Friday, November 18, 2011

Ducks vs. Tide

I was hoping that we could get some idea of which one-loss team would be more deserving of a rematch in national championship, but I failed. It turns out that the Ducks and the Tide have almost exactly the same schedules, based on rankings and standings. The difference that tips the scales to Alabama's favor is their single FCS opponent is 9-1 Georgia Southern, whereas Oregon's was 1-9 Missouri State.

Some other interesting comparisons:

Oregon plays one more conference opponent than Alabama. So which is a more valuable win: Oregon's over Pac-12 Colorado (2-9) or Alabama's over MAC Kent State (4-6)?

Who do you pick: #8 Stanford or #6 Arkansas? #18 USC or #21 Penn State? #1 LSU by 13 in Dallas, or #1 LSU by 3 in OT in Tuscaloosa? Personally, I think the Ducks have had a tougher road when comparing the three ranked teams they have played. But that's my bias.

I believe that the SEC is a tougher conference than the Pac-12. But Alabama has had it pretty easy, getting to avoid playing #13 Georgia and #14 South Carolina. (Along with 4-6 Kentucky) Oregon, meanwhile, avoids 5-5 UCLA and 6-4 Utah, but could end up playing either of them in the Pac-12 championship. Unfortunately.

Oregon:

@ #1 LSU (10-0)
vs. Nevada (6-3)
vs. Missouri State (1-9)
@ Arizona (2-8)
vs. California (6-4)
vs. Arizona State (6-4)
@ Colorado (2-9)
vs. Washington State (4-6)
@ Washington (6-4)
@ #8 Stanford (9-1)
vs. #18 USC (8-2)
vs. Oregon State (2-8)

Opponent Record 62-58
- Missouri State
61-49

Alabama

vs. Kent State (4-6)
@ #21 Penn State (8-2)
vs. North Texas (4-6)
vs. #6 Arkansas (9-1)
@ Florida (5-5)
vs. Vanderbilt (5-5)
@ Mississippi (2-8)
vs. Tennessee (4-6)
vs. #1 LSU (10-0)
@ Mississippi State (5-5)
vs. Georgia Southern (9-1)
@ Auburn (6-4)

Opponent Record 71-51
- Georgia Southern
62-50

Oregon Alabama

@ #1 LSU (10-0) vs. #1 LSU (10-0)
@ #8 Stanford (9-1) vs. #6 Arkansas (9-1)
vs. #18 USC (8-2) @ #21 Penn State (8-2)

vs. Missouri State (1-9) vs. Georgia Southern (9-1)
vs. Nevada (6-3) vs. North Texas (4-6)

vs. Arizona State (6-4) @ Auburn (6-4)
@ Washington (6-4) @ Florida (5-5)
vs. California (6-4) vs. Vanderbilt (5-5)

vs. Washington State (4-6) @ Mississippi State (5-5)
@ Arizona (2-8) vs. Tennessee (4-6)
vs. Oregon State (2-8) @ Mississippi (2-8)

@ Colorado (2-9) vs. Kent State (4-6)

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