Sunday, November 3, 2013

Power Rankings - Nov. 03

With three of the top five teams and nine of the top 25 not playing this weekend, there wasn't a whole lot of movement in my Power Rankings. However, next week there are four games between Top 25 teams; two of them on Thursday!  So, for now most of our suppositions and predictions remain strictly academic.  By next week, though, it will be actual.

1) Florida State (8-0, 6-0, +21) - The Seminoles had their second prime time win over a top 10 opponent, this time 41-14 over Miami.  Even in what seemed like an "off" night, Jameis Winston was 21/29, with 325 yards, 1TD, and 2 INTs.  Nevertheless, I imagine that the computers will have FSU #1. They have passed the toughest part of their schedule, with their remaining opponents being Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho, and Florida. SoS: -14.5

2) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +16) - There's not a lot to report on the Ducks on their bye week.  Anyone who plays, coaches, or works for the University of Oregon football program will be focused on their game Thursday night against Stanford.  However, academically speaking, we can be worried for them about Oregon State's 31-14 loss to USC.  At the end of the season, the Ducks' argument for being ranked in the Top 2 may rest on their being able to point to at least four wins against Top 25 teams: UCLA, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon State.  Now that argument looks lost, especially with Oregon State and Washington still playing each other next week.  SoS: -19

3) Stanford (7-1, 5-1, +15) - In last year's overtime win over the Ducks, David Shaw basically laid down the blueprint for beating Oregon: Have your linebackers stay home and fill the gaps, don't allow big gains, force three-and-outs, control the ball behind your "ogre" O-Line.  I'm guessing that they'll follow a similar plan on Thursday, but I think there will be two big challenges: The losses of defensive ends Ben Gardner and Henry Anderson, and the fact that Oregon has forced 23 turnovers while committing 9, whereas Stanford has caused 10 and committed 11. SoS: -7.25

4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13) - Alabama's annual showdown with LSU has been circled in red all year and, along with Texas A&M, seemed liked the Tide's biggest challenges. However, they have another obstacle at the end of the year: 8-1 and number 12 ranked Auburn.  SoS: -18.625

5) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +12) - For the second consecutive week, Ohio State crushed an overmatched Big Ten foe, this time beating Purdue, 56-0.  The one thing that all the pollsters agree on is that the Buckeyes will be on the outside looking in should any of the teams above them remain undefeated. Sure, they have a good win against Wisconsin, but Michigan and Northwestern continue to keep losing.  And, by the end of the season, Ohio State may also have wins against No. 112 Purdue, No. 111 California, No. 94 Northwestern, No. 90 Indiana, and No. 86 Illinois. SoS: -19.667

6) Miami (FL) (7-1, 3-1, +10) - Miami was able to hang with Florida State for 30 minutes, and only trailed 21-14 at halftime.  However, the wheels came off in the second half.  Even though their offense was still able to gain yards, four consecutive Miami drives ended: interception, downs, interception, downs.  Unlike Clemson, Miami may get another crack at Florida State in the ACC championship, but they will probably have to win out against Virginia Tech, Duke, Virginia, and Pittsburgh.  SoS: -17.375

7) Clemson (8-1, 6-1, +10)

8) Northern Illinois (9-0, 5-0, +9) - SoS: -40.75

9) Fresno State (8-0, 5-0, +8) -  It seems as if, at this point in this season, either Northern Illinois or Fresno State will get an invitation to a BCS Bowl.  And Fresno, right now, has the upper hand in getting that invite.  However, NIU will have a chance to make their case, with future games against Ball State and Toledo.  SoS: -20

10) Baylor (7-0, 4-0, +7) - I got a Twitter question last week asking why I had Baylor so low, especially considering that I had them below a Miami team that had barely escaped North Carolina and Wake Forest.  Yes, I know that they have the best offense east of the Sierras, but their best win is still probably against Buffalo.  They are about to embark on a series of games against Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. If they get to 10-0, then I'll move them up.  But they're not getting to 10-0.  (If they get to 8-0, I will move them to 6th or 7th.) SoS: -22.571

11) Missouri (8-1, 4-1, +7)
12) Auburn (8-1, 4-1, +7)
13) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +6)
14) Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1, +5)
15) UCF (6-1, 3-0, +5)

16) Michigan State (8-1, 5-0, +5) - In the latest AP poll, Michigan State is 18th, one of three Big Ten teams in the Top 25.  The Spartans beat Michigan 29-6, and now have the inside track on meeting Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Legends division, A.K.A. "mnimnn" is 0-2 in the Big Ten Championship so far. A Spartans-Buckeyes match-up would most likely make that 0-3. SoS: -23. (In other words, not quite as difficult as Fresno State's schedule.) 

17) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2, +4)
18) Louisville (7-1, 3-1, +2)
19) Ball State (8-1, 5-0, +2)
20) Oklahoma State (7-1, 4-1, +2)

21) Arizona State (6-2, 4-1, +2) - The Sun Devils continue to make statements in the Pac-12, this thumping Washington State 55-21, their third straight game scoring more than 50 points.  They are still in first place in the Pac-12 South, a game ahead of UCLA, USC, and Arizona. They have already beaten the Trojans, and their final two games are at UCLA and at home against Arizona. SoS: -9.5

22) Washington (5-3, 2-3, +2)

23) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +1) - The first ever game between LSU and Alabama was on November 18, 1895, which was a 12-6 win for LSU. The Tigers won their second game against Alabama, too, in 1902. And although they trail the Tide overall, with a record of 25-47-5, they have won 9 of the last 14. SoS: -18.889

24) Georgia (5-3, 4-2, +1) - I left the Florida-Georgia game at halftime, and with Georgia leading 23-3. This was about what I had expected from this game. But then Florida started a comeback, taking advantage of Georgia mistakes, including a safety and a missed field goal. Georgia was trying to put the game away with an 8-minute, 72-yard drive. But when it looked like the Gators had stopped them on a 3rd and 5, they committed a personal foul that would seal the win for the Bulldogs. With games left against Auburn and Kentucky, Georgia still has a slim chance at winning the SEC East. Florida does not though. Florida State's biggest win against the Gators was in 1988, 52-17. That record might be at risk this year.  SoS: -3

25) Houston (7-1, 4-0, +1) - SoS: -23.25

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