Sunday, October 21, 2012

Power Rankings

1) Oregon State (6-0, 4-0, +15) - The Beavers notched their second consecutive win against the Beehive State, 21-7 at home against Utah, and now have their best start to the season since 1907.  They climbed to 7th in this morning's AP poll, two spots behind Notre Dame.  I would like to point out that Oregon State had 450 yards, 7.5 per play, in beating BYU 42-24, while allowing 4.6 yards per play and forcing three turnovers; yesterday, Notre Dame beat that same Cougars team 17-14, allowing 4.0 yards per play and forcing two turnovers while registering 389 yards of their own, 6.5 per play.  So, yeah, Notre Dame's definitely better than Oregon State.  

2) Florida (7-0, 6-0, +15) - Hopefully Florida's 44-11 dismantling of South Carolina made the Crimson Tide sit up and take notice.  South Carolina turned the ball over four times, and at one point the Gators had 21 points on 24 total yards.  Florida is for real, though, with wins against South Carolina, LSU, and Texas A&M.  A lot will be at stake next week against Georgia.  Then, strangely enough, the Gators have one more game, versus Missouri, and then they'll be done with their SEC schedule.  They finish their season against Louisiana-Lafayette, Jacksonville State, and then at Florida State, in a game that might have BCS implications. (For the first time in a long time!)

P.S. - One voter in this morning's AP poll switched their No. 1 vote from Alabama to Florida.  I'm disappointed.  There should be more.  

3) Oregon (7-0, 4-0, +13) - So, beating a good-not-great Arizona State team 43-21 doesn't seem like much... until .... until you realize that the Ducks scored all of their points over the course of 16 minutes, 22 seconds in the first and second quarters.  That means they could have conceivably scored 160 points for the game. They led at half time 43-7, against what had been a top 10 defense, and played mostly bench warmers in the second half.  The Ducks get one more tune-up at home against Colorado before they get to run the USC, Stanford, Oregon State gauntlet.

4) Notre Dame (7-0, 0-0, +12) - OK, I know that Lou Holtz is both an Irish Homer and kind of insane.  But last night, I think he was stumbling upon one of the essential contradictions of the BCS, the polls, and college football.  Everyone agrees that Oregon is better than Notre Dame.  But if they both go undefeated, should the Ducks automatically get the BCS nod?  Holtz thinks not. The Irish will have four wins against AP Top 25 teams (USC, Stanford, Oklahoma, Michigan) as will the Ducks (Oregon State, Stanford, USC twice).  But Notre Dame will have played all its games against BCS conference opponents; they've got no cupcakes like Arkansas State or FCS Tennessee Tech on their schedule.  (We can debate the relative merits of Colorado and Boston College later.) But how valid would it be to punish the Ducks for what's essentially an accident of the calendar?  Hopefully, the Ducks will demolish Stanford, who came within a centimeter of beating the Irish, and make this whole talk academic.

P.S. - Oh wait, we don't have to!  Thanks to all my hard work, we can see that 1-6 Colorado is a -30, meaning that they are slightly less of a drag on their opponent's strength of schedule than 1-6 Boston College, a -33.  Hurray!

5) Kansas State (7-0, 4-0, +12) - Kansas State dominated West Virginia 55-14, and now ought to be considered the hands down favorite to win the Big 12.  In a showdown of Heisman Trophy hopefuls, West Virginia QB Geno Smith was 21/32, 143 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTS, whereas K-State QB Collin Klein was 19/21, 323 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTS, plus 41 rushing yards on 12 attempts with 4 TDs.  Ladies and gentlemen, your new Heisman leader. 

6) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11)  - Yes, I think that LSU will have a chance in their Nov. 3 showdown against Alabama. But they still needed a bit of luck in beating Texas A&M 24-19.  Specifically, much maligned QB Zach Mettenberger was 11 for 29, with 0 TDs and 1 INT.  The Tigers get next week off to prepare for Alabama.

On a related note, I don't think that there will be another all-SEC national championship this year.  We really needed a perfect storm last year of not having Alabama and LSU play each other in the SEC championship, and of having Oregon and Oklahoma State lose late in the season.  Never say never, I guess, but also, remember that the BCS Championship last year was terrible TV.  ESPN remembers that, and I'm sure will remind the voters of that when it comes time to make a decision.

7) Rutgers (7-0, 4-0, +10)

8) Alabama (7-0, 4-0, +9) -  Alabama rolled on the road, 44-13 against Tennessee.  Preseason is over, and now it's time for the Tide to make their move.  Next week they play Mississippi State - win, and I'll move them to third or fourth.  The week after that, they get LSU.  Win again, and they'll be Top 3, maybe higher, depending on what the Ducks and the Gators do.  But everyone has to prove their worth on the field. 

9) Ohio (7-0, 3-0, +8)

10) Ohio State (8-0, 4-0, +8)  - The Buckeyes were the first of several Big Ten teams that escaped from an inferior opponent, beating Purdue 29-22 in overtime.  Nebraska had to make a furious comeback to win at Northwestern 29-28, and Michigan beat Michigan State 12-10 on a last minute field goal.  Ohio State is good, but not without (big) weaknesses: They gave up 347 yards on 5.0 yards per play to the Boilermakers a week after surrendering 49 points and 6.2 yards per play to Indiana.

11) Louisville (7-0, 2-0, +7)

12) Mississippi State (7-0, 3-0, +7) - Mississippi State has two wins against FBS teams with winning records: 4-3 Troy and 4-3 Middle Tennessee State.  In the next three weeks, they play Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU.  Good-bye, so long, aufwiedersehn farewell. 

13) Oklahoma (5-1, 3-1, +7) - Oklahoma coasted at home 52-7 against Kansas.  Next week, they get their big showdown against Notre Dame. The Sooners will have homefield advantage, but I'm picking Notre Dame, based on how Oklahoma wilted against the only other defense they've faced so far this season, K-State.

14) Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1, +10)  - Tech is kept low because they cannot pass Oklahoma, to whom they lost.  This will change next week, when the Red Raiders play Kansas State and Oklahoma plays Notre Dame.  (Unless they both lose.)(Which they will.)(Sorry Tech.)

15) Florida State (7-1, 4-1, +5)

16) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2, +4)

17) Georgia (6-1, 4-1, +4)  - The Bulldogs just beat a Kentucky team, 29-24, that had previously lost to Florida 38-0 and Western Kentucky 32-31.  Georgia's single loss this season was at South Carolina, 35-7, a team Florida beat 44-11.  I'm putting money on the Gators next week. I might take the Bulldogs against Western Kentucky.  I don't know.

18) Boise State (6-1, 3-0, +4) - Maybe the Broncos are better off not being in the national spotlight this year.  After coming out flat in a 13-17 loss at Michigan State, Boise has quietly won six in a row, including 32-7 against UNLV and 20-10 last week against their old rivals, Fresno State.  They don't have much opposition the rest of the way, though, until they finish the season against another old rival, Nevada.  A Mountain West championship and an invitation to a third consecutive Las Vegas Bowl against UCLA may be the best Boise State can hope for at this point.  Sigh.  Viva Las Vegas.  I guess. 

19) USC (6-1, 4-1, +4) - Don't count out the Trojans.  Matt Barkley broke a school record with his 101st career touchdown pass, and went 19/20 for 298 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs in a 50-6 win against hapless Colorado.  'SC still has a tough road ahead, but Oregon and Notre Dame both have to come to SoCal this year.  Meanwhile, poor Colorado, now 1-6.  They get to travel to Eugene next week, and then host Stanford the week after.  Remember when they beat Oregon 38-6 in the 1996 Cotton Bowl?  No.  You don't.

(P.S. - Rick Neuheisel was the coach of that Colorado team.  Weird.)

20) Michigan (5-2, 3-0, +3)  - With their last minute 12-10 win over Michigan State, the Wolverines ended a four game losing streak to the Spartans, their longest in history.  Likewise, this win gets them one step closer to their first Rose Bowl since 2007.  If they fail to make the Rose Bowl this year, it will be their longest absence from the Grandaddy since they failed to make the trip to Pasadena from 1952-1965. 

21) Toledo (7-1, 3-0, +3)
22) Clemson (6-1, 3-1, +2)
23) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +2)
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Stanford (5-2, 3-1, +1)

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