Auburn or Ohio State?

It's still early in the evening, but Auburn's amazing win over Alabama already has Twitter abuzz about whether or not 1-loss Auburn ought to jump 12-0 Ohio State in the BCS Rankings.  I actually have Stanford now #2, assuming that they beat Notre Dame tonight.  But I might also be OK with Auburn jumping the Buckeyes.  So, let's compare Auburn and OSU:

Ohio State: (12-0, 8-0, +15)
Strength of Schedule: -26.75

W vs. (36) Buffalo (8-4, 6-2, -12) 40-20
W vs. (52) San Diego State (7-4, 6-1, -11) 42-7
W @ (123) California (1-11, 0-9, -49) 52-34
W vs. (FCS) Florida A&M (-72) 76-0
W vs. (21) Wisconsin (9-3, 6-2, -3) 31-24
W @ (79) Northwestern (5-7, 1-7, -30) 40-30
W vs. (42) Iowa (8-4, 5-3, -7) 34-24
W vs. (41) Penn State (7-4, 4-3, -6) 63-14
W @ (129) Purdue (1-11, 0-8, -60) 56-0
W @ (94) Illinois (4-8, 1-7, -32) 60-35
W vs. (96) Indiana (5-7, 3-5, -26) 42-14
W @ (50) Michigan (7-5, 3-5, -13) 42-41

Auburn: (11-1, 7-1, +16)
Strength of Schedule: -18.333

W vs. (56) Washington State (6-6, 4-5, -18) 31-24
W vs. (60) Arkansas State (7-5, 5-2, -22) 38-9
W vs. (70) Mississippi State (6-6, 3-5, -18) 24-20
L @ (24) LSU (9-3, 5-3, +2) 21-35
W vs. (37) Mississippi (7-5, 3-5, -14) 30-22
W vs. (FCS) Western Carolina (-72) 62-3
W @ (39) Texas A&M (7-3, 3-3, -8) 45-41
W vs. (100) Florida Atlantic (6-6, 4-4, -27) 45-10
W @ (110) Arkansas (3-9, 0-8, -42) 35-17
W @ (61) Tennessee (4-7, 1-6, -17) 55-23
W vs. (25) Georgia (8-4, 5-3, +1) 43-38
W vs. (2) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +15) 34-28

Things will continue to change.  My rule of thumb is that one loss is worth 7 SoS points, and Auburn's SoS is more than 8 points more difficult than Ohio State's.  The Buckeyes may be seriously punished by Wisconsin's loss today, which should mean that OSU ends the season with 0  wins against the Top 25, including 0 games higher than Auburn's one loss.  Furthermore, Auburn is 2-1 vs Top 25 and 4-1 vs Top 40, whereas Ohio State is 1-0 vs Top 25, 2-0 vs Top 40.  And, Ohio State's second best win is still against Buffalo, whereas Auburn's #1 win against Alabama, #2 vs. Georgia, #3 vs. Mississippi, and #4 vs. Texas A&M.  (Auburn is also 8-1 versus bowl eligible teams, compared to OSU's 6-0.) Basically, the fact that Auburn's fourth best win is against Texas A&M is why I would vote them ahead of the Buckeyes in the BCS.

Postscript: Let's talk about Stanford, who figures to be in my #2 spot tomorrow morning.

Stanford (10-2, 7-2, +17)
Strength of Schedule: -11.833

W vs. (103) San Jose State (6-6, 5-3, -25) 34-13
W @ (107) Army (3-7, 0-0, -34) 34-20
W vs. (14) Arizona State (9-2, 7-1, +8) 42-28
W @ (56) Washington State (6-6, 4-5, -18) 55-17
W vs. (23) Washington (8-4, 5-4, +2) 31-28
L @ (75) Utah (5-7, 2-7, -21) 21-27
W vs. (17) UCLA (8-3, 5-3, +5) 24-10
W @ (55) Oregon State (6-6, 4-5, -15) 20-12
W vs. (7) Oregon (10-2, 7-2, +11) 26-20
L @ (27) USC (9-3, 6-2, -1) 17-20
W vs. (123) California (1-11, 0-9, -49) 63-13
W vs. (33) Notre Dame (8-4, 0-0, -5) 27-20

Basically, any argument that Auburn ought to jump ahead of Ohio State also applies to the argument that Stanford ought to jump Auburn, especially if they all win their conferences.  Stanford is 4-0 against the top 25, 5-1 against the top 40, has 0 wins against the FCS, and convincingly beat Washington State when Auburn barely beat them.  Yes, they have that terrible road loss to #75 Utah.  But, consider this: Auburn's top five wins are: 2, 25, 37, 39, 56.  Stanford's are: 7, 14, 17, 23, 33.  (Ohio State's are: 21, 36, 41, 42, 56.)