Week 6 Power Rankings: Mostly SEC

 1) Mississippi Rebels (5-0, 3-0, +504) - Last year, the SEC got 3 teams into the 12-team playoff (Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee).  That is probably the bare minimum that the conference will get this year, and it could be as many as 6.  But who will it be?  Any team that finishes 10-2 or better will probably be considered as a de facto auto bid, but is it possible that one or more 9-3 teams could make the field?  There are ten teams with 1 or 0 conference losses at the moment, with Mississippi leading as the only 3-0 team.  They still have upcoming trips to Georgia and to Oklahoma, but it’s possible that the Rebels could drop BOTH of those games and still make the playoffs. 

Mississippi had a bye week this week.  Next week they host Washington State.  It would be funny if they lost that. 

2) Texas A&M Aggies (5-0, 2-0, +437) - The Texas A&M Aggies had been living dangerously, with a 1-point win over Notre Dame and a 6-point win over Auburn.  They righted their ship in a 31-9 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs, running away in a game that was close at only 7-3 at halftime.  Texas A&M is now co-leaders, along with Mississippi, atop the SEC, but, to be honest, I don’t trust either one of them.  Maybe I’m reading too much into the brand names, the names on the front of the jerseys.  The Aggies have six more SEC opponents, and none of them are Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, or Oklahoma. 

3) Miami (FL) Hurricanes (5-0, 1-0, +426) - Miami rushed out to a 28-3 lead against the Florida State Seminoles on Friday before they took their foot off the gas, letting FSU get back into the game, before finally holding on for the 28-22 win.  The Hurricanes were once again led by their elite defense.  Florida State was eventually able to total 404 yards of total offense, but more than half of that came in the fourth quarter, when they were trying to stage a massive quarterback.  Despite some serious game management concerns, Miami should be considered the ACC favorites for now, and they don’t play another AP ranked team for the rest of the season. 

4) Ohio State (5-0, 2-0, +408)

5) Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1, 2-0, +356) - Reports of Alabama’s demise have definitely been pre, once again.  The Crimson Tide outlasted the Vanderbilt Commodores 30-14 on Saturday, and have re-emerged as an SEC powerhouse even after their opening season loss to Florida State. I still have some major concerns about the Tide, especially their offensive line, which allowed four sacks and six tackles for loss against Vanderbilt.  However, their defense seems up to the task, as they forced three turnovers, and held Vanderbilt scoreless in the second half.  Alabama remains undefeated in SEC play, so they theoretically could take another loss and still make the conference championship game. 

6) Oklahoma Sooners (5-0, 1-0, +319) - After their 44-0 win over the Kent State Golden Flashes, the Oklahoma Twitter account started tweeting out team stats, including receiver Isaiah Sategna III having 97 punt return yards, the most by any Sooner since 2012.  Against Kent State.  In my opinion, the Sooners should lose scholarships for this.  They play some team called Texas next week. 

7) Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-0, 2-0, +319) - My opinion so far this season has been that the Big 12 has a lot of good teams in it, but no really elite teams. That opinion may be starting to change. The Red Raiders defeated the Houston Cougars 35-11 in Houston, their second consecutive 24-point road win over a previously undefeated Big 12 opponent.  Houston had been averaging 29 points per game, so Tech’s ability to relatively shut them down is impressive. The Red Raiders still have some significant challenges ahead, including a trip to Tempe in two weeks to play the Arizona State Sun Devils, but I’m considering them to be the best Big 12 team for now. 

8) Georgia Tech (5-0, 2-0, +315)

9) Iowa State (5-1, 2-1, +291)

10) Vanderbilt Commodores (5-1, 2-1, +282) - Despite their loss to Alabama, the Vanderbilt Commodores are still a very good football team who will continue to have an impact on the SEC title race.  Quarterback Diego Pavia had maybe the worst game of his career against the Crimson Tide, going 21/35 for 198 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and one costly fumble in the red zone.  To add insult to injury, Pavia got into a verbal altercation with an Alabama fan after the game, telling the fan “I do whatever the fuck I want.” Add this to the file of “Fans Behaving Badly.” 

11) Duke Blue Devils (4-2, 3-0, +279) - I don’t know what to make of the Duke Blue Devils.  They’re 3-0 in the ACC, with quality wins against (62) North Carolina State, (61) Syracuse, and (50) Cal.  Their two losses are to (22) Tulane and (23) Illinois.  It’s that “No Scrubs” schedule that has them ranked this highly, excepting FCS Elon.  Could Duke make a run at the ACC championship?  I mean, yeah, in the sense that really anyone could.  A big showdown against undefeated Georgia Tech awaits them next week.

Meanwhile, another complete fucking mystery are the California Golden Bears.  They have shown big improvement this season by reaching 4-2, but to be fair, two of their wins are against probably the two worst Power teams, Boston College and Oregon State. (Yes, I’m still counting Oregon State.)  Cal also could make a run in the ACC, and they should be favored in their next two games against North Carolina and Virginia Tech. 

12) Virginia (5-1, 3-0, +277)

13) Arizona State (4-1, 2-0, +274)

14) Indiana (5-0, 2-0, +261)

15) Cincinnati (4-1, 2-0, +254)

16) LSU (4-1, 1-1, +237) 

17) Memphis (6-0, 2-0, +229)

18) Oregon (5-0, 2-0, +227)

19) Missouri (5-0, 1-0, +224)

20) Washington (4-1, 1-1, +209)

21) TCU (4-1, 1-1, +203)

22) Tulane (4-1, 1-0, +201)

23) Illinois (5-1, 2-1, +201)

24) BYU Cougars (5-0, 2-0, +200) - Brigham Young started the season not considered a contender in the Big 12 Conference, but BYU coach Kalani Sitake has done miracles with a roster that is mostly rebuilding.  They mostly dominated a (bad) West Virginia team on Friday night, winning 38-24 despite committing three turnovers, including one particularly egregious fumble that set up West Virginia with a first and goal right before halftime.

Meanwhile, the Big 12 has fined the University of Colorado $50,000 for their fans' inappropriate behavior towards BYU players last week.  According to Newsweek, the conference “publicly reprimanded the university (of Colorado) for a derogatory chant directed at The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints by Buffaloes fans during the BYU game.” It will be interesting to keep tabs on this story, both for instances of fans behaving badly, and for any continued anti-LDS sentiments in college football. 

25) Houston (4-1, 1-1, +199) 

Week 5 Power Rankings: Don't Bet On Sports

 

1) Mississippi Rebels (5-0, 3-0, +504) - One of the persistent things of this week's power rankings is going to be that I am glad that I don't bet money on college football games.  Two weeks after going 8 for 9 in my picks, I probably went 1 for 9 this week.  Mississippi, in particular, has been a bad pattern for me, as I picked against them against Tulane, and then again against LSU.  Instead, the Rebels and their quarterback Trinidad Chambliss lit up what I thought was a pretty good Tiger defense for 314 passing yards and 484 total yards in a 24-19 victory. 

One of the disadvantages of my ranking system is that it has a tendency to over-weigh early season wins.  Mississippi is the benefactor of this system this season, as their wins against Arkansas, Tulane, and LSU have given them approximately a game and a half lead over the next group of teams (i.e., Texas A&M, Miami, Ohio State).  This means that the Rebels will probably have to lose not once but twice before they significantly drop in these rankings.  And maybe that will happen, but not for a while.  They do have back-to-back road games against Georgia and Oklahoma in October.  But do I dare pick against them in those games?  I'm not so sure anymore. 

2) Texas A&M Aggies (4-0, 1-0, +342) - Do I believe that Texas A&M is actually the second best team in the country?  No, not really.  But these rankings shouldn't be about what I believe, they should be about what I know, and I know that the Aggies are 4-0 with an SEC win, a win over a Power 5 team in Notre Dame, and 0 wins against FCS teams, and for now that's good enough to be my No. 2 team.  Their four wins are against No. 31 Auburn (+148), No. 40 Notre Dame (+106), No. 51 Utah State (+58), and No. 64 UTSA (+4).  Now, maybe they haven't looked particularly good at times against all (or any) of these opponents.  But beauty is in the eye of the beholder, is it not?

3) Miami Hurricanes (4-0, 0-0, +330) - The Hurricanes were on a bye this week.  Unfortunately for them, their opponents next weekend, Florida State, lost 46-38 in overtime to the Virginia Cavaliers, thus taking a little bit of a shine off of their showdown.  On the other hand, FSU's loss should make Miami's path to the ACC Championship a little easier.  If the Hurricanes can win next week in Tallahassee, then they will have the tie-breaker over Florida State in the conference standings, and should be the presumed favorite to at least play in the conference championship game in Charlotte. 

4) Iowa State (5-0, 2-0, +326)

5) Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0, +320) - So I'm not going to say that I went so far as to pick the Washington Huskies to upset Ohio State in Seattle on Saturday, but I definitely thought it would be closer than 24-6.  Washington was one of my sleeper picks to contend in the Big Ten, but they Dawgs shat the bed against the Buckeyes.  I knew Washington was in trouble even when they were up 3-0 in the first half, because they had had a 1st and Goal at the Ohio State 2-yard line, and then went:

    -1-yard run

    False Start

    -2-yard run

    0-yard run

    Field goal

That is how you lose a football game, especially as an underdog. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State's run defense is elite.  Washington only gained 61 yards on 30 rushing attempts, for 2 yards per carry.  This is a week after the Ohio Bobcats gained 68 yards rushing against the Buckeyes on 34 carries for ... 2 yards per carry.  Next week they host the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who beat Rutgers 31-28 in a game in which they rushed 17 times for 38 yards, for 2.2 yards per carry.  This will be ugly. 

6) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0, 2-0, +315) - Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good, and it seems like the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are out to prove that every week.  They rallied from down 20-3 against Wake Forest, and needed a failed 2-point conversion to win 30-29 in overtime, one of a record six different overtime games over the weekend.  Georgia Tech now has 3 wins by one score or less, and all three of those wins have come down to the last minute.  But let me tell you this right now: Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate is going to have playoff implications this year, and it just might be for the team you least suspect. 

7) Vanderbilt Commodores (5-0, 2-0, +295) - Nerd Alert! Nerd Alert! The Vanderbilt Commodores have improved to 5-0 for the first time since 2008 behind the stellar play of quarterback Diego Pavia, who has completed 76.4% percent of his passes and thrown for 13 touchdowns and rushed for 2 more so far this season.  Vanderbilt defeated Utah State 55-35, and have scored 245 total points through their first five games, the most by any SEC team since 1933. 

Trap game next week for the Commodores at Alabama. 

And, for what it's worth, here is Utah State's schedule so far this year:

W vs (133) UTEP 28-16

L @ (2) Texas A&M 22-44

W vs (128) Air Force 49-30

W vs FCS McNeese 48-7

L @ (7) Vanderbilt 35-55

8) Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0, +292)

9) Arizona State (4-1, 2-0, +274)

10) Indiana Hoosiers (5-0, 2-0, +261) - I don't know what to make of the Indiana Hoosiers.  They're a mystery.  One week, they look like the best team in the country as they dismantle a top-10 opponent at home.  The next, they struggle on the road, and escape with a 20-15 win against the Iowa Hawkeyes, who are once again the most Iowa-y of all football teams.  Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been having a great season, but had his toughest outing yet, throwing his first interception of the year, and completing "only" 56 percent of his passes for "only" 233 yards and 2 touchdowns.  But Indiana and coach Curt Cignetti got the job done, and now get a bye week before a road game at Oregon. 

11) LSU Tigers (4-1, 1-1, +237) - The team that I might have been the most wrong about this season - and I wasn't alone - was the LSU Tigers, who suffered their first loss of the season, 24-19 at Mississippi.  As I mentioned above, the Rebels were able to light up LSU's vaunted defense.  However, more concerning is LSU's seeming ineptitude on offense.  Against Mississippi, the Tigers rushed for 59 yards, and were 2 for 11 on their third down conversions.  Against Florida, LSU rushed for 96 yards, and against Clemson they rushed for 108 yards.  Things are not trending in the right direction.  However, for the time being, LSU still benefits from being a one-loss team in the SEC.  They get a bye week next week to try to get things right before they host a similarly one dimensional South Carolina Gamecocks.

12) Oregon Ducks (5-0, 2-0, +227) - I went to Oregon this weekend for my mother's 71st birthday, and so was, ironically, not able to watch most of the Oregon-Penn State game.  I watched most of the first half with my family before we went out for dinner, and then we returned with about two minutes left in regulation.  And when Penn State scored a touchdown to tie the game with 30 seconds left, I was certain that we had gotten back just in time to watch Oregon choke the game away.  However, the Ducks rallied, with quarterback Dante "The Inferno" Moore running 3 yards to convert on 4th and 1, and throwing to Gary Bryant Jr. for a 25-yard touchdown to put Oregon up 30-24 in the second overtime.  And on the next play from scrimmage, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar threw an interception into the leaping arms of Dillon Thieneman to seal the victory, and my whole family went berserk in our living room.

This was one of the few games that I picked correctly, because I'm an Oregon fan.  And even though the final score reflects what most people thought - that the game was a toss-up, or a slight edge to Penn State - the box score shows that Oregon was considerably better, outgaining the Nittany Lions 424 to 276, and winning the time of possession 33:52 to 26:08.  Oregon now gets a bye week before they host another top 10 team in Indiana. 

13) Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1, 1-0, +226) 

14) Missouri (5-0, 1-0, +224)

15) Houston (4-0, 1-0, +216) 

16) Tulane (4-1, 1-0, +201)

17) Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0, +197)

18) Tennessee (4-1, 1-1, +191)

19) Memphis (5-0, 1-0, +188)

20) Duke (3-2, 2-0, +188)

21) South Florida (3-1, 0-0, +183)

22) Utah (4-1, 1-1, +180)

23) Louisville (4-0, 1-0, +175)

24) Louisiana Tech (4-1, 3-0, +174)

25) North Texas (5-0, 1-0, +172)