Friday, September 19, 2025

Smooth Jimmy's Locks of the Week: Week 4

1) (34) Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0, +73) at (13) Utah (3-0, 0-0, +162) - This is a big one.  With early Big 12 favorites like Baylor and Arizona State stumbling, Texas Tech and Utah have emerged as potential front-runners in the conference race.  Utah quarterback Devon Dampier has looked great in early action against the likes of UCLA and Wyoming, and maybe he'll be able to get something cooking against a Tech defense that has given up 183 passing yards per game.  Also, Utah is at home in this game, so I think the (slight) edge goes to the Utes.  Utah 28, Texas Tech 20. 

2) (42) Arkansas (2-1, 0-1, +55) at (35) Memphis (3-0, 0-0, +70) - If the American Conference wants to make a big statement in front of a nationally televised audience, this weekend is their chance.  First up will be the Memphis Tigers hosting the Arkansas Razorbacks.  These two teams have played each other only five times in history, with the latest being way back in 1998, a 23-9 win for the Razorbacks.  I really, really want to pick Memphis here, but I just can't bring myself to do it, especially since I think that Arkansas will be able to score at will in this game. But take the over.  Arkansas 49, Memphis 31. 

3) (121) Oregon State (0-3, 0-0, -145) at (21) Oregon (3-0, 1-0, +119) - The largest margin of victory in this 131-year long rivalry was in 2017, a 69-10 Ducks victory.  I don't think this one will top it, but it might.  Of course, you never know with it being a rivalry game, with Oregon looking ahead to Penn State next week, blah blah blah.  Expect a blow out.  Oregon 52, Oregon State 13. 

4) (11) Auburn (3-0, 0-0, +167) at (12) Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0, +166) - These are two teams who I did not expect to be contenders in the stacked SEC at the beginning of the season, but who both sure look like it now. I am still not sold on Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, who is right now 71/105 on the season, and has thrown for 944 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.  But I am sold on the Oklahoma defense, who is 4th in the nation in points allowed (6.3), 4th in total yards allowed (181), and 2nd in passing yards allowed (84.7). Oklahoma 23, Auburn 13.

5) (15) Tulane (3-0, 0-0, +158) at (2) Mississippi (3-0, 2-0, +251) - This is my upset special of the week.  The Mississippi Rebels have been living dangerously recently, beating Kentucky 30-23 and Arkansas 41-35.  They held lowly Georgia State to only 7 points, but also allowed 191 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry.  And Tulane has problematic quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who has rushed for 288 yards and 6 touchdowns on 7.2 yards per carry.  I anticipate turnovers to be a major factor in this game. Tulane 31, Mississippi 28. 

6) (75) Florida (1-2, 0-1, -8) at (1) Miami (FL) (3-0, 0-0, +268) - The terrible gauntlet for the Florida Gators continues.  And after dismantling South Florida last week, I do not expect Miami to let up this week.  Miami 38, Florida 14. 

7) (28) Illinois (3-0, 0-0, +87) at (44) Indiana (3-0, 0-0, +51) - The game of the week might be being played this week in Bloomington, Indiana.  Both the Illini and the Hoosiers are ranked in the AP Top 20, and are playing each other as ranked teams for the first time since 1950, when No. 12 Illinois shut out No. 19 Indiana 20-0 in Champaign.  And, even though Illinois is once again the higher ranked team, I have to hold my nose and pick against my hometown team.  Indiana 28, Illinois 17. 

8) (26) Michigan State (3-0, 0-0, +90) at (25) USC (3-0, 1-0, +91) - People are just starting to figure this out, but USC might be a problem.  Granted, the Trojans have been putting up video game-like stats against some of the worst teams in college football, but they are averaging 55 points per game versus 17 for their opponents.  They are averaging 9.6 yards per play from scrimmage over the course of three games. Sure, it's neat that this game is being played at ten o'clock at night, and is the Spartans versus the Trojans, but, uh, Odysseus might need more than ten years to get back to East Lansing, if you know what I'm saying. USC 41, Michigan State 21. 



 

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