Power Rankings - Nov. 10

1) Florida State (9-0, 7-0, +22) - The Seminoles remain not only undefeated, but also largely unchallenged as well. They beat Wake Forest 59-3, and all but one of their wins have been by 27 points or more. They're guaranteed a spot in the ACC Championship Game, which should give them one more quality win for their résumé. But I don't think they'll need it.  They finish their conference schedule next week against Syracuse. SoS: -18

2) Stanford (8-1, 6-1, +21) - I imagine that to see the world as David Shaw sees it would mean that everything can be ordered, arranged, that the blooming, buzzing confusion of existence can always be set right by a combinatin of running packages that use additional tight ends as blockers, and that the best thing about being up 7-0 is never having to pass the ball ever again.  Less Van Gogh; more Mondrian. SoS: -6.333

3) Oregon (8-1, 5-1, +15) - The chief existential question that has plagued the Ducks ever since the 2010 Rose Bowl has been, "What do you do when the one thing you do that makes you you doesn't work?" The Cardinal was able to negate all of the Ducks advantages - prevent big plays, get third down stops, don't commit turnovers - and the Ducks were left in a meaningless abyss of Being and Nothingness. Speaking of which - they play Utah next week. (BURN!) SoS: -17.222

4) Alabama (9-0, 6-0, +15) - Yes, of course I would match-up Alabama and FSU in the national championship.  Because even though it's 46th in high school graduation rates, 49th in life expectancy, and 47th in poverty rates, Alabama will always be #1 at college football. SoS: -17.111

5) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +12) - The Buckeyes continued their tear through the Big Ten with their "bye" week, which proved only slightly more difficult than defeating Purdue.  SoS: -21.222

6) Baylor (8-0, 5-0, +11) - OK, I am now impressed by Baylor. They crushed Oklahoma 41-12, and just as impressive as their offense was their defense, which held the Sooners to 87 rushing yards on 2.6 yards per carry. The Sooners had two drives the entire game that were more than 50 yards, and they got 7 points from them, compared to the Bears' 7 drives of 50+ yards that netted 34 points. Also, what fat cat do I have to bribe to get a Baylor-Oregon Fiesta Bowl? SoS: -22.625.  As an aside, both Ohio State (40-20) and Baylor (70-13) have wins over the Buffalo Bulls, who have won all of their other 7 games. However, the combined records of Buffalo's six other FBS opponents is 13-44. Even after playing 2 top 6 teams, Buffalo's SoS is only -28.778.  But if it comes down to the voters, Baylor should definitely point to those games as a reason why they should get ranked ahead of the Buckeyes. 

7) Clemson (8-1, 6-1, +10) - On their bye week, Clemson got a little bit of good news/bad news. Florida State's win shuts the Tigers out of the ACC Championship.  However, Miami's loss means that Clemson should be the No. 2 ACC team, and that would make them very desirable to the Orange Bowl if the Seminoles end up playing for the National Championship. SoS: -16.778

8) Northern Illinois (9-0, 5-0, +9) - After crushing their first five MAC opponents, NIU may finally get a challenge when they play Ball State on Wednesday night.  In his last three games, QB Jordan Lynch has had total yards of 322, 279, and 471.  Of course, that was against Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Massachusetts. SoS: -38.444

9) Fresno State (9-0, 6-0, +9) - Fresno State is one spot ahead of Northern Illinois and 3 ahead of UCF in this week's BCS rankings, so they have (for now) the inside track on the BCS, probably the Fiesta Bowl.  And while I agree that a pair of one-point wins over Rutgers and Boise State do not a BCS contender make, who are they screwing over by stealing that spot? Oklahoma? Michigan State? SoS: -29.889

10) Missouri (9-1, 5-1, +8) - Missouri? Probably not. The Tigers took care of business at Kentucky, and now have a bye week. They have two games left, both of which will be difficult: at Mississippi and vs Texas A&M.  If they win out, then they're in the SEC Championship. Right behind them is South Carolina, who will win the division with a win over Florida and if Missouri loses once. Georgia could still win the division, too, if Missouri loses both games and if they win out against Auburn and Kentucky. And if there's a 3-way tie? Then it would get thrown to the BCS, who would probably pick South Carolina. SoS: -17.6

11) Auburn (9-1, 5-1, +8) - You know who else controls their own destiny in the SEC? The Auburn Tigers, who have two more games, at home, against Georgia and Alabama. Wouldn't that mess with everyone's narrative? SoS: -19.2

12) UCLA (7-2, 4-2, +7) - Sy Stokes posted this video about the lack of diversity at UCLA: http://laist.com/2013/11/10/video_black_ucla_students_highlight.php. UCLA's student population is only 3.8 percent Black, whereas Los Angeles is 9.6% Black. (By contrast, the University of Alabama is 12.6% Black, and the state is 26.7%. So they're not the worst at everything.) SoS: -15

13) UCF (7-1, 4-0, +7)
14) Michigan State (8-1, 5-0, +5)

15) Miami (FL) (7-2, 3-2, +4)

16) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2, +4)

17) Oklahoma (7-2, 4-2, +3)
18) Louisville (8-1, 4-1, +3)
19) Ball State (9-1, 6-0, +3)

20) Oklahoma State (8-1, 5-1, +3)

21) Arizona State (7-2, 5-1, +3)
22) Washington (6-3, 3-3, +3)
23) Georgia (6-3, 4-2, +2)
24) Minnesota (8-2, 4-2, +1)

25) LSU (7-3, 3-3, 0)

My Top 25

Here's the thing: If you were to come to me tomorrow and say, "Joel, you must decide, arbitrarily, which two teams will play for the National Championship," I would say, "Florida State and Alabama." Honestly, right now I think that Florida State is heads and shoulders above everyone else, and that they have an offense as good as Oregon's and a defense better than Alabama's.

On the other hand:

STANFORD	W vs 3 Oregon	W vs 12 UCLA	W vs 21 Arizona State	W vs 22 Washington	W @ 33 Oregon State	L @ 64 Utah
ALABAMA	W vs 25 LSU	W @ 31 Virginia Tech	W @ 34 Texas A&M	W vs 37 Mississippi	W vs 54 Tennessee	W vs 82 Colorado State	W vs 99 Arkansas	W @ 102 Kentucky	W vs 124 Georgia State

Stanford has four wins better than Alabama's best win.  Is this enough to offset a bad loss at Utah, the 64th best team in the country?  I don't know.  But I bet that these will be things that the selection committee will consider in the years to come.  (And how much credence should we give to the fact that Stanford beat San Jose State by 21 points, and San Jose State beat Colorado State by 7 points, and Alabama beat Colorado State by 25 points?  None? Some? Does this mean that we should favor Stanford by 4 over Alabama?  Or does it mean absolutely nothing at all?)

1) Florida State (9-0, 7-0, +22)

2) Stanford (8-1, 6-1, +21)

3) Oregon (8-1, 5-1, +15)
4) Alabama (9-0, 6-0, +15)
5) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +12)

6) Baylor (8-0, 5-0, +11)

7) Clemson (8-1, 6-1, +10)
8) Northern Illinois (9-0, 5-0, +9)
9) Fresno State (9-0, 6-0, +9)

10) Missouri (9-1, 5-1, +8)

11) Auburn (9-1, 5-1, +8)
12) UCLA (7-2, 4-2, +7)

13) UCF (7-1, 4-0, +7)
14) Michigan State (8-1, 5-0, +5)

15) Miami (FL) (7-2, 3-2, +4)

16) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2, +4)

17) Oklahoma (7-2, 4-2, +3)
18) Louisville (8-1, 4-1, +3)
19) Ball State (9-1, 6-0, +3)

20) Oklahoma State (8-1, 5-1, +3)

21) Arizona State (7-2, 5-1, +3)
22) Washington (6-3, 3-3, +3)
23) Georgia (6-3, 4-2, +2)
24) Minnesota (8-2, 4-2, +1)

25) LSU (7-3, 3-3, 0)

Wisconsin (7-2, 4-1, 0)

Buffalo (7-2, 5-0, -1)

Houston (7-2, 4-1, -2)

Duke (7-2, 3-2, -2)
Texas (6-2, 5-0, -2)
Virginia Tech (7-3, 4-2, -2)
Arizona (6-3, 3-3, -3)
Oregon State (6-3, 4-2, -3)
Texas A&M (7-2, 3-2, -3)

Nebraska (7-2, 4-1, -4)

 Notre Dame (7-3, 0-0, -5)
Mississippi (6-3, 3-3, -5)
East Carolina (7-2, 5-1, -5)
Cincinnati (7-2, 4-1, -5)

Louisiana-Lafayette (7-2, 4-0, -5)

Michigan (6-3, 2-3, -7)

Brigham Young (6-3, 0-0, -7)

Rice (6-3, 4-1, -7)

Rutgers (5-3, 2-2, -8)

Georgia Tech (6-3, 5-2, -8)
Toledo (6-3, 4-1, -8)

USC (7-3, 4-2, -8)
Penn State (5-4, 2-3, -9)

Iowa (6-4, 3-3, -9)

North Texas (7-3, 5-1, -9)
Texas Tech (8-3, 5-3, -10)

Texas State (5-3, 1-2, -10)
Bowling Green (6-3, 4-1, -10)
Tennessee (4-6, 1-5, -11)
Boise State (6-3, 4-1, -11)
Old Dominion (7-3, 0-0, -11)
Ohio (6-3, 3-2, -12)

Middle Tennessee (6-3, 4-1, -12)
San Diego State (5-4, 4-1, -12)

Marshall (5-3, 3-1, -13)
Syracuse (5-4, 3-2, -13)
Maryland (5-4, 1-4, -14)

Vanderbilt (5-4, 2-4, -14)
Utah (4-5, 1-5, -15)
Washington State (4-5, 2-4, -15)
Boston College (5-4, 2-3, -15)

North Carolina (4-5, 3-3, -16)

Kansas State (5-4, 3-3, -17)
San Jose State (5-4, 4-2, -18)
Tulane (6-4, 4-2, -18)
Wake Forest (4-6, 2-5, -18)

Pittsburgh (5-4, 2-3, -18)
Western Kentucky (6-4, 2-3, -18)
Arkansas State (5-4, 3-1, -18)
Utah State (6-4, 5-1, -18)
Florida  (4-5, 3-4, -19)
Mississippi State (4-5, 1-4, -19) 

TCU (4-5, 1-5, -19)
Navy (5-4, 0-0, -19)

Indiana (4-5, 2-3, -20)

South Alabama (3-4, 1-2, -21)

Colorado State (5-5, 3-2, -21)
West Virginia (4-6, 2-5, -22)
Louisiana-Monroe (5-5, 3-2, -22)
Wyoming (4-5, 2-3, -22)
Northwestern (4-5, 0-5, -22)
UTSA (5-5, 4-2, -22)
North Carolina State (3-6, 0-5, -23)
UNLV (5-5, 3-3, -24)
Troy (5-5, 3-3, -25)
Illinois (3-6, 0-5, -26)
Colorado (3-6, 0-6, -26)

Louisiana Tech (4-5, 3-2, -26)
SMU (3-5, 2-2, -27)
South Florida (2-6, 2-2, -27)
Central Michigan (3-6, 2-3, -28)

Akron (3-7, 2-4, -30)
Florida Atlantic (3-6, 2-4, -30)
Arkansas (3-7, 0-6, -31)

Memphis (2-6, 0-4, -32)

Kansas (2-7, 0-6, -32)

Kentucky (2-7, 0-5,  -32)

New Mexico (3-6, 1-4, -33)

Army (3-7, 0-0, -34)

Nevada (3-7, 2-5, -34)

Tulsa  (2-7, 1-4, -37)

UAB (2-7, 1-4, -37)

Virginia (1-8, 0-6, -38)

Connecticut (0-8, 0-4, -39)

Temple (1-8, 0-5, -39)

Kent State (2-8, 1-5, -41)

Iowa State (1-8, 0-6, -42)

California (1-9, 0-7, -42)

Purdue (1-8, 0-5, -42)

Massachusetts (1-8, 1-4, -43)

Western Michigan (1-8, 1-4, -45)
Air Force (2-8, 0-6, -46)

Florida International (1-8, 1-4, -46) 

UTEP (1-8, 0-5, -47)

New Mexico State (1-9, 0-0, -47)

Southern Miss (0-8, 0-4, -47)

Eastern Michigan (2-9, 1-6, -48)
Georgia State (0-9, 0-4, -49)
Idaho (1-9, 0-0, -51)
Hawaii (0-9, 0-6, -53)
Miami (OH) (0-9, 0-5, -54)

Power Rankings - Nov. 03

With three of the top five teams and nine of the top 25 not playing this weekend, there wasn't a whole lot of movement in my Power Rankings. However, next week there are four games between Top 25 teams; two of them on Thursday!  So, for now most of our suppositions and predictions remain strictly academic.  By next week, though, it will be actual.

1) Florida State (8-0, 6-0, +21) - The Seminoles had their second prime time win over a top 10 opponent, this time 41-14 over Miami.  Even in what seemed like an "off" night, Jameis Winston was 21/29, with 325 yards, 1TD, and 2 INTs.  Nevertheless, I imagine that the computers will have FSU #1. They have passed the toughest part of their schedule, with their remaining opponents being Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho, and Florida. SoS: -14.5

2) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +16) - There's not a lot to report on the Ducks on their bye week.  Anyone who plays, coaches, or works for the University of Oregon football program will be focused on their game Thursday night against Stanford.  However, academically speaking, we can be worried for them about Oregon State's 31-14 loss to USC.  At the end of the season, the Ducks' argument for being ranked in the Top 2 may rest on their being able to point to at least four wins against Top 25 teams: UCLA, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon State.  Now that argument looks lost, especially with Oregon State and Washington still playing each other next week.  SoS: -19

3) Stanford (7-1, 5-1, +15) - In last year's overtime win over the Ducks, David Shaw basically laid down the blueprint for beating Oregon: Have your linebackers stay home and fill the gaps, don't allow big gains, force three-and-outs, control the ball behind your "ogre" O-Line.  I'm guessing that they'll follow a similar plan on Thursday, but I think there will be two big challenges: The losses of defensive ends Ben Gardner and Henry Anderson, and the fact that Oregon has forced 23 turnovers while committing 9, whereas Stanford has caused 10 and committed 11. SoS: -7.25

4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13) - Alabama's annual showdown with LSU has been circled in red all year and, along with Texas A&M, seemed liked the Tide's biggest challenges. However, they have another obstacle at the end of the year: 8-1 and number 12 ranked Auburn.  SoS: -18.625

5) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +12) - For the second consecutive week, Ohio State crushed an overmatched Big Ten foe, this time beating Purdue, 56-0.  The one thing that all the pollsters agree on is that the Buckeyes will be on the outside looking in should any of the teams above them remain undefeated. Sure, they have a good win against Wisconsin, but Michigan and Northwestern continue to keep losing.  And, by the end of the season, Ohio State may also have wins against No. 112 Purdue, No. 111 California, No. 94 Northwestern, No. 90 Indiana, and No. 86 Illinois. SoS: -19.667

6) Miami (FL) (7-1, 3-1, +10) - Miami was able to hang with Florida State for 30 minutes, and only trailed 21-14 at halftime.  However, the wheels came off in the second half.  Even though their offense was still able to gain yards, four consecutive Miami drives ended: interception, downs, interception, downs.  Unlike Clemson, Miami may get another crack at Florida State in the ACC championship, but they will probably have to win out against Virginia Tech, Duke, Virginia, and Pittsburgh.  SoS: -17.375

7) Clemson (8-1, 6-1, +10)

8) Northern Illinois (9-0, 5-0, +9) - SoS: -40.75

9) Fresno State (8-0, 5-0, +8) -  It seems as if, at this point in this season, either Northern Illinois or Fresno State will get an invitation to a BCS Bowl.  And Fresno, right now, has the upper hand in getting that invite.  However, NIU will have a chance to make their case, with future games against Ball State and Toledo.  SoS: -20

10) Baylor (7-0, 4-0, +7) - I got a Twitter question last week asking why I had Baylor so low, especially considering that I had them below a Miami team that had barely escaped North Carolina and Wake Forest.  Yes, I know that they have the best offense east of the Sierras, but their best win is still probably against Buffalo.  They are about to embark on a series of games against Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. If they get to 10-0, then I'll move them up.  But they're not getting to 10-0.  (If they get to 8-0, I will move them to 6th or 7th.) SoS: -22.571

11) Missouri (8-1, 4-1, +7)

12) Auburn (8-1, 4-1, +7)
13) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +6)
14) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +5)
15) UCF (6-1, 3-0, +5)

16) Michigan State (8-1, 5-0, +5) - In the latest AP poll, Michigan State is 18th, one of three Big Ten teams in the Top 25.  The Spartans beat Michigan 29-6, and now have the inside track on meeting Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Legends division, A.K.A. "mnimnn" is 0-2 in the Big Ten Championship so far. A Spartans-Buckeyes match-up would most likely make that 0-3. SoS: -23. (In other words, not quite as difficult as Fresno State's schedule.) 

17) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2, +4)
18) Louisville (7-1, 3-1, +2)
19) Ball State (8-1, 5-0, +2)

20) Oklahoma State (7-1, 4-1, +2)

21) Arizona State (6-2, 4-1, +2) - The Sun Devils continue to make statements in the Pac-12, this thumping Washington State 55-21, their third straight game scoring more than 50 points.  They are still in first place in the Pac-12 South, a game ahead of UCLA, USC, and Arizona. They have already beaten the Trojans, and their final two games are at UCLA and at home against Arizona. SoS: -9.5

22) Washington (5-3, 2-3, +2)

23) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +1) - The first ever game between LSU and Alabama was on November 18, 1895, which was a 12-6 win for LSU. The Tigers won their second game against Alabama, too, in 1902. And although they trail the Tide overall, with a record of 25-47-5, they have won 9 of the last 14. SoS: -18.889

24) Georgia (5-3, 4-2, +1) - I left the Florida-Georgia game at halftime, and with Georgia leading 23-3. This was about what I had expected from this game. But then Florida started a comeback, taking advantage of Georgia mistakes, including a safety and a missed field goal. Georgia was trying to put the game away with an 8-minute, 72-yard drive. But when it looked like the Gators had stopped them on a 3rd and 5, they committed a personal foul that would seal the win for the Bulldogs. With games left against Auburn and Kentucky, Georgia still has a slim chance at winning the SEC East. Florida does not though. Florida State's biggest win against the Gators was in 1988, 52-17. That record might be at risk this year.  SoS: -3

25) Houston (7-1, 4-0, +1) - SoS: -23.25

My Top 25

1) Florida State (8-0, 6-0, +21)

2) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +16) 
3) Stanford (7-1, 5-1, +15)
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13)
5) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +12)

6) Miami (FL) (7-1, 3-1, +10)
7) Clemson (8-1, 6-1, +10)
8) Northern Illinois (9-0, 5-0, +9)
9) Fresno State (8-0, 5-0, +8)
10) Baylor (7-0, 4-0, +7)

11) Missouri (8-1, 4-1, +7)
12) Auburn (8-1, 4-1, +7)
13) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +6)
14) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +5)
15) UCF (6-1, 3-0, +5)

16) Michigan State (8-1, 5-0, +5)
17) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2, +4)
18) Louisville (7-1, 3-1, +2)
19) Ball State (8-1, 5-0, +2)

20) Oklahoma State (7-1, 4-1, +2)

21) Arizona State (6-2, 4-1, +2)
22) Washington (5-3, 2-3, +2)
23) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +1)
24) Georgia (5-3, 4-2, +1)
25) Houston (7-1, 4-0, +1)

Notre Dame (7-2, 0-0, +1)

Minnesota (7-2, 3-2, 0)

Arizona (6-2, 3-2, 0)

Michigan (6-2, 2-2, -1)

Brigham Young (6-2, 0-0, -1)
Wisconsin (6-2, 4-1, -1)
Buffalo (6-2, 4-0, -2)

Oregon State (6-3, 4-2, -3)
Duke (6-2, 2-2, -3)
Penn State (5-3, 2-2, -3)
Texas (5-2, 4-0, -3)
Texas A&M (7-2, 3-2, -3)

Texas Tech (7-2, 4-2, -5)
Nebraska (6-2, 3-1, -5)
Ohio (6-2, 3-1, -6)
Mississippi (5-3, 2-3, -6)
East Carolina (6-2, 4-1, -6)
Cincinnati (6-2, 3-1, -6)
Louisiana-Lafayette (6-2, 3-0, -6)

Virginia Tech (6-3, 3-2, -7)

Rice (6-3, 4-1, -7)

Tennessee (4-5, 1-4, -8)
Maryland (5-3, 1-3, -8)
Rutgers (5-3, 2-2, -8)

Georgia Tech (6-3, 5-2, -8)
Toledo (6-3, 4-1, -8)

USC (6-3, 3-2, -9)

Iowa (5-4, 2-3, -10)
Utah (4-4, 1-4, -10)

Texas State (5-3, 1-2, -10)
North Texas (6-3, 4-1, -10)
Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1, -11)
Boise State (6-3, 4-1, -11)

Tulane (6-3, 4-1, -12)
San Jose State (5-3, 4-1, -12)

Florida  (4-4, 3-3, -13)
Mississippi State (4-4, 1-3, -13)
San Diego State (4-4, 3-1, -13)
Middle Tennessee (5-3, 3-1, -13)

Marshall (4-3, 2-1, -14)

Old Dominion (4-3, 0-0, -14)
Syracuse (4-4, 2-2, -14)

Washington State (4-5, 2-4, -15)

Vanderbilt (4-4, 1-4, -15)
West Virginia (4-5, 2-4, -16)
Boston College (4-4, 2-3, -16)
Louisiana-Monroe (5-4, 3-1, -16)

Wake Forest (4-5, 2-4, -17)

North Carolina State (3-5, 0-4, -17)
North Carolina (3-5, 2-3, -17)

UNLV (5-4, 3-2, -18)
Kansas State (4-4, 2-3, -18)

Pittsburgh (4-4, 2-3, -19)
Troy (5-4, 3-2, -19)
Western Kentucky (5-4, 2-3, -19)
Arkansas State (4-4, 2-1, -19)
Utah State (5-4, 4-1, -19)

Illinois (3-5, 0-4, -20)

TCU (3-5, 1-4, -20)
Navy (4-4, 0-0, -20)

Wyoming (4-4, 2-2, -20)

Indiana (3-5, 1-3, -21)

South Alabama (3-4, 1-2, -21)

Colorado (3-5, 0-5, -21)
SMU (3-4, 2-1, -21)

Northwestern (4-5, 0-5, -22)
Colorado State (4-5, 2-2, -22)
UTSA (4-5, 3-2, -23)

Central Michigan (3-5. 2-2, -24)

Arkansas (3-6, 0-5, -25)

South Florida (2-6, 2-2, -27)
Louisiana Tech (3-5, 2-2, -27)

Kansas (2-6, 0-5, -28)
Army (3-6, 0-0, -28)

Nevada (3-6, 2-4, -28)
Kentucky (2-6, 0-4,  -29)
Akron (3-7, 2-4, -30)
Florida Atlantic (3-6, 2-4, -30)

Tulsa  (2-6, 1-3, -31)

UAB (2-6, 1-3, -31)

Virginia (1-7, 0-5, -32)

Memphis (1-6, 0-4, -33)

New Mexico (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Connecticut (0-7, 0-3, -35)

Iowa State (1-7, 0-5, -36)

California (1-8, 0-6, -36)

Purdue (1-7, 0-4, -36)

Temple (1-8, 0-5, -39)
Western Michigan (1-7, 1-3, -39)

Florida International (1-7, 1-3, -40)
Air Force (2-7, 0-5, -40)

Kent State (2-8, 1-5, -41)

UTEP (1-7, 0-4, -41)

New Mexico State (1-8, 0-0, -41)

Southern Miss (0-7, 0-3, -41)

Massachusetts (1-8, 1-4, -43)

Idaho (1-8, 0-0, -45)
Hawaii (0-8, 0-6, -47)
Miami (OH) (0-8, 0-4, -48)

Georgia State (0-9, 0-4, -49)

Eastern Michigan (1-9, 0-6, -49)

Conference Power Rankings

(X1-X2) = Non-conference record
(Y1-Y2) = Record vs. FBS
(Z1 -Z2) = Record vs. BCS
(.abc) = (X1+Y1+Z1)/(X1+Y1+Z1+X2+Y2+Z2)

1) Pac-12 (29-6) (21-5) (6-5) .788
The Pac-12's 6-5 record against other BCS teams includes wins against the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten; but also 2 losses to Notre Dame.

2) SEC (36-8) (28-8) (7-7) .763
The Pac-12 and the SEC are 1-1 against each other, with Auburn (7-1, 3-1) defeating Washington State  (4-5, 2-4) 31-24, and Oregon (8-0, 5-0) defeating Tennessee (4-4, 1-3) 59-14.

3) Big Ten (37-10) (26-10) (9-8) .720
After a quick start, the Big Ten stalled out, going 3-7 against BCS opponents since week 3.

4) Big 12 (22-8)  (16-6) (3-4) .706


5) ACC (34-11) (23-11) (6-6) .692

American (19-20) (13-18) (4-11) .423

Power Rankings - Oct. 27

1) Oregon Ducks (8-0, 5-0, +16) - After watching both Florida State and Alabama absolutely destroy inferior opponents by scores of 49-17 and 45-10 on Saturday, I was prepared to admit that they were the two best teams in the country when the Ducks were tied 14-14 with UCLA at home.  Oregon had committed turnovers, had punts blocked, and missed another Maldonado field goal.  But then they came out and dominated the No. 12 team in the country in the second half en route to a 42-14 win.  So, I have no idea who should be 1 and 2.  The Ducks are here now - they'll be replaced by the winner of FSU-Miami next week, but could regain the place if they win their Thursday, Nov. 7 with Stanford.  They won't be able to get away with sloppy first half play in that game.  Strength of Schedule (SoS): -16.5

2) Florida State (7-0, 5-0, +15) - Strength of Schedule: -15.428

3) Stanford (7-1, 5-1, +15) - SoS: -5.5

4) Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0, +13) - I had hopes that Tennessee - after hanging with Georgia and upsetting South Carolina - would be able to challenge Alabama.  Nope.  Alabama won easily, 45-10, and now, after Missouri's loss, are alone on top of the SEC.  They have a bye next week, and still have challenges ahead against LSU and maybe Auburn, but it's pretty clear right now that Alabama is in a league of their own.  SoS: -15.875

4-4 Tennessee has a Strength of Schedule of -7.25.  They still have one-loss Missouri and one-loss Auburn on their schedule.  Still, 4-4 isn't bad considering they have the Schedule from Hell.  They also play Vanderbilt and Kentucky, and they can get bowl eligible with 2 more wins.

5) Miami Hurricanes (7-0, 3-0, +11) - The Seminoles may turn out to be the big winners of Miami's last minute win over Wake Forest, 24-21, as that raises the stakes of their game next week.  The Hurricanes have been livin' on a prayer for a while now; coming from behind to beat Georgia Tech, North Carolina (by 4) and Wake Forest.  Reason would dictate that they are due for a butt-kicking at the hands of Florida State next week.  But that's also what I said about Texas and Oklahoma, too.  So, basically, don't listen to anything I say. SoS: -19.857

6) Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0, 4-0, +11) - The Buckeyes knew that they were playing in primetime, and they delivered, kicking Penn State's butts 63-14.  This is the same Penn State team that beat Michigan in overtime.  According to the AP, this is Penn State's worst loss since losing to the Duquesne Athletic Club 64-5 on November 25, 1899.  Duquesne would win the Pittsburgh city championship that year, and featured left tackle Otman Franklin Wagonhurst, who would later coach Alabama, be elected the Chief Engineer for the Delaware & Eastern Railroad company, and is buried in Akron, Ohio.  Ohio State is at Purdue next weekend.  SoS: -15

7) Clemson (7-1, 5-1, +9)

8) Northern Illinois (8-0, 4-0, +8) - SoS: -32.25

9) Fresno State Bulldogs (7-0, 4-0, +7) - The Bulldogs needed overtime to beat San Diego State 35-28, their 4th win by 7 points or less.  They are at home against Nevada next weekend.  SoS: -24.142

10) Baylor Bears (7-0, 4-0, +7) - They beat Kansas 59-14 and are at home against Oklahoma next week.  Their two best wins are against Buffalo (MAC) and West Virginia (3-4).  I don't think they will 10 games this year.  SoS: -21.285  

There are eight FBS teams left who are undefeated.  Based on strength of schedule, the rankings should go: 1) Ohio State, 2) Florida State, 3) Alabama, 4) Oregon, 5) Miami, 6) Baylor, 7) Fresno State, 8) Northern Illinois.  The Top 4 teams are all very very close.  The Buckeyes are at a disadvantage with the humans because of the perceived weakness of the Big Ten, their lack of blow out wins (until last night), and their lack of ranked opponents.  If the Ducks win out, they should have the support of both humans (who like their flash) and the computers, who like the Pac-12 and will like 4 top 25 wins and 7 wins against .... let's say the top 54.  But that also means that they are the most likely the team to lose a game.  I don't think that the humans will allow Alabama to be left out of the top 2, but the computers will punish them if they finish the season with only 2 wins against the top 25.  

Everybody seems to agree that some combination of Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State are the top 4, with Stanford as the top 1-loss team.  Where I am the outlier is Texas A&M, who I have 40th, whereas they are #12 in the AP, and were #16 last week in the BCS, #18 with the computers, although it looks like this week the Massey computer has them 10th and Sagarin has them 9th.  Let me make my argument why they should be lower: 

#1: I hate Johnny Manziel.

#2: Fuck Johnny Manziel.

#3: They have no good wins.  Their wins are against: (32) Rice, FCS Sam Houston State, (90) SMU, (93) Arkansas, (46) Mississippi, and (53) Mississippi State.  So their best win is against a good C-USA team, whose only other loss this year has been to Houston.  

#4: They have two home losses, and have also played exactly 2 road games.  They are 2-0 on the road.  One of these was a 45-33 win a Arkansas.  Arkansas' only other home loss was against South Carolina.  They lost that game 52-7.  Texas A&M is currently 12th in the AP.  South Carolina is 14th.  

#5: The polls think that they have two "good losses" - 49-42 against undefeated #1 Alabama, and 45-41 against one-loss #8 Auburn.  First of all, a good loss is still a loss, and when you only get 12 data points, every loss counts.  Now, I like Auburn, and think they're real good.  But they beat my #57 Washington State at home 31-24, and that WSU team lost at home to Oregon State by 28 points.  (Auburn is 8th in the AP, Oregon State is unranked.)  They also beat my #53 Mississippi State 24-20, and that MSU team lost at Oklahoma State 21-3.  (OkSt. is 18th in the AP.)  And while I understand the problems with triangulation, I still think that I have an argument that Texas A&M should be considered slight favorites against Washington State or Mississippi State.

Their inflation is based on the fact that they scored 42 points and gained 628 yards against #1 Alabama, who has given up 36 points and 1,419 yards in their other 7 games combined. (5.1 ppg, 202, ypg) And yes, that's impressive. But they lost.  I don't think it is a good sign if your best game is a loss.  

#6: Turnovers: The two team stats that are most predictive of success are yards per play and turnovers.  The Aggies have forced 15 turnovers and have committed 14.  

#7: Their defense is atrocious.  Of 125 FBS teams, Texas A&M is ranked 110th in terms of yards allowed per game.  

I have the Aggies penciled in at 8-4.  They'll play in the Capital One or Outback Bowls, against Nebraska or Michigan State.  And they'll win.   

11) Missouri (7-1, 3-1, +6)

12) Auburn Tigers (7-1, 3-1, +6) - The AP poll just came out, and OMG guys!  The AP has Auburn 8th, followed by Clemson (9), Missouri (10) and LSU (11).  That's right: TIGERS, TIGERS, TIGERS, TIGERS. Oh my! Next week: at Arkansas.  SoS: -15.875

13) UCLA Bruins (5-2, 2-2, +5) - The Bruins dropped from 12th to 17th in the AP poll, although I only dropped them two spots after losing at Oregon, 42-14.  UCLA was able to run against the Ducks, picking up 219 yards on 4.2 yards per carry, but their passing game was taken out.  Brett Hundley was 13/19, for 64 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs.  That's season lows for him in attempts, completions, yards, and TDs, and a season high in INTs.  After back-to-back road losses to Stanford and Oregon, UCLA gets a reprieve next week when they host Colorado. SoS: -10.857.  Nebraska's loss to Minnesota robs UCLA of their only win over another top 25 team.  

14) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +5)
15) UCF (6-1, 3-0, +5)

16) Michigan (6-1, 2-1, +4)
17) Oregon State (6-2, 4-1, +3)
18) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2, +3)

19) Louisville Cardinals (7-1, 3-1, +2) - My wife's uncle went to graduate school in racetrack management at Louisville, and so, when she was little, there was a lot of Louisville gear around their house.  One day, her dad was wearing a Louisville shirt, and he asked his daughter (who was, like, three) what animal was on his shirt.  After careful consideration, she answered him, "Dad, that is an angry parrot."  The Angry Parrots are at Connecticut next week.  SoS: -22

20) Ball State (8-1, 5-0, +2)

21) Michigan State (7-1, 4-0, +2)

22) Washington Huskies (5-3, 2-3, +2) - The Huskies were able to halt their 3-game losing streak by beating hapless Cal 41-17.  The rest of the season is: bye, vs. Colorado, at UCLA, at Oregon State, vs. Washington State.  A 7-5 season would be disappointing; 9-3 would be exciting.  8-4 would be meh.  I expect their November 23rd game at Oregon State to be a play-in for the Holiday Bowl.  SoS: -9.25

That's a tough schedule.  However, it pales in comparison to Cal's SoS of -4.625.  Cal has lost to the #1, #3, #6, #13, #17, #22, #57, and #80 teams in the country.  Their only win has come against FCS Portland State.

23) Texas Tech (7-1, 4-1, +1)

24) Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2, 3-1, +1) - UCLA's loss against Oregon means that Arizona State is now alone on top of the Pac-12 South.  However, I expect that to be short lived; they still have games at Utah, vs. Oregon State, and at UCLA.  The Sun Devils get to avoid Oregon this year.  However, their schedule is pretty damn hard even without them. SoS: -8.142

25) LSU Tigers (7-2, 3-2, +1) - LSU struggled against FCS Furman in the first half, and led only 20-16 at the half, before they pulled away for a 48-16 win.  Zach Mettenberger was 16/24, with 328 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs (one of which was a pick-six).  The Tigers get next week off before their annual showdown with Alabama.  SoS: -16

My Top 25, Oct. 27

1) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +16) 
2) Florida State (7-0, 5-0, +15)
3) Stanford (7-1, 5-1, +15)
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13)
5) Miami (FL) (7-0, 3-0, +11)

6) Ohio State (8-0, 4-0, +11)
7) Clemson (7-1, 5-1, +9)
8) Northern Illinois (8-0, 4-0, +8)
9) Fresno State (7-0, 4-0, +7)
10) Baylor (7-0, 4-0, +7)

11) Missouri (7-1, 3-1, +6)
12) Auburn (7-1, 3-1, +6)
13) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +5)
14) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +5)
15) UCF (6-1, 3-0, +5)

16) Michigan (6-1, 2-1, +4)
17) Oregon State (6-2, 4-1, +3)
18) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2, +3)
19) Louisville (7-1, 3-1, +2)
20) Ball State (8-1, 5-0, +2)

21) Michigan State (7-1, 4-0, +2)
22) Washington (5-3, 2-3, +2)
23) Texas Tech (7-1, 4-1, +1)
24) Arizona State (5-2, 3-1, +1)
25) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +1)

Georgia (4-3, 3-2, 0)
Houston (6-1, 3-0, 0)
Oklahoma State (6-1, 3-1, 0)
Notre Dame (6-2, 0-0, 0)
Virginia Tech (6-2, 3-1, -1)
Minnesota (6-2, 2-2, -1)
Rice (6-2, 4-0, -1)
Arizona (5-2, 2-2, -1)
Brigham Young (6-2, 0-0, -1)
Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1, -2)
Buffalo (6-2, 4-0, -2)
Duke (6-2, 2-2, -3)
Penn State (4-3, 1-2, -4)
Texas (4-2, 3-0, -4)
Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2, -4)
Iowa (5-3, 2-2, -4)
Tennessee (4-4, 1-3, -5)
Nebraska (5-2, 2-1, -6)
Tulane (6-2, 4-0, -6)
Ohio (6-2, 3-1, -6)
Mississippi (5-3, 2-3, -6)
Florida  (4-3, 3-2, -7)
East Carolina (5-2, 3-1, -7)
Cincinnati (5-2, 2-1, -7)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2, 3-0, -7)
Maryland (5-3, 1-3, -8)
Rutgers (4-3, 1-2, -9)
Mississippi State (4-3, 1-2, -9)
Georgia Tech (5-3, 4-2, -9)
Toledo (5-3, 3-1, -9)
Utah (4-4, 1-4, -10)
Washington State (4-4, 2-3, -10)
Wake Forest (4-4, 2-3, -11)
Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1, -11)
North Carolina State (3-4, 0-4, -11)
Texas State (4-3, 1-2, -11)
North Texas (5-3, 3-1, -11)
Boise State (5-3, 3-1, -12)
UNLV (5-3, 3-1, -12)
USC (5-3, 2-2, -12)
Pittsburgh (4-3, 2-2, -13)
Troy (5-3. 3-1, -13)
San Jose State (4-3, 3-1, -13)
Marshall (4-3, 2-1, -14)
Illinois (3-4, 0-3, -14)
San Diego State (3-4, 2-1, -14)
Old Dominion (4-3, 0-0, -14)
TCU (3-4, 1-3, -14)
Navy (4-3, 0-0, -14)
Middle Tennessee (4-3, 2-1, -14)
Vanderbilt (4-4, 1-4, -15)
Syracuse (3-4, 1-2, -15)
Indiana (3-4, 1-2, -15)
South Alabama (3-3, 1-1, -15)
Northwestern (4-4, 0-4, -16)
Colorado State (4-4, 2-1, -16)
West Virginia (3-5, 1-4, -17)
Boston College (3-4, 1-3, -17)
Louisiana-Monroe (4-4, 2-1, -17)
Colorado (3-4, 0-4, -18)
North Carolina (2-5, 1-3, -18)
Kansas State (3-4, 1-3, -19)
Wyoming (4-4, 2-2, -20)
Western Kentucky (4-4, 1-3, -20)
Arkansas State (3-4, 1-1, -20)
Utah State (4-4, 3-1, -20)
South Florida (2-5, 2-1, -21)
SMU (3-4, 2-1, -21)
Kansas (2-5, 0-4, -22)
Army (3-5, 0-0, -22)
Arkansas (3-5, 0-4, -22)
Central Michigan (3-5. 2-2, -24)
UTSA (3-5, 2-2, -24)
Tulsa  (2-5, 1-2, -25)
UAB (2-5, 1-2, -25)
Nevada (3-5, 2-3, -26)
Memphis (1-5, 0-3, -27)
Louisiana Tech (3-5, 2-2, -27)
New Mexico (2-5, 0-3, -28)
Virginia (1-6, 0-4, -30)
Iowa State (1-6, 0-4, -30)
Kentucky (1-6, 0-4,  -30)
California (1-7, 0-5, -30)
Akron (2-7, 1-4, -31)
Florida Atlantic (2-6, 1-4, -31)
Temple (1-7, 0-4, -33)
Florida International (1-6, 1-2, -34)
Purdue (1-6, 0-3, -34)
Kent State (2-7, 1-4, -35)
UTEP (1-6, 0-4, -35)
Connecticut (0-7, 0-3, -35)
New Mexico State (1-7, 0-0, -35)
Idaho (1-7, 0-0, -39)
Western Michigan (1-7, 1-3, -39)
Southern Miss (0-7, 0-3, -41)
Massachusetts (1-7, 1-3, -41)
Air Force (1-7, 0-5, -41)
Hawaii (0-7, 0-5, -41)
Georgia State (0-8, 0-3, -43)
Eastern Michigan (1-8, 0-5, -43)
Miami (OH) (0-8, 0-4, -48)