Power Rankings - Oct. 07

1) Oregon State (4-0, 3-0, +13) - So I've decided to call that number after each team's record their PASS, or Performance Against Strength of Schedule.  Oregon State's PASS is +13. You gain a lot of credit for beating good teams, a little credit for beating bad teams; you lose a little credit for losing to good teams, you lose a lot of credit for losing to bad teams.  What I'm ranking is how good a team has performed up until this point, not who I think is "best" or who I think "deserves" to play for the BCS Championship.  Oregon State has, up to this point, played a very tough schedule and has won 'em all.  They looked a little flat against Washington St., with QB Sean Mannion throwing three interceptions and the team only rushing for 100 yards on 40 attempts in the 19-6 win.  The defense came through though, causing five turnovers and holding the Cougars to 227 yards of total offense.  Last Week: 1

2) Oregon (6-0, 3-0, +12) - I think it's a sign that you're a member of the community when you get on the bus after buying groceries on Sunday morning, and the first thing the bus driver says to you is, "Your Ducks looked pretty good last night." Yes they did, Mr. Bus Driver.  Oregon's offense was clicking on all cylinders last night, or whatever cylinders do, in a 52-21 win over Washington.  Marcus Mariota passed for 198 yards and 4 TDs, Kenjon Barner rushed 122 yards on 20 carries and De'Anthony Thomas had 75 on 10.  The Ducks get a bye week before beginning the much more difficult second half of their schedule: at Arizona St., vs. Colorado, at AP #11 USC, at Cal, vs. #17 Stanford, at #10 Oregon State.  Last Week: 3

3) Notre Dame (5-0, 0-0, +10) - "But my Irish looked pretty good too!" said Mr. Bus Driver.  Yes, they did, beating Miami 41-3.  The key difference between this Notre Dame team and past iterations is the defense.  They held Miami to only 84 rushing yards, and had 34 first downs compared to Miami's 13.  Like Oregon, Notre Dame has a brutal schedule ahead, starting with Stanford next week, at Oklahoma on Oct. 27 and at USC on Nov. 24.  Unlike Oregon, however, I think a one-loss Notre Dame team makes it to the National Championship. Last Week: 4

4) Florida (5-0, 4-0, +10) - When was the last time somebody was able to run against the LSU Tigers? Florida RB Mike Gillislee ran between the tackles for 146 yards on 34 attempts and 2 TDs behind a suddenly dominant offensive line.  Florida still has to run the gauntlet at home against South Carolina and at Georgia, but this win ought to give them a lot of confidence going forward.  Last Week: 9

5) South Carolina (6-0, 4-0, +9) - Defense wins championships, especially in the SEC.  In beating rival Georgia 35-7, South Carolina held the Bulldogs to 224 total yards, half their average, 115 yards rushing on 3.2 yards per rush, and 15 first downs.  They head to LSU next week, and play at Florida on Oct. 20, with a possible trip to the SEC championship on the line.  Last Week: 14

6) Rutgers (5-0, 2-0, +8) - Let's talk Big East.  In what may be the conference's last season in football, it is doing quite well, with a 20-10 non-conference record and three teams in the AP top 25.  Louisville seems to be the best team, but they have yet to play a conference game, and recently struggled against a terrible Southern Miss team.  After that comes Rutgers and Cincinnati.  All three still have to play one another, and each gets one at home and one away.  But even though Rutgers hosts Louisville, they get Cincinnati and Pitt back-to-back on the road.  I really doubt we'll know who the champion will be before the end of November, though.  Last Week: 6

7) Alabama (5-0, 2-0, +7) - OK, I know that the voters will never deny the SEC champion a spot in the national championship.  Nor should they, unless something weird happens and that team is, like, 8-5 or something.  But I think Alabama should be concerned about how weak their schedule keeps getting.  Arkansas and Auburn are terrible.  Their "signature" win against 3-2 Michigan doesn't look great, although that could change if Michigan lights up the Big Ten like they did Purdue.  And now LSU goes and loses!  The Massey computer currently has Alabama 7th, behind one-loss Texas and Texas-Tech.  Last Week: 7

8) West Virginia (5-0, 2-0, +7) - West Virginia showed that they could win in more than one way on Saturday, holding Texas scoreless in the 4th quarter until the final 15 seconds, and holding on for the win, 48-45.  Things won't get easier for the Mountaineers, with Texas Tech, Kansas State, and TCU up next. Last Week: 19

BCS Nightmare scenario #1: West Virginia blitzes the Big 12, scoring 1,000 points, allowing 950, and finishing 12-0.  Oregon makes a furious rally at home to beat USC 34-33, win the Pac-12, and finish 13-0.  LSU upsets Alabama at home 7-6, crushes South Carolina in the SEC Championship 35-3, and finishes 12-1.  Alabama finishes 11-1.  Who do YOU put in the BCS???

9) Ohio (6-0, 2-0, +7) - If my PASS system were adopted as a legitimate way to determine the BCS, probably the best way to game would be what I call the "Boise State System."  Pick a big name team you think you can beat, and schedule them very early in the season.  Win that game, then steamroll your inferior conference en route to an undefeated season while the big guys beat up on each other.  The Ohio Bobcats' win against Penn State looks much better after Penn State's win against Northwestern, but Ohio's last two wins (37-34 at winless UMass and 38-31 against Buffalo) do not engender much confidence.  The only team left on their schedule better than .500 is 4-1 Kent State, although they could be destined to a MAC championship showdown against Northern Illinois that would boost their strength of schedule.  Last Week: 10

10) Kansas State (5-0, 2-0, +6) - We now are starting to get a picture of the Big 12.  West Virginia and Kansas State are the only remaining undefeated teams, and they play each other in Morgantown, WV on Oct. 20.  But both teams have tough road games next week, with West Virginia at Texas Tech and Kansas State at Iowa State.  The loser of the Red River Rivalry will have two losses, while the winner will be back in the Big 12 conversation. Hapless Kansas is 0-2, and everybody else has one conference loss.  Last Week: 12

11) Ohio State (6-0, 2-0, +6) - Can we like, retroactively revoke Ohio State's bowl ban?  Seriously, they are the only good team in the Big Ten, and if they were eligible, they would be in at least the Rose Bowl conversation, maybe even the BCS.  For a clearer picture of how sorry the conference is, consider this: The only team left on Ohio State's schedule who is in the AP Top 25 is 3-2 Michigan, at No. 25.  Last Week: 17

12) Louisville (5-0, 0-0, +5) Last Week: 16
13) Mississippi State (5-0, 2-0, +5) Last Week: 21

14) Oklahoma (3-1, 1-1, +5) - The Sooners get the credit for finally taking down Texas Tech, 41-20, and I think they ought to be favored in their showdown against Texas next week.  They have some kinks to work out first though: QB Landry Jones was only 25/40 on Saturday, they gave up a key fumble, and they were only 8 for 14 on third downs.  And, after Texas, the Sooners still have to play Notre Dame, West Virginia, and TCU.  I'm picking under 10 wins for the season right now.  Last Week: NR

15) Louisiana Tech (5-0, 0-0, +5) - Ohio may be my highest ranked non-BCS team, but I'm liking the WAC's Louisiana Tech Bulldogs as this year's potential BCS-buster.  They already have road wins against Illinois and Virginia, and they get to host Texas A&M next week.  A win there, and we should get to see a lot more of LaTech.  Last Week: 24

16) Texas-San Antonio (5-0, 1-0, +5) - Saturday, November 3rd.  Two conference power-houses.  Two teams with BCS hopes on the line.  A rivalry renewed.  USC-Oregon?  LSU-Alabama? No. Louisiana Tech versus Texas-San Antonio!  Experience the WACtion.  Last Week: 18

17) Cincinnati (4-0, 1-0, +4) Last Week: 25
18) Texas Tech (4-1, 1-1, +4) Last Week: 2
19) Iowa State (4-1, 1-1, +4) Last Week: NR
20) LSU (5-1, 1-1, +3) Last Week: 13

21) Georgia (5-1, 3-1, +3) - Am I the only person not surprised by Georgia's 35-7 loss at South Carolina?  They gave up 6.4 yards per play, which is about in line with the 5.6 they gave to Tennessee, 5.0 to Buffalo, and 4.5 to Florida Atlantic.  The big difference was the fact that the Gamecocks could stop Georgia's rushing offense.  The good news for Georgia is that they only have one tough game left on their schedule, home against Florida, whereas South Carolina still has at LSU, at Florida, and at Clemson.  Seriously, who set these SEC schedules? Last Week: 11

22) Florida State (5-1, 2-1, +3) - Man, as soon as I get on the FSU bandwagon, they pull a stinker like this one.  I was thinking of comparisons between this team and Pete Carroll's USC teams that would lose to Stanford or Oregon State, but here's the difference: FSU gave away the lead.  Those 'SC teams would usually come in sleepwalking and then try to have to engineer a comeback.  I don't they'd ever let a bad team back into the game like the Seminoles did.  If FSU had lost to Clemson, I'd be saying that they could get back into the National Championship picture.  But losing to the Wolfpack?  Nope.  Good-bye. Last Week: 5

23) Washington (3-2, 1-1, +4) - Here's another problem with my PASS plan.  Washington has two losses: at LSU and at Oregon.  You don't get punished for losing to those teams.  Plus, they get a lot of credit for winning at home against Stanford, who is currently sitting with a bunch of other one-loss teams (Boise State, USC, Clemson) just outside my top 25.  But the Huskies beat Stanford 17-13, and the combined score of their two losses was 24-93.  I feel like I need some mechanism that could reflect that.  Washington hosts USC next week, as both teams will try to climb their way back into the Pac-12 race.  (On the other hand, I like that my system inherently rewards UW just for playing 4 of last year's top 10 teams in 6 weeks.) Last Week: 20

24) Western Kentucky (4-1, 1-0, +3) - Of course I think that Florida State is better than Western Kentucky.  But have they actually performed better against their strength of schedule?  The Hilltoppers have 1 loss - 35-0 at Alabama.  They have wins at Kentucky (32-31) and at Arkansas State, whose only other losses are at Oregon and at Nebraska.  By contrast, Florida State has a quality win against Clemson, two meaningless wins against FCS Savannah State and Murray State, and one bad loss, at North Carolina State, who was 1-2 against BCS teams before playing Florida State. Last Week: NR

PS: It would take too long to do this for every team, but I calculated Western Kentucky's Strength of Schedule to be -16, and Florida State's at -17.5.  So, yes, Western Kentucky has done equally well against a more difficult schedule than Florida State.  





25) Duke (5-1, 2-0, +2) - Duke!  At football! Their sole loss is to Stanford, so, actually, by my own rules, they should not be ranked here.  (Stanford also having one loss.)  So, um, ....  shit ... but still, Duke! At football! Last Week: NR

Dropped Out:

UCLA, Northwestern, Texas, TCU