday when they defeated the Tulane Green Wave 45-10 after I had picked them to be upset.  Lane Kiffin must read this blog.  Also, my lonely "Jake Retzlaff for Heisman" crusade took a big hit after the Tulane quarterback went 5/17 for 56 yards and 0 touchdowns and ended up getting benched in the fourth quarter.  Mississippi has now scored 40 or more points in three of their four games this season, and the Rebels have also now won 20 consecutive non-conference regular season games.  Their last loss? August 31st, 2019 at Memphis. 

2) Miami Hurricanes (4-0, 0-0, +330) - Miami took care of business, smothering the Florida Gators en route to a convincing 26-7 win.  Miami held Florida to 141 total yards for the game.  The Hurricanes get next week off before they travel to Tallahassee to take on the Florida State Seminoles, with the winner of that game taking the inside track to the ACC Championship. Meanwhile, Florida's season from hell continues.  They have now lost three straight, and they host AP No. 8 Texas next week.  I expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder in that game. 

3) Oklahoma Sooners (4-0, 1-0, +292) - One of the (many) drawbacks to the new Super Conferences in college football are the unbalanced schedules.  This year, this particularly hurts the Oklahoma Sooners, who - even though they are easily one of the ten or twelve best teams in the country - will be hard pressed to reach ten or even nine wins, because they have to play Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, and LSU.  Oklahoma was able to beat a good Auburn team at home, 24-17, and they host Kent State next week before the Red River Rivalry.  I honestly believe that the Sooners defense might unalive Texas quarterback Arch Manning in that game, as the kids say these days. 

4) Georgia Tech (4-0, 1-0, +246)

5) Iowa State (4-0, 1-0, +241)

6) LSU Tigers (4-0, 1-0, +238) - LSU won their bye week against Southeastern Louisiana, 56-10.  This sets up one of many big games in the SEC next week, when the Tigers play at Mississippi on ABC at the 2:30 slot.  This should be a fun game of contrasting styles of play, with Mississippi averaging 47 points and 543 yards per game, and LSU giving up 9 points and 225 yards per game.  The big question will be: Can LSU's offense - which looked anemic at times against Clemson and Florida - be productive against Ole Miss? 

7) Texas A&M (3-0, 0-0, +225)

8) Missouri (4-0, 1-0, +222)

9) Ohio State (3-0, 0-0, +215)

10) USC Trojans (4-0, 2-0, +202) - One of the biggest beneficiaries of uneven scheduling this year has got to be the USC Trojans, who defeated the Michigan State Spartans 45-31 on Saturday night in a classic re-creation of The Iliad.  And even though USC now has to play three consecutive games against three (previously) ranked AP teams in Illinois, Michigan, and Notre Dame, they also get to avoid playing Indiana, Ohio State, or Penn State, and they get both Northwestern (No. 93 in my rankings) and UCLA (No. 112).  The Playoff Committee could be in a pickle if USC finishes, like, 10-2. 

11) Vanderbilt (4-0, 1-0, +201)

12) Houston (3-0, 1-0, +198)

13) Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0, 1-0, +197) - The Texas Tech Red Raiders made perhaps the second biggest impression of the weekend with an emphatic 34-10 win at Utah, after Indiana.  The final score is slightly misleading, as the Utes defense kept it close until the fourth quarter, when you could tell they just ran out of gas, and the Texas Tech offense scored 21 points in the final 8:29 of the game.  The Red Raiders now emerge as the temporary favorites in the Big 12, but they still have a lot of work ahead of them, starting with a trip to undefeated Houston in two weeks.  A special shoutout should be given to the Texas Tech defense, which held Utah to 3.8 yards per play, and caused 4 turnovers. Don't be surprised if you see these two team play each other again in the Big 12 Championship. 

14) South Florida (3-1, 0-0, +183)

15) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-1, 2-0, +170) - Look, the G5 representative to the College Football Playoff this year will almost certainly come from the American Conference.  However, should the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs run the table, and finish as C-USA champions at 12-1, with their only loss being to LSU, they might have a compelling case to make to the committee.  They defeated the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles on Saturday 30-20, despite giving up 514 total yards of offense, and gaining only 58 yards themselves and scoring 0 points in the second half.  Louisiana Tech should be favored in all of their remaining games, with a tricky trip at the Delaware Blue Hens on November 8th, followed by a game at Washington State the next week, for whatever that will be worth.  For the record, that means that the Bulldogs will have to travel 1,293 miles from Ruston, LA to Newark, DE one week, and then 2,076 miles in the opposite direction to Pullman, WA the next week. 

16) Memphis Tigers (4-0, 0-0, +165) - Like I said, the AAC Champ should become the next G5 representative to the Playoff this year, whether that is Memphis or South Florida or Navy or North Texas or Tulane.  Memphis made their case this weekend, with a 32-31 win at home against the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Tigers rallied from a 28-10 first half deficit, and took the lead on a 64-yard touchdown run by running back Sutton Smith.  Arkansas was then driving, and looked poised to hit the game winning field goal, before they fumbled it and Memphis recovered on their own 9-yard line to seal the game. 

17) Arizona State (3-1, 1-0, +164)

18) Indiana Hoosiers (4-0, 1-0, +160) - Hoo boy, I did not see that coming.  Even though I picked Indiana to beat my hometown Illinois Illini, I did not expect them to do so by 50 and, to be fair, I don't think anyone outside of Bloomington did.  The Hoosiers completely dominated this game, controlling the ball for 39:42 of game time, holding Illinois to 1/10 on third down conversions, and allowing only 161 total yards of offense, 159 of them through the air. (You do the math.) After the game, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti referred to Illinois' offensive struggles by saying "Put the Duke game on. The difference in that game was that Duke turned it over." And, I guess it goes without saying that, in the 126 years of this rivalry, this is the worst loss that Illinois has ever suffered, topping a 45-14 Indiana win in Champaign in 1979.  That Indiana team was coached by Lee Corso. 

19) Tulane (3-1, 0-0, +156) 

20) Auburn (3-1, 0-1, +155) 

21) Florida State (3-0, 0-0, +154)

22) Georgia (3-0, 1-0, +152)

23) North Texas (4-0, 1-0, +150)

24) Syracuse (3-1, 1-0, +149)

25) Maryland (4-0, 1-0, +147)

Smooth Jimmy's Locks of the Week: Week 4

1) (34) Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0, +73) at (13) Utah (3-0, 0-0, +162) - This is a big one.  With early Big 12 favorites like Baylor and Arizona State stumbling, Texas Tech and Utah have emerged as potential front-runners in the conference race.  Utah quarterback Devon Dampier has looked great in early action against the likes of UCLA and Wyoming, and maybe he'll be able to get something cooking against a Tech defense that has given up 183 passing yards per game.  Also, Utah is at home in this game, so I think the (slight) edge goes to the Utes.  Utah 28, Texas Tech 20. 

2) (42) Arkansas (2-1, 0-1, +55) at (35) Memphis (3-0, 0-0, +70) - If the American Conference wants to make a big statement in front of a nationally televised audience, this weekend is their chance.  First up will be the Memphis Tigers hosting the Arkansas Razorbacks.  These two teams have played each other only five times in history, with the latest being way back in 1998, a 23-9 win for the Razorbacks.  I really, really want to pick Memphis here, but I just can't bring myself to do it, especially since I think that Arkansas will be able to score at will in this game. But take the over.  Arkansas 49, Memphis 31. 

3) (121) Oregon State (0-3, 0-0, -145) at (21) Oregon (3-0, 1-0, +119) - The largest margin of victory in this 131-year long rivalry was in 2017, a 69-10 Ducks victory.  I don't think this one will top it, but it might.  Of course, you never know with it being a rivalry game, with Oregon looking ahead to Penn State next week, blah blah blah.  Expect a blow out.  Oregon 52, Oregon State 13. 

4) (11) Auburn (3-0, 0-0, +167) at (12) Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0, +166) - These are two teams who I did not expect to be contenders in the stacked SEC at the beginning of the season, but who both sure look like it now. I am still not sold on Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, who is right now 71/105 on the season, and has thrown for 944 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.  But I am sold on the Oklahoma defense, who is 4th in the nation in points allowed (6.3), 4th in total yards allowed (181), and 2nd in passing yards allowed (84.7). Oklahoma 23, Auburn 13.

5) (15) Tulane (3-0, 0-0, +158) at (2) Mississippi (3-0, 2-0, +251) - This is my upset special of the week.  The Mississippi Rebels have been living dangerously recently, beating Kentucky 30-23 and Arkansas 41-35.  They held lowly Georgia State to only 7 points, but also allowed 191 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry.  And Tulane has problematic quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who has rushed for 288 yards and 6 touchdowns on 7.2 yards per carry.  I anticipate turnovers to be a major factor in this game. Tulane 31, Mississippi 28. 

6) (75) Florida (1-2, 0-1, -8) at (1) Miami (FL) (3-0, 0-0, +268) - The terrible gauntlet for the Florida Gators continues.  And after dismantling South Florida last week, I do not expect Miami to let up this week.  Miami 38, Florida 14. 

7) (28) Illinois (3-0, 0-0, +87) at (44) Indiana (3-0, 0-0, +51) - The game of the week might be being played this week in Bloomington, Indiana.  Both the Illini and the Hoosiers are ranked in the AP Top 20, and are playing each other as ranked teams for the first time since 1950, when No. 12 Illinois shut out No. 19 Indiana 20-0 in Champaign.  And, even though Illinois is once again the higher ranked team, I have to hold my nose and pick against my hometown team.  Indiana 28, Illinois 17. 

8) (26) Michigan State (3-0, 0-0, +90) at (25) USC (3-0, 1-0, +91) - People are just starting to figure this out, but USC might be a problem.  Granted, the Trojans have been putting up video game-like stats against some of the worst teams in college football, but they are averaging 55 points per game versus 17 for their opponents.  They are averaging 9.6 yards per play from scrimmage over the course of three games. Sure, it's neat that this game is being played at ten o'clock at night, and is the Spartans versus the Trojans, but, uh, Odysseus might need more than ten years to get back to East Lansing, if you know what I'm saying. USC 41, Michigan State 21.