Week 5 Power Rankings: Don't Bet On Sports

 

1) Mississippi Rebels (5-0, 3-0, +504) - One of the persistent things of this week's power rankings is going to be that I am glad that I don't bet money on college football games.  Two weeks after going 8 for 9 in my picks, I probably went 1 for 9 this week.  Mississippi, in particular, has been a bad pattern for me, as I picked against them against Tulane, and then again against LSU.  Instead, the Rebels and their quarterback Trinidad Chambliss lit up what I thought was a pretty good Tiger defense for 314 passing yards and 484 total yards in a 24-19 victory. 

One of the disadvantages of my ranking system is that it has a tendency to over-weigh early season wins.  Mississippi is the benefactor of this system this season, as their wins against Arkansas, Tulane, and LSU have given them approximately a game and a half lead over the next group of teams (i.e., Texas A&M, Miami, Ohio State).  This means that the Rebels will probably have to lose not once but twice before they significantly drop in these rankings.  And maybe that will happen, but not for a while.  They do have back-to-back road games against Georgia and Oklahoma in October.  But do I dare pick against them in those games?  I'm not so sure anymore. 

2) Texas A&M Aggies (4-0, 1-0, +342) - Do I believe that Texas A&M is actually the second best team in the country?  No, not really.  But these rankings shouldn't be about what I believe, they should be about what I know, and I know that the Aggies are 4-0 with an SEC win, a win over a Power 5 team in Notre Dame, and 0 wins against FCS teams, and for now that's good enough to be my No. 2 team.  Their four wins are against No. 31 Auburn (+148), No. 40 Notre Dame (+106), No. 51 Utah State (+58), and No. 64 UTSA (+4).  Now, maybe they haven't looked particularly good at times against all (or any) of these opponents.  But beauty is in the eye of the beholder, is it not?

3) Miami Hurricanes (4-0, 0-0, +330) - The Hurricanes were on a bye this week.  Unfortunately for them, their opponents next weekend, Florida State, lost 46-38 in overtime to the Virginia Cavaliers, thus taking a little bit of a shine off of their showdown.  On the other hand, FSU's loss should make Miami's path to the ACC Championship a little easier.  If the Hurricanes can win next week in Tallahassee, then they will have the tie-breaker over Florida State in the conference standings, and should be the presumed favorite to at least play in the conference championship game in Charlotte. 

4) Iowa State (5-0, 2-0, +326)

5) Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0, +320) - So I'm not going to say that I went so far as to pick the Washington Huskies to upset Ohio State in Seattle on Saturday, but I definitely thought it would be closer than 24-6.  Washington was one of my sleeper picks to contend in the Big Ten, but they Dawgs shat the bed against the Buckeyes.  I knew Washington was in trouble even when they were up 3-0 in the first half, because they had had a 1st and Goal at the Ohio State 2-yard line, and then went:

    -1-yard run

    False Start

    -2-yard run

    0-yard run

    Field goal

That is how you lose a football game, especially as an underdog. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State's run defense is elite.  Washington only gained 61 yards on 30 rushing attempts, for 2 yards per carry.  This is a week after the Ohio Bobcats gained 68 yards rushing against the Buckeyes on 34 carries for ... 2 yards per carry.  Next week they host the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who beat Rutgers 31-28 in a game in which they rushed 17 times for 38 yards, for 2.2 yards per carry.  This will be ugly. 

6) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0, 2-0, +315) - Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good, and it seems like the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are out to prove that every week.  They rallied from down 20-3 against Wake Forest, and needed a failed 2-point conversion to win 30-29 in overtime, one of a record six different overtime games over the weekend.  Georgia Tech now has 3 wins by one score or less, and all three of those wins have come down to the last minute.  But let me tell you this right now: Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate is going to have playoff implications this year, and it just might be for the team you least suspect. 

7) Vanderbilt Commodores (5-0, 2-0, +295) - Nerd Alert! Nerd Alert! The Vanderbilt Commodores have improved to 5-0 for the first time since 2008 behind the stellar play of quarterback Diego Pavia, who has completed 76.4% percent of his passes and thrown for 13 touchdowns and rushed for 2 more so far this season.  Vanderbilt defeated Utah State 55-35, and have scored 245 total points through their first five games, the most by any SEC team since 1933. 

Trap game next week for the Commodores at Alabama. 

And, for what it's worth, here is Utah State's schedule so far this year:

W vs (133) UTEP 28-16

L @ (2) Texas A&M 22-44

W vs (128) Air Force 49-30

W vs FCS McNeese 48-7

L @ (7) Vanderbilt 35-55

8) Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0, +292)

9) Arizona State (4-1, 2-0, +274)

10) Indiana Hoosiers (5-0, 2-0, +261) - I don't know what to make of the Indiana Hoosiers.  They're a mystery.  One week, they look like the best team in the country as they dismantle a top-10 opponent at home.  The next, they struggle on the road, and escape with a 20-15 win against the Iowa Hawkeyes, who are once again the most Iowa-y of all football teams.  Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been having a great season, but had his toughest outing yet, throwing his first interception of the year, and completing "only" 56 percent of his passes for "only" 233 yards and 2 touchdowns.  But Indiana and coach Curt Cignetti got the job done, and now get a bye week before a road game at Oregon. 

11) LSU Tigers (4-1, 1-1, +237) - The team that I might have been the most wrong about this season - and I wasn't alone - was the LSU Tigers, who suffered their first loss of the season, 24-19 at Mississippi.  As I mentioned above, the Rebels were able to light up LSU's vaunted defense.  However, more concerning is LSU's seeming ineptitude on offense.  Against Mississippi, the Tigers rushed for 59 yards, and were 2 for 11 on their third down conversions.  Against Florida, LSU rushed for 96 yards, and against Clemson they rushed for 108 yards.  Things are not trending in the right direction.  However, for the time being, LSU still benefits from being a one-loss team in the SEC.  They get a bye week next week to try to get things right before they host a similarly one dimensional South Carolina Gamecocks.

12) Oregon Ducks (5-0, 2-0, +227) - I went to Oregon this weekend for my mother's 71st birthday, and so was, ironically, not able to watch most of the Oregon-Penn State game.  I watched most of the first half with my family before we went out for dinner, and then we returned with about two minutes left in regulation.  And when Penn State scored a touchdown to tie the game with 30 seconds left, I was certain that we had gotten back just in time to watch Oregon choke the game away.  However, the Ducks rallied, with quarterback Dante "The Inferno" Moore running 3 yards to convert on 4th and 1, and throwing to Gary Bryant Jr. for a 25-yard touchdown to put Oregon up 30-24 in the second overtime.  And on the next play from scrimmage, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar threw an interception into the leaping arms of Dillon Thieneman to seal the victory, and my whole family went berserk in our living room.

This was one of the few games that I picked correctly, because I'm an Oregon fan.  And even though the final score reflects what most people thought - that the game was a toss-up, or a slight edge to Penn State - the box score shows that Oregon was considerably better, outgaining the Nittany Lions 424 to 276, and winning the time of possession 33:52 to 26:08.  Oregon now gets a bye week before they host another top 10 team in Indiana. 

13) Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1, 1-0, +226) 

14) Missouri (5-0, 1-0, +224)

15) Houston (4-0, 1-0, +216) 

16) Tulane (4-1, 1-0, +201)

17) Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0, +197)

18) Tennessee (4-1, 1-1, +191)

19) Memphis (5-0, 1-0, +188)

20) Duke (3-2, 2-0, +188)

21) South Florida (3-1, 0-0, +183)

22) Utah (4-1, 1-1, +180)

23) Louisville (4-0, 1-0, +175)

24) Louisiana Tech (4-1, 3-0, +174)

25) North Texas (5-0, 1-0, +172)

Week 4 Power Rankings: Get Indiana'd

 1) Mississippi Rebels (4-0, 2-0, +373) - The Mississippi Rebels finally made a monkey out of me on Saturday when they defeated the Tulane Green Wave 45-10 after I had picked them to be upset.  Lane Kiffin must read this blog.  Also, my lonely "Jake Retzlaff for Heisman" crusade took a big hit after the Tulane quarterback went 5/17 for 56 yards and 0 touchdowns and ended up getting benched in the fourth quarter.  Mississippi has now scored 40 or more points in three of their four games this season, and the Rebels have also now won 20 consecutive non-conference regular season games.  Their last loss? August 31st, 2019 at Memphis. 

2) Miami Hurricanes (4-0, 0-0, +330) - Miami took care of business, smothering the Florida Gators en route to a convincing 26-7 win.  Miami held Florida to 141 total yards for the game.  The Hurricanes get next week off before they travel to Tallahassee to take on the Florida State Seminoles, with the winner of that game taking the inside track to the ACC Championship. Meanwhile, Florida's season from hell continues.  They have now lost three straight, and they host AP No. 8 Texas next week.  I expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder in that game. 

3) Oklahoma Sooners (4-0, 1-0, +292) - One of the (many) drawbacks to the new Super Conferences in college football are the unbalanced schedules.  This year, this particularly hurts the Oklahoma Sooners, who - even though they are easily one of the ten or twelve best teams in the country - will be hard pressed to reach ten or even nine wins, because they have to play Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, and LSU.  Oklahoma was able to beat a good Auburn team at home, 24-17, and they host Kent State next week before the Red River Rivalry.  I honestly believe that the Sooners defense might unalive Texas quarterback Arch Manning in that game, as the kids say these days. 

4) Georgia Tech (4-0, 1-0, +246)

5) Iowa State (4-0, 1-0, +241)

6) LSU Tigers (4-0, 1-0, +238) - LSU won their bye week against Southeastern Louisiana, 56-10.  This sets up one of many big games in the SEC next week, when the Tigers play at Mississippi on ABC at the 2:30 slot.  This should be a fun game of contrasting styles of play, with Mississippi averaging 47 points and 543 yards per game, and LSU giving up 9 points and 225 yards per game.  The big question will be: Can LSU's offense - which looked anemic at times against Clemson and Florida - be productive against Ole Miss? 

7) Texas A&M (3-0, 0-0, +225)

8) Missouri (4-0, 1-0, +222)

9) Ohio State (3-0, 0-0, +215)

10) USC Trojans (4-0, 2-0, +202) - One of the biggest beneficiaries of uneven scheduling this year has got to be the USC Trojans, who defeated the Michigan State Spartans 45-31 on Saturday night in a classic re-creation of The Iliad.  And even though USC now has to play three consecutive games against three (previously) ranked AP teams in Illinois, Michigan, and Notre Dame, they also get to avoid playing Indiana, Ohio State, or Penn State, and they get both Northwestern (No. 93 in my rankings) and UCLA (No. 112).  The Playoff Committee could be in a pickle if USC finishes, like, 10-2. 

11) Vanderbilt (4-0, 1-0, +201)

12) Houston (3-0, 1-0, +198)

13) Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0, 1-0, +197) - The Texas Tech Red Raiders made perhaps the second biggest impression of the weekend with an emphatic 34-10 win at Utah, after Indiana.  The final score is slightly misleading, as the Utes defense kept it close until the fourth quarter, when you could tell they just ran out of gas, and the Texas Tech offense scored 21 points in the final 8:29 of the game.  The Red Raiders now emerge as the temporary favorites in the Big 12, but they still have a lot of work ahead of them, starting with a trip to undefeated Houston in two weeks.  A special shoutout should be given to the Texas Tech defense, which held Utah to 3.8 yards per play, and caused 4 turnovers. Don't be surprised if you see these two team play each other again in the Big 12 Championship. 

14) South Florida (3-1, 0-0, +183)

15) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-1, 2-0, +170) - Look, the G5 representative to the College Football Playoff this year will almost certainly come from the American Conference.  However, should the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs run the table, and finish as C-USA champions at 12-1, with their only loss being to LSU, they might have a compelling case to make to the committee.  They defeated the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles on Saturday 30-20, despite giving up 514 total yards of offense, and gaining only 58 yards themselves and scoring 0 points in the second half.  Louisiana Tech should be favored in all of their remaining games, with a tricky trip at the Delaware Blue Hens on November 8th, followed by a game at Washington State the next week, for whatever that will be worth.  For the record, that means that the Bulldogs will have to travel 1,293 miles from Ruston, LA to Newark, DE one week, and then 2,076 miles in the opposite direction to Pullman, WA the next week. 

16) Memphis Tigers (4-0, 0-0, +165) - Like I said, the AAC Champ should become the next G5 representative to the Playoff this year, whether that is Memphis or South Florida or Navy or North Texas or Tulane.  Memphis made their case this weekend, with a 32-31 win at home against the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Tigers rallied from a 28-10 first half deficit, and took the lead on a 64-yard touchdown run by running back Sutton Smith.  Arkansas was then driving, and looked poised to hit the game winning field goal, before they fumbled it and Memphis recovered on their own 9-yard line to seal the game. 

17) Arizona State (3-1, 1-0, +164)

18) Indiana Hoosiers (4-0, 1-0, +160) - Hoo boy, I did not see that coming.  Even though I picked Indiana to beat my hometown Illinois Illini, I did not expect them to do so by 50 and, to be fair, I don't think anyone outside of Bloomington did.  The Hoosiers completely dominated this game, controlling the ball for 39:42 of game time, holding Illinois to 1/10 on third down conversions, and allowing only 161 total yards of offense, 159 of them through the air. (You do the math.) After the game, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti referred to Illinois' offensive struggles by saying "Put the Duke game on. The difference in that game was that Duke turned it over." And, I guess it goes without saying that, in the 126 years of this rivalry, this is the worst loss that Illinois has ever suffered, topping a 45-14 Indiana win in Champaign in 1979.  That Indiana team was coached by Lee Corso. 

19) Tulane (3-1, 0-0, +156) 

20) Auburn (3-1, 0-1, +155) 

21) Florida State (3-0, 0-0, +154)

22) Georgia (3-0, 1-0, +152)

23) North Texas (4-0, 1-0, +150)

24) Syracuse (3-1, 1-0, +149)

25) Maryland (4-0, 1-0, +147)

My Top 25: She's Like A Rainbow

 Week 3 of the college football season is in the books!  For those of you keeping track at home, my Top 25 this week contains: 

• 10 teams from the SEC

• 3 from the Big Ten

• 5 from the ACC

• 3 from the Big 12

• 3 from the American

• 1 from C-USA???

• 3 Bulldogs

• 3 Tigers

• 1 Cougar

• 2 Officially sanctioned Native American tribes

• 0 Unofficial

• 5 Colors (Yellow, Golden, Crimson, Green X2)

• 4 weatherbased systems

1. Miami (FL) (3-0, 0-0, +268) - The Miami Hurricanes did not FAFO on Saturday, jumping right on their opponents, the Cinderella South Florida Bulls, and dominating them from beginning to end en route to a 49-12 win.  The most impressive stat of the night was Miami holding USF to only 40 total rushing yards for the game on 27 attempts for an average of 1.5 yards per rush.  The Hurricanes now have two impressive home wins, over Notre Dame (formerly coached by Lou Holtz) and South Florida (formerly coached by Lou’s son, Skip).  They’ll get a chance to add to their resumé in the coming weeks, with big games scheduled ahead versus Florida and at Florida State.  

2. Mississippi (3-0, 2-0, +251) - It’s best to think of this spot in the Power Rankings as reserved for the number one SEC team.  For now, that team is the Mississippi Rebels, who outlasted the Arkansas Razorbacks 41-35, and now have two SEC wins, both by one score.  Next week, the Rebels will be putting it all on the line against the Tulane Green Wave, in a game that has a lot more playoff implications now than I think anyone believed it would at the beginning of the season. 

3. Iowa State (4-0, 1-0, +241) - One of the themes of Week 3 was power teams fucking around and looking a little sus against supposedly inferior competition.  One of these culprits was the Iowa State Cyclones, who defeated the Arkansas State Red Wolves 24-16.  Iowa State needed all four quarters to put away Arkansas State, as they went into the 4th quarter only up 17-13.  Nevertheless, the Cyclones are off to their second consecutive 4-0 start to the season, which is something they have never done before in their 133 years of playing football. They also maintain (for now) the inside track to the Big 12 Championship, as they have a favorable conference schedule ahead. 

4. LSU (3-0, 1-0, +237) - Aside from maybe Miami, the LSU Tigers have been the most impressive team to me during the early stages of the season.  They outlasted the Florida Gators in Baton Rouge 20-10, notably causing Florida quarterback DJ Lagway to throw five interceptions, and now get a warm-up game against Southeastern Louisiana before they travel to play Ole Miss. 

And what about Florida?  I honestly almost feel bad for the Gators (almost! I do not like the Gators!) with the absolutely brutal schedule that they have to play this year (rankings are my own, but the official rankings will tell you a similar story): 

W vs FCS Long Island

L vs (10) South Florida

L at (4) LSU

At (1) Miami (FL)

Vs (57) Texas

At (6) Texas A&M

Vs (24) Mississippi St

Vs (17) Georgia

At (49) Kentucky

At (2) Mississippi 

Vs (48) Tennessee 

Vs (18) Florida St 

It’s not a good sign when the easiest team left on your schedule is Texas. 

5. North Carolina State (3-0, 1-0, +232) -

Follow me on Twitter @UmpDump2005 

6. Texas A&M (3-0, 0-0, +225) - Is Texas A&M the best college football team in the state of Texas?  The Aggies got their signature win on Saturday night, winning a 41-40 barnburner against Notre Dame in the Game of the Year of the Week (Part Deux).  I have tremendous respect for Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman, who had his team go for it on 4th and 1 from the Texas A&M 18-yard line to set up the go-ahead touchdown instead of settling for the field goal.  However, the Irish then had a bad snap/hold and missed their extra point kick, allowing the Aggies to drive 74 yards in 13 plays to score the winning touchdown AND extra point.

Notre Dame might now be the greatest 0-2 team in history.  They have lost by 3 points on the road to a Top-5 team, and by 1 point at home to at least a Top-10 team.  Their schedule gets significantly easier from here on out, but it may be too late for them in terms of the playoff race.

7. Ohio State (3-0, 0-0, +215) - Ohio State was another team that dicked around for a while on Saturday before finally putting away an inferior opponent.  They beat the Ohio Bobcats of the MAC 37-9, but led at one point in the Third Quarter by only 13-9, and didn’t really put the game away until the 4th.  Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin was decent, going 25 /32 for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns, but also threw 2 interceptions.  This might become an issue later on in the season.  Just sayin’. 

Ohio, meanwhile, have themselves in an interesting position.  They didn’t embarrass themselves against Ohio State, they beat West Virginia, and they only lost to Rutgers by 3 points.  I would expect Ohio to be contenders this year in the MAC, and keep your eye on them for some potentially hilarious late-season victory-by-transitive-property scenarios, since they’ve already beaten West Virginia, who just beat Pittsburgh.

8. Houston (3-0, 1-0, +198) - Is Houston the best college football team in the state of Texas?  Probably not, but they looked very good in their Big 12 opener, a 36-20 win over the Colorado Buffaloes.  Curiously, this is only the second ever meeting between Houston and Colorado, the other being a 29-17 Colorado victory in the Astro-Bluebonnet Bowl.  The Cougars turned what was a close game into a laugher in the second half, when they outscored the Buffaloes 20-6, and caused two interceptions and a turnover on downs.  Houston gets a bye next week before they travel to Corvallis to take on the sadsack Oregon State Beavers, followed by a key Texas showdown against rivals Tech!

9. Georgia Tech (3-0, 1-0, +186) - One of the great things about college football is definitely the “Any Given Sunday” factor; that even a week of games that might look a little boring on paper can turn out and give you a slate of great games.  This was true of the Georgia Tech-Clemson game, in which Tech managed to pull out a 24-21 win over the Tigers.  And in a season that has had us see more than our fair share of botched end-of-game clock management, a special shout-out ought to go out to Georgia Tech coach Brent Key.  After Clemson scored a touchdown to tie the game with 3:26 left, the Yellow Jackets executed a 10-play, 38-yard drive that ended with kicker Aidan Birr hitting a 55-yard field goal - the longest game winning field goal in Georgia Tech history.  Tech also ran an incredibly clean game, especially for their style of play, committing 0 turnovers and only 3 penalties for 26 yards. 

10. South Florida (2-1, 0-0, +182)

11. Auburn (3-0, 0-0, +167)

12. Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0, +166)

13. Utah (3-0, 0-0, +162) 

14. Vanderbilt (3-0, 1-0, +161)

15. Tulane (3-0, 0-0, +158) 

16. California (3-0, 0-0, +156) - Pac-12 After Dark is alive and well in Berkeley!  Yes, the California Golden Bears of the Atlantic Coast Conference defeated their hated tawny mammalian rivals, the Minnesota Golden Gophers, 27-14, in a game that kicked off at 7:30 local time, or 10:30 P.M. at the ACC headquarters in Charlotte.  Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele went 24/38 for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, and he could start getting a little Heisman buzz.  By me.  I hereby buzz. Call could also be a dark horse (a black bear?) in the ACC title race, as they do not have to play Clemson, Miami, or Florida St. this year.

Also of note in the ACC: Stanford got their first win of the season, 30-20, over Boston College which means, according to Google AI, that this was the first time that both Stanford and Cal won home football games on the same night since September 3, 2022, when Stanford beat Colgate and Cal beat UC Davis.  This also means that you had the Golden Bears, the Golden Gophers, and the Cardinal all playing football at the same time within 40 miles of each other.  And I was going to say the Golden Eagles, but I guess that BC is just the Eagles.  I fucking hate the Eagles, man.  

17. Georgia (3-0, 1-0, +152) - In the Game of the Year of the Week, the Georgia Bulldogs came back to defeat the Tennessee Volunteers 44-41 in overtime to secure their ninth consecutive win in that series.  Although there are still some questions about them, I do think that Georgia will become an elite team, and at this point I would pick them to eventually win the SEC.  Now, about that game … 

After squandering a 21-7 first half lead, Tennessee actually fought back to tie the game 41-41, and was driving with the ball and a chance to win the game in regulation.  After they got into field goal range, Tennessee coach Josh Heupel did something curious.  The Volunteers had just ran the ball 4 yards to set up a field goal attempt at the Georgia 20-yard line with seven seconds left.  But then Heupel sent the offense back out on the field to do - what, exactly?  The ball was already where they wanted it.  Did he feel like they needed another extra yard?  He didn’t have enough time to take a shot at the endzone.  What was he trying to do?  As it turned out, the offense got called for a false start, and ended up being pushed back 5 yards.  They then attempted the field goal, and Tennessee kicker Max Gilbert pushed it wide right.  Now, the kick had enough distance, so maybe the last second penalty didn’t matter.  But we’ll never know …

18. Florida State (2-0, 0-0, +137)

19. Missouri (3-0, 0-0, +130)

20. North Texas (3-0, 0-0, +122) - Is North Texas the best college football team in the state of Texas?  No, no they are not.  However, the Mean Green from Denton, Texas looked like it in 59-10 destruction of the Washington State Cougars, a game in which they caused five total turnovers and outgained Wazzu 410 yards to 275.  If nothing else, UNT should be able to throw their hats into the ring for the American Conference championship, and, therefore, for the Furious Five at-large bid for the playoff. 

21. Oregon (3-0, 1-0, +119) - Oregon looked less than overwhelming in their Big Ten opener against the Northwestern Wildcats.  In fact, they looked exceptionally whelming.  The Ducks “only” outgained Northwestern 373 yards to 313, and there were moments when it looked like the Wildcats offensive line was able to push the Oregon defenders off their marks.  However, Oregon was able to hold Northwestern scoreless until the 4th quarter, and Oregon quarterback Dante “The Inferno” Moore finished 16/20 for 178 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.

This game kicked off at 11:00 a.m. Central Time (9:00 a.m., PT) and was played in front of 12,023 fans at Northwestern’s Martin Stadium in Evanston, Illinois.  Martin Stadium is actually Northwestern’s field for their soccer and lacrosse teams, and is only temporarily hosting their football team while their football stadium is being renovated.  This means that Oregon got to be only one of 13 visiting teams that will ever play there. 

22. Alabama (2-1, 0-0, +111) - Alabama is going to be just fine.  Their defense was dominant against a Wisconsin team that I thought could have given them some troubles, allowing only 92 rushing yards on 34 attempts and causing 2 turnovers en route to a 38-14 win.  However, questions remain about the Crimson Tide’s offense, and they don’t have a lot of time to figure it out.  They get a bye next week before they have to play at Georgia on Sep. 27th. 

23. Louisiana Tech (2-1, 1-0, +96) - I don’t know what the fuck Louisiana Tech is doing here, either.  Congratulations on reading this far.  

24. Mississippi State (3-0, 0-0, +91) 

25. USC (3-0, 1-0, +91) 

Most Impactful Games of the Upcoming Weekend

 

1) (5) North Carolina State (2-0, 0-0, +159) at (64) Wake Forest (2-0, 0-0, +6) - Early season ACC match-up, and test to see if NC State belongs in the conversation for conference champs.  Wake Forest beat Kennesaw State 10-9 in Week One.  Current spread is NCSU (-6.5).  They'll win by more than that.

2) (28) Oregon (2-0, 0-0, +73) at (91) Northwestern (1-1, 0-0, -44) - Oregon is currently 27.5 point favorites at Northwestern.  So far, it seems like the Wildcats haven't done or said anything to piss off Dan Lanning.  I'd still bet on Oregon to cover the spread before they pull their starters.  Even with a win, though, they probably won't crack my Top 25.  (Because Northwestern is very bad.) 

3) (40) Clemson (1-1, 0-0, +52) at (18) Georgia Tech (2-0, 0-0, +89) - Clemson is 2.5 point favorites, so it's barely considered "upset watch".  Do you trust Dabo Swinney to fix what ails the Tigers?  My heart wants Georgia Tech, but my brain says Clemson.

4) (43) Wisconsin (2-0, 0-0, +48) at (59) Alabama (1-1, 0-0, +15) - Alabama three touchdown favorites at home?  Bet on Wisconsin to #CoverTheSpread .

5) (47) Georgia (2-0, 0-0, +39) at (24) Tennessee (2-0, 0-0, +83) - I have no idea what to expect.  Georgia is 3.5 point favorites on the road at Tennessee.  We really haven't seen anything from the Bulldogs yet this season, and Tennessee did beat Syracuse, but then Syracuse needed a miracle to beat UConn, so what does that mean? I don't know.  Flip a coin and go with Georgia.  But don't surprised if both of these teams are in the playoff picture near the end of the year.

6) (2) South Florida (2-0, 0-0, +191) at (9) Miami (FL) (2-0, 0-0, +132) - Game of the Century of the Week.  Probably the biggest game in the history of the USF Bulls.  Hard Rock Stadium will be rockin'. The winner of this game will probably be my No. 1 going into Week 4.  I like South Florida, but I also think that Miami is legit a title contender this year.  I predict something crazy happening (Gramatica missing game winning FG), and the Hurricanes escaping with a win, 32-30.

7) (76) Florida (1-1, 0-0, -5) at (3) LSU (2-0, 0-0, +176) - LSU is 7.5 point favorites at home against Florida. They will win by more than that.  By a lot more than that.

8) (4) Texas A&M (2-0, 0-0, +168) at (80) Notre Dame (0-1, 0-0, -14) - This is another game where I have no clue what will happen. Texas A&M has two decent wins (scores of 42-24 and 44-22) over two decent programs (Texas-San Antonio and Utah State).  Notre Dame has one tough loss on the road against a Top 5 Team, 24-27 at Miami.  The Aggies are 6.5 point underdogs on the road in South Bend, so let's pick them to win, just for fun.  Texas A&M 27, Notre Dame 21

9) (96) Duke (1-1, 0-0, -54) at (12) Tulane (2-0, 0-0, +117) - This was going to be my upset special, except I just found out that Tulane is 1.5 point favorites at home against Duke.  Pick the Green Wave to cover the spread.

Week 2 Power Rankings: Five Factors to Winning Football

 

Way back in 2014, the college football guru, Bill Connelly, wrote a little blogpost on the SBNation website Football Study Hall entitled, “The five factors: College football’s most important stats,” in which he laid out the keys to winning every college football game.  Think of this as the college football equivalent to the sabermetrics revolution in baseball.  Connelly later would turn this blogpost into an entire book, Study Hall: College Football, Its Stats, and Its Stories and a job at ESPN.  I highly recommend his writings. 

In short, the five factors are Explosiveness, Efficiency, Field Position, Finishing Drives, and Turnovers.  (Field Position is always the one that I can’t remember.) Some of these factors bleed into one another, obviously, and some of them can be divided up into further sub-categories.  However, they do provide a valuable lens through which we can analyze exactly why such-and-such of a college football game turned out the way that it did. 

1) Iowa State Cyclones (3-0, 1-0, +203) - Amidst the wreckage that is the Big 12 Conference right now, Iowa State stands atop, waving their flag of red and gold. The Cyclones won their third El Classico in the last four years against rivals Iowa, in a 16-13 game that only the mother of an Iowa son could love. For example, in the third quarter, Iowa ran a 16-play, 77-yard drive that took 9:28 of gametime, and ended in a field goal, their only points of the second half. 

Meanwhile, ISU’s win was one of the few bright spots for an otherwise disastrous weekend for the Big 12.  The other Big 12 team that I thought could compete for a playoff spot, Arizona State, lost at Mississippi State.  West Virginia lost to Ohio of the MAC.  Kansas State lost to Army, who had just lost to FCS Tarleton State.  Oklahoma State lost to Oregon sixty-nine to three.  (More on that later!)  The Cyclones are not a great team, but they seem to be the Best of the Rest, and their conference schedule seems manageable, despite some tricky late-season games at Colorado and TCU. 

Explosiveness: Explosiveness is defined as the number of big yardage plays that your offense runs during a game, usually defined as 10 or more yards for a rushing play and 20 or more yards for a passing play.  You’ll often hear commentators call these “chunk plays.”  Getting as many explosive plays as possible is key to winning, because they usually end in scores or easy scoring opportunities, they avoid third-and-long situations, and they minimize the risk of turnovers. 

Iowa-Iowa St was NOT an explosive game.  Iowa ran a total of 4 explosive plays and Iowa St had 3.  This is going to be a very, very big problem for both of these teams later in this season. 

2) South Florida Bulls (2-0, 0-0, +191) - I owe South Florida an apology.  I was not familiar with their game.  After the Bulls Week One win over Boise State, I dismissed them, thinking that the win had more to do with Boise having a hard time replacing one of the greatest college running backs of all time than with anything that USF did.  Their latest win - 18-16 over the Florida Gators - has changed my opinion. The Bulls now seem like the creme de la creme of the G5, and I would be willing to bet your mortgage (not mine) on the G5 playoff representative coming from the American Conference.  

Meanwhile, I just do not understand how Florida head coach Billy Napier still has a job.  The Gators took the lead 16-15 with a touchdown with 12 minutes left in the game. USF kicker Nico Gramatica (yes, of those Gramaticas) missed a 58-yard field goal, giving Florida the ball and a 1-point lead with only 2:56 left in the game. Florida should have been able to sit on the ball, grind out a few first downs, and ice the game.  Instead, they call a timeout, throw an incomplete pass, rush for 2 yards, THROW A SECOND INCOMPLETE PASS, and then punt the ball - with 2:39 left in the game.  18 seconds off the clock.  USF then marches down the field, aided by a 13-yard pass interference penalty and a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty when a Florida player spat on a dude, and sets up Gramatica to hit a game-winning 19-yard field goal as time expires.  Seriously. Fire Billy Napier.

Finishing Drives: There were a lot of reasons why Florida lost this game, but one that they should particularly rue was their inability to finish drives.  In the first half they twice had a 1st and 10 inside USF’s 20-yard line, and once they had a 1st and 10 inside the 30, and all three times Florida ended up settling for a field goal. The hallmark of a winning college football team is that, when they have the opportunity, they go for the jugular. Ironically, the Gators did not. As a direct result, Florida led this game at halftime 9-6 instead of 21-6, and ended up losing. 

Seriously. Fire Billy Napier. 

3) LSU Tigers (2-0, 0-0, +176) - I mentioned this on the podcast last week with Sam, but for some reason there has become this sort of media narrative that the SEC is struggling this season, with key non-conferences losses by Texas, Alabama, and Florida.

But that’s it.  That’s the list.  Outside of those three games, the SEC is 26-0 in non-conference games so far this year.  

LSU beat Louisiana Tech 23-7.  Good for them.  Next week, they open SEC play at home against Florida in the ABC Primetime game of the week.  I expect LSU to be pretty big favorites (I see the Tigers as 6.5 point favorites right now, which strikes me as favorable to Florida), but I look forward to the opportunities for some late-game time management shenanigans between Billy Napier and LSU coach Brian Kelly, who also sucks.  

4) Texas A&M Aggies (2-0, 0-0, +168)

5) North Carolina State Wolfpack (2-0, 0-0, +159) - NC State beat the Virginia Cavaliers 35-31 in a game between two ACC teams that, strangely enough, does not count as an ACC game in the standings. The Wolfpack are part of a big ACC middle class that includes Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, and Pittsburgh, all of whom could realistically make a run for the conference championship just as easily as they could miss out on a bowl game entirely.

Turnovers: One of those ACC teams are the Duke Blue Devils, who are coming off of a 9-win season last year and a Gator Bowl loss to Mississippi.  Duke has high hopes for this year, but lost on Saturday to Illinois 45-19.  Now, that looks like a butt whooping, but the game should have been much closer.  Duke outgained Illinois 438 yards to 419, averaged 6.9 yards per play to Illinois’ 5.7, and was more efficient on their third down conversions.  The difference in the game? Duke turned the ball over 5 times, and Illinois had 0.  

6) Mississippi Rebels (2-0, 1-0, +148) 

7) Florida State Seminoles (2-0, 0-0, +137) 

8) Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0, 0-0, +133) - Ohio State beat FCS Grambling State 70-0.  Good for them.  Now I want to talk about Oregon. 

The Oregon Ducks beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys 69-3 on Saturday in Eugene.  The Ducks are stuck at No. 28 in my rankings, because their two wins are against FCS Montana State and a bad Oklahoma State team. Oregon had 2 touchdowns in their first 3 plays from scrimmage.  They led at halftime 41-3.  They scored Pick Sixes on back-to-back plays in the second half.  They did not score in the 4th Quarter. At one point, Fox Sports put one of the most hilarious stats on the screen that I have ever seen: “Yards per play: Oklahoma State: 1.8, Oregon: 43.3”. This was the second worst loss in Oklahoma State history, the other being a 67-0 loss to Oklahoma on November 9, 1907, which was exactly one week before Oklahoma became a state. 

Having said that - and remember, I am an Oregon Ducks fan - we need to pump the brakes on all this Oregon to the National Championship talk that I’m hearing on Twitter.  Oklahoma State is bad, and they might be really bad.  I have them as the 8th worst Power 4 team in the country, right between Northwestern and UCLA.  Bill Connelly had them at 50th coming into this game, roughly equivalent to Houston, Maryland, or Boston College.  So we knew that this game was going to be one-sided.  Just not this one-sided.  

Oh, and remember what I said about “explosiveness”? In this game, Oregon had 16 explosive plays, 15 in the first three quarters, before they pulled their starters. 

9) Miami Hurricanes (2-0, 0-0, +132) 

10) Houston Cougars (2-0, 0-0, +121)

11) Pittsburgh Panthers (2-0, 0-0, +119) - Pittsburgh took care of business on Saturday, beating Central Michigan 45-17.  Unfortunately for them, their opponents next week, West Virginia, lost to their MAC opponents, the Ohio Bobcats, 17-10.  Therefore, ESPN has pulled GameDay out of Morgantown for next week, and is relocating to Knoxville for the Georgia-Tennessee game. That sucks for Pittsburgh. 

Efficiency: Efficiency can be measured as “yards per play,” but it also means more than that.  Efficiency means a team’s offense is able to gain yards in a constant and consistent manner; if you remember your middle school math, think not just “mean”, but also “median” and “mode”.  During a broadcast, you’ll often hear the announcers talk about a team being “behind the sticks” or “behind schedule”.  That means that they’re playing inefficiently, probably because they just took a sack or ran for a loss (which is bad!). 

Ultimately, efficiency means avoiding third-and-longs, which are the ultimate drive killers.  In their game against Ohio, the Mountaineers were not efficient.  They had 13 first downs compared to 24 for Ohio, and went 2 for 13 on third down conversions.  8 of those 13 attempts were on “3rd and long” defined as 3rd and 7 or longer, but, to be fair, West Virginia went 0 for 3 on 3rd and 2, too. 

12) Tulane Green Wave (2-0, 0-0, +117) 

13) Missouri Tigers (2-0, 0-0, +117)

14) Auburn Tigers (2-0, 0-0, +112)

15) South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0, 0-0, +96)

16) Oklahoma Sooners (2-0, 0-0, +96)  - Oklahoma beat the Michigan Wolverines 24-13 in the ABC Primetime game in a match-up that, to me, was one of two good defenses playing against two not-very-good offenses. Michigan’s much-hyped quarterback, Bryce Underwood, was held to 142 yards passing on 9/24 and 0 touchdowns, and the team ran for 146 yards on 32 carries.  75 of those yards came from 1 run by Justin Haynes, which also accounted for Michigan’s only touchdown of the game.  Without that play, the Wolverines got 67 yards rushing on 31 carries, or 2.1 yards per play.  Explosiveness matters!

17) Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0, 0-0, +89) - In what was probably the most exciting game during the late night slab, Mississippi State outlasted the Arizona State Sun Devils 24-20. ASU had fought back all the way from being down 17-0 to take the lead in the Fourth Quarter, and then Mississippi State quarterback connected with receiver Brenen Thompson for a 58-yard touchdown with thirty seconds left in the game. 

Field Position: Field Position means exactly what it says: The position on the field where your offense starts its drives.  Field Position is mostly a result of special teams play, which people tend to forget is an entire third of the game.

In the first half of the MSU-ASU game, Mississippi State dominated the field position game. All of Arizona State’s drives started deep in their half of the field, with their best starting field position being their own 38.  The Bulldogs, meanwhile, were able to start in ASU’s territory twice, and had two more drives begin outside of their own 40-yard line.  That good field position led directly to 10 points, and turned out to be the difference in the ballgame. 

And I don’t know if this means anything, but we just finished Week Two of the college football season, and 6 of last year’s 12 playoff teams have already lost a game. 

18) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-0, 0-0, +89)

19) Michigan State Spartans (2-0, 0-0, +89)

20) Utah Utes (2-0, 0-0, +88)

21) Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0, 0-0, +86)

22) Maryland Terrapins (2-0, 0-0, +85)

23) TCU Horned Frogs (1-0, 0-0, +84)

24) Tennessee Volunteers (2-0, 0-0, +83)

25) Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-0, 0-0, +83)