Power Rankings - Nov. 03

With three of the top five teams and nine of the top 25 not playing this weekend, there wasn't a whole lot of movement in my Power Rankings. However, next week there are four games between Top 25 teams; two of them on Thursday!  So, for now most of our suppositions and predictions remain strictly academic.  By next week, though, it will be actual.

1) Florida State (8-0, 6-0, +21) - The Seminoles had their second prime time win over a top 10 opponent, this time 41-14 over Miami.  Even in what seemed like an "off" night, Jameis Winston was 21/29, with 325 yards, 1TD, and 2 INTs.  Nevertheless, I imagine that the computers will have FSU #1. They have passed the toughest part of their schedule, with their remaining opponents being Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho, and Florida. SoS: -14.5

2) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +16) - There's not a lot to report on the Ducks on their bye week.  Anyone who plays, coaches, or works for the University of Oregon football program will be focused on their game Thursday night against Stanford.  However, academically speaking, we can be worried for them about Oregon State's 31-14 loss to USC.  At the end of the season, the Ducks' argument for being ranked in the Top 2 may rest on their being able to point to at least four wins against Top 25 teams: UCLA, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon State.  Now that argument looks lost, especially with Oregon State and Washington still playing each other next week.  SoS: -19

3) Stanford (7-1, 5-1, +15) - In last year's overtime win over the Ducks, David Shaw basically laid down the blueprint for beating Oregon: Have your linebackers stay home and fill the gaps, don't allow big gains, force three-and-outs, control the ball behind your "ogre" O-Line.  I'm guessing that they'll follow a similar plan on Thursday, but I think there will be two big challenges: The losses of defensive ends Ben Gardner and Henry Anderson, and the fact that Oregon has forced 23 turnovers while committing 9, whereas Stanford has caused 10 and committed 11. SoS: -7.25

4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13) - Alabama's annual showdown with LSU has been circled in red all year and, along with Texas A&M, seemed liked the Tide's biggest challenges. However, they have another obstacle at the end of the year: 8-1 and number 12 ranked Auburn.  SoS: -18.625

5) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +12) - For the second consecutive week, Ohio State crushed an overmatched Big Ten foe, this time beating Purdue, 56-0.  The one thing that all the pollsters agree on is that the Buckeyes will be on the outside looking in should any of the teams above them remain undefeated. Sure, they have a good win against Wisconsin, but Michigan and Northwestern continue to keep losing.  And, by the end of the season, Ohio State may also have wins against No. 112 Purdue, No. 111 California, No. 94 Northwestern, No. 90 Indiana, and No. 86 Illinois. SoS: -19.667

6) Miami (FL) (7-1, 3-1, +10) - Miami was able to hang with Florida State for 30 minutes, and only trailed 21-14 at halftime.  However, the wheels came off in the second half.  Even though their offense was still able to gain yards, four consecutive Miami drives ended: interception, downs, interception, downs.  Unlike Clemson, Miami may get another crack at Florida State in the ACC championship, but they will probably have to win out against Virginia Tech, Duke, Virginia, and Pittsburgh.  SoS: -17.375

7) Clemson (8-1, 6-1, +10)

8) Northern Illinois (9-0, 5-0, +9) - SoS: -40.75

9) Fresno State (8-0, 5-0, +8) -  It seems as if, at this point in this season, either Northern Illinois or Fresno State will get an invitation to a BCS Bowl.  And Fresno, right now, has the upper hand in getting that invite.  However, NIU will have a chance to make their case, with future games against Ball State and Toledo.  SoS: -20

10) Baylor (7-0, 4-0, +7) - I got a Twitter question last week asking why I had Baylor so low, especially considering that I had them below a Miami team that had barely escaped North Carolina and Wake Forest.  Yes, I know that they have the best offense east of the Sierras, but their best win is still probably against Buffalo.  They are about to embark on a series of games against Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. If they get to 10-0, then I'll move them up.  But they're not getting to 10-0.  (If they get to 8-0, I will move them to 6th or 7th.) SoS: -22.571

11) Missouri (8-1, 4-1, +7)

12) Auburn (8-1, 4-1, +7)
13) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +6)
14) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +5)
15) UCF (6-1, 3-0, +5)

16) Michigan State (8-1, 5-0, +5) - In the latest AP poll, Michigan State is 18th, one of three Big Ten teams in the Top 25.  The Spartans beat Michigan 29-6, and now have the inside track on meeting Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Legends division, A.K.A. "mnimnn" is 0-2 in the Big Ten Championship so far. A Spartans-Buckeyes match-up would most likely make that 0-3. SoS: -23. (In other words, not quite as difficult as Fresno State's schedule.) 

17) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2, +4)
18) Louisville (7-1, 3-1, +2)
19) Ball State (8-1, 5-0, +2)

20) Oklahoma State (7-1, 4-1, +2)

21) Arizona State (6-2, 4-1, +2) - The Sun Devils continue to make statements in the Pac-12, this thumping Washington State 55-21, their third straight game scoring more than 50 points.  They are still in first place in the Pac-12 South, a game ahead of UCLA, USC, and Arizona. They have already beaten the Trojans, and their final two games are at UCLA and at home against Arizona. SoS: -9.5

22) Washington (5-3, 2-3, +2)

23) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +1) - The first ever game between LSU and Alabama was on November 18, 1895, which was a 12-6 win for LSU. The Tigers won their second game against Alabama, too, in 1902. And although they trail the Tide overall, with a record of 25-47-5, they have won 9 of the last 14. SoS: -18.889

24) Georgia (5-3, 4-2, +1) - I left the Florida-Georgia game at halftime, and with Georgia leading 23-3. This was about what I had expected from this game. But then Florida started a comeback, taking advantage of Georgia mistakes, including a safety and a missed field goal. Georgia was trying to put the game away with an 8-minute, 72-yard drive. But when it looked like the Gators had stopped them on a 3rd and 5, they committed a personal foul that would seal the win for the Bulldogs. With games left against Auburn and Kentucky, Georgia still has a slim chance at winning the SEC East. Florida does not though. Florida State's biggest win against the Gators was in 1988, 52-17. That record might be at risk this year.  SoS: -3

25) Houston (7-1, 4-0, +1) - SoS: -23.25

My Top 25

1) Florida State (8-0, 6-0, +21)

2) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +16) 
3) Stanford (7-1, 5-1, +15)
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13)
5) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +12)

6) Miami (FL) (7-1, 3-1, +10)
7) Clemson (8-1, 6-1, +10)
8) Northern Illinois (9-0, 5-0, +9)
9) Fresno State (8-0, 5-0, +8)
10) Baylor (7-0, 4-0, +7)

11) Missouri (8-1, 4-1, +7)
12) Auburn (8-1, 4-1, +7)
13) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +6)
14) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +5)
15) UCF (6-1, 3-0, +5)

16) Michigan State (8-1, 5-0, +5)
17) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2, +4)
18) Louisville (7-1, 3-1, +2)
19) Ball State (8-1, 5-0, +2)

20) Oklahoma State (7-1, 4-1, +2)

21) Arizona State (6-2, 4-1, +2)
22) Washington (5-3, 2-3, +2)
23) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +1)
24) Georgia (5-3, 4-2, +1)
25) Houston (7-1, 4-0, +1)

Notre Dame (7-2, 0-0, +1)

Minnesota (7-2, 3-2, 0)

Arizona (6-2, 3-2, 0)

Michigan (6-2, 2-2, -1)

Brigham Young (6-2, 0-0, -1)
Wisconsin (6-2, 4-1, -1)
Buffalo (6-2, 4-0, -2)

Oregon State (6-3, 4-2, -3)
Duke (6-2, 2-2, -3)
Penn State (5-3, 2-2, -3)
Texas (5-2, 4-0, -3)
Texas A&M (7-2, 3-2, -3)

Texas Tech (7-2, 4-2, -5)
Nebraska (6-2, 3-1, -5)
Ohio (6-2, 3-1, -6)
Mississippi (5-3, 2-3, -6)
East Carolina (6-2, 4-1, -6)
Cincinnati (6-2, 3-1, -6)
Louisiana-Lafayette (6-2, 3-0, -6)

Virginia Tech (6-3, 3-2, -7)

Rice (6-3, 4-1, -7)

Tennessee (4-5, 1-4, -8)
Maryland (5-3, 1-3, -8)
Rutgers (5-3, 2-2, -8)

Georgia Tech (6-3, 5-2, -8)
Toledo (6-3, 4-1, -8)

USC (6-3, 3-2, -9)

Iowa (5-4, 2-3, -10)
Utah (4-4, 1-4, -10)

Texas State (5-3, 1-2, -10)
North Texas (6-3, 4-1, -10)
Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1, -11)
Boise State (6-3, 4-1, -11)

Tulane (6-3, 4-1, -12)
San Jose State (5-3, 4-1, -12)

Florida  (4-4, 3-3, -13)
Mississippi State (4-4, 1-3, -13)
San Diego State (4-4, 3-1, -13)
Middle Tennessee (5-3, 3-1, -13)

Marshall (4-3, 2-1, -14)

Old Dominion (4-3, 0-0, -14)
Syracuse (4-4, 2-2, -14)

Washington State (4-5, 2-4, -15)

Vanderbilt (4-4, 1-4, -15)
West Virginia (4-5, 2-4, -16)
Boston College (4-4, 2-3, -16)
Louisiana-Monroe (5-4, 3-1, -16)

Wake Forest (4-5, 2-4, -17)

North Carolina State (3-5, 0-4, -17)
North Carolina (3-5, 2-3, -17)

UNLV (5-4, 3-2, -18)
Kansas State (4-4, 2-3, -18)

Pittsburgh (4-4, 2-3, -19)
Troy (5-4, 3-2, -19)
Western Kentucky (5-4, 2-3, -19)
Arkansas State (4-4, 2-1, -19)
Utah State (5-4, 4-1, -19)

Illinois (3-5, 0-4, -20)

TCU (3-5, 1-4, -20)
Navy (4-4, 0-0, -20)

Wyoming (4-4, 2-2, -20)

Indiana (3-5, 1-3, -21)

South Alabama (3-4, 1-2, -21)

Colorado (3-5, 0-5, -21)
SMU (3-4, 2-1, -21)

Northwestern (4-5, 0-5, -22)
Colorado State (4-5, 2-2, -22)
UTSA (4-5, 3-2, -23)

Central Michigan (3-5. 2-2, -24)

Arkansas (3-6, 0-5, -25)

South Florida (2-6, 2-2, -27)
Louisiana Tech (3-5, 2-2, -27)

Kansas (2-6, 0-5, -28)
Army (3-6, 0-0, -28)

Nevada (3-6, 2-4, -28)
Kentucky (2-6, 0-4,  -29)
Akron (3-7, 2-4, -30)
Florida Atlantic (3-6, 2-4, -30)

Tulsa  (2-6, 1-3, -31)

UAB (2-6, 1-3, -31)

Virginia (1-7, 0-5, -32)

Memphis (1-6, 0-4, -33)

New Mexico (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Connecticut (0-7, 0-3, -35)

Iowa State (1-7, 0-5, -36)

California (1-8, 0-6, -36)

Purdue (1-7, 0-4, -36)

Temple (1-8, 0-5, -39)
Western Michigan (1-7, 1-3, -39)

Florida International (1-7, 1-3, -40)
Air Force (2-7, 0-5, -40)

Kent State (2-8, 1-5, -41)

UTEP (1-7, 0-4, -41)

New Mexico State (1-8, 0-0, -41)

Southern Miss (0-7, 0-3, -41)

Massachusetts (1-8, 1-4, -43)

Idaho (1-8, 0-0, -45)
Hawaii (0-8, 0-6, -47)
Miami (OH) (0-8, 0-4, -48)

Georgia State (0-9, 0-4, -49)

Eastern Michigan (1-9, 0-6, -49)

Conference Power Rankings

(X1-X2) = Non-conference record
(Y1-Y2) = Record vs. FBS
(Z1 -Z2) = Record vs. BCS
(.abc) = (X1+Y1+Z1)/(X1+Y1+Z1+X2+Y2+Z2)

1) Pac-12 (29-6) (21-5) (6-5) .788
The Pac-12's 6-5 record against other BCS teams includes wins against the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten; but also 2 losses to Notre Dame.

2) SEC (36-8) (28-8) (7-7) .763
The Pac-12 and the SEC are 1-1 against each other, with Auburn (7-1, 3-1) defeating Washington State  (4-5, 2-4) 31-24, and Oregon (8-0, 5-0) defeating Tennessee (4-4, 1-3) 59-14.

3) Big Ten (37-10) (26-10) (9-8) .720
After a quick start, the Big Ten stalled out, going 3-7 against BCS opponents since week 3.

4) Big 12 (22-8)  (16-6) (3-4) .706


5) ACC (34-11) (23-11) (6-6) .692

American (19-20) (13-18) (4-11) .423

Power Rankings - Oct. 27

1) Oregon Ducks (8-0, 5-0, +16) - After watching both Florida State and Alabama absolutely destroy inferior opponents by scores of 49-17 and 45-10 on Saturday, I was prepared to admit that they were the two best teams in the country when the Ducks were tied 14-14 with UCLA at home.  Oregon had committed turnovers, had punts blocked, and missed another Maldonado field goal.  But then they came out and dominated the No. 12 team in the country in the second half en route to a 42-14 win.  So, I have no idea who should be 1 and 2.  The Ducks are here now - they'll be replaced by the winner of FSU-Miami next week, but could regain the place if they win their Thursday, Nov. 7 with Stanford.  They won't be able to get away with sloppy first half play in that game.  Strength of Schedule (SoS): -16.5

2) Florida State (7-0, 5-0, +15) - Strength of Schedule: -15.428

3) Stanford (7-1, 5-1, +15) - SoS: -5.5

4) Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0, +13) - I had hopes that Tennessee - after hanging with Georgia and upsetting South Carolina - would be able to challenge Alabama.  Nope.  Alabama won easily, 45-10, and now, after Missouri's loss, are alone on top of the SEC.  They have a bye next week, and still have challenges ahead against LSU and maybe Auburn, but it's pretty clear right now that Alabama is in a league of their own.  SoS: -15.875

4-4 Tennessee has a Strength of Schedule of -7.25.  They still have one-loss Missouri and one-loss Auburn on their schedule.  Still, 4-4 isn't bad considering they have the Schedule from Hell.  They also play Vanderbilt and Kentucky, and they can get bowl eligible with 2 more wins.

5) Miami Hurricanes (7-0, 3-0, +11) - The Seminoles may turn out to be the big winners of Miami's last minute win over Wake Forest, 24-21, as that raises the stakes of their game next week.  The Hurricanes have been livin' on a prayer for a while now; coming from behind to beat Georgia Tech, North Carolina (by 4) and Wake Forest.  Reason would dictate that they are due for a butt-kicking at the hands of Florida State next week.  But that's also what I said about Texas and Oklahoma, too.  So, basically, don't listen to anything I say. SoS: -19.857

6) Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0, 4-0, +11) - The Buckeyes knew that they were playing in primetime, and they delivered, kicking Penn State's butts 63-14.  This is the same Penn State team that beat Michigan in overtime.  According to the AP, this is Penn State's worst loss since losing to the Duquesne Athletic Club 64-5 on November 25, 1899.  Duquesne would win the Pittsburgh city championship that year, and featured left tackle Otman Franklin Wagonhurst, who would later coach Alabama, be elected the Chief Engineer for the Delaware & Eastern Railroad company, and is buried in Akron, Ohio.  Ohio State is at Purdue next weekend.  SoS: -15

7) Clemson (7-1, 5-1, +9)

8) Northern Illinois (8-0, 4-0, +8) - SoS: -32.25

9) Fresno State Bulldogs (7-0, 4-0, +7) - The Bulldogs needed overtime to beat San Diego State 35-28, their 4th win by 7 points or less.  They are at home against Nevada next weekend.  SoS: -24.142

10) Baylor Bears (7-0, 4-0, +7) - They beat Kansas 59-14 and are at home against Oklahoma next week.  Their two best wins are against Buffalo (MAC) and West Virginia (3-4).  I don't think they will 10 games this year.  SoS: -21.285  

There are eight FBS teams left who are undefeated.  Based on strength of schedule, the rankings should go: 1) Ohio State, 2) Florida State, 3) Alabama, 4) Oregon, 5) Miami, 6) Baylor, 7) Fresno State, 8) Northern Illinois.  The Top 4 teams are all very very close.  The Buckeyes are at a disadvantage with the humans because of the perceived weakness of the Big Ten, their lack of blow out wins (until last night), and their lack of ranked opponents.  If the Ducks win out, they should have the support of both humans (who like their flash) and the computers, who like the Pac-12 and will like 4 top 25 wins and 7 wins against .... let's say the top 54.  But that also means that they are the most likely the team to lose a game.  I don't think that the humans will allow Alabama to be left out of the top 2, but the computers will punish them if they finish the season with only 2 wins against the top 25.  

Everybody seems to agree that some combination of Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State are the top 4, with Stanford as the top 1-loss team.  Where I am the outlier is Texas A&M, who I have 40th, whereas they are #12 in the AP, and were #16 last week in the BCS, #18 with the computers, although it looks like this week the Massey computer has them 10th and Sagarin has them 9th.  Let me make my argument why they should be lower: 

#1: I hate Johnny Manziel.

#2: Fuck Johnny Manziel.

#3: They have no good wins.  Their wins are against: (32) Rice, FCS Sam Houston State, (90) SMU, (93) Arkansas, (46) Mississippi, and (53) Mississippi State.  So their best win is against a good C-USA team, whose only other loss this year has been to Houston.  

#4: They have two home losses, and have also played exactly 2 road games.  They are 2-0 on the road.  One of these was a 45-33 win a Arkansas.  Arkansas' only other home loss was against South Carolina.  They lost that game 52-7.  Texas A&M is currently 12th in the AP.  South Carolina is 14th.  

#5: The polls think that they have two "good losses" - 49-42 against undefeated #1 Alabama, and 45-41 against one-loss #8 Auburn.  First of all, a good loss is still a loss, and when you only get 12 data points, every loss counts.  Now, I like Auburn, and think they're real good.  But they beat my #57 Washington State at home 31-24, and that WSU team lost at home to Oregon State by 28 points.  (Auburn is 8th in the AP, Oregon State is unranked.)  They also beat my #53 Mississippi State 24-20, and that MSU team lost at Oklahoma State 21-3.  (OkSt. is 18th in the AP.)  And while I understand the problems with triangulation, I still think that I have an argument that Texas A&M should be considered slight favorites against Washington State or Mississippi State.

Their inflation is based on the fact that they scored 42 points and gained 628 yards against #1 Alabama, who has given up 36 points and 1,419 yards in their other 7 games combined. (5.1 ppg, 202, ypg) And yes, that's impressive. But they lost.  I don't think it is a good sign if your best game is a loss.  

#6: Turnovers: The two team stats that are most predictive of success are yards per play and turnovers.  The Aggies have forced 15 turnovers and have committed 14.  

#7: Their defense is atrocious.  Of 125 FBS teams, Texas A&M is ranked 110th in terms of yards allowed per game.  

I have the Aggies penciled in at 8-4.  They'll play in the Capital One or Outback Bowls, against Nebraska or Michigan State.  And they'll win.   

11) Missouri (7-1, 3-1, +6)

12) Auburn Tigers (7-1, 3-1, +6) - The AP poll just came out, and OMG guys!  The AP has Auburn 8th, followed by Clemson (9), Missouri (10) and LSU (11).  That's right: TIGERS, TIGERS, TIGERS, TIGERS. Oh my! Next week: at Arkansas.  SoS: -15.875

13) UCLA Bruins (5-2, 2-2, +5) - The Bruins dropped from 12th to 17th in the AP poll, although I only dropped them two spots after losing at Oregon, 42-14.  UCLA was able to run against the Ducks, picking up 219 yards on 4.2 yards per carry, but their passing game was taken out.  Brett Hundley was 13/19, for 64 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs.  That's season lows for him in attempts, completions, yards, and TDs, and a season high in INTs.  After back-to-back road losses to Stanford and Oregon, UCLA gets a reprieve next week when they host Colorado. SoS: -10.857.  Nebraska's loss to Minnesota robs UCLA of their only win over another top 25 team.  

14) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +5)
15) UCF (6-1, 3-0, +5)

16) Michigan (6-1, 2-1, +4)
17) Oregon State (6-2, 4-1, +3)
18) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2, +3)

19) Louisville Cardinals (7-1, 3-1, +2) - My wife's uncle went to graduate school in racetrack management at Louisville, and so, when she was little, there was a lot of Louisville gear around their house.  One day, her dad was wearing a Louisville shirt, and he asked his daughter (who was, like, three) what animal was on his shirt.  After careful consideration, she answered him, "Dad, that is an angry parrot."  The Angry Parrots are at Connecticut next week.  SoS: -22

20) Ball State (8-1, 5-0, +2)

21) Michigan State (7-1, 4-0, +2)

22) Washington Huskies (5-3, 2-3, +2) - The Huskies were able to halt their 3-game losing streak by beating hapless Cal 41-17.  The rest of the season is: bye, vs. Colorado, at UCLA, at Oregon State, vs. Washington State.  A 7-5 season would be disappointing; 9-3 would be exciting.  8-4 would be meh.  I expect their November 23rd game at Oregon State to be a play-in for the Holiday Bowl.  SoS: -9.25

That's a tough schedule.  However, it pales in comparison to Cal's SoS of -4.625.  Cal has lost to the #1, #3, #6, #13, #17, #22, #57, and #80 teams in the country.  Their only win has come against FCS Portland State.

23) Texas Tech (7-1, 4-1, +1)

24) Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2, 3-1, +1) - UCLA's loss against Oregon means that Arizona State is now alone on top of the Pac-12 South.  However, I expect that to be short lived; they still have games at Utah, vs. Oregon State, and at UCLA.  The Sun Devils get to avoid Oregon this year.  However, their schedule is pretty damn hard even without them. SoS: -8.142

25) LSU Tigers (7-2, 3-2, +1) - LSU struggled against FCS Furman in the first half, and led only 20-16 at the half, before they pulled away for a 48-16 win.  Zach Mettenberger was 16/24, with 328 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs (one of which was a pick-six).  The Tigers get next week off before their annual showdown with Alabama.  SoS: -16

My Top 25, Oct. 27

1) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +16) 
2) Florida State (7-0, 5-0, +15)
3) Stanford (7-1, 5-1, +15)
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13)
5) Miami (FL) (7-0, 3-0, +11)

6) Ohio State (8-0, 4-0, +11)
7) Clemson (7-1, 5-1, +9)
8) Northern Illinois (8-0, 4-0, +8)
9) Fresno State (7-0, 4-0, +7)
10) Baylor (7-0, 4-0, +7)

11) Missouri (7-1, 3-1, +6)
12) Auburn (7-1, 3-1, +6)
13) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +5)
14) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +5)
15) UCF (6-1, 3-0, +5)

16) Michigan (6-1, 2-1, +4)
17) Oregon State (6-2, 4-1, +3)
18) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2, +3)
19) Louisville (7-1, 3-1, +2)
20) Ball State (8-1, 5-0, +2)

21) Michigan State (7-1, 4-0, +2)
22) Washington (5-3, 2-3, +2)
23) Texas Tech (7-1, 4-1, +1)
24) Arizona State (5-2, 3-1, +1)
25) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +1)

Georgia (4-3, 3-2, 0)
Houston (6-1, 3-0, 0)
Oklahoma State (6-1, 3-1, 0)
Notre Dame (6-2, 0-0, 0)
Virginia Tech (6-2, 3-1, -1)
Minnesota (6-2, 2-2, -1)
Rice (6-2, 4-0, -1)
Arizona (5-2, 2-2, -1)
Brigham Young (6-2, 0-0, -1)
Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1, -2)
Buffalo (6-2, 4-0, -2)
Duke (6-2, 2-2, -3)
Penn State (4-3, 1-2, -4)
Texas (4-2, 3-0, -4)
Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2, -4)
Iowa (5-3, 2-2, -4)
Tennessee (4-4, 1-3, -5)
Nebraska (5-2, 2-1, -6)
Tulane (6-2, 4-0, -6)
Ohio (6-2, 3-1, -6)
Mississippi (5-3, 2-3, -6)
Florida  (4-3, 3-2, -7)
East Carolina (5-2, 3-1, -7)
Cincinnati (5-2, 2-1, -7)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2, 3-0, -7)
Maryland (5-3, 1-3, -8)
Rutgers (4-3, 1-2, -9)
Mississippi State (4-3, 1-2, -9)
Georgia Tech (5-3, 4-2, -9)
Toledo (5-3, 3-1, -9)
Utah (4-4, 1-4, -10)
Washington State (4-4, 2-3, -10)
Wake Forest (4-4, 2-3, -11)
Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1, -11)
North Carolina State (3-4, 0-4, -11)
Texas State (4-3, 1-2, -11)
North Texas (5-3, 3-1, -11)
Boise State (5-3, 3-1, -12)
UNLV (5-3, 3-1, -12)
USC (5-3, 2-2, -12)
Pittsburgh (4-3, 2-2, -13)
Troy (5-3. 3-1, -13)
San Jose State (4-3, 3-1, -13)
Marshall (4-3, 2-1, -14)
Illinois (3-4, 0-3, -14)
San Diego State (3-4, 2-1, -14)
Old Dominion (4-3, 0-0, -14)
TCU (3-4, 1-3, -14)
Navy (4-3, 0-0, -14)
Middle Tennessee (4-3, 2-1, -14)
Vanderbilt (4-4, 1-4, -15)
Syracuse (3-4, 1-2, -15)
Indiana (3-4, 1-2, -15)
South Alabama (3-3, 1-1, -15)
Northwestern (4-4, 0-4, -16)
Colorado State (4-4, 2-1, -16)
West Virginia (3-5, 1-4, -17)
Boston College (3-4, 1-3, -17)
Louisiana-Monroe (4-4, 2-1, -17)
Colorado (3-4, 0-4, -18)
North Carolina (2-5, 1-3, -18)
Kansas State (3-4, 1-3, -19)
Wyoming (4-4, 2-2, -20)
Western Kentucky (4-4, 1-3, -20)
Arkansas State (3-4, 1-1, -20)
Utah State (4-4, 3-1, -20)
South Florida (2-5, 2-1, -21)
SMU (3-4, 2-1, -21)
Kansas (2-5, 0-4, -22)
Army (3-5, 0-0, -22)
Arkansas (3-5, 0-4, -22)
Central Michigan (3-5. 2-2, -24)
UTSA (3-5, 2-2, -24)
Tulsa  (2-5, 1-2, -25)
UAB (2-5, 1-2, -25)
Nevada (3-5, 2-3, -26)
Memphis (1-5, 0-3, -27)
Louisiana Tech (3-5, 2-2, -27)
New Mexico (2-5, 0-3, -28)
Virginia (1-6, 0-4, -30)
Iowa State (1-6, 0-4, -30)
Kentucky (1-6, 0-4,  -30)
California (1-7, 0-5, -30)
Akron (2-7, 1-4, -31)
Florida Atlantic (2-6, 1-4, -31)
Temple (1-7, 0-4, -33)
Florida International (1-6, 1-2, -34)
Purdue (1-6, 0-3, -34)
Kent State (2-7, 1-4, -35)
UTEP (1-6, 0-4, -35)
Connecticut (0-7, 0-3, -35)
New Mexico State (1-7, 0-0, -35)
Idaho (1-7, 0-0, -39)
Western Michigan (1-7, 1-3, -39)
Southern Miss (0-7, 0-3, -41)
Massachusetts (1-7, 1-3, -41)
Air Force (1-7, 0-5, -41)
Hawaii (0-7, 0-5, -41)
Georgia State (0-8, 0-3, -43)
Eastern Michigan (1-8, 0-5, -43)
Miami (OH) (0-8, 0-4, -48)

BCS Computer Rankings

The first set of BCS rankings came out today.  According to the computers, which make up 1/3 of the BCS Rankings, the top 25 should be as follows:

1) Florida State
2) Alabama
3) Missouri
4) Oregon
5) Ohio State
6) Stanford
7) Auburn
8) Virginia Tech
9) Clemson
10) Miami (FL)
11) Texas Tech
12) Baylor
13) Northern Illinois
14) UCLA
15) LSU
16) Oklahoma
17) Fresno State
18) Texas A&M
19) UCF
20) Oregon State
21) Michigan
22) South Carolina

The next three teams round out the BCS rankings, but received 0 computer points:

23) Oklahoma State
24) Louisville
25) Nebraska

I love seeing the discrepancies between the humans and the computers.  For the most part, my rankings aren't too far from the computers.  I have Oregon and Missouri swapped, but should probably put the Tigers ahead of the Ducks based on Strength of Schedule.  Two big differences are Auburn and LSU.  The computers like them more than I do, probably because they're weighing wins against Texas A&M a lot more than I am.  The computers also think that I'm too high on Miami, probably because I keep giving them too much credit for their win over Florida.  However, I'm glad that we both think that Oregon State deserves to be in the Top 25.

Meanwhile, the coaches continue to be idiots.  They have Oklahoma at 12 and Oklahoma State at 13, even though Oklahoma is exactly 1-1 against teams with winning records, and Oklahoma State has quality wins over 3-3 Mississippi State, UTSA, and, um, Lamar.  They have Louisville at 16 and UCF at 25, despite UCF having wins over Penn State and Louisville.  That is almost as awesome as 5-2 Texas A&M at #15 and 6-1 Auburn at #17.

The coaches are idiots.

Power Rankings - Oct. 20

1) Florida State (6-0, 4-0, +14) - Wow.  If you had told me that Florida State was going to beat Clemson, I would have listened.  I thought the two teams were evenly matched, but that turned out to be untrue.  The Seminoles beat the Tigers 51-14, dominating the AP No. 3 team from start to finish, and now, I believe, have positioned themselves for a run at the title.  QB Jameis Winston went 22/34, 444 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, and the defense forced 4 Clemson turnovers that led to 14 Florida State points.  Also, Lee Corso dressed in red-face and got body slammed by Bill Murray.  Football!

Dave Zirin ‏@EdgeofSports19h

When you win wars, you get to be on the $20 dollar bill. When you lose, Lee Corso dresses up like you and dances. http://deadspin.com/imo-i-dont-see-a-problem-with-this-but-we-all-no-the-li-1448349414 …

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The Seminoles now have a path to the National Championship.  They get Miami at home on Nov. 02, and are at Florida on Nov. 30.  They should be heavy favorites in both those games.  They would get a 13th game against probably Virginia Tech or Miami in the ACC Championship.  It would be hard to deny a 13-0 Florida State a spot in the title game.  They are home against North Carolina State next week. 

Strength of Schedule: -10.167

2) Alabama (7-0, 4-0, +12) - On a day when the entire SEC got turned up - LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina all lost to unranked opponents - Alabama stayed true to form, beating Arkansas 52-0.  Although it hasn't been against the toughest schedule, the Tide has now allowed only 16 points over the last 20 quarters. Against Arkansas, they allowed 256 yards on 4.0 yards per play, and forced 3 turnovers.  They host Tennessee next weekend, and it will be interesting to see what they can accomplish against a team that just beat South Carolina and almost beat Georgia.  It may be that Alabama is a lot better than the rest of the SEC.  

Strength of Schedule: -15.286

3) Oregon (7-0, 4-0, +12) - The Ducks creamed Washington State 62-38, a game where they led at one point 62-24, then pulled their starters and had their JV squad give up two fourth quarter touchdowns.  They wore garish neon-pink helmets to honor breast cancer awareness month, and I think I agree with Jessica Luther when she writes:

Nike could just donate $1 million, Oregon football could donate another and then release a joint statement. But that wouldn’t lend them nearly as much publicity as these uniforms. Instead, Nike is putting money into uniforms and Oregon is getting a lot of coverage of a game that almost no one will watch. Using “women’s cancers” as a means of spotlighting your brand – I’ll never not find that weird.

Washington State continues to improve, but holy crap: On Saturday, their QB Connor Halliday threw eighty-nine passes for 557 yards, 4 TDs and 4 INTs.  They ran the ball 12 times, for a grand total of 2 yards.  The Ducks now get to the meat of their schedule, playing UCLA next week, then getting a bye week before a Thursday night game at Stanford.  

Strength of Schedule: -16.571  The Ducks have played an easier schedule than Alabama and a much easier schedule than Florida State up to this point, and should be behind both of them in the first BCS rankings tonight.  However, that will change, with all of Oregon's remaining opponents being in the Top 40.  The Ducks just have to win the day.  

4) Missouri (7-0, 3-0, +12) - The Tigers just keep on winning, pulling away from Florida in the 4th quarter to come out on top, 36-17.  With all the carnage in the SEC East, every team other than Missouri now has at least two conference losses.  That means that Missouri needs to win three out of five of the following to win the division: vs. South Carolina, vs. Tennessee, at Kentucky, at Mississippi, vs. Texas A&M. (And one of those wins must be against South Carolina.)

Meanwhile, Florida continues to suck.  Against Missouri, they had 151 total yards, including 59 rushing yards on 1.9 yards per rush.  The Missouri defense, you know, is 49th in the nation, giving up an average of 379 yards per game.  

Strength of Schedule: -13.857

5) Stanford (6-1, 4-1, +12) - Stanford's 24-10 win over UCLA re-established their Nov. 7 showdown with Oregon as the Pac-12 game of the year.  The Cardinal's defense shut down UCLA, allowing only 74 rushing yards on 2.7 yards per run.  However, questions still remain. Stanford led at halftime 3-0, and the game was tied 3-3 until 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.  They're not an explosive team offensively, which is fine, I know I'm looking at this through green and yellow (and pink?) tinted glasses, but then it makes it hard for them to play from behind, as they had to do against Utah.  It could be an interesting game next week, when they visit Corvallis and the Beavers.

Strength of Schedule: -6.  Wow. That is an insanely difficult schedule. It includes 5-2 Arizona State, 5-1 UCLA, 4-3 Washington, and 4-3 Utah.  And they still get Oregon State, Oregon, USC, and Notre Dame.  In fact, it is possible that Stanford could end up playing 9 or 10 bowl eligible teams this season.  

6) Miami (FL) (6-0, 2-0, +10) - Miami had to struggle to beat North Carolina 27-23, and, with their "signature" win against Florida looking less and less impressive, I am beginning to cool on the Hurricanes.  Having said that, 10-2 or 11-1 is still a possibility for them.  Back-to-back games against Florida State and Virginia Tech may be their undoing, though.  They host Wake Forest next week.

Strength of Schedule: -19.5

7) Ohio State (7-0, 3-0, +10) - Strength of Schedule: -14.  That's a lot higher than I expected.  The Buckeyes won in unconvincing manner against Iowa, 34-24, and may be punished by voters who use the eyeball test to cast their votes.  They keep winning, but the Northwestern team they beat by 10 just lost to Minnesota by 3, and the Cal team they beat by 28 just lost to Oregon State by 32 (and to Oregon by 39.) They should get a boost next week if they beat Penn State, and then another at the end with their game at Michigan and then a probable Big Ten Championship game against Michigan State or Nebraska.  

8) Clemson (6-1, 4-1, +8) - Poor Clemson.  All the hype - ACC Game of the Year! Hesiman Showdown! Top 5 Showdown! College Gameday plus ABC Primetime Game with Kirk and Brent!  Only to get blown out at home by your division rival 51-14.  Clemson got shut down by FSU's superior defense, and couldn't contain QB Jameis Winston.  So what's next for the Tigers?  They have another tough game next week at Maryland.  And a trip to the ACC championship seems unlikely, as they will need FSU to lose twice.  But they still have their season finale against South Carolina.  And the resume to get a BCS at-large invite; maybe even the Orange Bowl, if the Seminoles are in the Championship.

Strength of Schedule: -10.428.  

9) Texas Tech (7-0, 4-0, +7) - Texas Tech won at West Virginia 37-27.  They are at Oklahoma next week.

Strength of Schedule: -20.428.  Yup.  Computers gonna hate on the Big 12 this year.

10) Northern Illinois (7-0, 3-0, +7) - The big winners of Louisville's Friday night loss to UCF are Northern Illinois and Fresno State, who can now earn an automatic BCS berth by finishing in the Top 16 and ahead of the American Conference champion.  Right now, the human voters seem to prefer Fresno State over the Huskies, but that may change.  NIU beat Central Michigan 38-17, and plays Eastern Michigan next week.  

Strength of Schedule: -27.714.  Yup.  That includes wins against No. 115 Idaho, No. 116 Purdue, No. 112 Kent State, and No. 106 Akron.  MACtion!

11) UCLA (5-1, 2-1, +6) - UCLA QB Brett Hudley was "held" to a performance of 24/39, 192 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs by the stout Stanford defense, and the Bruins scored 0 first half points en route to a 24-10 loss.  UCLA must now run the same Stanford-Oregon gauntlet that may have ruined Washington's season.  They are also in a fight with Arizona State for 1st place in the Pac-12 South.  Strength of Schedule: -10.428

12) Fresno State (6-0, 3-0, +6) - Fresno State beat UNLV 38-14, and play at San Diego State next week.  Their Strength of Schedule is considerably stronger than Northern Illinois', with valuable wins against Rutgers and Boise State.  However, it is also dragged down by wins over Idaho, Hawaii, and FCS Cal Poly. Strength of Schedule: -21

13) Baylor (6-0, 3-0, +6) - On the one hand, Baylor beat Iowa State - a team that lost to Texas by 1 point and to Texas Tech by 7 - by a score 71-7.  On the other hand, their FBS opponents so far have a combined record of 14-20, and only one, Buffalo, is above .500.  They play Kansas (2-4) next week. Strength of Schedule: -18.667

14) Virginia Tech (6-1, 3-0, +5) - Strength of Schedule: -11.571

15) Auburn (6-1, 3-1, +5) - The Tigers beat Johnny Richpants and Texas A&M 45-41, and are now in second place in the SEC West, in control of their destiny. (A destiny which includes games against Georgia and Alabama.)  Some folks are calling this game a "stunner," but it really wasn't.  Remember, Texas A&M has an historically bad defense that gave up 615 yards to Auburn (avg. 494), 509 yards to Rice (avg: 402), 568 yards to Alabama (avg: 460), and 483 yards to Arkansas (avg: 356).  So, basically, if you play the Aggies, you're going to gain 100 yards more than your season average.  

Auburn is at home against Florida Atlantic next week.

Strength of Schedule: -12.571

16) Michigan (6-1, 2-1, +4) - Strength of Schedule: -14.571

17) Oregon State (6-1, 4-0, +4) - I love the Beavers, and if they hadn't lost their season opener 46-49 to Eastern Washington, I would probably have them in my Top 7 today.  They beat California 49-17 behind a 35/45, 481 yard, 4 TD, 0 INT performance from Sean Mannion, and a 13 catch, 232 yard day from Brandin Cooks.  However, the Beavers have ridden high by beating up on the lower half of the Pac-12 (at Utah, vs Colorado, at Washington State, at California.)  They finish the season with: vs Stanford, vs USC, at Arizona State, vs Washington, at Oregon.  Their offensive offensive numbers should come down to Earth a bit.  

Strength of Schedule: -19.857

18) UCF (5-1, 2-0, +4)
19) Louisville (6-1, 2-1, +1)
20) Ball State (7-1, 4-0, +1)

21) Michigan State (6-1, 3-0, +1)

22) Arizona State (5-2, 3-1, +1) - Strength of Schedule: -8.142

23) Washington (4-3, 1-3, +1) - Strength of Schedule: -4.857

24) Georgia (4-3, 3-2, 0) -  That's what you get, Georgia.  Going 4-3 against probably the toughest schedule in the country - one that includes 4 Top 25 teams - still earns you a spot in the Top 25.  The Bulldogs have been bounced from the AP, but I bet that they're in the BCS Top 25 tonight.  But for how long?  In my opinion, this is their bottom point.  They'll finish 4-1, get to 8 wins, and have a nice New Year's Day game against Northwestern or Michigan State.  

Strength of Schedule: -1.142

25) LSU (6-2, 3-2, 0) Strength of Schedule: -10.125