BCS National Championship - Alabama (13-0) vs. Notre Dame (12-0) - OK, these are not what I actually think will happen this season. If you put a gun to my head - and please don't do that - I would say the NCG will be Oregon vs. Alabama. But what do I know? Instead, I want to start from one simple premise, and then follow out what the bowl implications might be. This week: 10-1 Oregon State beats 11-0 Oregon in the Civil War. The Beavers jump out to a quick 28-10 lead. The Ducks put on a furious comeback, and tie it 31-31, forcing overtime. Oregon State hits a field goal, and then, on the next possession, De'Anthony Thomas and Marcus Mariota screw up a simple hand off, turning the ball over, and the Beavers win, 34-31. The fans storm the field. Oregon State then stomps on USC 28-7 and wins the Pac-12.
Alabama rolls. The Irish win out, and edge K-State in the rankings. The two teams meet in one of the most hyped college football games of all time; four horsemen, the ghost of Bear Bryant. Lou Holtz literally has to be committed to an insane asylum he's so excited. When the game starts, Alabama quickly builds a 17-0 lead, and then Saban spends the rest of the game taking a knee. Because he can, that's why. Tide win, 17-0.
Rose - Oregon State (12-1) vs. Nebraska (10-3) - The Beavers last went to the Rose Bowl in 1957, a 35-19 loss to Iowa. They last won the Rose Bowl in 1942, when they beat Duke 20-16 and the game was played in North Carolina because the Japanese had bombed Pearl Harbor three weeks earlier. They have never won a Rose Bowl game played in Pasadena. Nebraska is 0-2 in the Rose Bowl, their last appearance being the 2002 Championship, when the bastards stole the spot from Oregon and lost to Miami 37-14. I would pick the Beavers in this game, since they beat UCLA 27-20 and UCLA beat Nebraska 36-30. Beavers win, 28-17.
Fiesta - Kansas State (12-0) vs. Oregon (11-1) - Somewhere, there is an alternate universe where Oregon and Kansas State hadn't cancelled their scheduled home-and-home, and we saw this game played in September. In another universe, college football has a sane post season system, and the winner of this game gets to play the winner of Alabama-ND a week after New Year's. And then there's this universe, where the Fiesta Bowl grabs the one-loss Ducks and sets them up against the stingy defense of Kansas State. Ducks win, 39-31.
Sugar - Georgia (11-2) vs. Clemson (10-2) - Who, hypothetically, would the Sugar Bowl pick to match-up against the SEC? First pick would be Notre Dame, unless they get grabbed by the BCS or the Fiesta. Second would be Oklahoma, unless they finish with three or more losses. Third would be a Big Ten team, but Michigan and Wisconsin already have 3 losses. (And not Northwestern.) So I'll go with ACC runner-up Clemson. That or 11-1 MWC champ Boise State. Bulldogs win, 35-7.
Orange - Florida State (11-2) vs. Rutgers (11-1) - Somebody's got to pick the Big East champ. As long as the Orange Bowl gets FSU, they could match them up with Tennessee Technical College and be happy. Anything to put butts in the seats. Seminoles win, 48-7.
Cotton - Oklahoma vs. Florida
Capital One - Michigan vs. LSU
Outback - Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Gator - Michigan St. vs. Texas A&M
Peach - North Carolina vs. Mississippi St.
Alamo - Stanford vs. Texas
Russell Athletic - Louisville vs. Virginia Tech
Insight - Northwestern vs. West Virginia - I wonder if the Mountaineers are starting to regret their shift to the Big 12 because of the costs of travel. Two trips to Texas, one to Iowa, one to Oklahoma. A bowl trip to Arizona might just break the bank.
Holiday - USC vs. Texas Tech - The Disappointment Bowl. Seriously, going back five years, the Holiday Bowl always has somebody who thought they were going to a BCS bowl, and is all pissed that they have to settle for some second tier December bowl in San Diego.
Sun - UCLA vs. Miami (FL) - Kaching! Maybe not as big of a payday as when the Sun Bowl got Miami v Notre Dame, but a 7-5 Hurricanes team is a team that any bowl would jump for.
Belk - Cincinnati vs. North Carolina St.
Las Vegas - Boise St. vs. Arizona - Boise State is currently 19th in the AP Poll. If they win the Mountain West and finish in the Top 12, they could have a shot at a BCS bowl.
Texas - Oklahoma St. vs. Minnesota - Minnesota hasn't been to a bowl since 2009, and haven't won one since the 2004 Music City Bowl against ... Alabama. In 2003, they won the Sun Bowl against Oregon.
Poinsettia - BYU vs. Nevada
Kraft Fight Hunger - Navy vs. Arizona St.
Pinstripe - Syracuse vs. Iowa St. - Hypothetically, the Orange could still win the Big East at 7-5, and get an auto bid to the BCS. They could also finish 4-8, with games against Cincinnati, Louisville, and Missouri still ahead.
......
........
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Power Rankings - Oct. 28
1) Notre Dame (8-0, 0-0, +16) - We are now in bizarro world, where I feel like I have to defend the Irish against the skeptics, who had Notre Dame as double-digit underdogs against Oklahoma, but whom they beat 30-13. Of course, I also undersold Notre Dame earlier in the evening:
2) Kansas State (8-0, 5-0, +16) - Speaking of defense, Kansas State held Texas Tech to 5.7 yards per play and forced three turnovers and one blocked field goal in administering a 55-24 beatdown in the town of old Manhattoes, KS. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats scored on eight consecutive drives, with QB Collin Klein throwing 19/26, 233 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, plus adding 83 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs on 12 rushes. K-State has an easier schedule than Oregon but harder than Notre Dame ahead, with Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas. I think they'll need both the Ducks and the Irish to lose to get to the national championship.
3) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +14) - Well, the Ducks did their part, beating poor Colorado 70-14 behind a balanced attack that had six different players score touchdowns and four players rushing for 67 yards are more. Next week is their big trip to L.A. to take on the Trojans. Unfortunately, losses by Oregon State and USC make Oregon's future schedule look a lot less daunting, which means that the Ducks are not going to get any love from the computers in the BCS polls.
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13) - Another day, another boring step in the march of inevitability that is the Alabama Crimson Tide's 2012 Season. In their 38-7 win over previously undefeated Mississippi State, the Tide got out to a quick 21-0 lead. They then settled in, and we got to watch the teams combine for 7 consecutive three-and-outs, 16 yards of offense on 21 plays for 11:28 of game time. Yawn.
5) Georgia (7-1, 5-1, +10) - Georgia's defense must have gotten tired of my smack-talking, as they stepped it up in a big way in a 17-9 win over Florida. Florida QB Jeff Driskel was 14/26 for 185 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs, and was sacked five times. On the ground, the Gator rushing attack that gashed LSU was held to 81 yards on 2.0 yards per attempt. The Bulldogs are now in the driver's seat in the SEC East, needing wins against 5-3 Ole Miss and 1-7 Auburn to get to the conference championship and what is essentially a play-in for the national championship.
6) Florida (7-1, 6-1, +11) - Florida, for their part, looked terrible. If they had won, the Gators could've clinched their division before the start of November, and coasted the rest of the year. Now, they're going to need Georgia to suffer a massive upset of some kind in order to sneak back in. On the other hand, if Florida wins out, beating Florida State, and there are no non-SEC undefeated teams left, the Gators may be the best option for an all-SEC Championship against Alabama.
7) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11) - Going back to November of 2010, the Alabama Crimson Tide are 25-3. Two of those losses have been to LSU. The Tigers get their shot next week, and it will be interesting to see what Les Miles has planned over the course of the bye week. If LSU pulls off the upset and wins the SEC, then we could conceivably have another LSU-Alabama rematch, although I think that that would require there to be 0 eligible undefeated teams in the rest of the country.
8) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +9) - The Big Ten's season from Hell continues. Ohio State beat Penn State 35-23, and are one step closer to finishing the season 12-0 and sitting at home in January. (Imagine that, if they're watching 12-1 LSU vs. 11-1 Alabama!) The Buckeyes still have to play Michigan and Wisconsin, who both lost, although for the Badgers it was essentially meaningless, as they remain the only bowl eligible team in the P-Pow-I-I division with more than one conference win. The biggest loser in all of this might be the Rose Bowl, who, if the Ducks go to the NC, might end up with a match-up of 8-5 Wisconsin against 9-4 USC.
9) Oregon State (6-1, 4-1, +9) - Well, damn. The Beavers hopes of an undefeated season ended with their 17-20 loss at Washington. The Huskies are a totally schizophrenic team, but I think I've figured them out: at home, they're 4-1, with wins over Stanford and Oregon State. On the road, they're 0-3, losing 3-41 at LSU, 21-52 at Oregon, and 17-52 at Arizona. Three of Washington's last four games are on the road, but two of those are at Colorado and Washington State, so maybe they'll be able to turn it around. As for the Beavers, they've got no time to feel sorry for themselves, as they host Arizona State next week. The Rose Bowl is still very much a possibility.
10) Louisville (8-0, 3-0, +8)
11) Oklahoma (5-2, 3-1, +6)
12) Texas Tech (6-2, 3-2, +9)
13) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6) - Florida State whooped feel-good story of the year Duke at home, 48-7. Strangely enough, this might not be the last time these two teams meet. The Seminoles have two more conference games, at Virginia Tech and at Maryland, and if they win those they're in the ACC Championship. However, there are five teams that they could conceivably play there. And despite the loss, Duke could still meet them, if the Blue Devils can win out against Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami (FL). If I were to bet, though, I would guess that Duke will stumble, and that North Carolina will take their place.
14) Mississippi State (7-1, 3-1, +5)
15) Boise State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
16) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5) - It was a Pyrrhic Victory for South Carolina, 38-35 against Tennessee. Georgia's win over Florida means that, statistically at least, the Gamecocks can still win the SEC East, although they would need both the Gators and the Bulldogs to lose once. Also, RB Marcus Lattimore's horrific leg injury reminded us that we are all participating in a system in which poor Black men mutilate one another for our entertainment without compensation.
17) Kent State (7-1, 4-0, +5) - Yes, I realize that I have four MAC teams in my top 25. Don't blame me. Blame the Big Ten and Big East teams that keep losing to them. With Kent State's 35-23 win over previously undefeated Rutgers, the MAC is now 24-26 in all non-conference games, including 3-9 against the Big Ten and 3-4 against the Big East. (Although Kent State's one loss was 14-47 at Kentucky.) (Which is Kentucky's only win so far this season.)
18) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
19) Toledo (8-1, 4-0, +4) - Toledo's only loss was 17-24 in OT at Arizona, who has also beaten Oklahoma State and USC. Their best win was two weeks ago, 29-23 versus Cincinnati.
20) Clemson (7-1, 4-1, +3)
21) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3) - I'm telling you guys, UCLA is good. Top 20 good, at least. They came through in a tough 45-43 win at Arizona State which, with USC's loss, created a 3-way tie in the Pac-12 South Division. The Sun Devils still have to play at Oregon State, at USC, vs. Wazzu, at Arizona. The Trojans get Oregon, ASU, and at UCLA. With their upset of USC, Arizona is a game back, with at UCLA, vs. Colorado, at Utah, vs ASU. The Bruins get to host Arizona next week, and they end their season with at Washington State, vs. USC, vs. Stanford. The announcers on Saturday were talking like UCLA can win that 'SC game. The Bruins should start believing it, too.
22) Ohio (7-1, 3-1, +2) - On the one hand, Ohio lost to Miami of Ohio. On the other, they beat Penn State, who is currently 3-1 in the Big Ten. On the third hand, this gives me four teams from Ohio in my top 25. Ohio.
23) Stanford (6-2, 4-1, +2) - Kind of lurking in the background of all this Pac-12 insanity is Stanford, who won an ugly game at home against Washington St., 24-17, and could still win the Pac-12 North. They have Colorado next week, and then back-to-back games against Oregon State and Oregon. If both the Cardinal and the Beavers can take care of business next week (never a given) then that Nov. 10 showdown could be huge, with definite BCS implications.
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Northern Illinois (7-1, 4-0, +1)
#Irish 17, #Sooners 13.Any team with a real defense can beat the Sooners (see below), and Notre Dame made them essentially one dimensional, allowing 15 rushing yards on 24 attempts, and allowing only three of Oklahoma's 13 drives to end in scores. I think it would be absurd for an undefeated anyone who has beaten Michigan, Michigan St., Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC to be denied a spot in the championship, but we'll see. Basically, a lot is going to be in the hands of the Trojans at the end of the season.
— Joel Wright (@joelwrig) October 28, 2012
2) Kansas State (8-0, 5-0, +16) - Speaking of defense, Kansas State held Texas Tech to 5.7 yards per play and forced three turnovers and one blocked field goal in administering a 55-24 beatdown in the town of old Manhattoes, KS. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats scored on eight consecutive drives, with QB Collin Klein throwing 19/26, 233 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, plus adding 83 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs on 12 rushes. K-State has an easier schedule than Oregon but harder than Notre Dame ahead, with Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas. I think they'll need both the Ducks and the Irish to lose to get to the national championship.
3) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +14) - Well, the Ducks did their part, beating poor Colorado 70-14 behind a balanced attack that had six different players score touchdowns and four players rushing for 67 yards are more. Next week is their big trip to L.A. to take on the Trojans. Unfortunately, losses by Oregon State and USC make Oregon's future schedule look a lot less daunting, which means that the Ducks are not going to get any love from the computers in the BCS polls.
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13) - Another day, another boring step in the march of inevitability that is the Alabama Crimson Tide's 2012 Season. In their 38-7 win over previously undefeated Mississippi State, the Tide got out to a quick 21-0 lead. They then settled in, and we got to watch the teams combine for 7 consecutive three-and-outs, 16 yards of offense on 21 plays for 11:28 of game time. Yawn.
5) Georgia (7-1, 5-1, +10) - Georgia's defense must have gotten tired of my smack-talking, as they stepped it up in a big way in a 17-9 win over Florida. Florida QB Jeff Driskel was 14/26 for 185 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs, and was sacked five times. On the ground, the Gator rushing attack that gashed LSU was held to 81 yards on 2.0 yards per attempt. The Bulldogs are now in the driver's seat in the SEC East, needing wins against 5-3 Ole Miss and 1-7 Auburn to get to the conference championship and what is essentially a play-in for the national championship.
6) Florida (7-1, 6-1, +11) - Florida, for their part, looked terrible. If they had won, the Gators could've clinched their division before the start of November, and coasted the rest of the year. Now, they're going to need Georgia to suffer a massive upset of some kind in order to sneak back in. On the other hand, if Florida wins out, beating Florida State, and there are no non-SEC undefeated teams left, the Gators may be the best option for an all-SEC Championship against Alabama.
7) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11) - Going back to November of 2010, the Alabama Crimson Tide are 25-3. Two of those losses have been to LSU. The Tigers get their shot next week, and it will be interesting to see what Les Miles has planned over the course of the bye week. If LSU pulls off the upset and wins the SEC, then we could conceivably have another LSU-Alabama rematch, although I think that that would require there to be 0 eligible undefeated teams in the rest of the country.
8) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +9) - The Big Ten's season from Hell continues. Ohio State beat Penn State 35-23, and are one step closer to finishing the season 12-0 and sitting at home in January. (Imagine that, if they're watching 12-1 LSU vs. 11-1 Alabama!) The Buckeyes still have to play Michigan and Wisconsin, who both lost, although for the Badgers it was essentially meaningless, as they remain the only bowl eligible team in the P-Pow-I-I division with more than one conference win. The biggest loser in all of this might be the Rose Bowl, who, if the Ducks go to the NC, might end up with a match-up of 8-5 Wisconsin against 9-4 USC.
9) Oregon State (6-1, 4-1, +9) - Well, damn. The Beavers hopes of an undefeated season ended with their 17-20 loss at Washington. The Huskies are a totally schizophrenic team, but I think I've figured them out: at home, they're 4-1, with wins over Stanford and Oregon State. On the road, they're 0-3, losing 3-41 at LSU, 21-52 at Oregon, and 17-52 at Arizona. Three of Washington's last four games are on the road, but two of those are at Colorado and Washington State, so maybe they'll be able to turn it around. As for the Beavers, they've got no time to feel sorry for themselves, as they host Arizona State next week. The Rose Bowl is still very much a possibility.
10) Louisville (8-0, 3-0, +8)
11) Oklahoma (5-2, 3-1, +6)
12) Texas Tech (6-2, 3-2, +9)
13) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6) - Florida State whooped feel-good story of the year Duke at home, 48-7. Strangely enough, this might not be the last time these two teams meet. The Seminoles have two more conference games, at Virginia Tech and at Maryland, and if they win those they're in the ACC Championship. However, there are five teams that they could conceivably play there. And despite the loss, Duke could still meet them, if the Blue Devils can win out against Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami (FL). If I were to bet, though, I would guess that Duke will stumble, and that North Carolina will take their place.
14) Mississippi State (7-1, 3-1, +5)
15) Boise State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
16) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5) - It was a Pyrrhic Victory for South Carolina, 38-35 against Tennessee. Georgia's win over Florida means that, statistically at least, the Gamecocks can still win the SEC East, although they would need both the Gators and the Bulldogs to lose once. Also, RB Marcus Lattimore's horrific leg injury reminded us that we are all participating in a system in which poor Black men mutilate one another for our entertainment without compensation.
17) Kent State (7-1, 4-0, +5) - Yes, I realize that I have four MAC teams in my top 25. Don't blame me. Blame the Big Ten and Big East teams that keep losing to them. With Kent State's 35-23 win over previously undefeated Rutgers, the MAC is now 24-26 in all non-conference games, including 3-9 against the Big Ten and 3-4 against the Big East. (Although Kent State's one loss was 14-47 at Kentucky.) (Which is Kentucky's only win so far this season.)
18) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
19) Toledo (8-1, 4-0, +4) - Toledo's only loss was 17-24 in OT at Arizona, who has also beaten Oklahoma State and USC. Their best win was two weeks ago, 29-23 versus Cincinnati.
20) Clemson (7-1, 4-1, +3)
21) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3) - I'm telling you guys, UCLA is good. Top 20 good, at least. They came through in a tough 45-43 win at Arizona State which, with USC's loss, created a 3-way tie in the Pac-12 South Division. The Sun Devils still have to play at Oregon State, at USC, vs. Wazzu, at Arizona. The Trojans get Oregon, ASU, and at UCLA. With their upset of USC, Arizona is a game back, with at UCLA, vs. Colorado, at Utah, vs ASU. The Bruins get to host Arizona next week, and they end their season with at Washington State, vs. USC, vs. Stanford. The announcers on Saturday were talking like UCLA can win that 'SC game. The Bruins should start believing it, too.
22) Ohio (7-1, 3-1, +2) - On the one hand, Ohio lost to Miami of Ohio. On the other, they beat Penn State, who is currently 3-1 in the Big Ten. On the third hand, this gives me four teams from Ohio in my top 25. Ohio.
23) Stanford (6-2, 4-1, +2) - Kind of lurking in the background of all this Pac-12 insanity is Stanford, who won an ugly game at home against Washington St., 24-17, and could still win the Pac-12 North. They have Colorado next week, and then back-to-back games against Oregon State and Oregon. If both the Cardinal and the Beavers can take care of business next week (never a given) then that Nov. 10 showdown could be huge, with definite BCS implications.
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Northern Illinois (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Saturday, October 27, 2012
My Top 25
1) Notre Dame (8-0, 0-0, +16)
2) Kansas State (8-0, 5-0, +16)
3) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +14)
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13)
5) Georgia (7-1, 5-1, +10)
6) Florida (7-1, 6-1, +11)
7) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11)
8) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +9)
9) Oregon State (6-1, 4-1, +9)
10) Louisville (8-0, 3-0, +8)
11) Oklahoma (5-2, 3-1, +6)
12) Texas Tech (6-2, 3-2, +9)
13) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
14) Mississippi State (7-1, 3-1, +5)
15) Boise State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
16) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
17) Kent State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
18) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
19) Toledo (8-1, 4-0, +4)
20) Clemson (7-1, 4-1, +3)
21) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3)
22) Ohio (7-1, 3-1, +2)
23) Stanford (6-2, 4-1, +2)
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Northern Illinois (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Tulsa (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2, +1)
Louisiana Tech (7-1, 2-0, +1)
Arizona (5-3, 2-3, +1)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-2, 5-0, 0)
Western Kentucky (6-2, 3-1, -1)
Texas (6-2, 3-2, -1)
Nebraska (6-2, 3-1, -1)
USC (6-2, 4-2, -2)
San Jose State (6-2, 2-1, -2)
Washington (4-4, 2-3, -2)
Michigan (5-3, 3-1, -3)
Cincinnati (5-2, 1-1, -4)
Temple (3-4, 2-2, -4)
Iowa State (4-3, 1-3, -5)
Northwestern (7-2, 3-2, -5)
Utah State (7-2, 4-0, -5)
Duke (6-3, 3-2, -6)
Penn State (5-3, 3-1, -6)
Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1, -6)
San Diego State (6-2, 4-0, -6)
Arizona State (5-3, 3-2, -7)
UCF (5-2, 3-0, -7)
Ball State (6-3, 2-2, -7)
North Carolina State (5-3, 2-2, -8)
Mississippi (5-3, 2-2, -8)
Arkansas State (5-3, 3-1, -8)
Fresno State (6-3, 4-1, -8)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
TCU (5-3, 2-3, -10)
Miami (FL) (4-4, 3-2, -10)
Vanderbilt (3-4, 2-3, -10)
Middle Tennessee State (5-3, 3-1, -10)
North Carolina (6-3, 3-2, -11)
Michigan State (5-4, 2-3, -11)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Wisconsin (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Missouri (4-4, 1-4, -12)
Bowling Green (6-3, 4-0, -12)
Texas-San Antonio (5-3, 1-2, -13)
Syracuse (3-4, 2-1, -13)
Minnesota (5-3, 1-3, -13)
Navy (5-3, 0-0, -13)
Air Force (5-3, 4-1, -13)
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, 3-2, -14)
Tennessee (3-5, 0-5, -15)
Baylor (3-3, 0-3, -15)
Houston (4-4, 4-1, -15)
Miami (OH) (3-4, 2-1, -16)
Texas State (3-4, 0-1, -17)
East Carolina (5-4, 2-1, -17)
Pittsburgh (4-4, 1-3, -17)
Iowa (4-4, 2-2, -18)
Troy (4-4, 3-3, -18)Arkansas (3-5, 2-3, -19)
Wake Forest (4-4, 2-4, -19)
South Florida (2-5, 0-3, -19)
Maryland (4-4, 2-2, -20)
North Texas (3-5, 2-3, -20)
Virginia Tech (4-4, 2-2, -20)
Utah (3-5, 1-4, -20)
SMU (4-4, 3-1, -20)
New Mexico (4-5, 0-3, -21)
Purdue (3-5, 0-4, -22)
Central Michigan (3-5, 1-3, -22)
Indiana (3-5, 1-3, -22)
Washington State (2-6, 0-5, -23)
Connecticut (3-5, 0-3, -23)
Marshall (3-5, 1-2, -26)
Hawaii (1-5, 0-2, -26)
Florida Atlantic (2-6, 1-3, -26)
Georgia Tech (3-5, 1-3, -27)
Western Michigan (3-5, 1-3, -27)
California (3-6, 2-4, -29)
UTEP (2-6, 1-2, -31)
Colorado (1-7, 1-4, -31)
Rice (3-6, 1-3, -31)
Auburn (1-7, 0-6, -32)
South Alabama (2-6, 1-3, -32)
Boston College (2-6, 1-4, -32)
Illinois (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Buffalo (1-7, 0-4,-34)
Virginia (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Tulane (2-6, 2-4, -34)
Kansas (1-7, 0-5, -35)
Memphis (1-6, 1-2, -35
Colorado State (1-6, 0-3, -35)
New Mexico State (1-7, 0-4, -36)
Kentucky (1-8, 0-6, -36)
Idaho (1-7, 1-1, -38)
UAB (1-7, 0-4, -39)
Wyoming (1-7, 0-4, -39)
Massachusetts (0-7, 0-3, -39)
Army (1-7, 0-0, -41)
Eastern Michigan (1-7, 0-3, -41)
Akron (1-8, 0-4, -43)
Southern Miss (0-8, 0-4, -44)
Florida International (1-8, 0-5, -46)
UNLV (1-8, 0-4, -46)
2) Kansas State (8-0, 5-0, +16)
3) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +14)
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13)
5) Georgia (7-1, 5-1, +10)
6) Florida (7-1, 6-1, +11)
7) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11)
8) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +9)
9) Oregon State (6-1, 4-1, +9)
10) Louisville (8-0, 3-0, +8)
11) Oklahoma (5-2, 3-1, +6)
12) Texas Tech (6-2, 3-2, +9)
13) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
14) Mississippi State (7-1, 3-1, +5)
15) Boise State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
16) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
17) Kent State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
18) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
19) Toledo (8-1, 4-0, +4)
20) Clemson (7-1, 4-1, +3)
21) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3)
22) Ohio (7-1, 3-1, +2)
23) Stanford (6-2, 4-1, +2)
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Northern Illinois (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Tulsa (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2, +1)
Louisiana Tech (7-1, 2-0, +1)
Arizona (5-3, 2-3, +1)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-2, 5-0, 0)
Western Kentucky (6-2, 3-1, -1)
Texas (6-2, 3-2, -1)
Nebraska (6-2, 3-1, -1)
USC (6-2, 4-2, -2)
San Jose State (6-2, 2-1, -2)
Washington (4-4, 2-3, -2)
Michigan (5-3, 3-1, -3)
Cincinnati (5-2, 1-1, -4)
Temple (3-4, 2-2, -4)
Iowa State (4-3, 1-3, -5)
Northwestern (7-2, 3-2, -5)
Utah State (7-2, 4-0, -5)
Duke (6-3, 3-2, -6)
Penn State (5-3, 3-1, -6)
Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1, -6)
San Diego State (6-2, 4-0, -6)
Arizona State (5-3, 3-2, -7)
UCF (5-2, 3-0, -7)
Ball State (6-3, 2-2, -7)
North Carolina State (5-3, 2-2, -8)
Mississippi (5-3, 2-2, -8)
Arkansas State (5-3, 3-1, -8)
Fresno State (6-3, 4-1, -8)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
TCU (5-3, 2-3, -10)
Miami (FL) (4-4, 3-2, -10)
Vanderbilt (3-4, 2-3, -10)
Middle Tennessee State (5-3, 3-1, -10)
North Carolina (6-3, 3-2, -11)
Michigan State (5-4, 2-3, -11)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Wisconsin (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Missouri (4-4, 1-4, -12)
Bowling Green (6-3, 4-0, -12)
Texas-San Antonio (5-3, 1-2, -13)
Syracuse (3-4, 2-1, -13)
Minnesota (5-3, 1-3, -13)
Navy (5-3, 0-0, -13)
Air Force (5-3, 4-1, -13)
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, 3-2, -14)
Tennessee (3-5, 0-5, -15)
Baylor (3-3, 0-3, -15)
Houston (4-4, 4-1, -15)
Miami (OH) (3-4, 2-1, -16)
Texas State (3-4, 0-1, -17)
East Carolina (5-4, 2-1, -17)
Pittsburgh (4-4, 1-3, -17)
Iowa (4-4, 2-2, -18)
Troy (4-4, 3-3, -18)Arkansas (3-5, 2-3, -19)
Wake Forest (4-4, 2-4, -19)
South Florida (2-5, 0-3, -19)
Maryland (4-4, 2-2, -20)
North Texas (3-5, 2-3, -20)
Virginia Tech (4-4, 2-2, -20)
Utah (3-5, 1-4, -20)
SMU (4-4, 3-1, -20)
New Mexico (4-5, 0-3, -21)
Purdue (3-5, 0-4, -22)
Central Michigan (3-5, 1-3, -22)
Indiana (3-5, 1-3, -22)
Washington State (2-6, 0-5, -23)
Connecticut (3-5, 0-3, -23)
Marshall (3-5, 1-2, -26)
Hawaii (1-5, 0-2, -26)
Florida Atlantic (2-6, 1-3, -26)
Georgia Tech (3-5, 1-3, -27)
Western Michigan (3-5, 1-3, -27)
California (3-6, 2-4, -29)
UTEP (2-6, 1-2, -31)
Colorado (1-7, 1-4, -31)
Rice (3-6, 1-3, -31)
Auburn (1-7, 0-6, -32)
South Alabama (2-6, 1-3, -32)
Boston College (2-6, 1-4, -32)
Illinois (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Buffalo (1-7, 0-4,-34)
Virginia (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Tulane (2-6, 2-4, -34)
Kansas (1-7, 0-5, -35)
Memphis (1-6, 1-2, -35
Colorado State (1-6, 0-3, -35)
New Mexico State (1-7, 0-4, -36)
Kentucky (1-8, 0-6, -36)
Idaho (1-7, 1-1, -38)
UAB (1-7, 0-4, -39)
Wyoming (1-7, 0-4, -39)
Massachusetts (0-7, 0-3, -39)
Army (1-7, 0-0, -41)
Eastern Michigan (1-7, 0-3, -41)
Akron (1-8, 0-4, -43)
Southern Miss (0-8, 0-4, -44)
Florida International (1-8, 0-5, -46)
UNLV (1-8, 0-4, -46)
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Power Rankings
1) Oregon State (6-0, 4-0, +15) - The Beavers notched their second consecutive win against the Beehive State, 21-7 at home against Utah, and now have their best start to the season since 1907. They climbed to 7th in this morning's AP poll, two spots behind Notre Dame. I would like to point out that Oregon State had 450 yards, 7.5 per play, in beating BYU 42-24, while allowing 4.6 yards per play and forcing three turnovers; yesterday, Notre Dame beat that same Cougars team 17-14, allowing 4.0 yards per play and forcing two turnovers while registering 389 yards of their own, 6.5 per play. So, yeah, Notre Dame's definitely better than Oregon State.
2) Florida (7-0, 6-0, +15) - Hopefully Florida's 44-11 dismantling of South Carolina made the Crimson Tide sit up and take notice. South Carolina turned the ball over four times, and at one point the Gators had 21 points on 24 total yards. Florida is for real, though, with wins against South Carolina, LSU, and Texas A&M. A lot will be at stake next week against Georgia. Then, strangely enough, the Gators have one more game, versus Missouri, and then they'll be done with their SEC schedule. They finish their season against Louisiana-Lafayette, Jacksonville State, and then at Florida State, in a game that might have BCS implications. (For the first time in a long time!)
P.S. - One voter in this morning's AP poll switched their No. 1 vote from Alabama to Florida. I'm disappointed. There should be more.
3) Oregon (7-0, 4-0, +13) - So, beating a good-not-great Arizona State team 43-21 doesn't seem like much... until .... until you realize that the Ducks scored all of their points over the course of 16 minutes, 22 seconds in the first and second quarters. That means they could have conceivably scored 160 points for the game. They led at half time 43-7, against what had been a top 10 defense, and played mostly bench warmers in the second half. The Ducks get one more tune-up at home against Colorado before they get to run the USC, Stanford, Oregon State gauntlet.
4) Notre Dame (7-0, 0-0, +12) - OK, I know that Lou Holtz is both an Irish Homer and kind of insane. But last night, I think he was stumbling upon one of the essential contradictions of the BCS, the polls, and college football. Everyone agrees that Oregon is better than Notre Dame. But if they both go undefeated, should the Ducks automatically get the BCS nod? Holtz thinks not. The Irish will have four wins against AP Top 25 teams (USC, Stanford, Oklahoma, Michigan) as will the Ducks (Oregon State, Stanford, USC twice). But Notre Dame will have played all its games against BCS conference opponents; they've got no cupcakes like Arkansas State or FCS Tennessee Tech on their schedule. (We can debate the relative merits of Colorado and Boston College later.) But how valid would it be to punish the Ducks for what's essentially an accident of the calendar? Hopefully, the Ducks will demolish Stanford, who came within a centimeter of beating the Irish, and make this whole talk academic.
P.S. - Oh wait, we don't have to! Thanks to all my hard work, we can see that 1-6 Colorado is a -30, meaning that they are slightly less of a drag on their opponent's strength of schedule than 1-6 Boston College, a -33. Hurray!
5) Kansas State (7-0, 4-0, +12) - Kansas State dominated West Virginia 55-14, and now ought to be considered the hands down favorite to win the Big 12. In a showdown of Heisman Trophy hopefuls, West Virginia QB Geno Smith was 21/32, 143 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTS, whereas K-State QB Collin Klein was 19/21, 323 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTS, plus 41 rushing yards on 12 attempts with 4 TDs. Ladies and gentlemen, your new Heisman leader.
6) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11) - Yes, I think that LSU will have a chance in their Nov. 3 showdown against Alabama. But they still needed a bit of luck in beating Texas A&M 24-19. Specifically, much maligned QB Zach Mettenberger was 11 for 29, with 0 TDs and 1 INT. The Tigers get next week off to prepare for Alabama.
On a related note, I don't think that there will be another all-SEC national championship this year. We really needed a perfect storm last year of not having Alabama and LSU play each other in the SEC championship, and of having Oregon and Oklahoma State lose late in the season. Never say never, I guess, but also, remember that the BCS Championship last year was terrible TV. ESPN remembers that, and I'm sure will remind the voters of that when it comes time to make a decision.
7) Rutgers (7-0, 4-0, +10)
8) Alabama (7-0, 4-0, +9) - Alabama rolled on the road, 44-13 against Tennessee. Preseason is over, and now it's time for the Tide to make their move. Next week they play Mississippi State - win, and I'll move them to third or fourth. The week after that, they get LSU. Win again, and they'll be Top 3, maybe higher, depending on what the Ducks and the Gators do. But everyone has to prove their worth on the field.
9) Ohio (7-0, 3-0, +8)
10) Ohio State (8-0, 4-0, +8) - The Buckeyes were the first of several Big Ten teams that escaped from an inferior opponent, beating Purdue 29-22 in overtime. Nebraska had to make a furious comeback to win at Northwestern 29-28, and Michigan beat Michigan State 12-10 on a last minute field goal. Ohio State is good, but not without (big) weaknesses: They gave up 347 yards on 5.0 yards per play to the Boilermakers a week after surrendering 49 points and 6.2 yards per play to Indiana.
11) Louisville (7-0, 2-0, +7)
12) Mississippi State (7-0, 3-0, +7) - Mississippi State has two wins against FBS teams with winning records: 4-3 Troy and 4-3 Middle Tennessee State. In the next three weeks, they play Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. Good-bye, so long, aufwiedersehn farewell.
13) Oklahoma (5-1, 3-1, +7) - Oklahoma coasted at home 52-7 against Kansas. Next week, they get their big showdown against Notre Dame. The Sooners will have homefield advantage, but I'm picking Notre Dame, based on how Oklahoma wilted against the only other defense they've faced so far this season, K-State.
14) Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1, +10) - Tech is kept low because they cannot pass Oklahoma, to whom they lost. This will change next week, when the Red Raiders play Kansas State and Oklahoma plays Notre Dame. (Unless they both lose.)(Which they will.)(Sorry Tech.)
15) Florida State (7-1, 4-1, +5)
16) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2, +4)
17) Georgia (6-1, 4-1, +4) - The Bulldogs just beat a Kentucky team, 29-24, that had previously lost to Florida 38-0 and Western Kentucky 32-31. Georgia's single loss this season was at South Carolina, 35-7, a team Florida beat 44-11. I'm putting money on the Gators next week. I might take the Bulldogs against Western Kentucky. I don't know.
18) Boise State (6-1, 3-0, +4) - Maybe the Broncos are better off not being in the national spotlight this year. After coming out flat in a 13-17 loss at Michigan State, Boise has quietly won six in a row, including 32-7 against UNLV and 20-10 last week against their old rivals, Fresno State. They don't have much opposition the rest of the way, though, until they finish the season against another old rival, Nevada. A Mountain West championship and an invitation to a third consecutive Las Vegas Bowl against UCLA may be the best Boise State can hope for at this point. Sigh. Viva Las Vegas. I guess.
19) USC (6-1, 4-1, +4) - Don't count out the Trojans. Matt Barkley broke a school record with his 101st career touchdown pass, and went 19/20 for 298 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs in a 50-6 win against hapless Colorado. 'SC still has a tough road ahead, but Oregon and Notre Dame both have to come to SoCal this year. Meanwhile, poor Colorado, now 1-6. They get to travel to Eugene next week, and then host Stanford the week after. Remember when they beat Oregon 38-6 in the 1996 Cotton Bowl? No. You don't.
(P.S. - Rick Neuheisel was the coach of that Colorado team. Weird.)
20) Michigan (5-2, 3-0, +3) - With their last minute 12-10 win over Michigan State, the Wolverines ended a four game losing streak to the Spartans, their longest in history. Likewise, this win gets them one step closer to their first Rose Bowl since 2007. If they fail to make the Rose Bowl this year, it will be their longest absence from the Grandaddy since they failed to make the trip to Pasadena from 1952-1965.
21) Toledo (7-1, 3-0, +3)
22) Clemson (6-1, 3-1, +2)
23) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +2)
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Stanford (5-2, 3-1, +1)
2) Florida (7-0, 6-0, +15) - Hopefully Florida's 44-11 dismantling of South Carolina made the Crimson Tide sit up and take notice. South Carolina turned the ball over four times, and at one point the Gators had 21 points on 24 total yards. Florida is for real, though, with wins against South Carolina, LSU, and Texas A&M. A lot will be at stake next week against Georgia. Then, strangely enough, the Gators have one more game, versus Missouri, and then they'll be done with their SEC schedule. They finish their season against Louisiana-Lafayette, Jacksonville State, and then at Florida State, in a game that might have BCS implications. (For the first time in a long time!)
P.S. - One voter in this morning's AP poll switched their No. 1 vote from Alabama to Florida. I'm disappointed. There should be more.
3) Oregon (7-0, 4-0, +13) - So, beating a good-not-great Arizona State team 43-21 doesn't seem like much... until .... until you realize that the Ducks scored all of their points over the course of 16 minutes, 22 seconds in the first and second quarters. That means they could have conceivably scored 160 points for the game. They led at half time 43-7, against what had been a top 10 defense, and played mostly bench warmers in the second half. The Ducks get one more tune-up at home against Colorado before they get to run the USC, Stanford, Oregon State gauntlet.
4) Notre Dame (7-0, 0-0, +12) - OK, I know that Lou Holtz is both an Irish Homer and kind of insane. But last night, I think he was stumbling upon one of the essential contradictions of the BCS, the polls, and college football. Everyone agrees that Oregon is better than Notre Dame. But if they both go undefeated, should the Ducks automatically get the BCS nod? Holtz thinks not. The Irish will have four wins against AP Top 25 teams (USC, Stanford, Oklahoma, Michigan) as will the Ducks (Oregon State, Stanford, USC twice). But Notre Dame will have played all its games against BCS conference opponents; they've got no cupcakes like Arkansas State or FCS Tennessee Tech on their schedule. (We can debate the relative merits of Colorado and Boston College later.) But how valid would it be to punish the Ducks for what's essentially an accident of the calendar? Hopefully, the Ducks will demolish Stanford, who came within a centimeter of beating the Irish, and make this whole talk academic.
P.S. - Oh wait, we don't have to! Thanks to all my hard work, we can see that 1-6 Colorado is a -30, meaning that they are slightly less of a drag on their opponent's strength of schedule than 1-6 Boston College, a -33. Hurray!
5) Kansas State (7-0, 4-0, +12) - Kansas State dominated West Virginia 55-14, and now ought to be considered the hands down favorite to win the Big 12. In a showdown of Heisman Trophy hopefuls, West Virginia QB Geno Smith was 21/32, 143 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTS, whereas K-State QB Collin Klein was 19/21, 323 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTS, plus 41 rushing yards on 12 attempts with 4 TDs. Ladies and gentlemen, your new Heisman leader.
6) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11) - Yes, I think that LSU will have a chance in their Nov. 3 showdown against Alabama. But they still needed a bit of luck in beating Texas A&M 24-19. Specifically, much maligned QB Zach Mettenberger was 11 for 29, with 0 TDs and 1 INT. The Tigers get next week off to prepare for Alabama.
On a related note, I don't think that there will be another all-SEC national championship this year. We really needed a perfect storm last year of not having Alabama and LSU play each other in the SEC championship, and of having Oregon and Oklahoma State lose late in the season. Never say never, I guess, but also, remember that the BCS Championship last year was terrible TV. ESPN remembers that, and I'm sure will remind the voters of that when it comes time to make a decision.
7) Rutgers (7-0, 4-0, +10)
8) Alabama (7-0, 4-0, +9) - Alabama rolled on the road, 44-13 against Tennessee. Preseason is over, and now it's time for the Tide to make their move. Next week they play Mississippi State - win, and I'll move them to third or fourth. The week after that, they get LSU. Win again, and they'll be Top 3, maybe higher, depending on what the Ducks and the Gators do. But everyone has to prove their worth on the field.
9) Ohio (7-0, 3-0, +8)
10) Ohio State (8-0, 4-0, +8) - The Buckeyes were the first of several Big Ten teams that escaped from an inferior opponent, beating Purdue 29-22 in overtime. Nebraska had to make a furious comeback to win at Northwestern 29-28, and Michigan beat Michigan State 12-10 on a last minute field goal. Ohio State is good, but not without (big) weaknesses: They gave up 347 yards on 5.0 yards per play to the Boilermakers a week after surrendering 49 points and 6.2 yards per play to Indiana.
11) Louisville (7-0, 2-0, +7)
12) Mississippi State (7-0, 3-0, +7) - Mississippi State has two wins against FBS teams with winning records: 4-3 Troy and 4-3 Middle Tennessee State. In the next three weeks, they play Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. Good-bye, so long, aufwiedersehn farewell.
13) Oklahoma (5-1, 3-1, +7) - Oklahoma coasted at home 52-7 against Kansas. Next week, they get their big showdown against Notre Dame. The Sooners will have homefield advantage, but I'm picking Notre Dame, based on how Oklahoma wilted against the only other defense they've faced so far this season, K-State.
14) Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1, +10) - Tech is kept low because they cannot pass Oklahoma, to whom they lost. This will change next week, when the Red Raiders play Kansas State and Oklahoma plays Notre Dame. (Unless they both lose.)(Which they will.)(Sorry Tech.)
15) Florida State (7-1, 4-1, +5)
16) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2, +4)
17) Georgia (6-1, 4-1, +4) - The Bulldogs just beat a Kentucky team, 29-24, that had previously lost to Florida 38-0 and Western Kentucky 32-31. Georgia's single loss this season was at South Carolina, 35-7, a team Florida beat 44-11. I'm putting money on the Gators next week. I might take the Bulldogs against Western Kentucky. I don't know.
18) Boise State (6-1, 3-0, +4) - Maybe the Broncos are better off not being in the national spotlight this year. After coming out flat in a 13-17 loss at Michigan State, Boise has quietly won six in a row, including 32-7 against UNLV and 20-10 last week against their old rivals, Fresno State. They don't have much opposition the rest of the way, though, until they finish the season against another old rival, Nevada. A Mountain West championship and an invitation to a third consecutive Las Vegas Bowl against UCLA may be the best Boise State can hope for at this point. Sigh. Viva Las Vegas. I guess.
19) USC (6-1, 4-1, +4) - Don't count out the Trojans. Matt Barkley broke a school record with his 101st career touchdown pass, and went 19/20 for 298 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs in a 50-6 win against hapless Colorado. 'SC still has a tough road ahead, but Oregon and Notre Dame both have to come to SoCal this year. Meanwhile, poor Colorado, now 1-6. They get to travel to Eugene next week, and then host Stanford the week after. Remember when they beat Oregon 38-6 in the 1996 Cotton Bowl? No. You don't.
(P.S. - Rick Neuheisel was the coach of that Colorado team. Weird.)
20) Michigan (5-2, 3-0, +3) - With their last minute 12-10 win over Michigan State, the Wolverines ended a four game losing streak to the Spartans, their longest in history. Likewise, this win gets them one step closer to their first Rose Bowl since 2007. If they fail to make the Rose Bowl this year, it will be their longest absence from the Grandaddy since they failed to make the trip to Pasadena from 1952-1965.
21) Toledo (7-1, 3-0, +3)
22) Clemson (6-1, 3-1, +2)
23) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +2)
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Stanford (5-2, 3-1, +1)
Bowl Predictions
BCS National Championship - Alabama vs. Oregon - The only two unbeaten teams prevent any kind of BCS controversy. Thank goodness, the system works!
Rose - Michigan vs. Oregon St. - Wolverines beat Badgers for Big Ten championship, Rose picks 11-1 Beavers over 10-3 Trojans.
Fiesta - Kansas St. vs. Notre Dame - Lou Holtz declares winner national champion, BCS be damned.
Sugar - Florida vs. Oklahoma - Rematch of 2008 championship. Man, that seems like forever ago.
Orange - Florida St. vs. Louisville - Orange will gladly take the Big East champ as long as they have the Seminoles to fill seats.
Cotton - West Virginia vs. Texas A&M - Geno Smith vs. Johnny Football. Over/under 200?
Capital One -Wisconsin vs. Georgia
Outback - Michigan St. vs. LSU
Gator - Nebraska vs. Mississippi St.
Chick-fil-A Peach - South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech - In ironic twist, the half-time show features performances from Melissa Etheridge, Elton John, and the cast of Glee.
Alamo - USC vs. Texas - Rematch of epic 2005 championship. Alamo Bowl gets more viewers than all other bowls combined.
Russell Athletic - Cincinnati vs. Clemson
Buffalo Wild Wings (nee Insight) - Iowa vs. Texas Tech
Holiday - Stanford vs. TCU - Two teams who had become accustomed to playing BCS games must settle for a tier two bowl. On the plus side, however, that red and purple will go so well together.
Sun - UCLA vs. Duke - Maybe they could get Dick Vitale to do play-by-play.
Belk - Temple vs. North Carolina St.
Las Vegas - Boise St. vs. Arizona St. - Rematch of last year's game. Boise State visits Las Vegas for the third year in a row.
Texas - Oklahoma St. vs. Northwestern
Poinsettia - BYU vs. Nevada
Kraft Fight Hunger - Navy vs. Washington
Pinstripe - Rutgers vs. Iowa St. - Rutgers takes a lower tier game in exchange for getting to play in the Bronx, 49 miles away. The Cyclones get to travel 1,138 miles. They should save their receipts.
Music City - Tennessee vs. North Carolina
Liberty - Tulsa vs. Vanderbilt
Dallas - Minnesota vs. Baylor - This is where conferences start running out of bowl eligible teams. Minnesota needs to find 2 more wins against Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan St. Baylor needs three more against Iowa St., Kansas, Oklahoma, Kansas St., Texas Tech, and Oklahoma St.
Hawaii - UCF vs. Fresno St.
Armed Forces - San Diego St. vs. East Carolina
BBVA Compass - Arkansas vs. Pittsburgh - Panthers get to make their third straight trip to Birmingham, Alabama. Entire team threatens to commit Hari Kari.
Beef 'O' Brady's - Southern Methodist vs. Arkansas St.
New Orleans - Houston vs. Louisiana-Monroe
GoDaddy.com - Northern Illinois vs. Western Kentucky
Little Caesar's Pizza - Ohio vs. Purdue
Famous Idaho Potato - Louisiana Tech vs. Toledo
Military - Miami (FL) vs. Middle Tennessee St.
New Mexico - Air Force vs. Utah St.
Rose - Michigan vs. Oregon St. - Wolverines beat Badgers for Big Ten championship, Rose picks 11-1 Beavers over 10-3 Trojans.
Fiesta - Kansas St. vs. Notre Dame - Lou Holtz declares winner national champion, BCS be damned.
Sugar - Florida vs. Oklahoma - Rematch of 2008 championship. Man, that seems like forever ago.
Orange - Florida St. vs. Louisville - Orange will gladly take the Big East champ as long as they have the Seminoles to fill seats.
Cotton - West Virginia vs. Texas A&M - Geno Smith vs. Johnny Football. Over/under 200?
Capital One -Wisconsin vs. Georgia
Outback - Michigan St. vs. LSU
Gator - Nebraska vs. Mississippi St.
Alamo - USC vs. Texas - Rematch of epic 2005 championship. Alamo Bowl gets more viewers than all other bowls combined.
Russell Athletic - Cincinnati vs. Clemson
Buffalo Wild Wings (nee Insight) - Iowa vs. Texas Tech
Holiday - Stanford vs. TCU - Two teams who had become accustomed to playing BCS games must settle for a tier two bowl. On the plus side, however, that red and purple will go so well together.
Sun - UCLA vs. Duke - Maybe they could get Dick Vitale to do play-by-play.
Belk - Temple vs. North Carolina St.
Las Vegas - Boise St. vs. Arizona St. - Rematch of last year's game. Boise State visits Las Vegas for the third year in a row.
Texas - Oklahoma St. vs. Northwestern
Poinsettia - BYU vs. Nevada
Kraft Fight Hunger - Navy vs. Washington
Pinstripe - Rutgers vs. Iowa St. - Rutgers takes a lower tier game in exchange for getting to play in the Bronx, 49 miles away. The Cyclones get to travel 1,138 miles. They should save their receipts.
Music City - Tennessee vs. North Carolina
Liberty - Tulsa vs. Vanderbilt
Dallas - Minnesota vs. Baylor - This is where conferences start running out of bowl eligible teams. Minnesota needs to find 2 more wins against Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan St. Baylor needs three more against Iowa St., Kansas, Oklahoma, Kansas St., Texas Tech, and Oklahoma St.
Hawaii - UCF vs. Fresno St.
Armed Forces - San Diego St. vs. East Carolina
BBVA Compass - Arkansas vs. Pittsburgh - Panthers get to make their third straight trip to Birmingham, Alabama. Entire team threatens to commit Hari Kari.
Beef 'O' Brady's - Southern Methodist vs. Arkansas St.
New Orleans - Houston vs. Louisiana-Monroe
GoDaddy.com - Northern Illinois vs. Western Kentucky
Little Caesar's Pizza - Ohio vs. Purdue
Famous Idaho Potato - Louisiana Tech vs. Toledo
Military - Miami (FL) vs. Middle Tennessee St.
New Mexico - Air Force vs. Utah St.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
My Top 25
1) Oregon State (6-0, 4-0, +15)
2) Florida (7-0, 6-0, +15)
3) Oregon (7-0, 4-0, +13)
4) Notre Dame (7-0, 0-0, +12)
5) Kansas State (7-0, 4-0, +12)
6) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11)
7) Rutgers (7-0, 4-0, +10)
8) Alabama (7-0, 4-0, +9)
9) Ohio (7-0, 3-0, +8)
10) Ohio State (8-0, 4-0, +8)
11) Louisville (7-0, 2-0, +7)
12) Mississippi State (7-0, 3-0, +7)
13) Oklahoma (5-1, 3-1, +7)
14) Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1, +10)
15) Florida State (7-1, 4-1, +5)
16) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2 , +4)
17) Georgia (6-1, 4-1, +4)
18) Boise State (6-1, 3-0, +4)
19) USC (6-1, 4-1, +4)
20) Michigan (5-2, 3-0, +3)
21) Toledo (7-1, 3-0, +3)
22) Clemson (6-1, 3-1, +2)
23) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +2)
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Stanford (5-2, 3-1, +1)
Northern Illinois (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Tulsa (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Texas A&M (5-2, 2-2, 0)
Louisiana Tech (6-1, 1-0, 0)
Kent State (6-1, 4-0, 0)
Cincinnati (5-1, 1-0, -1) Louisiana-Monroe (5-2, 4-0, -1)
Western Kentucky (5-2, 2-1, -2)
Arizona State (5-2, 3-1, -2)
Texas (5-2, 2-2, -2)
Arizona (4-3, 1-3, -2)
North Carolina State (5-2, 2-1, -2)
Duke (6-2, 3-1, -3)
San Jose State (5-2, 1-1, -3)
Nebraska (5-2, 2-1, -3)
TCU (5-2, 2-2, -4)
Penn State (5-2, 3-0, -4)
Iowa State (4-3, 1-3, -5)
Northwestern (6-2, 2-2, -6)
Nevada (6-2, 3-1, -6)
Utah State (6-2, 3-0, -6)
Wisconsin (6-2, 3-1, -6)
Texas-San Antonio (5-2, 1-1, -7)
Oklahoma State (4-2, 2-1, -7)
San Diego State (5-2, 3-0, -7)
Washington (3-4, 1-3, -8)
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-2, 3-1, -8)
UCF (4-2, 2-0, -8)
Ball State (5-3, 2-2, -8)
Mississippi (4-3, 1-2, -9
Arkansas State (4-3, 2-1, -9)
Fresno State (5-3, 3-1, -9)
Miami (FL) (4-4, 3-2, -10)
Brigham Young (4-4, 0-0, -10)
Temple (3-3, 2-1, -10)
Vanderbilt (3-4, 2-3, -10)
Middle Tennessee State (4-3, 2-1, -11)
Tennessee (3-4, 0-4, -11)
Texas State (3-3, 0-0, -11)
East Carolina (5-3, 2-1, -11)
Iowa (4-3, 2-1, -12)
North Carolina (5-3, 2-2, -12)
Michigan State (4-4, 1-3, -12)
Troy (4-3, 3-2, -12)
Missouri (3-4, 0-4, -13)
Arkansas (3-4, 2-2, -13)
Syracuse (3-4, 2-1, -13)
Bowling Green (5-3, 3-0, -13)
Minnesota (4-3, 0-3, -14)
Maryland (4-3, 2-1, -14)
Wake Forest (4-3, 2-3, -14)
North Texas (3-4, 2-2, -14)
Navy (4-3, 0-0, -14)
Air Force (4-3, 3-1, -14)
Baylor (3-3, 0-3, -15)
New Mexico (4-4, 0-2, -15)
Houston (3-4, 3-1, -16)
Purdue (3-4, 0-3, -16)Washington State (2-5, 0-4, -18)
Pittsburgh (3-4, 0-3, -18)
South Florida (2-5, 0-3, -19)
Virginia Tech (4-4, 2-2, -20)Marshall (3-4, 1-1, -20)
Utah (2-5, 0-4, -21)
Miami (OH) (2-4, 1-1, -21)
SMU (3-4, 2-1, -21)
Georgia Tech (3-4, 1-3, -21)
Central Michigan (2-5, 0-3, -23)
Connecticut (3-5, 0-3, -23)
Indiana (2-5, 0-3, -23)
California (3-5, 2-3, -23)
UTEP (2-5, 1-1, -25)
Auburn (1-6, 0-5, -26)
Hawaii (1-5, 0-2, -26)
South Alabama (2-5, 1-2, -26)
Florida Atlantic (1-6, 0-3, -27)
Western Michigan (3-5, 1-3, -27)
Illinois (2-5, 0-3, -28)
Buffalo (1-6, 0-3,-29)
Kansas (1-6, 0-4, -29)
Memphis (1-5, 1-1, -29)
New Mexico State (1-6, 0-3, -30)
Colorado (1-6, 1-3, -30)
Kentucky (1-7, 0-5, -30)
Rice (2-6, 0-3, -32)
UAB (1-6, 0-3, -33)
Boston College (1-6, 0-4, -33)
Virginia (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Wyoming (1-6, 0-3, -35)
Army (1-6, 0-0, -35)
Tulane (1-6, 1-4, -35)
Colorado State (1-6, 0-3, -35)
Eastern Michigan (1-6, 0-2, -35)
Akron (1-7, 0-3, -37)
Idaho (1-7, 1-1, -38)
Southern Miss (0-7, 0-3, -38)
Massachusetts (0-7, 0-3, -39)
Florida International (1-7, 0-4, -40)
UNLV (1-7, 0-3, -40)
2) Florida (7-0, 6-0, +15)
3) Oregon (7-0, 4-0, +13)
4) Notre Dame (7-0, 0-0, +12)
5) Kansas State (7-0, 4-0, +12)
6) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11)
7) Rutgers (7-0, 4-0, +10)
8) Alabama (7-0, 4-0, +9)
9) Ohio (7-0, 3-0, +8)
10) Ohio State (8-0, 4-0, +8)
11) Louisville (7-0, 2-0, +7)
12) Mississippi State (7-0, 3-0, +7)
13) Oklahoma (5-1, 3-1, +7)
14) Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1, +10)
15) Florida State (7-1, 4-1, +5)
16) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2 , +4)
17) Georgia (6-1, 4-1, +4)
18) Boise State (6-1, 3-0, +4)
19) USC (6-1, 4-1, +4)
20) Michigan (5-2, 3-0, +3)
21) Toledo (7-1, 3-0, +3)
22) Clemson (6-1, 3-1, +2)
23) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +2)
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Stanford (5-2, 3-1, +1)
Northern Illinois (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Tulsa (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Texas A&M (5-2, 2-2, 0)
Louisiana Tech (6-1, 1-0, 0)
Kent State (6-1, 4-0, 0)
Cincinnati (5-1, 1-0, -1) Louisiana-Monroe (5-2, 4-0, -1)
Western Kentucky (5-2, 2-1, -2)
Arizona State (5-2, 3-1, -2)
Texas (5-2, 2-2, -2)
Arizona (4-3, 1-3, -2)
North Carolina State (5-2, 2-1, -2)
Duke (6-2, 3-1, -3)
San Jose State (5-2, 1-1, -3)
Nebraska (5-2, 2-1, -3)
TCU (5-2, 2-2, -4)
Penn State (5-2, 3-0, -4)
Iowa State (4-3, 1-3, -5)
Northwestern (6-2, 2-2, -6)
Nevada (6-2, 3-1, -6)
Utah State (6-2, 3-0, -6)
Wisconsin (6-2, 3-1, -6)
Texas-San Antonio (5-2, 1-1, -7)
Oklahoma State (4-2, 2-1, -7)
San Diego State (5-2, 3-0, -7)
Washington (3-4, 1-3, -8)
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-2, 3-1, -8)
UCF (4-2, 2-0, -8)
Ball State (5-3, 2-2, -8)
Mississippi (4-3, 1-2, -9
Arkansas State (4-3, 2-1, -9)
Fresno State (5-3, 3-1, -9)
Miami (FL) (4-4, 3-2, -10)
Brigham Young (4-4, 0-0, -10)
Temple (3-3, 2-1, -10)
Vanderbilt (3-4, 2-3, -10)
Middle Tennessee State (4-3, 2-1, -11)
Tennessee (3-4, 0-4, -11)
Texas State (3-3, 0-0, -11)
East Carolina (5-3, 2-1, -11)
Iowa (4-3, 2-1, -12)
North Carolina (5-3, 2-2, -12)
Michigan State (4-4, 1-3, -12)
Troy (4-3, 3-2, -12)
Missouri (3-4, 0-4, -13)
Arkansas (3-4, 2-2, -13)
Syracuse (3-4, 2-1, -13)
Bowling Green (5-3, 3-0, -13)
Minnesota (4-3, 0-3, -14)
Maryland (4-3, 2-1, -14)
Wake Forest (4-3, 2-3, -14)
North Texas (3-4, 2-2, -14)
Navy (4-3, 0-0, -14)
Air Force (4-3, 3-1, -14)
Baylor (3-3, 0-3, -15)
New Mexico (4-4, 0-2, -15)
Houston (3-4, 3-1, -16)
Purdue (3-4, 0-3, -16)Washington State (2-5, 0-4, -18)
Pittsburgh (3-4, 0-3, -18)
South Florida (2-5, 0-3, -19)
Virginia Tech (4-4, 2-2, -20)Marshall (3-4, 1-1, -20)
Utah (2-5, 0-4, -21)
Miami (OH) (2-4, 1-1, -21)
SMU (3-4, 2-1, -21)
Georgia Tech (3-4, 1-3, -21)
Central Michigan (2-5, 0-3, -23)
Connecticut (3-5, 0-3, -23)
Indiana (2-5, 0-3, -23)
California (3-5, 2-3, -23)
UTEP (2-5, 1-1, -25)
Auburn (1-6, 0-5, -26)
Hawaii (1-5, 0-2, -26)
South Alabama (2-5, 1-2, -26)
Florida Atlantic (1-6, 0-3, -27)
Western Michigan (3-5, 1-3, -27)
Illinois (2-5, 0-3, -28)
Buffalo (1-6, 0-3,-29)
Kansas (1-6, 0-4, -29)
Memphis (1-5, 1-1, -29)
New Mexico State (1-6, 0-3, -30)
Colorado (1-6, 1-3, -30)
Kentucky (1-7, 0-5, -30)
Rice (2-6, 0-3, -32)
UAB (1-6, 0-3, -33)
Boston College (1-6, 0-4, -33)
Virginia (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Wyoming (1-6, 0-3, -35)
Army (1-6, 0-0, -35)
Tulane (1-6, 1-4, -35)
Colorado State (1-6, 0-3, -35)
Eastern Michigan (1-6, 0-2, -35)
Akron (1-7, 0-3, -37)
Idaho (1-7, 1-1, -38)
Southern Miss (0-7, 0-3, -38)
Massachusetts (0-7, 0-3, -39)
Florida International (1-7, 0-4, -40)
UNLV (1-7, 0-3, -40)
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Power Rankings - Oct. 14
1) Oregon State (5-0, 3-0, +14, SoS: -7) - Well, I picked the winner, but not the score. The Beavers beat the BYU Cougars 42-24 and now have their best start to the season since 1939. Back-up QB Cody Vaz torched the formerly fearsome BYU defense for 332 passing yards and 3 TDs. These Beavers are for real folks. They still have tough road games at Washington and at Stanford, but, man ... has the Civil War ever featured two .... no, I won't even say it.
2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +12, SoS: -13) - I hope that the Ducks enjoyed their week off. If I'm Chip Kelly, sittin' at home watching TV, here's what I saw: A USC team with one of the best quarterbacks and the best receiving corps in the country, but with a defense that is susceptible. A Stanford team with one of the best defenses outside of the SEC and with a punishing offensive line, but a QB prone to make mistakes, and an Oregon State team that has proven that it can beat good teams in more way than one. Should be an interesting second half of the season.
3) Notre Dame (6-0, 0-0, +11, SoS: -6.67) - Auuuugh! What a great game, one that I really wanted Stanford to win, but that they ended up losing 13-20 in overtime. What I saw was two great defenses playing against two average offenses. Cardinal QB Josh Nunes is no Andrew Luck (12/25, 125 yards, 2 INTs) but he shouldn't have to be. Meanwhile, the ND defense allowed 0 touchdowns, allowed 272 yards, had those 2 big INTs, and one huge stop on 4th and goal, which I thought was called correctly. And now how seriously do we need to start taking the Irish's BCS chances? They still have to travel to USC and Oklahoma, but both of those teams are beatable. Notre Dame will just need a little bit of luck to get to the national championship game.
4) Florida (6-0, 5-0, +11, SoS: -8.33)
5) Rutgers (6-0, 3-0, +9)
6) Kansas State (6-0, 3-0, +9) - On a day when West Virginia QB and Heisman Trophy favorite Geno Smith struggled, K-State QB Collin Klein stated his case in a 27-21 win at Iowa State. Klein was 16/24 with 187 yards and 0 TDs and 0 INTs through the air, plus he ran for 105 yards and 3 TDs. The man does everything. Next week, he'll get to go head-to-head against Smith and the Mountaineers in West Virginia.
7) LSU (6-1, 2-1, +9, SoS: -13.428)
8) Alabama (6-0, 3-0, +8, SoS: -8.33)
9) Ohio (7-0, 3-0, +8) - I usually root for the little guys to crash the BCS party, but man, I am sick of the Ohio Bobcats. This week, they beat 1-6 Akron (go Zips!) by the score of 34-28. Akron is the third team in a row that Ohio has played with 1 win or less. And Ohio's schedule means that they get to avoid the other two good teams in the MAC, Toledo and Northern Illinois. In fact, if the NIU Salukis hadn't lost to Iowa 17-18, they would be sitting right here alongside the Bobcats in the power rankings.
12) Mississippi State
13) Oklahoma (4-1, 2-1, +6) - Yeah, Oklahoma is pretty good. But Texas is really bad. In their last four games, they have allowed 31, 36, 48, and 63 points. Oklahoma had 677 yards of offense against the Longhorns, averaging an astounding 7.2 yards per play. The Sooners are still in the hunt for the Big 12 championship, although they will need to win out in their conference, including at West Virginia, and have Kansas State lose twice.
15) Texas Tech (5-1, 2-1, +9) - In a conference that too often seems allergic to even the concept of defense, Texas Tech actually has a pretty good one. They held West Virginia to only 4.7 yards per play in their 49-14 win, and former uber-efficient passer Geno Smith was 29/55 for "only" 295 yards. (He had 656 passing yards against Baylor.) Things don't get easier for Tech with games at TCU and Kansas State next. Also, they're being kept low in these rankings because of their head-to-head loss to Oklahoma.
22) USC (5-1, 3-1, +3, SoS: -13.167) -The Trojans seem to be a team still looking for their groove. They showed flashes of brilliance in their 24-14 win against Washington, especially from receivers Marquise Lee and Robert Woods, but they were flat in the second half, turning a game that should have been a route into a pretty close affair. QB Matt Barkley was particularly listless, with a stat line of 10/20, 167 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. But he'll probably do much better next week against Colorado.
I think we can now safely put Washington in the category of Pac-12 also rans. However, they seem to play much better at CenturyLink Field than on the road. It will be interesting when they host Oregon State in two weeks.
23) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +2, SoS: -12.571) -
2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +12, SoS: -13) - I hope that the Ducks enjoyed their week off. If I'm Chip Kelly, sittin' at home watching TV, here's what I saw: A USC team with one of the best quarterbacks and the best receiving corps in the country, but with a defense that is susceptible. A Stanford team with one of the best defenses outside of the SEC and with a punishing offensive line, but a QB prone to make mistakes, and an Oregon State team that has proven that it can beat good teams in more way than one. Should be an interesting second half of the season.
3) Notre Dame (6-0, 0-0, +11, SoS: -6.67) - Auuuugh! What a great game, one that I really wanted Stanford to win, but that they ended up losing 13-20 in overtime. What I saw was two great defenses playing against two average offenses. Cardinal QB Josh Nunes is no Andrew Luck (12/25, 125 yards, 2 INTs) but he shouldn't have to be. Meanwhile, the ND defense allowed 0 touchdowns, allowed 272 yards, had those 2 big INTs, and one huge stop on 4th and goal, which I thought was called correctly. And now how seriously do we need to start taking the Irish's BCS chances? They still have to travel to USC and Oklahoma, but both of those teams are beatable. Notre Dame will just need a little bit of luck to get to the national championship game.
4) Florida (6-0, 5-0, +11, SoS: -8.33)
5) Rutgers (6-0, 3-0, +9)
6) Kansas State (6-0, 3-0, +9) - On a day when West Virginia QB and Heisman Trophy favorite Geno Smith struggled, K-State QB Collin Klein stated his case in a 27-21 win at Iowa State. Klein was 16/24 with 187 yards and 0 TDs and 0 INTs through the air, plus he ran for 105 yards and 3 TDs. The man does everything. Next week, he'll get to go head-to-head against Smith and the Mountaineers in West Virginia.
7) LSU (6-1, 2-1, +9, SoS: -13.428)
8) Alabama (6-0, 3-0, +8, SoS: -8.33)
9) Ohio (7-0, 3-0, +8) - I usually root for the little guys to crash the BCS party, but man, I am sick of the Ohio Bobcats. This week, they beat 1-6 Akron (go Zips!) by the score of 34-28. Akron is the third team in a row that Ohio has played with 1 win or less. And Ohio's schedule means that they get to avoid the other two good teams in the MAC, Toledo and Northern Illinois. In fact, if the NIU Salukis hadn't lost to Iowa 17-18, they would be sitting right here alongside the Bobcats in the power rankings.
12) Mississippi State
13) Oklahoma (4-1, 2-1, +6) - Yeah, Oklahoma is pretty good. But Texas is really bad. In their last four games, they have allowed 31, 36, 48, and 63 points. Oklahoma had 677 yards of offense against the Longhorns, averaging an astounding 7.2 yards per play. The Sooners are still in the hunt for the Big 12 championship, although they will need to win out in their conference, including at West Virginia, and have Kansas State lose twice.
15) Texas Tech (5-1, 2-1, +9) - In a conference that too often seems allergic to even the concept of defense, Texas Tech actually has a pretty good one. They held West Virginia to only 4.7 yards per play in their 49-14 win, and former uber-efficient passer Geno Smith was 29/55 for "only" 295 yards. (He had 656 passing yards against Baylor.) Things don't get easier for Tech with games at TCU and Kansas State next. Also, they're being kept low in these rankings because of their head-to-head loss to Oklahoma.
22) USC (5-1, 3-1, +3, SoS: -13.167) -The Trojans seem to be a team still looking for their groove. They showed flashes of brilliance in their 24-14 win against Washington, especially from receivers Marquise Lee and Robert Woods, but they were flat in the second half, turning a game that should have been a route into a pretty close affair. QB Matt Barkley was particularly listless, with a stat line of 10/20, 167 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. But he'll probably do much better next week against Colorado.
I think we can now safely put Washington in the category of Pac-12 also rans. However, they seem to play much better at CenturyLink Field than on the road. It will be interesting when they host Oregon State in two weeks.
23) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +2, SoS: -12.571) -
Sunday, October 14, 2012
My Top 25
1) Oregon State (5-0, 3-0, +14)
2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +12)
3) Notre Dame (6-0, 0-0, +11)
4) Florida (6-0, 5-0, +11)
5) Rutgers (6-0, 3-0, +9)
6) Kansas State (6-0, 3-0, +9)
7) LSU (6-1, 2-1, +9)
8) Alabama (6-0, 3-0, +8)
9) Ohio (7-0, 3-0, +8)
10) Ohio State (7-0, 3-0, +7)
11) Louisville (6-0, 1-0, +6)
12) Mississippi State (6-0, 3-0, +6)
13) Oklahoma (4-1, 2-1, +6)
14) South Carolina (6-1, 4-1 , +5)
15) Texas Tech (5-1, 2-1, +9)
16) Cincinnati (5-0, 1-0, +5)
17) Florida State (6-1, 3-1, +4)
18) Western Kentucky (5-1, 2-0, +4)
19) Georgia (5-1, 3-1, +3)
20) West Virginia (5-1, 2-1, +3)
21) Boise State (5-1, 2-0, +3)
22) USC (5-1, 3-1, +3)
23) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +2)
24) Michigan (4-2, 2-0, +2)
25) Texas A&M (5-1, 2-1, +2)
Clemson (5-1, 2-1, +1)
Iowa State (4-2, 1-2, +1)
Northwestern (6-1, 2-1, 0)
Nevada (6-1, 3-0, 0)
Northern Illinois (6-1, 3-0, 0)
Toledo (6-1, 3-0, 0)
Tulsa (6-1, 3-0, 0)
Stanford (4-2, 2-1, 0)
Louisiana Tech (5-1, 0-0, -1)
Texas-San Antonio (5-1, 1-0, -1)
TCU (5-1, 2-1, -1)
Arizona State (5-1, 3-0, -1)
Kent State (5-1, 3-0, -1)
Washington (3-3, 1-2, -2)
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-1, 3-0, -2)
Texas (4-2, 1-2, -3)
Arizona (3-3, 0-3, -3)
North Carolina State (4-2, 1-1, -3)
Duke (5-2, 2-1, -4)
San Jose State (4-2, 0-1, -4)
Nebraska (4-2, 1-1, -4)
Louisiana-Monroe (4-2, 3-0, -4)
Penn State (4-2, 2-0, -5)
Miami (FL) (4-3, 3-1, -6)
Iowa (4-2, 2-0, -6)
North Carolina (5-2, 2-1, -6)
Michigan State (4-3, 1-2, -7)
Utah State (5-2, 2-0, -7)
Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1, -7)
Minnesota (4-2, 0-2, -8)
Middle Tennessee State (4-2, 2-1, -8)
Oklahoma State (3-2, 1-1, -8)
Maryland (4-2, 2-0, -8)
San Diego State (4-2, 2-0, -8)
UCF (4-2, 2-0, -8)
Tennessee (3-3, 0-3, -9)
Baylor (3-2, 0-2, -9)
Brigham Young (4-3, 0-0, -9)
Ball State (4-3, 1-2, -9)
Mississippi (4-3, 1-2, -9
Arkansas State (4-3, 2-1, -9)
Temple (3-2, 2-0, -9)
New Mexico (4-3, 0-1, -9)
Fresno State (4-3, 2-1, -10)
Houston (3-3, 3-0, -10)
Vanderbilt (2-4, 1-3, -11)
Texas State (3-3, 0-0, -11)
East Carolina (4-3, 1-1, -12)
Troy (3-3, 2-2, -13)
Missouri (3-4, 0-4, -13)
Arkansas (3-4, 2-2, -13)
Purdue (3-3, 0-2, -14)
Syracuse (2-4, 1-1, -14)
Bowling Green (4-3, 2-0, -14)
Virginia Tech (4-3, 2-1, -14)
Wake Forest (3-3, 1-3, -15)
North Texas (2-4, 1-2, -15)
Navy (3-3, 0-0, -15)
Air Force (3-3, 2-1, -15)
South Florida (2-4, 0-2, -16)
Central Michigan (2-4, 0-2, -17)
Connecticut (3-4, 0-2, -17)
Indiana (2-4, 0-3, -17)
California (3-4, 2-2, -17)
Washington State (2-5, 0-4, -18)
Pittsburgh (2-4, 0-3, -19)
Utah (2-4, 0-3, -20)
Auburn (1-5, 0-4, -20)
Miami (OH) (2-4, 1-1, -21)
Florida Atlantic (1-5, 0-2, -21)
Western Michigan (3-4, 1-2, -21)
Marshall (2-4, 0-1, -21)
SMU (2-4, 1-1, -22)
Georgia Tech (2-4, 0-3, -22)
Buffalo (1-5, 0-3,-23)
New Mexico State (1-5, 0-2, -24)
Colorado (1-5, 1-2, -25)
Hawaii (1-5, 0-2, -26)
UTEP (1-5, 0-1, -26)
Kansas (1-5, 0-3, -26)
Rice (2-5, 0-2, -26)
Kentucky (1-6, 0-4, -27)
South Alabama (1-5, 0-2, -27)
UAB (1-5, 0-2, -27)
Boston College (1-5, 0-3, -27)
Virginia (2-5, 0-3, -28)
Illinois (2-5, 0-3, -28)
Wyoming (1-5, 0-2, -29)
Army (1-5, 0-0, -29)
Memphis (1-5, 1-1, -29)
Tulane (1-5, 1-3, -29)
Akron (1-6, 0-2, -31)
Idaho (1-6, 1-0, -32)
Southern Miss (0-6, 0-2, -32)
Massachusetts (0-6, 0-2, -33)
Florida International (1-6, 0-3, -34)
Colorado State (1-6, 0-3, -35)
UNLV (1-6, 0-2, -35)
Eastern Michigan (0-6, 0-2, -36)
2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +12)
3) Notre Dame (6-0, 0-0, +11)
4) Florida (6-0, 5-0, +11)
5) Rutgers (6-0, 3-0, +9)
6) Kansas State (6-0, 3-0, +9)
7) LSU (6-1, 2-1, +9)
8) Alabama (6-0, 3-0, +8)
9) Ohio (7-0, 3-0, +8)
10) Ohio State (7-0, 3-0, +7)
11) Louisville (6-0, 1-0, +6)
12) Mississippi State (6-0, 3-0, +6)
13) Oklahoma (4-1, 2-1, +6)
14) South Carolina (6-1, 4-1 , +5)
15) Texas Tech (5-1, 2-1, +9)
16) Cincinnati (5-0, 1-0, +5)
17) Florida State (6-1, 3-1, +4)
18) Western Kentucky (5-1, 2-0, +4)
19) Georgia (5-1, 3-1, +3)
20) West Virginia (5-1, 2-1, +3)
21) Boise State (5-1, 2-0, +3)
22) USC (5-1, 3-1, +3)
23) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +2)
24) Michigan (4-2, 2-0, +2)
25) Texas A&M (5-1, 2-1, +2)
Clemson (5-1, 2-1, +1)
Iowa State (4-2, 1-2, +1)
Northwestern (6-1, 2-1, 0)
Nevada (6-1, 3-0, 0)
Northern Illinois (6-1, 3-0, 0)
Toledo (6-1, 3-0, 0)
Tulsa (6-1, 3-0, 0)
Stanford (4-2, 2-1, 0)
Louisiana Tech (5-1, 0-0, -1)
Texas-San Antonio (5-1, 1-0, -1)
TCU (5-1, 2-1, -1)
Arizona State (5-1, 3-0, -1)
Kent State (5-1, 3-0, -1)
Washington (3-3, 1-2, -2)
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-1, 3-0, -2)
Texas (4-2, 1-2, -3)
Arizona (3-3, 0-3, -3)
North Carolina State (4-2, 1-1, -3)
Duke (5-2, 2-1, -4)
San Jose State (4-2, 0-1, -4)
Nebraska (4-2, 1-1, -4)
Louisiana-Monroe (4-2, 3-0, -4)
Penn State (4-2, 2-0, -5)
Miami (FL) (4-3, 3-1, -6)
Iowa (4-2, 2-0, -6)
North Carolina (5-2, 2-1, -6)
Michigan State (4-3, 1-2, -7)
Utah State (5-2, 2-0, -7)
Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1, -7)
Minnesota (4-2, 0-2, -8)
Middle Tennessee State (4-2, 2-1, -8)
Oklahoma State (3-2, 1-1, -8)
Maryland (4-2, 2-0, -8)
San Diego State (4-2, 2-0, -8)
UCF (4-2, 2-0, -8)
Tennessee (3-3, 0-3, -9)
Baylor (3-2, 0-2, -9)
Brigham Young (4-3, 0-0, -9)
Ball State (4-3, 1-2, -9)
Mississippi (4-3, 1-2, -9
Arkansas State (4-3, 2-1, -9)
Temple (3-2, 2-0, -9)
New Mexico (4-3, 0-1, -9)
Fresno State (4-3, 2-1, -10)
Houston (3-3, 3-0, -10)
Vanderbilt (2-4, 1-3, -11)
Texas State (3-3, 0-0, -11)
East Carolina (4-3, 1-1, -12)
Troy (3-3, 2-2, -13)
Missouri (3-4, 0-4, -13)
Arkansas (3-4, 2-2, -13)
Purdue (3-3, 0-2, -14)
Syracuse (2-4, 1-1, -14)
Bowling Green (4-3, 2-0, -14)
Virginia Tech (4-3, 2-1, -14)
Wake Forest (3-3, 1-3, -15)
North Texas (2-4, 1-2, -15)
Navy (3-3, 0-0, -15)
Air Force (3-3, 2-1, -15)
South Florida (2-4, 0-2, -16)
Central Michigan (2-4, 0-2, -17)
Connecticut (3-4, 0-2, -17)
Indiana (2-4, 0-3, -17)
California (3-4, 2-2, -17)
Washington State (2-5, 0-4, -18)
Pittsburgh (2-4, 0-3, -19)
Utah (2-4, 0-3, -20)
Auburn (1-5, 0-4, -20)
Miami (OH) (2-4, 1-1, -21)
Florida Atlantic (1-5, 0-2, -21)
Western Michigan (3-4, 1-2, -21)
Marshall (2-4, 0-1, -21)
SMU (2-4, 1-1, -22)
Georgia Tech (2-4, 0-3, -22)
Buffalo (1-5, 0-3,-23)
New Mexico State (1-5, 0-2, -24)
Colorado (1-5, 1-2, -25)
Hawaii (1-5, 0-2, -26)
UTEP (1-5, 0-1, -26)
Kansas (1-5, 0-3, -26)
Rice (2-5, 0-2, -26)
Kentucky (1-6, 0-4, -27)
South Alabama (1-5, 0-2, -27)
UAB (1-5, 0-2, -27)
Boston College (1-5, 0-3, -27)
Virginia (2-5, 0-3, -28)
Illinois (2-5, 0-3, -28)
Wyoming (1-5, 0-2, -29)
Army (1-5, 0-0, -29)
Memphis (1-5, 1-1, -29)
Tulane (1-5, 1-3, -29)
Akron (1-6, 0-2, -31)
Idaho (1-6, 1-0, -32)
Southern Miss (0-6, 0-2, -32)
Massachusetts (0-6, 0-2, -33)
Florida International (1-6, 0-3, -34)
Colorado State (1-6, 0-3, -35)
UNLV (1-6, 0-2, -35)
Eastern Michigan (0-6, 0-2, -36)
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Strength of Schedules
| -4.6 | UW |
| -4.8 | ND |
| -5.5 | OSU |
| -7 | ALA |
| -7.2 | IOWA STATE |
| -8.2 | FLA |
| -8.333333333 | GEORGIA |
| -8.5 | OU |
| -8.6 | TT |
| -10.16666667 | ORE |
| -11 | K-STATE |
| -11.33333333 | OHIO STATE |
| -11.83333333 | LSU |
| -12.16666667 | SC |
| -12.6 | WVU |
| -16 | WKU |
| -17.5 | FSU |
| -17.75 | CINCY |
| -18.8 | MISS-ST |
| -20.2 | RUTGERS |
| -20.5 | DUKE |
| -21.66666667 | OHIO |
| -22.4 | LOUISVILLE |
| -22.6 | LA TECH |
| -24.8 | UTSA |
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Big Games Coming Up
The biggest game from my perspective will be South Carolina at LSU. With a win, the Gamecocks will be assured of at least a top-3 ranking, and the rest of the SEC will be put on notice. Right now, I think that South Carolina has the best defense outside of Tuscaloosa. LSU, meanwhile, will have more than pride at stake. They can't really afford to fall more than one game back of Alabama in the conference standings, and, if they lose at home, they would need some luck to remain in the top 25. A win, however, would put them back in the top 10.
Notre Dame will look to remain undefeated when they play Stanford from South Bend. Notre Dame has proven that they can defend the run against Michigan State, but I bet that David Shaw and the Cardinal will have a few tricks up their sleeves. Also, I think they have a better offensive line than Michigan State. I'll be rooting for the Stanford upset. If they do, they'll get a huge boost in the rankings, probably up to 13th or 12th. Notre Dame can't really get much higher, but a loss would knock them down to somewhere between 18th and 20th.
I don't really value Texas all that much, so the Red River Rivalry doesn't really get me all that excited. The loser will be two games back of Big 12 co-leaders Kansas State and West Virginia, which would be bad for both of them. The winner should be 10th or 11th in my poll, while the loser will be unranked.
One game that I will be watching with interest will be #1 Oregon State at BYU. The Beavers will be without starting QB Sean Mannion, but they will be playing an offensively inept Cougars team. I totally expect the final score to be something like 9-2. With Oregon idle, no one can catch the Beavers this week as long as they keep winning.
Notre Dame will look to remain undefeated when they play Stanford from South Bend. Notre Dame has proven that they can defend the run against Michigan State, but I bet that David Shaw and the Cardinal will have a few tricks up their sleeves. Also, I think they have a better offensive line than Michigan State. I'll be rooting for the Stanford upset. If they do, they'll get a huge boost in the rankings, probably up to 13th or 12th. Notre Dame can't really get much higher, but a loss would knock them down to somewhere between 18th and 20th.
I don't really value Texas all that much, so the Red River Rivalry doesn't really get me all that excited. The loser will be two games back of Big 12 co-leaders Kansas State and West Virginia, which would be bad for both of them. The winner should be 10th or 11th in my poll, while the loser will be unranked.
One game that I will be watching with interest will be #1 Oregon State at BYU. The Beavers will be without starting QB Sean Mannion, but they will be playing an offensively inept Cougars team. I totally expect the final score to be something like 9-2. With Oregon idle, no one can catch the Beavers this week as long as they keep winning.
Sunday, October 7, 2012
Power Rankings - Oct. 07
1) Oregon State (4-0, 3-0, +13) - So I've decided to call that number after each team's record their PASS, or Performance Against Strength of Schedule. Oregon State's PASS is +13. You gain a lot of credit for beating good teams, a little credit for beating bad teams; you lose a little credit for losing to good teams, you lose a lot of credit for losing to bad teams. What I'm ranking is how good a team has performed up until this point, not who I think is "best" or who I think "deserves" to play for the BCS Championship. Oregon State has, up to this point, played a very tough schedule and has won 'em all. They looked a little flat against Washington St., with QB Sean Mannion throwing three interceptions and the team only rushing for 100 yards on 40 attempts in the 19-6 win. The defense came through though, causing five turnovers and holding the Cougars to 227 yards of total offense. Last Week: 1
2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +12) - I think it's a sign that you're a member of the community when you get on the bus after buying groceries on Sunday morning, and the first thing the bus driver says to you is, "Your Ducks looked pretty good last night." Yes they did, Mr. Bus Driver. Oregon's offense was clicking on all cylinders last night, or whatever cylinders do, in a 52-21 win over Washington. Marcus Mariota passed for 198 yards and 4 TDs, Kenjon Barner rushed 122 yards on 20 carries and De'Anthony Thomas had 75 on 10. The Ducks get a bye week before beginning the much more difficult second half of their schedule: at Arizona St., vs. Colorado, at AP #11 USC, at Cal, vs. #17 Stanford, at #10 Oregon State. Last Week: 3
3) Notre Dame (5-0, 0-0, +10) - "But my Irish looked pretty good too!" said Mr. Bus Driver. Yes, they did, beating Miami 41-3. The key difference between this Notre Dame team and past iterations is the defense. They held Miami to only 84 rushing yards, and had 34 first downs compared to Miami's 13. Like Oregon, Notre Dame has a brutal schedule ahead, starting with Stanford next week, at Oklahoma on Oct. 27 and at USC on Nov. 24. Unlike Oregon, however, I think a one-loss Notre Dame team makes it to the National Championship. Last Week: 4
4) Florida (5-0, 4-0, +10) - When was the last time somebody was able to run against the LSU Tigers? Florida RB Mike Gillislee ran between the tackles for 146 yards on 34 attempts and 2 TDs behind a suddenly dominant offensive line. Florida still has to run the gauntlet at home against South Carolina and at Georgia, but this win ought to give them a lot of confidence going forward. Last Week: 9
5) South Carolina (6-0, 4-0, +9) - Defense wins championships, especially in the SEC. In beating rival Georgia 35-7, South Carolina held the Bulldogs to 224 total yards, half their average, 115 yards rushing on 3.2 yards per rush, and 15 first downs. They head to LSU next week, and play at Florida on Oct. 20, with a possible trip to the SEC championship on the line. Last Week: 14
6) Rutgers (5-0, 2-0, +8) - Let's talk Big East. In what may be the conference's last season in football, it is doing quite well, with a 20-10 non-conference record and three teams in the AP top 25. Louisville seems to be the best team, but they have yet to play a conference game, and recently struggled against a terrible Southern Miss team. After that comes Rutgers and Cincinnati. All three still have to play one another, and each gets one at home and one away. But even though Rutgers hosts Louisville, they get Cincinnati and Pitt back-to-back on the road. I really doubt we'll know who the champion will be before the end of November, though. Last Week: 6
7) Alabama (5-0, 2-0, +7) - OK, I know that the voters will never deny the SEC champion a spot in the national championship. Nor should they, unless something weird happens and that team is, like, 8-5 or something. But I think Alabama should be concerned about how weak their schedule keeps getting. Arkansas and Auburn are terrible. Their "signature" win against 3-2 Michigan doesn't look great, although that could change if Michigan lights up the Big Ten like they did Purdue. And now LSU goes and loses! The Massey computer currently has Alabama 7th, behind one-loss Texas and Texas-Tech. Last Week: 7
8) West Virginia (5-0, 2-0, +7) - West Virginia showed that they could win in more than one way on Saturday, holding Texas scoreless in the 4th quarter until the final 15 seconds, and holding on for the win, 48-45. Things won't get easier for the Mountaineers, with Texas Tech, Kansas State, and TCU up next. Last Week: 19
BCS Nightmare scenario #1: West Virginia blitzes the Big 12, scoring 1,000 points, allowing 950, and finishing 12-0. Oregon makes a furious rally at home to beat USC 34-33, win the Pac-12, and finish 13-0. LSU upsets Alabama at home 7-6, crushes South Carolina in the SEC Championship 35-3, and finishes 12-1. Alabama finishes 11-1. Who do YOU put in the BCS???
9) Ohio (6-0, 2-0, +7) - If my PASS system were adopted as a legitimate way to determine the BCS, probably the best way to game would be what I call the "Boise State System." Pick a big name team you think you can beat, and schedule them very early in the season. Win that game, then steamroll your inferior conference en route to an undefeated season while the big guys beat up on each other. The Ohio Bobcats' win against Penn State looks much better after Penn State's win against Northwestern, but Ohio's last two wins (37-34 at winless UMass and 38-31 against Buffalo) do not engender much confidence. The only team left on their schedule better than .500 is 4-1 Kent State, although they could be destined to a MAC championship showdown against Northern Illinois that would boost their strength of schedule. Last Week: 10
10) Kansas State (5-0, 2-0, +6) - We now are starting to get a picture of the Big 12. West Virginia and Kansas State are the only remaining undefeated teams, and they play each other in Morgantown, WV on Oct. 20. But both teams have tough road games next week, with West Virginia at Texas Tech and Kansas State at Iowa State. The loser of the Red River Rivalry will have two losses, while the winner will be back in the Big 12 conversation. Hapless Kansas is 0-2, and everybody else has one conference loss. Last Week: 12
11) Ohio State (6-0, 2-0, +6) - Can we like, retroactively revoke Ohio State's bowl ban? Seriously, they are the only good team in the Big Ten, and if they were eligible, they would be in at least the Rose Bowl conversation, maybe even the BCS. For a clearer picture of how sorry the conference is, consider this: The only team left on Ohio State's schedule who is in the AP Top 25 is 3-2 Michigan, at No. 25. Last Week: 17
12) Louisville (5-0, 0-0, +5) Last Week: 16
13) Mississippi State (5-0, 2-0, +5) Last Week: 21
14) Oklahoma (3-1, 1-1, +5) - The Sooners get the credit for finally taking down Texas Tech, 41-20, and I think they ought to be favored in their showdown against Texas next week. They have some kinks to work out first though: QB Landry Jones was only 25/40 on Saturday, they gave up a key fumble, and they were only 8 for 14 on third downs. And, after Texas, the Sooners still have to play Notre Dame, West Virginia, and TCU. I'm picking under 10 wins for the season right now. Last Week: NR
15) Louisiana Tech (5-0, 0-0, +5) - Ohio may be my highest ranked non-BCS team, but I'm liking the WAC's Louisiana Tech Bulldogs as this year's potential BCS-buster. They already have road wins against Illinois and Virginia, and they get to host Texas A&M next week. A win there, and we should get to see a lot more of LaTech. Last Week: 24
16) Texas-San Antonio (5-0, 1-0, +5) - Saturday, November 3rd. Two conference power-houses. Two teams with BCS hopes on the line. A rivalry renewed. USC-Oregon? LSU-Alabama? No. Louisiana Tech versus Texas-San Antonio! Experience the WACtion. Last Week: 18
17) Cincinnati (4-0, 1-0, +4) Last Week: 25
18) Texas Tech (4-1, 1-1, +4) Last Week: 2
19) Iowa State (4-1, 1-1, +4) Last Week: NR
20) LSU (5-1, 1-1, +3) Last Week: 13
21) Georgia (5-1, 3-1, +3) - Am I the only person not surprised by Georgia's 35-7 loss at South Carolina? They gave up 6.4 yards per play, which is about in line with the 5.6 they gave to Tennessee, 5.0 to Buffalo, and 4.5 to Florida Atlantic. The big difference was the fact that the Gamecocks could stop Georgia's rushing offense. The good news for Georgia is that they only have one tough game left on their schedule, home against Florida, whereas South Carolina still has at LSU, at Florida, and at Clemson. Seriously, who set these SEC schedules? Last Week: 11
22) Florida State (5-1, 2-1, +3) - Man, as soon as I get on the FSU bandwagon, they pull a stinker like this one. I was thinking of comparisons between this team and Pete Carroll's USC teams that would lose to Stanford or Oregon State, but here's the difference: FSU gave away the lead. Those 'SC teams would usually come in sleepwalking and then try to have to engineer a comeback. I don't they'd ever let a bad team back into the game like the Seminoles did. If FSU had lost to Clemson, I'd be saying that they could get back into the National Championship picture. But losing to the Wolfpack? Nope. Good-bye. Last Week: 5
23) Washington (3-2, 1-1, +4) - Here's another problem with my PASS plan. Washington has two losses: at LSU and at Oregon. You don't get punished for losing to those teams. Plus, they get a lot of credit for winning at home against Stanford, who is currently sitting with a bunch of other one-loss teams (Boise State, USC, Clemson) just outside my top 25. But the Huskies beat Stanford 17-13, and the combined score of their two losses was 24-93. I feel like I need some mechanism that could reflect that. Washington hosts USC next week, as both teams will try to climb their way back into the Pac-12 race. (On the other hand, I like that my system inherently rewards UW just for playing 4 of last year's top 10 teams in 6 weeks.) Last Week: 20
24) Western Kentucky (4-1, 1-0, +3) - Of course I think that Florida State is better than Western Kentucky. But have they actually performed better against their strength of schedule? The Hilltoppers have 1 loss - 35-0 at Alabama. They have wins at Kentucky (32-31) and at Arkansas State, whose only other losses are at Oregon and at Nebraska. By contrast, Florida State has a quality win against Clemson, two meaningless wins against FCS Savannah State and Murray State, and one bad loss, at North Carolina State, who was 1-2 against BCS teams before playing Florida State. Last Week: NR
PS: It would take too long to do this for every team, but I calculated Western Kentucky's Strength of Schedule to be -16, and Florida State's at -17.5. So, yes, Western Kentucky has done equally well against a more difficult schedule than Florida State.
25) Duke (5-1, 2-0, +2) - Duke! At football! Their sole loss is to Stanford, so, actually, by my own rules, they should not be ranked here. (Stanford also having one loss.) So, um, .... shit ... but still, Duke! At football! Last Week: NR
Dropped Out:
UCLA, Northwestern, Texas, TCU
2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +12) - I think it's a sign that you're a member of the community when you get on the bus after buying groceries on Sunday morning, and the first thing the bus driver says to you is, "Your Ducks looked pretty good last night." Yes they did, Mr. Bus Driver. Oregon's offense was clicking on all cylinders last night, or whatever cylinders do, in a 52-21 win over Washington. Marcus Mariota passed for 198 yards and 4 TDs, Kenjon Barner rushed 122 yards on 20 carries and De'Anthony Thomas had 75 on 10. The Ducks get a bye week before beginning the much more difficult second half of their schedule: at Arizona St., vs. Colorado, at AP #11 USC, at Cal, vs. #17 Stanford, at #10 Oregon State. Last Week: 3
3) Notre Dame (5-0, 0-0, +10) - "But my Irish looked pretty good too!" said Mr. Bus Driver. Yes, they did, beating Miami 41-3. The key difference between this Notre Dame team and past iterations is the defense. They held Miami to only 84 rushing yards, and had 34 first downs compared to Miami's 13. Like Oregon, Notre Dame has a brutal schedule ahead, starting with Stanford next week, at Oklahoma on Oct. 27 and at USC on Nov. 24. Unlike Oregon, however, I think a one-loss Notre Dame team makes it to the National Championship. Last Week: 4
4) Florida (5-0, 4-0, +10) - When was the last time somebody was able to run against the LSU Tigers? Florida RB Mike Gillislee ran between the tackles for 146 yards on 34 attempts and 2 TDs behind a suddenly dominant offensive line. Florida still has to run the gauntlet at home against South Carolina and at Georgia, but this win ought to give them a lot of confidence going forward. Last Week: 9
5) South Carolina (6-0, 4-0, +9) - Defense wins championships, especially in the SEC. In beating rival Georgia 35-7, South Carolina held the Bulldogs to 224 total yards, half their average, 115 yards rushing on 3.2 yards per rush, and 15 first downs. They head to LSU next week, and play at Florida on Oct. 20, with a possible trip to the SEC championship on the line. Last Week: 14
6) Rutgers (5-0, 2-0, +8) - Let's talk Big East. In what may be the conference's last season in football, it is doing quite well, with a 20-10 non-conference record and three teams in the AP top 25. Louisville seems to be the best team, but they have yet to play a conference game, and recently struggled against a terrible Southern Miss team. After that comes Rutgers and Cincinnati. All three still have to play one another, and each gets one at home and one away. But even though Rutgers hosts Louisville, they get Cincinnati and Pitt back-to-back on the road. I really doubt we'll know who the champion will be before the end of November, though. Last Week: 6
7) Alabama (5-0, 2-0, +7) - OK, I know that the voters will never deny the SEC champion a spot in the national championship. Nor should they, unless something weird happens and that team is, like, 8-5 or something. But I think Alabama should be concerned about how weak their schedule keeps getting. Arkansas and Auburn are terrible. Their "signature" win against 3-2 Michigan doesn't look great, although that could change if Michigan lights up the Big Ten like they did Purdue. And now LSU goes and loses! The Massey computer currently has Alabama 7th, behind one-loss Texas and Texas-Tech. Last Week: 7
8) West Virginia (5-0, 2-0, +7) - West Virginia showed that they could win in more than one way on Saturday, holding Texas scoreless in the 4th quarter until the final 15 seconds, and holding on for the win, 48-45. Things won't get easier for the Mountaineers, with Texas Tech, Kansas State, and TCU up next. Last Week: 19
BCS Nightmare scenario #1: West Virginia blitzes the Big 12, scoring 1,000 points, allowing 950, and finishing 12-0. Oregon makes a furious rally at home to beat USC 34-33, win the Pac-12, and finish 13-0. LSU upsets Alabama at home 7-6, crushes South Carolina in the SEC Championship 35-3, and finishes 12-1. Alabama finishes 11-1. Who do YOU put in the BCS???
9) Ohio (6-0, 2-0, +7) - If my PASS system were adopted as a legitimate way to determine the BCS, probably the best way to game would be what I call the "Boise State System." Pick a big name team you think you can beat, and schedule them very early in the season. Win that game, then steamroll your inferior conference en route to an undefeated season while the big guys beat up on each other. The Ohio Bobcats' win against Penn State looks much better after Penn State's win against Northwestern, but Ohio's last two wins (37-34 at winless UMass and 38-31 against Buffalo) do not engender much confidence. The only team left on their schedule better than .500 is 4-1 Kent State, although they could be destined to a MAC championship showdown against Northern Illinois that would boost their strength of schedule. Last Week: 10
10) Kansas State (5-0, 2-0, +6) - We now are starting to get a picture of the Big 12. West Virginia and Kansas State are the only remaining undefeated teams, and they play each other in Morgantown, WV on Oct. 20. But both teams have tough road games next week, with West Virginia at Texas Tech and Kansas State at Iowa State. The loser of the Red River Rivalry will have two losses, while the winner will be back in the Big 12 conversation. Hapless Kansas is 0-2, and everybody else has one conference loss. Last Week: 12
11) Ohio State (6-0, 2-0, +6) - Can we like, retroactively revoke Ohio State's bowl ban? Seriously, they are the only good team in the Big Ten, and if they were eligible, they would be in at least the Rose Bowl conversation, maybe even the BCS. For a clearer picture of how sorry the conference is, consider this: The only team left on Ohio State's schedule who is in the AP Top 25 is 3-2 Michigan, at No. 25. Last Week: 17
12) Louisville (5-0, 0-0, +5) Last Week: 16
13) Mississippi State (5-0, 2-0, +5) Last Week: 21
14) Oklahoma (3-1, 1-1, +5) - The Sooners get the credit for finally taking down Texas Tech, 41-20, and I think they ought to be favored in their showdown against Texas next week. They have some kinks to work out first though: QB Landry Jones was only 25/40 on Saturday, they gave up a key fumble, and they were only 8 for 14 on third downs. And, after Texas, the Sooners still have to play Notre Dame, West Virginia, and TCU. I'm picking under 10 wins for the season right now. Last Week: NR
15) Louisiana Tech (5-0, 0-0, +5) - Ohio may be my highest ranked non-BCS team, but I'm liking the WAC's Louisiana Tech Bulldogs as this year's potential BCS-buster. They already have road wins against Illinois and Virginia, and they get to host Texas A&M next week. A win there, and we should get to see a lot more of LaTech. Last Week: 24
16) Texas-San Antonio (5-0, 1-0, +5) - Saturday, November 3rd. Two conference power-houses. Two teams with BCS hopes on the line. A rivalry renewed. USC-Oregon? LSU-Alabama? No. Louisiana Tech versus Texas-San Antonio! Experience the WACtion. Last Week: 18
17) Cincinnati (4-0, 1-0, +4) Last Week: 25
18) Texas Tech (4-1, 1-1, +4) Last Week: 2
19) Iowa State (4-1, 1-1, +4) Last Week: NR
20) LSU (5-1, 1-1, +3) Last Week: 13
21) Georgia (5-1, 3-1, +3) - Am I the only person not surprised by Georgia's 35-7 loss at South Carolina? They gave up 6.4 yards per play, which is about in line with the 5.6 they gave to Tennessee, 5.0 to Buffalo, and 4.5 to Florida Atlantic. The big difference was the fact that the Gamecocks could stop Georgia's rushing offense. The good news for Georgia is that they only have one tough game left on their schedule, home against Florida, whereas South Carolina still has at LSU, at Florida, and at Clemson. Seriously, who set these SEC schedules? Last Week: 11
22) Florida State (5-1, 2-1, +3) - Man, as soon as I get on the FSU bandwagon, they pull a stinker like this one. I was thinking of comparisons between this team and Pete Carroll's USC teams that would lose to Stanford or Oregon State, but here's the difference: FSU gave away the lead. Those 'SC teams would usually come in sleepwalking and then try to have to engineer a comeback. I don't they'd ever let a bad team back into the game like the Seminoles did. If FSU had lost to Clemson, I'd be saying that they could get back into the National Championship picture. But losing to the Wolfpack? Nope. Good-bye. Last Week: 5
23) Washington (3-2, 1-1, +4) - Here's another problem with my PASS plan. Washington has two losses: at LSU and at Oregon. You don't get punished for losing to those teams. Plus, they get a lot of credit for winning at home against Stanford, who is currently sitting with a bunch of other one-loss teams (Boise State, USC, Clemson) just outside my top 25. But the Huskies beat Stanford 17-13, and the combined score of their two losses was 24-93. I feel like I need some mechanism that could reflect that. Washington hosts USC next week, as both teams will try to climb their way back into the Pac-12 race. (On the other hand, I like that my system inherently rewards UW just for playing 4 of last year's top 10 teams in 6 weeks.) Last Week: 20
24) Western Kentucky (4-1, 1-0, +3) - Of course I think that Florida State is better than Western Kentucky. But have they actually performed better against their strength of schedule? The Hilltoppers have 1 loss - 35-0 at Alabama. They have wins at Kentucky (32-31) and at Arkansas State, whose only other losses are at Oregon and at Nebraska. By contrast, Florida State has a quality win against Clemson, two meaningless wins against FCS Savannah State and Murray State, and one bad loss, at North Carolina State, who was 1-2 against BCS teams before playing Florida State. Last Week: NR
PS: It would take too long to do this for every team, but I calculated Western Kentucky's Strength of Schedule to be -16, and Florida State's at -17.5. So, yes, Western Kentucky has done equally well against a more difficult schedule than Florida State.
25) Duke (5-1, 2-0, +2) - Duke! At football! Their sole loss is to Stanford, so, actually, by my own rules, they should not be ranked here. (Stanford also having one loss.) So, um, .... shit ... but still, Duke! At football! Last Week: NR
Dropped Out:
UCLA, Northwestern, Texas, TCU
My Top 25
1) Oregon State (4-0, 3-0, +13)
2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +12)
3) Notre Dame (5-0, 0-0, +10)
4) Florida (5-0, 4-0, +10)
5) South Carolina (6-0, 4-0, +9)
6) Rutgers (5-0, 2-0, +8)
7) Alabama (5-0, 2-0, +7)
8) West Virginia (5-0, 2-0, +7)
9) Ohio (6-0, 2-0, +7)
10) Kansas State (5-0, 2-0, +6)
11) Ohio State (6-0, 2-0, +6)
12) Louisville (5-0, 0-0, +5)
13) Mississippi State (5-0, 2-0, +5)
14) Oklahoma (3-1, 1-1, +5)
15) Louisiana Tech (5-0, 0-0, +5)
16) Texas-San Antonio (5-0, 1-0, +5)
17) Cincinnati (4-0, 1-0, +4)
18) Texas Tech (4-1, 1-1, +4)
19) Iowa State (4-1, 1-1, +4)
20) LSU (5-1, 1-1, +3)
21) Georgia (5-1, 3-1, +3)
22) Florida State (5-1, 2-1, +3)
23) Washington (3-2, 1-1, +4)
24) Western Kentucky (4-1, 1-0, +3)
25) Duke (5-1, 2-0, +2)
San Jose State (4-1, 0-0, +2)
Boise State (4-1, 1-0, +2)
UCLA (4-2, 1-2, +1)
Michigan (3-2, 1-0, +1)
Stanford (4-1, 2-1, +1)
USC (4-1, 2-1, +1)
Clemson (5-1, 2-1, +1)
Texas (4-1, 1-1, 0)
Miami (FL) (4-2, 3-0, 0)
Northwestern (5-1, 1-1, -1)
Michigan State (4-2, 1-1, -1)
Nevada (5-1, 2-0, -1)
Northern Illinois (5-1, 2-0, -1)
Toledo (5-1, 2-0, -1)
Tulsa (5-1, 3-0, -1)
TCU (4-1, 1-1, -2)
Minnesota (4-1, 0-1, -2)
Arizona State (4-1, 2-0, -2)
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-1, 3-0, -2)
Kent State (4-1, 3-0, -2)
Texas A&M (4-1, 2-1, -2)
Arizona (3-3, 0-3, -3)
North Carolina State (4-2, 1-1, -3)
Baylor (3-1, 0-1, -3)
Nebraska (4-2, 1-1, -4)
Fresno State (4-2, 2-0, -4)
Louisiana-Monroe (3-2, 2-0, -5)
Penn State (4-2, 2-0, -5)
Tennessee (3-2, 0-2, -6)
Iowa (3-2, 1-0, -7)
North Carolina (4-2, 1-1, -7)
Purdue (3-2, 0-1, -8)
Utah State (4-2, 1-0, -8)
Troy (3-2, 2-1, -8)Wisconsin (4-2, 1-1, -8)
Brigham Young (4-2, 0-0, -8)
Middle Tennessee State (3-2, 1-1, -9)
Oklahoma State (2-2, 0-1, -9)
UCF (3-2, 1-0, -9)
Maryland (3-2, 1-0, -9)
San Diego State (3-2, 1-0, -9)
Ball State (3-3, 0-2, -10)
Mississippi (3-3, 0-2, -10)
New Mexico (3-3, 0-1, -10)
Arkansas State (3-3, 1-1, -10)
Temple (2-2, 1-0, -10)
Vanderbilt (2-3, 1-2, -10)
Central Michigan (2-3, 0-2, -11)
Missouri (3-3, 0-3, -11)
Connecticut (3-3, 0-1, -11)
Houston (2-3, 2-0, -11)
Texas State (2-3, 0-0, -12)
Washington State (2-4, 0-3, -12)
Syracuse (2-3, 1-0, -12)
East Carolina (3-3, 0-1, -13)
Indiana (2-3, 0-2, -14)
Utah (2-3, 0-2, -14)
Arkansas (2-4, 1-2, -14)
Auburn (1-4, 0-3, -14)
Wake Forest (3-3, 1-3, -15)
North Texas (2-4, 1-2, -15)
Miami (OH) (2-3, 1-0, -15)
Florida Atlantic (1-4, 0-1, -15)
Western Michigan (3-3, 1-1, -15)
Bowling Green (3-3, 1-0, -15)
Pittsburgh (2-3, 0-2, -16)
Virginia Tech (3-3, 1-1, -16)
South Florida (2-4, 0-2, -16)
Navy (2-3, 0-0, -16)
Air Force (2-3, 1-1, -16)
SMU (2-3, 1-0, -16)
Buffalo (1-4, 0-2,-17)California (2-4, 1-2, -18)
Colorado (1-4, 1-1, -19)
Hawaii (1-4, 0-2, -20)
UTEP (1-4, 0-1, -20)
Kansas (1-4, 0-2, -20)
Marshall (2-4, 0-1, -21)
Kentucky (1-5, 0-3, -21)
South Alabama (1-4, 0-1, -21)
UAB (1-4, 0-1, -21)
Georgia Tech (2-4, 0-3, -22)
Virginia (2-4, 0-2, -22)
Illinois (2-4, 0-2, -22)
Boston College (1-4, 0-2, -22)
Wyoming (1-4, 0-1, -23) Army (1-4, 0-0, -23)
Memphis (1-4, 1-0, -23)
New Mexico State (1-5, 0-2, -24)
Idaho (1-5, 1-0, -26)
Southern Miss (0-5, 0-1, -26)
Florida International (1-5, 0-2, -28)
Akron (1-5, 0-1, -29)
Colorado State (1-5, 0-2, -29)
Rice (1-5, 0-2, -29)
UNLV (1-5, 0-1, -29)
Tulane (0-5, 0-3, -30)
Eastern Michigan (0-5, 0-1, -30)
Massachusetts (0-6, 0-2, -33)
2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +12)
3) Notre Dame (5-0, 0-0, +10)
4) Florida (5-0, 4-0, +10)
5) South Carolina (6-0, 4-0, +9)
6) Rutgers (5-0, 2-0, +8)
7) Alabama (5-0, 2-0, +7)
8) West Virginia (5-0, 2-0, +7)
9) Ohio (6-0, 2-0, +7)
10) Kansas State (5-0, 2-0, +6)
11) Ohio State (6-0, 2-0, +6)
12) Louisville (5-0, 0-0, +5)
13) Mississippi State (5-0, 2-0, +5)
14) Oklahoma (3-1, 1-1, +5)
15) Louisiana Tech (5-0, 0-0, +5)
16) Texas-San Antonio (5-0, 1-0, +5)
17) Cincinnati (4-0, 1-0, +4)
18) Texas Tech (4-1, 1-1, +4)
19) Iowa State (4-1, 1-1, +4)
20) LSU (5-1, 1-1, +3)
21) Georgia (5-1, 3-1, +3)
22) Florida State (5-1, 2-1, +3)
23) Washington (3-2, 1-1, +4)
24) Western Kentucky (4-1, 1-0, +3)
25) Duke (5-1, 2-0, +2)
San Jose State (4-1, 0-0, +2)
Boise State (4-1, 1-0, +2)
UCLA (4-2, 1-2, +1)
Michigan (3-2, 1-0, +1)
Stanford (4-1, 2-1, +1)
USC (4-1, 2-1, +1)
Clemson (5-1, 2-1, +1)
Texas (4-1, 1-1, 0)
Miami (FL) (4-2, 3-0, 0)
Northwestern (5-1, 1-1, -1)
Michigan State (4-2, 1-1, -1)
Nevada (5-1, 2-0, -1)
Northern Illinois (5-1, 2-0, -1)
Toledo (5-1, 2-0, -1)
Tulsa (5-1, 3-0, -1)
TCU (4-1, 1-1, -2)
Minnesota (4-1, 0-1, -2)
Arizona State (4-1, 2-0, -2)
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-1, 3-0, -2)
Kent State (4-1, 3-0, -2)
Texas A&M (4-1, 2-1, -2)
Arizona (3-3, 0-3, -3)
North Carolina State (4-2, 1-1, -3)
Baylor (3-1, 0-1, -3)
Nebraska (4-2, 1-1, -4)
Fresno State (4-2, 2-0, -4)
Louisiana-Monroe (3-2, 2-0, -5)
Penn State (4-2, 2-0, -5)
Tennessee (3-2, 0-2, -6)
Iowa (3-2, 1-0, -7)
North Carolina (4-2, 1-1, -7)
Purdue (3-2, 0-1, -8)
Utah State (4-2, 1-0, -8)
Troy (3-2, 2-1, -8)Wisconsin (4-2, 1-1, -8)
Brigham Young (4-2, 0-0, -8)
Middle Tennessee State (3-2, 1-1, -9)
Oklahoma State (2-2, 0-1, -9)
UCF (3-2, 1-0, -9)
Maryland (3-2, 1-0, -9)
San Diego State (3-2, 1-0, -9)
Ball State (3-3, 0-2, -10)
Mississippi (3-3, 0-2, -10)
New Mexico (3-3, 0-1, -10)
Arkansas State (3-3, 1-1, -10)
Temple (2-2, 1-0, -10)
Vanderbilt (2-3, 1-2, -10)
Central Michigan (2-3, 0-2, -11)
Missouri (3-3, 0-3, -11)
Connecticut (3-3, 0-1, -11)
Houston (2-3, 2-0, -11)
Texas State (2-3, 0-0, -12)
Washington State (2-4, 0-3, -12)
Syracuse (2-3, 1-0, -12)
East Carolina (3-3, 0-1, -13)
Indiana (2-3, 0-2, -14)
Utah (2-3, 0-2, -14)
Arkansas (2-4, 1-2, -14)
Auburn (1-4, 0-3, -14)
Wake Forest (3-3, 1-3, -15)
North Texas (2-4, 1-2, -15)
Miami (OH) (2-3, 1-0, -15)
Florida Atlantic (1-4, 0-1, -15)
Western Michigan (3-3, 1-1, -15)
Bowling Green (3-3, 1-0, -15)
Pittsburgh (2-3, 0-2, -16)
Virginia Tech (3-3, 1-1, -16)
South Florida (2-4, 0-2, -16)
Navy (2-3, 0-0, -16)
Air Force (2-3, 1-1, -16)
SMU (2-3, 1-0, -16)
Buffalo (1-4, 0-2,-17)California (2-4, 1-2, -18)
Colorado (1-4, 1-1, -19)
Hawaii (1-4, 0-2, -20)
UTEP (1-4, 0-1, -20)
Kansas (1-4, 0-2, -20)
Marshall (2-4, 0-1, -21)
Kentucky (1-5, 0-3, -21)
South Alabama (1-4, 0-1, -21)
UAB (1-4, 0-1, -21)
Georgia Tech (2-4, 0-3, -22)
Virginia (2-4, 0-2, -22)
Illinois (2-4, 0-2, -22)
Boston College (1-4, 0-2, -22)
Wyoming (1-4, 0-1, -23) Army (1-4, 0-0, -23)
Memphis (1-4, 1-0, -23)
New Mexico State (1-5, 0-2, -24)
Idaho (1-5, 1-0, -26)
Southern Miss (0-5, 0-1, -26)
Florida International (1-5, 0-2, -28)
Akron (1-5, 0-1, -29)
Colorado State (1-5, 0-2, -29)
Rice (1-5, 0-2, -29)
UNLV (1-5, 0-1, -29)
Tulane (0-5, 0-3, -30)
Eastern Michigan (0-5, 0-1, -30)
Massachusetts (0-6, 0-2, -33)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)