1) Notre Dame (12-0, 0-0, +20) - Well, congratulations Irish, you did it. A 22-13 win over USC was the last step in a crazy season that included two overtimes, three 3-point wins, and trips to Oklahoma, Massachusetts, California, and Ireland. Nine of their opponents will have 6-wins or more, three have 8 or more, and 2 could still be going to BCS bowls. Despite the fact that they needed literal miracles to beat BYU, Stanford, and Pitt, they deserve to be #1 and - with the exception of that Pitt game - they really have looked it ever since their 30-13 win at Oklahoma, especially their defense, which only gave up more than 17 points all season (against Pitt!).
But does anyone actually believe that they will stand a chance against Alabama?
2) Florida (11-1, 7-1, +18) - There were a few minutes yesterday when I really thought all the balls were going to bounce Oregon's way, and get them back into the National Championship. The Ducks had just beaten Oregon State, UCLA and Stanford were tied, and Florida State had just scored 17 consecutive points to open up a 20-13 lead over Florida. Then the Gator defense took over, forcing a fumble, a 3-and-out, and a turnover on downs, leading to 24 consecutive points and a 37-26 win. On those three drives, Florida State had 41 yards on 16 plays, 2.5 yards per play. The Gators finish the season 4-1 against the AP top 13, and, if it were not for the Irish, would be playing the winner of Alabama-Georgia in yet another all-SEC NC game. As it is, they will have to settle for the Sugar Bowl.
3) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +17) - Chase Stuart, at footballperspective.com, has an excellent observation about the SEC: The top 6 teams in the conference were a perfect 30-0 against the rest of the SEC. The bottom 4 (Auburn, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee) were 0-26 against the rest of the conference, with 18 of those losses coming by 10 or more points. The Crimson Tide did not play Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina, but did beat Arkansas 52-0, Tennessee 44-13, and Auburn 49-0. The Bulldogs did not play Alabama, LSU, or Texas A&M, but notched wins over Tennessee 51-44, Kentucky 29-24, and Auburn, 38-0. These two teams will play a semi-final next week, and the winner will play Notre Dame for the national title. And I would call foul if it were not for the fact that nobody seems to be able to beat the SEC on the field.
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17) - The Ducks ended their season on a high note, beating Oregon State 48-24, finishing the season 11-1, and most likely going to a fourth consecutive BCS bowl, probably the Fiesta Bowl against Kansas State or Oklahoma. It's interesting though; after the final week of carnage, the Ducks ended exactly 1-1 against the Top 25. But they also had wins against #28 Washington, #29 Arkansas State, #32 Fresno State, #33 Arizona, and #37 USC, meaning that 7 of their 11 wins came against bowl eligible teams. But without that Stanford win, there is no "signature" victory.
5) Stanford (10-2, 8-1, +17) - Stanford, on the other hand, has wins against #4 Oregon, #15 Oregon State, #16 UCLA, and #20 San Jose State (remember that?). They were able to convincingly shut Oregon's last door to the Rose Bowl with a 35-17 win at UCLA, and now have to do it again to reach their first Rose Bowl since 2000, a 17-9 loss to Wisconsin. Interestingly enough, that Stanford team lost to San Jose State 39-44. Stanford's last Rose Bowl win was in 1972, a 13-12 win over Michigan. That team, the last to be the "Stanford Indians," also lost to San Jose State, 13-12. (Apparently this is a thing. Stanford-San Jose State? I had no idea.)
6) Georgia (11-1, 7-1, +14) - Am I pissed that Georgia, a team that is exactly 1-1 against the Top 25, who's three best wins are against #3 Florida, #32 Vanderbilt and #57 Mississippi is one win away from the National Championship? Yes, yes I am. (The fact that #71 Georgia Tech, who Georgia beat 42-10, is one win away from the ACC Championship and the Orange Bowl, I find hilarious.)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
9) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Kent State (11-1, 8-0, +9)
14) Florida State (10-2, 7-1, +7) - Oh, ACC you are terrible. The conference went 0-4 on Saturday against the SEC, and now finish the season 6-18 against teams from BCS-conferences + ND + BYU. The thing that I noticed was that Florida State, a team that was supposed to pride itself on its defense, allowed 394 yards against Florida, 244 of them on the ground, at a rate of 5.2 yards per rush. By comparison, Louisiana-Lafayette allowed 4.4 yards per rush when they lost to Florida 27-20. But look on the bright side, ACC: at least you're not the Big East.
15) Oregon State (8-3, 6-3, +5) - The Beavers were hanging tough with the Ducks in the third quarter, having just scored a touchdown to cut the lead to 20-17, and Reser Stadium was rocking. Then that weird thing happened where you blink, and Oregon State commits four turnovers, including three interceptions by Sean Mannion, and the Ducks score 14 points in 2:44 and 28 in less than 12, and suddenly it's a blow-out. Even still, this has been a great season for the Beavers, assuming they can put away FCS Nicholls State next week in a make-up game. A bowl win against a Big 12 team in the Alamo Bowl would be a great way to end the season.
16) UCLA (9-3, 6-3, +5) - A week after winning at home against USC, the Bruins looked outclassed in losing to Stanford, 17-35. They have to travel to Palo Alto now, for a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship. I do not think they will win. However, they could still be going to the Holiday Bowl, which is way better than being 6-7 and losing to Illinois in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, like they did last year. Also, assuming that the Ducks get invited to the Fiesta Bowl, there could be 3 Pac-12 vs. Big 12 bowl games this year. Also, on the last night of the regular season, Pac-12 teams went 1-5 at home, the only win being Wazzu over Washington in the Apple Cup. (Pac-12 road teams were 4-1.)
17) Northern Illinois (11-1, 8-0, +5)
18) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
19) Nebraska (10-2, 7-1, +3)
20) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
21) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1) - Boise State did that zen thing where you just sit at home and watch the universe work for you. Last week, they were #22 in the BCS rankings. Yesterday, every team between #15 and #21 lost. This morning, the Broncos are #15 in the Coaches' Poll, because the coaches don't watch football. (Boise State's a much more sensible 25th in the AP.) But if Boise State finishes in the top 16 in the BCS, ahead of the MAC champion (they're 3 spots ahead of NIU, 4 ahead of Kent State in the Coaches') and ahead of one BCS champion (i.e., Louisville, Rutgers. Wisconsin or Georgia Tech if they win their championship games) then Boise State is in a BCS game! But come on, guys. They lost to 6-6 Michigan State. They have wins against 0-12 Southern Miss, 2-11 UNLV, 2-9 Hawaii, 4-8 New Mexico, and 3-8 Colorado State, all five of whom are in My Bottom 25. As much as I love the Smurf Turf, this is not a BCS-quality team.
22) Rutgers (9-2, 5-1, 0)
23) Utah State (10-2, 6-0, -1)
24) Texas (8-3, 5-3, -2)
25) Michigan (8-4, 6-2, -2) - The Wolverines back their way into the Top 25 thanks to losses by Texas, Louisville, Rutgers, Washington, Arizona, and USC. At the end of the season, they can point to the fact that their four losses came to 11-1 Alabama, 12-0 Notre Dame, 10-2 Nebraska, and 12-0 Ohio State. On the other hand, their best win is probably against 9-3 Northwestern, their only win against a team with a winning record, although they did beat four 6-6 teams. That should be enough to get to a New Year's Bowl against the SEC.
Sunday, November 25, 2012
My Top 25
1) Notre Dame (12-0, 0-0, +20)
2) Florida (11-1, 7-1, +18)
3) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +17)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Stanford (10-2, 8-1, +17)
6) Georgia (11-1, 7-1, +14)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
9) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Kent State (11-1, 8-0, +9)
14) Florida State (10-2, 7-1, +7)
15) Oregon State (8-3, 6-3, +5)
16) UCLA (9-3, 6-3, +5)
17) Northern Illinois (11-1, 8-0, +5)
18) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
19) Nebraska (10-2, 7-1, +3)
20) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
21) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1)
22) Rutgers (9-2, 5-1, 0)
23) Utah State (10-2, 6-0, -1)
24) Texas (8-3, 5-3, -2)
25) Michigan (8-4, 6-2, -2)
Ball State (9-3, 6-2, -2)
Louisville (9-2, 4-2, -3)
Washington (7-5, 5-4, -5)
Arkansas State (8-3, 6-1, -5)
Cincinnati (8-3, 3-2, -5)
Vanderbilt (8-4, 5-3, -5)
Fresno State (9-3, 7-1, -5)
Arizona (7-5, 4-5, -6)
Oklahoma State (7-4, 5-3, -6)
San Diego State (9-3, 7-1, -6)
TCU (7-4, 4-4, -6)
USC (7-5, 5-4, -7)
Toledo (8-3, 5-2, -7)
Middle Tennessee State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Louisiana Tech (9-3, 4-2, -8)
Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5, -8)
Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4, -8)
Tulsa (9-3, 6-1, -9)
Northwestern (9-3, 5-3, -9)
Penn State (8-4, 6-2, -9)
UCF (8-3, 5-1, -10)
Louisiana-Monroe (7-4, 5-2, -11)
Syracuse (7-5, 5-2, -11)
Ohio (8-4, 4-4, -12)
Bowling Green (8-4, 6-2, -12)
West Virginia (6-5, 3-5, -12)
Arizona State (7-5, 5-4, -13)
Miami (FL) (7-5, 5-3, -13)
Brigham Young (7-5, 0-0, -13)
East Carolina (8-4, 7-1, -14)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
North Carolina (8-4, 5-3, -15)
Mississippi (6-6, 3-5, -16)
North Carolina State (7-5, 4-4, -16)
Texas-San Antonio (8-4, 3-3, -16)
Baylor (6-5, 3-5, -16)
Temple (4-7, 2-5, -17)
Iowa State (6-6, 3-6, -17)
Nevada (7-4, 4-3, -17)
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Western Kentucky (7-5, 4-4, -18)
Wisconsin (7-5, 4-4, -19)
Missouri (5-7, 2-6, -21)
Pittsburgh (5-6, 2-4, -21)
Duke (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Michigan State (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Georgia Tech (6-6, 5-3, -25)
Tennessee (5-7, 1-7, -25)
Purdue (6-6, 3-5, -25)
Central Michigan (6-6, 4-4, -25)
Connecticut (5-6, 2-4, -26)
Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4, -27)
Minnesota (6-6, 2-6, -29)
Arkansas (4-8, 2-6, -29)
Rice (5-6, 3-4, -29)
Air Force (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Utah (5-7, 3-6, -30)
SMU (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Wake Forest (5-7, 3-5, -31)
North Texas (4-7, 3-4, -31)
Auburn (3-9, 0-8, -32)
Houston (4-7, 4-4, -33)
Troy (5-7, 3-5, -35)
South Florida (3-8, 1-4, -36)
Marshall (5-7, 4-4, -36)
Miami (OH) (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Buffalo (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Florida Atlantic (3-8, 2-5, -37)
Washington State (3-9, 1-8, -37)
Western Michigan (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Virginia (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Indiana (4-8, 2-6, -39)
Maryland (4-8, 2-6, -39)
Texas State (3-8, 1-4, -40)
Iowa (4-8, 2-6, -41)
Wyoming (4-8, 3-5, -42)
California (3-9, 2-7, -39)
New Mexico (4-8, 1-6, -40)
UAB (3-8, 2-5, -43)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Colorado State (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Florida International (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Memphis (4-8, 4-4, -44)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Kentucky (2-10, 0-8, -47)
Hawaii (2-9, 1-7, -49)
South Alabama (2-9, 1-6, -50)
Army (2-9, 0-0, -50)
Boston College (2-10, 1-7, -51)
Colorado (1-11, 1-8, -54)
Illinois (2-10, 0-8, -54)
New Mexico State (1-10, 0-5, -54)
Eastern Michigan (2-10, 1-7, -55)
Tulane (2-10, 2-6, -58)
Akron (1-11, 0-8, -60)
Massachusetts (1-11, 1-7, -61)
Idaho (1-11, 1-5, -62)
UNLV (2-11, 2-6, -63)
Southern Miss (0-12, 0-8, -68)
2) Florida (11-1, 7-1, +18)
3) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +17)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Stanford (10-2, 8-1, +17)
6) Georgia (11-1, 7-1, +14)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
9) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Kent State (11-1, 8-0, +9)
14) Florida State (10-2, 7-1, +7)
15) Oregon State (8-3, 6-3, +5)
16) UCLA (9-3, 6-3, +5)
17) Northern Illinois (11-1, 8-0, +5)
18) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
19) Nebraska (10-2, 7-1, +3)
20) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
21) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1)
22) Rutgers (9-2, 5-1, 0)
23) Utah State (10-2, 6-0, -1)
24) Texas (8-3, 5-3, -2)
25) Michigan (8-4, 6-2, -2)
Ball State (9-3, 6-2, -2)
Louisville (9-2, 4-2, -3)
Washington (7-5, 5-4, -5)
Arkansas State (8-3, 6-1, -5)
Cincinnati (8-3, 3-2, -5)
Vanderbilt (8-4, 5-3, -5)
Fresno State (9-3, 7-1, -5)
Arizona (7-5, 4-5, -6)
Oklahoma State (7-4, 5-3, -6)
San Diego State (9-3, 7-1, -6)
TCU (7-4, 4-4, -6)
USC (7-5, 5-4, -7)
Toledo (8-3, 5-2, -7)
Middle Tennessee State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Louisiana Tech (9-3, 4-2, -8)
Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5, -8)
Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4, -8)
Tulsa (9-3, 6-1, -9)
Northwestern (9-3, 5-3, -9)
Penn State (8-4, 6-2, -9)
UCF (8-3, 5-1, -10)
Louisiana-Monroe (7-4, 5-2, -11)
Syracuse (7-5, 5-2, -11)
Ohio (8-4, 4-4, -12)
Bowling Green (8-4, 6-2, -12)
West Virginia (6-5, 3-5, -12)
Arizona State (7-5, 5-4, -13)
Miami (FL) (7-5, 5-3, -13)
Brigham Young (7-5, 0-0, -13)
East Carolina (8-4, 7-1, -14)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
North Carolina (8-4, 5-3, -15)
Mississippi (6-6, 3-5, -16)
North Carolina State (7-5, 4-4, -16)
Texas-San Antonio (8-4, 3-3, -16)
Baylor (6-5, 3-5, -16)
Temple (4-7, 2-5, -17)
Iowa State (6-6, 3-6, -17)
Nevada (7-4, 4-3, -17)
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Western Kentucky (7-5, 4-4, -18)
Wisconsin (7-5, 4-4, -19)
Missouri (5-7, 2-6, -21)
Pittsburgh (5-6, 2-4, -21)
Duke (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Michigan State (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Georgia Tech (6-6, 5-3, -25)
Tennessee (5-7, 1-7, -25)
Purdue (6-6, 3-5, -25)
Central Michigan (6-6, 4-4, -25)
Connecticut (5-6, 2-4, -26)
Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4, -27)
Minnesota (6-6, 2-6, -29)
Arkansas (4-8, 2-6, -29)
Rice (5-6, 3-4, -29)
Air Force (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Utah (5-7, 3-6, -30)
SMU (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Wake Forest (5-7, 3-5, -31)
North Texas (4-7, 3-4, -31)
Auburn (3-9, 0-8, -32)
Houston (4-7, 4-4, -33)
Troy (5-7, 3-5, -35)
South Florida (3-8, 1-4, -36)
Marshall (5-7, 4-4, -36)
Miami (OH) (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Buffalo (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Florida Atlantic (3-8, 2-5, -37)
Washington State (3-9, 1-8, -37)
Western Michigan (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Virginia (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Indiana (4-8, 2-6, -39)
Maryland (4-8, 2-6, -39)
Texas State (3-8, 1-4, -40)
Iowa (4-8, 2-6, -41)
Wyoming (4-8, 3-5, -42)
California (3-9, 2-7, -39)
New Mexico (4-8, 1-6, -40)
UAB (3-8, 2-5, -43)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Colorado State (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Florida International (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Memphis (4-8, 4-4, -44)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Kentucky (2-10, 0-8, -47)
Hawaii (2-9, 1-7, -49)
South Alabama (2-9, 1-6, -50)
Army (2-9, 0-0, -50)
Boston College (2-10, 1-7, -51)
Colorado (1-11, 1-8, -54)
Illinois (2-10, 0-8, -54)
New Mexico State (1-10, 0-5, -54)
Eastern Michigan (2-10, 1-7, -55)
Tulane (2-10, 2-6, -58)
Akron (1-11, 0-8, -60)
Massachusetts (1-11, 1-7, -61)
Idaho (1-11, 1-5, -62)
UNLV (2-11, 2-6, -63)
Southern Miss (0-12, 0-8, -68)
Friday, November 23, 2012
Strengths of Schedule
Here's my Top 25's Strengths of Schedule:
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Some of my observations:
- Stanford has played a crazy hard schedule, which is why I think they ought to be ranked ahead of Oregon for the time being. They are 3-2 against My Top 25, with a win over one-loss Oregon and a loss to undefeated Notre Dame. Imagine the conversations we would be having if they beaten either Notre Dame or Washington. Their SoS is only going to rise, playing UCLA once more, maybe twice more.
- The SEC is the toughest conference, followed closely by the Pac-12, with Alabama, LSU, and Florida all having very hard schedules. The biggest exception is Georgia, who has one quality win, over Florida. Other than that, they have exactly one win over a team with a winning record, 7-4 Vanderbilt. If Georgia gets to the BCS, this will be a big issue.
- I was surprised at how weak UCLA's schedule is, despite wins over Nebraska and USC. They'll get a big boost after they play Stanford, but they also lucked out by avoiding both Oregon and Washington this year.
- What claim will the winner of Florida-Florida State have to the BCS? FSU's schedule looks like poop, with 2 FCS teams and only one team - Clemson - guaranteed to win more than six games. The Massey computer right now has the Seminoles 27th, behind teams like 8-3 Northwestern and 7-4 Vanderbilt. They probably can't get to the BCS game, as they would remain behind Notre Dame even if they lose. Florida, on the other hand, already has the hardest schedule of all 1-loss teams, and are already #2 in the Massey computer. If they win and Notre Dame loses, the voters would have to move en masse to Oregon or Kansas State (or Notre Dame) in order to avoid an all-SEC championship.
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| 1) Notre Dame | -14.54545455 | ||||||
| 2) Alabama | -16.63636364 | ||||||
| 3) Georgia | -23 | ||||||
| 4) Florida | -12.90909091 | ||||||
| 5) Stanford | -9.727272727 | ||||||
| 6) Oregon | -18.90909091 | ||||||
| 7) Kansas State | -18.63636364 | ||||||
| 8) LSU | -13.90909091 | ||||||
| 9) Texas A&M | -18.27272727 | ||||||
| 10) Ohio State | -24.90909091 | ||||||
| 11) Oklahoma | -15.9 | ||||||
| 12) Florida State | -30.27272727 | ||||||
| 13) Kent State | -33.81818182 | ||||||
| 14) Oregon State | -12.4 | ||||||
| 15) South Carolina | -18.54545455 | ||||||
| 16) Rutgers | -26.8 | ||||||
| 17) Clemson | -25.36363636 | ||||||
| 18) UCLA | -20.90909091 | ||||||
| 19) Texas | -17.6 | ||||||
| 20) Northern Illinois | -37.45454545 | ||||||
| 21) Louisville | -30 | ||||||
| 22) Nebraska | -17.18181818 | ||||||
| 23) Boise State | -32.63636364 | ||||||
| 24) Washington | -13.72727273 | ||||||
| 25) San Jose State | -26 | And here it is in order of SoS: |
| 5) Stanford | -9.727272727 | Pac-12 |
| 14) Oregon State | -12.4 | Pac-12 |
| 4) Florida | -12.90909091 | SEC |
| 24) Washington | -13.72727273 | Pac-12 |
| 8) LSU | -13.90909091 | SEC |
| 1) Notre Dame | -14.54545455 | Independent |
| 11) Oklahoma | -15.9 | Big 12 |
| 2) Alabama | -16.63636364 | SEC |
| 22) Nebraska | -17.18181818 | Big Ten |
| 19) Texas | -17.6 | Big 12 |
| 9) Texas A&M | -18.27272727 | SEC |
| 15) South Carolina | -18.54545455 | SEC |
| 7) Kansas State | -18.63636364 | Big 12 |
| 6) Oregon | -18.90909091 | Pac-12 |
| 18) UCLA | -20.90909091 | Pac-12 |
| 3) Georgia | -23 | SEC |
| 10) Ohio State | -24.90909091 | Big Ten |
| 17) Clemson | -25.36363636 | ACC |
| 25) San Jose State | -26 | WAC |
| 16) Rutgers | -26.8 | Big East |
| 21) Louisville | -30 | Big East |
| 12) Florida State | -30.27272727 | ACC |
| 23) Boise State | -32.63636364 | MWC |
| 13) Kent State | -33.81818182 | MAC |
| 20) Northern Illinois | -37.45454545 | MAC |
Some of my observations:
- Stanford has played a crazy hard schedule, which is why I think they ought to be ranked ahead of Oregon for the time being. They are 3-2 against My Top 25, with a win over one-loss Oregon and a loss to undefeated Notre Dame. Imagine the conversations we would be having if they beaten either Notre Dame or Washington. Their SoS is only going to rise, playing UCLA once more, maybe twice more.
- The SEC is the toughest conference, followed closely by the Pac-12, with Alabama, LSU, and Florida all having very hard schedules. The biggest exception is Georgia, who has one quality win, over Florida. Other than that, they have exactly one win over a team with a winning record, 7-4 Vanderbilt. If Georgia gets to the BCS, this will be a big issue.
- I was surprised at how weak UCLA's schedule is, despite wins over Nebraska and USC. They'll get a big boost after they play Stanford, but they also lucked out by avoiding both Oregon and Washington this year.
- What claim will the winner of Florida-Florida State have to the BCS? FSU's schedule looks like poop, with 2 FCS teams and only one team - Clemson - guaranteed to win more than six games. The Massey computer right now has the Seminoles 27th, behind teams like 8-3 Northwestern and 7-4 Vanderbilt. They probably can't get to the BCS game, as they would remain behind Notre Dame even if they lose. Florida, on the other hand, already has the hardest schedule of all 1-loss teams, and are already #2 in the Massey computer. If they win and Notre Dame loses, the voters would have to move en masse to Oregon or Kansas State (or Notre Dame) in order to avoid an all-SEC championship.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Scenario #3: The One That I Want
Scenario #3: The One That I Want
This is the most likely scenario that gets the Ducks in the National Championship against Alabama. It entails several outcomes of varying probability. In the Pac-12, the Ducks beat the Beavers and UCLA upsets Stanford, and then Oregon beats UCLA for the Pac-12 championship. Then, Notre Dame loses at USC. These, on their own, might be enough to get Oregon into the BCS game. However, I added a few extra insurers: Kansas State loses a second game to Texas, and Florida State beats Florida, ending whatever (slim) chances they had of getting back into the championship. I still have Alabama beating Georgia for the SEC championship. In the Big Ten, I bail out the Rose Bowl by having two B1G upsets: Iowa over Nebraska, and Michigan over Ohio State, then Michigan over Wisconsin in the B1G championship. This lets them avoid either a UCLA-Nebraska rematch or UCLA- (8-5) Wisconsin.
BCS: #1 Alabama vs #2 Oregon
Rose: #8 UCLA vs #18 Michigan
Fiesta: #10 Oklahoma vs Nebraska
Sugar: #4 Notre Dame vs #6 LSU
Orange: #3 Florida State vs #16 Rutgers
Post-Script: After looking at the results, the Fiesta is in a tight spot. It takes Big 12 Champ Oklahoma, but can't really match them up against anyone. They can't pick from the SEC (Georgia), the Pac-12 (Stanford), or the Big 12 (Texas). The Sugar Bowl will surely snatch Notre Dame right up. That leaves Big East champ Rutgers from New Jersey, or ACC runner-up Clemson from South Carolina. So I'll say that the Fiesta says screw it and takes 9-3 Nebraska, and matches them up against their old rivals.
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Oregon (12-1, 9-1, +22)
3) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
4) Notre Dame (11-1, 0-0, +13)
5) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
6) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
7) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) UCLA (10-3, 7-3, +11)
9) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
10) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
11) Stanford (9-3, 7-2, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Texas (10-2, 7-2, +10)
14) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
15) Kansas State (10-2, 7-2, +8)
16) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
17) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
18) Michigan (10-3, 8-1, +7)
19) Ohio State (11-1, 7-1, +5)
20) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
21) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) Arizona (8-4, 5-4, +1)
This is the most likely scenario that gets the Ducks in the National Championship against Alabama. It entails several outcomes of varying probability. In the Pac-12, the Ducks beat the Beavers and UCLA upsets Stanford, and then Oregon beats UCLA for the Pac-12 championship. Then, Notre Dame loses at USC. These, on their own, might be enough to get Oregon into the BCS game. However, I added a few extra insurers: Kansas State loses a second game to Texas, and Florida State beats Florida, ending whatever (slim) chances they had of getting back into the championship. I still have Alabama beating Georgia for the SEC championship. In the Big Ten, I bail out the Rose Bowl by having two B1G upsets: Iowa over Nebraska, and Michigan over Ohio State, then Michigan over Wisconsin in the B1G championship. This lets them avoid either a UCLA-Nebraska rematch or UCLA- (8-5) Wisconsin.
BCS: #1 Alabama vs #2 Oregon
Rose: #8 UCLA vs #18 Michigan
Fiesta: #10 Oklahoma vs Nebraska
Sugar: #4 Notre Dame vs #6 LSU
Orange: #3 Florida State vs #16 Rutgers
Post-Script: After looking at the results, the Fiesta is in a tight spot. It takes Big 12 Champ Oklahoma, but can't really match them up against anyone. They can't pick from the SEC (Georgia), the Pac-12 (Stanford), or the Big 12 (Texas). The Sugar Bowl will surely snatch Notre Dame right up. That leaves Big East champ Rutgers from New Jersey, or ACC runner-up Clemson from South Carolina. So I'll say that the Fiesta says screw it and takes 9-3 Nebraska, and matches them up against their old rivals.
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Oregon (12-1, 9-1, +22)
3) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
4) Notre Dame (11-1, 0-0, +13)
5) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
6) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
7) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) UCLA (10-3, 7-3, +11)
9) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
10) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
11) Stanford (9-3, 7-2, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Texas (10-2, 7-2, +10)
14) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
15) Kansas State (10-2, 7-2, +8)
16) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
17) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
18) Michigan (10-3, 8-1, +7)
19) Ohio State (11-1, 7-1, +5)
20) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
21) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) Arizona (8-4, 5-4, +1)
Monday, November 19, 2012
Power Rankings
Notre Dame (11-0, 0-0, +19) - Well, well, well, look who's left standing? While Kansas State and Oregon stumbled, the Irish took care of business, whooping 5-6 Wake Forest 38-0 at home. Notre Dame has one obstacle left in their way, USC. Despite being 7-4, the Trojans are a very dangerous team, and would love nothing more than taking out their frustrations by ruining Notre Dame's perfect season. But here's a thought: Could Notre Dame still get to the BCS even if they lose? They would have wins over Stanford, Oklahoma, and Michigan, all of whom are still eligible to win their conferences. The Ducks might not even win the Pac-12, and the Wildcats won't get a chance to win a conference championship game. And I believe that the voters will do everything they can to avoid an all-SEC championship game, after last year's snoozer.
Alabama (10-1, 6-1, +16) - I'm just going to do the whole SEC as one, as they won 49-0 over West Carolina (not a state), 23-0 over Jacksonville State (not a state), and 45-14 over Georgia Southern (maybe a cocktail? that would be a good bourbon drink.) The SEC champion is virtually guaranteed to play for the national championship, against Notre Dame if they beat 'SC. But what if the Irish lose? Would voters promote an 11-1 Florida team that will have just beaten the Seminoles? Would they take an 11-1 Oregon that didn't play for its own conference championship? 11-1 Notre Dame? Will they say screw it and have Alabama play Ohio State on a luxury liner in international waters, where NCAA sanctions don't apply? The possibilities are endless.
Stanford (9-2, 7-1, +14) - Say what you will, I do really like Stanford, especially their coach, David Shaw. When Jim Harbaugh was Stanford's coach, he was all bluster, and that worked well for him. Shaw however, is quiet and unassuming, spending all week talking up the Ducks, and then having his team prepared. The Cardinal ran their game plan and stuck to it, containing Oregon's running backs and settling for winning the field position game while waiting for their opportunities to score. Stanford is now in the weird position of needing to beat UCLA twice in order to win the Pac-12 and get to the Rose Bowl.
Oregon (10-1, 7-1, +13) - D'oh! The Ducks lost at home for the second season in a row, and I think this one will smart for a long time. It will restart the questions about Oregon's ability to beat teams with an elite "SEC" style of defense. It will raise questions about Chip Kelly's decisions to twice go for it on fourth down, leaving points on the board in a game that the Ducks ended up losing 14-17 in overtime. And why can't the Ducks get a field goal kicker!? Oregon is now on the outside looking in for not only the BCS, but also the Rose: They need to beat Oregon State and have Stanford lose to UCLA.
Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1, +9) - Oklahoma beat West Virginia 50-49 on a last second touchdown pass. Combined with Kansas State's loss, the Sooners' win keeps them alive in the Big 12. In order to win it, and its Fiesta Bowl bid, Oklahoma needs wins against Oklahoma State and TCU, and have Texas beat Kansas State. So, for one week, Sooner fans will become Texas fans. And, because I'm trying really hard to see the silver lining, there is a possibility for an Oregon-Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl this year.
Kent State (10-1, 7-0, +8) - The Kent State Golden Flashes defeated Bowling Green 31-24, and the MAC Championship is now set between them and Northern Illinois. Kent State's signature win this season was 35-23 at Rutgers (arguably the best team in the Big East), and their lone loss was 14-47 at Kentucky (arguably the worst team in the SEC).
Oregon State (8-2, 6-2, +7) - The Beavers steamrolled Cal 62-14 and, even though Oregon's loss might take some of the shine off, the Civil War game next week is still going to be huge. The Beavers can't get to the Pac-12 championship, but they could beat the Ducks and make it impossible for them to do so, and maybe a 10-2 Oregon State team would be just enough to get a BCS at-large berth. (Probably not, though.)
UCLA (9-2, 6-2, +6) - I have so much I want to say after UCLA'a 38-28 win over USC in the Battle of Los Angeles. It was UCLA's first win over USC since 2006, and one that clinched a berth in the Pac-12 championship, for reals this time. Johnathan Franklin rushed for 160 yards and 2 TDs, and - if the Big 12 is the conference of the quarterback - the Pac-12 is the conference of the running back. USC became the first pre-season No. 1 team since 1984 to lose 4 games. It was the first time it rained on UCLA-USC since 1961, also won by UCLA. Special teams! Matt Barkley threw two interceptions, the Trojans missed two field goals and had two blocked punts, and UCLA averaged 42 yards per punt compared to USC's 30. Also, how come good basketball teams like UCLA, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina, are blue, but good football teams like USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Florida State are all red?
Washington (7-4, 5-3, +1) - Welcome back Washington, the best 4-loss team in the country! Their 38-3 win over Colorado was their fourth in a row, and they are 2-2 against my top 25, 1-2 against my top 8. They finish up next week in the Apple Cup against Washington State, and could count the season as a success with a win and a good bowl berth, maybe the Sun Bowl against the ACC or the Holiday Bowl against the Big 12.
Alabama (10-1, 6-1, +16) - I'm just going to do the whole SEC as one, as they won 49-0 over West Carolina (not a state), 23-0 over Jacksonville State (not a state), and 45-14 over Georgia Southern (maybe a cocktail? that would be a good bourbon drink.) The SEC champion is virtually guaranteed to play for the national championship, against Notre Dame if they beat 'SC. But what if the Irish lose? Would voters promote an 11-1 Florida team that will have just beaten the Seminoles? Would they take an 11-1 Oregon that didn't play for its own conference championship? 11-1 Notre Dame? Will they say screw it and have Alabama play Ohio State on a luxury liner in international waters, where NCAA sanctions don't apply? The possibilities are endless.
Stanford (9-2, 7-1, +14) - Say what you will, I do really like Stanford, especially their coach, David Shaw. When Jim Harbaugh was Stanford's coach, he was all bluster, and that worked well for him. Shaw however, is quiet and unassuming, spending all week talking up the Ducks, and then having his team prepared. The Cardinal ran their game plan and stuck to it, containing Oregon's running backs and settling for winning the field position game while waiting for their opportunities to score. Stanford is now in the weird position of needing to beat UCLA twice in order to win the Pac-12 and get to the Rose Bowl.
Oregon (10-1, 7-1, +13) - D'oh! The Ducks lost at home for the second season in a row, and I think this one will smart for a long time. It will restart the questions about Oregon's ability to beat teams with an elite "SEC" style of defense. It will raise questions about Chip Kelly's decisions to twice go for it on fourth down, leaving points on the board in a game that the Ducks ended up losing 14-17 in overtime. And why can't the Ducks get a field goal kicker!? Oregon is now on the outside looking in for not only the BCS, but also the Rose: They need to beat Oregon State and have Stanford lose to UCLA.
Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1, +9) - Oklahoma beat West Virginia 50-49 on a last second touchdown pass. Combined with Kansas State's loss, the Sooners' win keeps them alive in the Big 12. In order to win it, and its Fiesta Bowl bid, Oklahoma needs wins against Oklahoma State and TCU, and have Texas beat Kansas State. So, for one week, Sooner fans will become Texas fans. And, because I'm trying really hard to see the silver lining, there is a possibility for an Oregon-Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl this year.
Kent State (10-1, 7-0, +8) - The Kent State Golden Flashes defeated Bowling Green 31-24, and the MAC Championship is now set between them and Northern Illinois. Kent State's signature win this season was 35-23 at Rutgers (arguably the best team in the Big East), and their lone loss was 14-47 at Kentucky (arguably the worst team in the SEC).
Oregon State (8-2, 6-2, +7) - The Beavers steamrolled Cal 62-14 and, even though Oregon's loss might take some of the shine off, the Civil War game next week is still going to be huge. The Beavers can't get to the Pac-12 championship, but they could beat the Ducks and make it impossible for them to do so, and maybe a 10-2 Oregon State team would be just enough to get a BCS at-large berth. (Probably not, though.)
UCLA (9-2, 6-2, +6) - I have so much I want to say after UCLA'a 38-28 win over USC in the Battle of Los Angeles. It was UCLA's first win over USC since 2006, and one that clinched a berth in the Pac-12 championship, for reals this time. Johnathan Franklin rushed for 160 yards and 2 TDs, and - if the Big 12 is the conference of the quarterback - the Pac-12 is the conference of the running back. USC became the first pre-season No. 1 team since 1984 to lose 4 games. It was the first time it rained on UCLA-USC since 1961, also won by UCLA. Special teams! Matt Barkley threw two interceptions, the Trojans missed two field goals and had two blocked punts, and UCLA averaged 42 yards per punt compared to USC's 30. Also, how come good basketball teams like UCLA, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina, are blue, but good football teams like USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Florida State are all red?
Washington (7-4, 5-3, +1) - Welcome back Washington, the best 4-loss team in the country! Their 38-3 win over Colorado was their fourth in a row, and they are 2-2 against my top 25, 1-2 against my top 8. They finish up next week in the Apple Cup against Washington State, and could count the season as a success with a win and a good bowl berth, maybe the Sun Bowl against the ACC or the Holiday Bowl against the Big 12.
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Bowl Predictions
(All rankings AP)
BCS National Championship: #1 Notre Dame vs. #2 Alabama
Rose: #11 Stanford vs. #17 Nebraska
Fiesta: #5 Oregon vs. #7 Kansas State
Sugar: #6 Florida vs. #14 Oklahoma
Orange: #10 Florida State vs. #21 Rutgers
Capital One: #8 LSU vs. #20 Michigan
Outback: #13 South Carolina vs. Wisconsin
Cotton: #9 Texas A&M vs. #18 Texas
Peach: #3 Georgia vs. #12 Clemson
Alamo: #16 Oregon State vs. #22 Oklahoma State
Insight: Texas Tech vs. Northwestern
Gator: #25 Mississippi State vs. Michigan State
Holiday: #15 UCLA vs. TCU
Russell Athletic: #19 Louisville vs. North Carolina State
Sun: USC vs. Miami (FL)
Belk: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Music City: Duke vs. Vanderbilt
Las Vegas: Washington vs. Boise State
Texas: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
Kraft Fight Hunger: Navy vs. Arizona
Pinstripe: West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Liberty: UCF vs. Mississippi*
Poinsettia: Brigham Young vs. Fresno State
Hawaii: Tulsa vs. Nevada
Armed Forces: Air Force vs. East Carolina
New Orleans: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Beef 'O' Brady's: Marshall vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Go-Daddy.com: #24 Northern Illinois vs. Middle Tennessee State
New Mexico: San Diego State vs. Arizona State
Little Caesar's Pizza: #23 Kent State vs. Purdue
Famous Idaho Potato: #25 Utah State vs. Toledo
Heart of Dallas: Baylor vs. Rice
BBVA Compass: Ohio vs. SMU*
BCS National Championship: #1 Notre Dame vs. #2 Alabama
Rose: #11 Stanford vs. #17 Nebraska
Fiesta: #5 Oregon vs. #7 Kansas State
Sugar: #6 Florida vs. #14 Oklahoma
Orange: #10 Florida State vs. #21 Rutgers
Capital One: #8 LSU vs. #20 Michigan
Outback: #13 South Carolina vs. Wisconsin
Cotton: #9 Texas A&M vs. #18 Texas
Peach: #3 Georgia vs. #12 Clemson
Alamo: #16 Oregon State vs. #22 Oklahoma State
Insight: Texas Tech vs. Northwestern
Gator: #25 Mississippi State vs. Michigan State
Holiday: #15 UCLA vs. TCU
Russell Athletic: #19 Louisville vs. North Carolina State
Sun: USC vs. Miami (FL)
Belk: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Music City: Duke vs. Vanderbilt
Las Vegas: Washington vs. Boise State
Texas: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
Kraft Fight Hunger: Navy vs. Arizona
Pinstripe: West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Liberty: UCF vs. Mississippi*
Poinsettia: Brigham Young vs. Fresno State
Hawaii: Tulsa vs. Nevada
Armed Forces: Air Force vs. East Carolina
New Orleans: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Beef 'O' Brady's: Marshall vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Go-Daddy.com: #24 Northern Illinois vs. Middle Tennessee State
New Mexico: San Diego State vs. Arizona State
Little Caesar's Pizza: #23 Kent State vs. Purdue
Famous Idaho Potato: #25 Utah State vs. Toledo
Heart of Dallas: Baylor vs. Rice
BBVA Compass: Ohio vs. SMU*
Scenario #2: The One Where Notre Dame Chokes
Scenario #2: The One Where Notre Dame Chokes
This is the disaster scenario. Everybody takes care of business except the Irish, who lose on the road to USC. Alabama takes their spot in the national championship, but against whom? The voters would want Oregon, except that, if Stanford beats UCLA, the Ducks won't even be the division champs, let alone Pac-12 champs. Florida State could be it, especially if they beat Florida, but right now the computers and the voters agree that the ACC is too weak to put up a one-loss champ. Stanford would have an impressive resume and be Pac-12 champs, but you couldn't put a 2-loss team in ahead of four one-loss teams. And Notre Dame could still be the choice, except that losing on the last day of the season to a 7-4 team looks really bad. So I'm saying: Kansas State. Even though they lost big to 5-6 Baylor, they would still be Big-12 champs, with wins over Texas and Oklahoma, and the computers really love the Big 12.
BCS National Championship: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Kansas State
Rose: #3 Stanford vs. #19 Nebraska
Fiesta: #4 Oregon vs. #12 Oklahoma - The Fiesta loves replacing K-State with Oklahoma. Hopefully, this game would generate big revenue, a billion points, and a little bad blood. Oklahoma might even be OK with playing in the Fiesta for the fourth time in seven years.
Sugar: #7 LSU vs. #6 Notre Dame - It's also possible that the Fiesta would pick Notre Dame instead of Oregon, but a) That would be a rematch of a game earlier this year, which bowls tend to try to avoid, and b) Geographically, the Fiesta Bowl makes more sense for the Ducks and the Sugar Bowl makes more sense for the Irish. It would be the first time either team played the Sugar Bowl since they played each other in 2007, and it would push LSU just ahead of Alabama for most ever appearances, 14-13.
Orange: #6 Florida State vs #14 Rutgers
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Kansas State (11-1, 8-1, +15)
3) Stanford (11-2, 9-1, +20)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
6) Notre Dame (11-1, 0-0, +13)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
9) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
12) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
13) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
14) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
15) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
16) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
17) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
18) UCLA (9-4, 6-4, +4)
19) Nebraska (11-2, 8-1, +4)
20) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
21) Texas (9-3, 6-3, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) USC (8-4, 5-4, 0)
This is the disaster scenario. Everybody takes care of business except the Irish, who lose on the road to USC. Alabama takes their spot in the national championship, but against whom? The voters would want Oregon, except that, if Stanford beats UCLA, the Ducks won't even be the division champs, let alone Pac-12 champs. Florida State could be it, especially if they beat Florida, but right now the computers and the voters agree that the ACC is too weak to put up a one-loss champ. Stanford would have an impressive resume and be Pac-12 champs, but you couldn't put a 2-loss team in ahead of four one-loss teams. And Notre Dame could still be the choice, except that losing on the last day of the season to a 7-4 team looks really bad. So I'm saying: Kansas State. Even though they lost big to 5-6 Baylor, they would still be Big-12 champs, with wins over Texas and Oklahoma, and the computers really love the Big 12.
BCS National Championship: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Kansas State
Rose: #3 Stanford vs. #19 Nebraska
Fiesta: #4 Oregon vs. #12 Oklahoma - The Fiesta loves replacing K-State with Oklahoma. Hopefully, this game would generate big revenue, a billion points, and a little bad blood. Oklahoma might even be OK with playing in the Fiesta for the fourth time in seven years.
Sugar: #7 LSU vs. #6 Notre Dame - It's also possible that the Fiesta would pick Notre Dame instead of Oregon, but a) That would be a rematch of a game earlier this year, which bowls tend to try to avoid, and b) Geographically, the Fiesta Bowl makes more sense for the Ducks and the Sugar Bowl makes more sense for the Irish. It would be the first time either team played the Sugar Bowl since they played each other in 2007, and it would push LSU just ahead of Alabama for most ever appearances, 14-13.
Orange: #6 Florida State vs #14 Rutgers
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Kansas State (11-1, 8-1, +15)
3) Stanford (11-2, 9-1, +20)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
6) Notre Dame (11-1, 0-0, +13)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
9) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
12) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
13) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
14) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
15) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
16) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
17) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
18) UCLA (9-4, 6-4, +4)
19) Nebraska (11-2, 8-1, +4)
20) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
21) Texas (9-3, 6-3, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) USC (8-4, 5-4, 0)
Scenario #1: Hold Serve
Scenario #1: Hold Serve
This is what I consider to be the most likely final BCS scenario. Alabama beats Georgia to win the SEC, and they meet Notre Dame for the title, after the Irish beat USC to finish the season undefeated. Stanford beats UCLA twice to win the Pac-12, and Nebraska beats Iowa and Wisconsin to win the Big Ten, and these two teams meet in the Rose Bowl. Kansas State beats Texas to win the Big-12, Florida State beats Florida and Georgia Tech to win the ACC, and Rutgers beats Louisville to win the Big East. I have Northern Illinois winning the MAC and finishing high enough to bust the BCS, but I doubt the actual BCS will agree with me, so I'll assume they won't get invited. So my final match-ups will be:
BCS National Championship: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Notre Dame
Rose: #3 Stanford vs. #19 Nebraska - A rematch of the 1941 Rose Bowl, which Stanford won 21-13.
Fiesta: #4 Oregon vs. #5 Kansas State - The Fiesta jumps to grab the one-loss Ducks and match them against Big 12 champ K-State, in the match-up of The Two Teams Who Blew It.
Sugar: #7 LSU vs. #12 Oklahoma - The Sugar would have 5 2-loss SEC teams to pick from. I think they would go with home state LSU, and by-pass two teams who would've ended their seasons with losses, Florida and Georgia. Then they piss off Jerry Jones and pick Oklahoma to be their opponents.
Orange: #6 Florida State vs #14 Rutgers
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Notre Dame (12-0, 0-0, +20)
3) Stanford (11-2, 9-1, +20)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Kansas State (11-1, 8-1, +15)
6) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
9) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
12) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
13) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
14) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
15) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
16) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
17) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
18) UCLA (9-4, 6-4, +4)
19) Nebraska (11-2, 8-1, +4)
20) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
21) Texas (9-3, 6-3, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) Louisville (10-2, 5-2, 0)
This is what I consider to be the most likely final BCS scenario. Alabama beats Georgia to win the SEC, and they meet Notre Dame for the title, after the Irish beat USC to finish the season undefeated. Stanford beats UCLA twice to win the Pac-12, and Nebraska beats Iowa and Wisconsin to win the Big Ten, and these two teams meet in the Rose Bowl. Kansas State beats Texas to win the Big-12, Florida State beats Florida and Georgia Tech to win the ACC, and Rutgers beats Louisville to win the Big East. I have Northern Illinois winning the MAC and finishing high enough to bust the BCS, but I doubt the actual BCS will agree with me, so I'll assume they won't get invited. So my final match-ups will be:
BCS National Championship: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Notre Dame
Rose: #3 Stanford vs. #19 Nebraska - A rematch of the 1941 Rose Bowl, which Stanford won 21-13.
Fiesta: #4 Oregon vs. #5 Kansas State - The Fiesta jumps to grab the one-loss Ducks and match them against Big 12 champ K-State, in the match-up of The Two Teams Who Blew It.
Sugar: #7 LSU vs. #12 Oklahoma - The Sugar would have 5 2-loss SEC teams to pick from. I think they would go with home state LSU, and by-pass two teams who would've ended their seasons with losses, Florida and Georgia. Then they piss off Jerry Jones and pick Oklahoma to be their opponents.
Orange: #6 Florida State vs #14 Rutgers
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Notre Dame (12-0, 0-0, +20)
3) Stanford (11-2, 9-1, +20)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Kansas State (11-1, 8-1, +15)
6) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
9) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
12) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
13) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
14) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
15) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
16) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
17) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
18) UCLA (9-4, 6-4, +4)
19) Nebraska (11-2, 8-1, +4)
20) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
21) Texas (9-3, 6-3, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) Louisville (10-2, 5-2, 0)
My Top 25
1) Notre Dame (11-0, 0-0, +19)
2) Alabama (10-1, 6-1, +16)
3) Georgia (10-1, 7-1, +13)
4) Florida (10-1, 7-1, +14)
5) Stanford (9-2, 7-1, +14)
6) Oregon (10-1, 7-1, +13)
7) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
8) LSU (9-2, 5-2, +12)
9) Texas A&M (9-2, 5-2, +12)
10) Ohio State (11-0, 7-0, +11)
11) Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1, +9)
12) Florida State (10-1, 7-1, +8)
13) Kent State (10-1, 7-0, +8)
14) Oregon State (8-2, 6-2, +7)
15) South Carolina (9-2, 6-2, +7)
16) Rutgers (9-1, 5-0, +6)
17) Clemson (10-1, 7-1, +6)
18) UCLA (9-2, 6-2, +6)
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Northern Illinois (10-1, 7-0, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Nebraska (9-2, 6-1, +2)
23) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1)
24) Washington (7-4, 5-3, +1)
25) San Jose State (9-2, 4-1, +1)
Michigan (8-3, 6-1, 0)
Arizona (7-4, 4-4, 0)
Texas Tech (7-4, 4-4, -2)
Mississippi State (8-3, 4-3, -2)
Utah State (9-2, 5-0, -2)
Louisiana Tech (9-2, 4-1, -3) Tulsa (9-2, 6-0, -3)
Ball State (8-3, 5-2, -3)
Oklahoma State (7-3, 5-2, -3)
Arkansas State (8-3, 6-1, -5)
USC (7-4, 5-4, -6)
Cincinnati (7-3, 2-2, -6)
Vanderbilt (7-4, 5-3, -6)
Fresno State (8-3, 6-1, -6)
Toledo (8-3, 5-2, -7)
San Diego State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Middle Tennessee State (7-3, 5-1, -8)
Ohio (8-3, 4-3, -9)
TCU (6-4, 3-4, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
UCF (8-3, 5-1, -10)
Northwestern (8-3, 4-3, -10)
Penn State (7-4, 5-2, -10)
Louisiana-Monroe (7-4, 5-2, -11)
Temple (4-6, 2-4, -11)
Syracuse (6-5, 4-2, -12)
Bowling Green (7-4, 5-2, -13)
West Virginia (5-5, 2-5, -13)
Wisconsin (7-4, 4-3, -13)
Western Kentucky (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Iowa State (4-5, 1-5, -13)
Arizona State (6-5, 4-4, -14)
Miami (FL) (6-5, 4-3, -14)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
East Carolina (7-4, 6-1, -15)
Duke (6-5, 3-4, -16)
North Carolina (7-4, 4-3, -16)
Nevada (7-4, 4-3, -17)
Mississippi (5-6, 2-5, -17)
North Carolina State (6-5, 3-4, -17)
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Texas-San Antonio (7-4, 2-3, -17)
Baylor (5-5, 2-5, -17)
Missouri (5-6, 2-5, -19)
Michigan State (5-6, 2-5, -23)
Minnesota (6-5, 2-5, -23)
Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4, -24)
Air Force (6-5, 5-2, -24)
Georgia Tech (6-5, 5-3, -24)
Wake Forest (5-6, 3-5, -25)
Tennessee (4-7, 0-7, -26)
Purdue (5-6, 2-5, -26)
Central Michigan (5-6, 3-4, -26)
Arkansas (4-7, 2-5, -27)
Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4, -27)
Connecticut (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Troy (5-6, 3-4, -29)
Rice (5-6, 3-4, -29)
South Florida (3-7, 1-3, -30)
Marshall (5-6, 4-3, -30)
Utah (4-7, 2-6, -31)
Miami (OH) (4-7, 3-4, -31)
North Texas (4-7, 3-4, -31)
SMU (5-6, 4-3, -31)
Auburn (3-8, 0-7, -31)
Buffalo (4-7, 3-4, -31)
Houston (4-7, 4-4, -33)
Indiana (4-7, 2-5, -33)
Maryland (4-7, 2-5, -33)
Texas State (3-7, 1-3, -34)
Iowa (4-7, 2-5, -36)
Wyoming (4-7, 3-4, -36)
Florida Atlantic (3-8, 2-5, -37)
Western Michigan (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Virginia (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Washington State (2-9, 0-8, -39)
California (3-9, 2-7, -39)
New Mexico (4-8, 1-6, -40)
Kentucky (2-9, 0-7, -41)
UAB (3-8, 2-5, -43)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Colorado State (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Florida International (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Boston College (2-9, 1-6, -45)
Memphis (3-8, 3-4, -45)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Colorado (1-10, 1-7, -48)
Illinois (2-9, 0-7, -48)
New Mexico State (1-9, 0-5, -48)
Hawaii (1-9, 0-5, -50)
South Alabama (2-9, 1-6, -50)
Army (2-9, 0-0, -50)
Tulane (2-9, 2-7, -52)
Eastern Michigan (2-9, 1-6, -51)
Akron (1-10, 0-7, -54)
Massachusetts (1-10, 1-6, -55)
Idaho (1-10, 1-4, -56)
Southern Miss (0-10, 0-6, -56)
UNLV (2-10, 2-5, -57)
2) Alabama (10-1, 6-1, +16)
3) Georgia (10-1, 7-1, +13)
4) Florida (10-1, 7-1, +14)
5) Stanford (9-2, 7-1, +14)
6) Oregon (10-1, 7-1, +13)
7) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
8) LSU (9-2, 5-2, +12)
9) Texas A&M (9-2, 5-2, +12)
10) Ohio State (11-0, 7-0, +11)
11) Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1, +9)
12) Florida State (10-1, 7-1, +8)
13) Kent State (10-1, 7-0, +8)
14) Oregon State (8-2, 6-2, +7)
15) South Carolina (9-2, 6-2, +7)
16) Rutgers (9-1, 5-0, +6)
17) Clemson (10-1, 7-1, +6)
18) UCLA (9-2, 6-2, +6)
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Northern Illinois (10-1, 7-0, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Nebraska (9-2, 6-1, +2)
23) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1)
24) Washington (7-4, 5-3, +1)
25) San Jose State (9-2, 4-1, +1)
Michigan (8-3, 6-1, 0)
Arizona (7-4, 4-4, 0)
Texas Tech (7-4, 4-4, -2)
Mississippi State (8-3, 4-3, -2)
Utah State (9-2, 5-0, -2)
Louisiana Tech (9-2, 4-1, -3) Tulsa (9-2, 6-0, -3)
Ball State (8-3, 5-2, -3)
Oklahoma State (7-3, 5-2, -3)
Arkansas State (8-3, 6-1, -5)
USC (7-4, 5-4, -6)
Cincinnati (7-3, 2-2, -6)
Vanderbilt (7-4, 5-3, -6)
Fresno State (8-3, 6-1, -6)
Toledo (8-3, 5-2, -7)
San Diego State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Middle Tennessee State (7-3, 5-1, -8)
Ohio (8-3, 4-3, -9)
TCU (6-4, 3-4, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
UCF (8-3, 5-1, -10)
Northwestern (8-3, 4-3, -10)
Penn State (7-4, 5-2, -10)
Louisiana-Monroe (7-4, 5-2, -11)
Temple (4-6, 2-4, -11)
Syracuse (6-5, 4-2, -12)
Bowling Green (7-4, 5-2, -13)
West Virginia (5-5, 2-5, -13)
Wisconsin (7-4, 4-3, -13)
Western Kentucky (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Iowa State (4-5, 1-5, -13)
Arizona State (6-5, 4-4, -14)
Miami (FL) (6-5, 4-3, -14)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
East Carolina (7-4, 6-1, -15)
Duke (6-5, 3-4, -16)
North Carolina (7-4, 4-3, -16)
Nevada (7-4, 4-3, -17)
Mississippi (5-6, 2-5, -17)
North Carolina State (6-5, 3-4, -17)
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Texas-San Antonio (7-4, 2-3, -17)
Baylor (5-5, 2-5, -17)
Missouri (5-6, 2-5, -19)
Michigan State (5-6, 2-5, -23)
Minnesota (6-5, 2-5, -23)
Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4, -24)
Air Force (6-5, 5-2, -24)
Georgia Tech (6-5, 5-3, -24)
Wake Forest (5-6, 3-5, -25)
Tennessee (4-7, 0-7, -26)
Purdue (5-6, 2-5, -26)
Central Michigan (5-6, 3-4, -26)
Arkansas (4-7, 2-5, -27)
Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4, -27)
Connecticut (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Troy (5-6, 3-4, -29)
Rice (5-6, 3-4, -29)
South Florida (3-7, 1-3, -30)
Marshall (5-6, 4-3, -30)
Utah (4-7, 2-6, -31)
Miami (OH) (4-7, 3-4, -31)
North Texas (4-7, 3-4, -31)
SMU (5-6, 4-3, -31)
Auburn (3-8, 0-7, -31)
Buffalo (4-7, 3-4, -31)
Houston (4-7, 4-4, -33)
Indiana (4-7, 2-5, -33)
Maryland (4-7, 2-5, -33)
Texas State (3-7, 1-3, -34)
Iowa (4-7, 2-5, -36)
Wyoming (4-7, 3-4, -36)
Florida Atlantic (3-8, 2-5, -37)
Western Michigan (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Virginia (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Washington State (2-9, 0-8, -39)
California (3-9, 2-7, -39)
New Mexico (4-8, 1-6, -40)
Kentucky (2-9, 0-7, -41)
UAB (3-8, 2-5, -43)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Colorado State (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Florida International (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Boston College (2-9, 1-6, -45)
Memphis (3-8, 3-4, -45)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Colorado (1-10, 1-7, -48)
Illinois (2-9, 0-7, -48)
New Mexico State (1-9, 0-5, -48)
Hawaii (1-9, 0-5, -50)
South Alabama (2-9, 1-6, -50)
Army (2-9, 0-0, -50)
Tulane (2-9, 2-7, -52)
Eastern Michigan (2-9, 1-6, -51)
Akron (1-10, 0-7, -54)
Massachusetts (1-10, 1-6, -55)
Idaho (1-10, 1-4, -56)
Southern Miss (0-10, 0-6, -56)
UNLV (2-10, 2-5, -57)
Monday, November 12, 2012
Power Rankings
1) Notre Dame (10-0, 0-0, +18) - Notre Dame looked much better this week, steamrolling 2-win Boston College 21-6. The Irish get another ACC team, Wake Forest, before finishing their season at USC. The AP has Notre Dame third, behind Oregon and K-State, and most experts agree that, if all three win-out, the Irish will be on the outside looking in. In that case, it is very likely that Notre Dame could be sent to the Rose Bowl. If the Ducks get to the NC, that frees up the Rose Bowl from their contractual obligation to the Pac-12. They tend to prefer sticking with their conference affiliates, but if it's a choice between 9-3 Stanford, 9-3 Oregon State, 8-5 USC, or 12-0 Notre Dame, they would probably invite the Irish. (For the first time since 1925!)
2) Kansas State (10-0, 7-0, +18)
3) Oregon (10-0, 7-0, +16) - Being an Oregon fan kind of skews your perspective of reality. Last night, I was watching the Ducks against Cal, thinking to myself, "Man, we're playing terribly!" This was the third quarter, when Oregon was up 24-17 and Cal was driving. Two Bears turnovers and five minutes later, it was 45-17, and Oregon coasted to the win, 59-17, although it still felt like the Ducks were doing poorly. There were plenty of bad signs for the Ducks; nagging injuries to Barner and Mariota, the decimation of their entire defensive line, and the allowance of 236 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per rush. Next week is Stanford, who has a much, much better running back than Cal.
4) Alabama (9-1, 6-1, +15) - Down goes 'Bama! After waiting 10 weeks to reach my #1, the Tide promptly give it right away, losing at home to Texas A&M, 29-24. Andy Staples seems to think that this loss will end the SEC's six year championship run, but I am not so sure. Alabama has games left against FCS West Carolina and might-as-well-be-FCS Auburn, and if they win those, they're in the SEC Championship against Georgia. Remember; all of the teams ahead of them have very losable games left in the schedule. And it would be a little anti-climactic if the SEC's title streak ended without a loss.
5) Georgia (9-1, 7-1, +12)
6) Florida (9-1, 7-1, +13) - The Gators needed to block a punt and return it for a touchdown with :02 left in order to avoid overtime and beat the mighty Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 27-20. Although Alabama's loss probably ended any slim chances Florida had of getting to the BCS-NC, they're still in a position to grab a BCS-at large bid, especially if they beat Florida State on Nov 24th.
7) LSU (8-2, 4-2, +11)
8) Texas A&M (8-2, 5-2, +11)
9) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
10) Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1, +8)
11) Stanford (8-2, 6-1, +8) - I took my teacher certification tests on Saturday, and got home just as the Stanford players began celebrating their 27-23 win over Oregon State, during which freshman QB Kevin Hogan was 22/29 for 254 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. The win probably goes to the Cardinal defense, however, who held Oregon State to only 3 points on 4 Stanford turnovers. Next week, Stanford is at Oregon, and will be trying to replicate Texas A&M's success by pulling off the upset. If I were coach David Shaw, I would just run right at the Ducks, and try to make their defense get a stop while draining the clock and keeping their offense off the field. Easier said than done, though.
12) Florida State (9-1, 6-1, +7)
13) Kent State (9-1, 6-0, +7)
14) Oregon State (7-2, 5-2, +6)
15) South Carolina (8-2, 6-2 , +6)
16) Rutgers (8-1, 4-0, +5)
17) Clemson (9-1, 6-1, +5)
18) UCLA (8-2, 5-2, +5) - UCLA's 44-36 win over Washington St., combined with USC's 38-17 win over Arizona St., means that the winner of next week's Battle for Los Angeles will win the Pac-12 South and get to play for the Rose Bowl. The Bruins, actually, still have a viable shot at an at-large bid, if they beat USC and Stanford, and maybe have Notre Dame lose to USC and Clemson lose to South Carolina. Of course, I doubt that the Rose Bowl would like to host a rematch between AP #17 UCLA and #16 Nebraska.
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
23) Louisiana Tech (9-1, 4-0, +3)
24) Nebraska (8-2, 5-1, +1)
25) Boise State (8-2, 4-1, 0)
2) Kansas State (10-0, 7-0, +18)
3) Oregon (10-0, 7-0, +16) - Being an Oregon fan kind of skews your perspective of reality. Last night, I was watching the Ducks against Cal, thinking to myself, "Man, we're playing terribly!" This was the third quarter, when Oregon was up 24-17 and Cal was driving. Two Bears turnovers and five minutes later, it was 45-17, and Oregon coasted to the win, 59-17, although it still felt like the Ducks were doing poorly. There were plenty of bad signs for the Ducks; nagging injuries to Barner and Mariota, the decimation of their entire defensive line, and the allowance of 236 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per rush. Next week is Stanford, who has a much, much better running back than Cal.
4) Alabama (9-1, 6-1, +15) - Down goes 'Bama! After waiting 10 weeks to reach my #1, the Tide promptly give it right away, losing at home to Texas A&M, 29-24. Andy Staples seems to think that this loss will end the SEC's six year championship run, but I am not so sure. Alabama has games left against FCS West Carolina and might-as-well-be-FCS Auburn, and if they win those, they're in the SEC Championship against Georgia. Remember; all of the teams ahead of them have very losable games left in the schedule. And it would be a little anti-climactic if the SEC's title streak ended without a loss.
5) Georgia (9-1, 7-1, +12)
6) Florida (9-1, 7-1, +13) - The Gators needed to block a punt and return it for a touchdown with :02 left in order to avoid overtime and beat the mighty Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 27-20. Although Alabama's loss probably ended any slim chances Florida had of getting to the BCS-NC, they're still in a position to grab a BCS-at large bid, especially if they beat Florida State on Nov 24th.
7) LSU (8-2, 4-2, +11)
8) Texas A&M (8-2, 5-2, +11)
9) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
10) Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1, +8)
11) Stanford (8-2, 6-1, +8) - I took my teacher certification tests on Saturday, and got home just as the Stanford players began celebrating their 27-23 win over Oregon State, during which freshman QB Kevin Hogan was 22/29 for 254 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. The win probably goes to the Cardinal defense, however, who held Oregon State to only 3 points on 4 Stanford turnovers. Next week, Stanford is at Oregon, and will be trying to replicate Texas A&M's success by pulling off the upset. If I were coach David Shaw, I would just run right at the Ducks, and try to make their defense get a stop while draining the clock and keeping their offense off the field. Easier said than done, though.
12) Florida State (9-1, 6-1, +7)
13) Kent State (9-1, 6-0, +7)
14) Oregon State (7-2, 5-2, +6)
15) South Carolina (8-2, 6-2 , +6)
16) Rutgers (8-1, 4-0, +5)
17) Clemson (9-1, 6-1, +5)
18) UCLA (8-2, 5-2, +5) - UCLA's 44-36 win over Washington St., combined with USC's 38-17 win over Arizona St., means that the winner of next week's Battle for Los Angeles will win the Pac-12 South and get to play for the Rose Bowl. The Bruins, actually, still have a viable shot at an at-large bid, if they beat USC and Stanford, and maybe have Notre Dame lose to USC and Clemson lose to South Carolina. Of course, I doubt that the Rose Bowl would like to host a rematch between AP #17 UCLA and #16 Nebraska.
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
23) Louisiana Tech (9-1, 4-0, +3)
24) Nebraska (8-2, 5-1, +1)
25) Boise State (8-2, 4-1, 0)
Saturday, November 10, 2012
My Top 25
1) Notre Dame (10-0, 0-0, +18)
2) Kansas State (10-0, 7-0, +18)
3) Oregon (10-0, 7-0, +16)
4) Alabama (9-1, 6-1, +15)
5) Georgia (9-1, 7-1, +12)
6) Florida (9-1, 7-1, +13)
7) LSU (8-2, 4-2, +11)
8) Texas A&M (8-2, 5-2, +11)
9) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
10) Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1, +8)
11) Stanford (8-2, 6-1, +8)
12) Florida State (9-1, 6-1, +7)
13) Kent State (9-1, 6-0, +7)
14) Oregon State (7-2, 5-2, +6)
15) South Carolina (8-2, 6-2 , +6)
16) Rutgers (8-1, 4-0, +5)
17) Clemson (9-1, 6-1, +5)
18) UCLA (8-2, 5-2, +5)
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
23) Louisiana Tech (9-1, 4-0, +3)
24) Nebraska (8-2, 5-1, +1)
25) Boise State (8-2, 4-1, 0)
San Jose State (8-2, 6-1, 0)
Washington (6-4, 4-3, 0)
Michigan (7-3, 5-1, -1)
Toledo (8-2, 5-1, -2)
Arizona (6-4, 2-4, -2)
USC (7-3, 5-3, -2)
Cincinnati (7-2, 2-1, -2)
Ohio (8-2, 4-2, -3)
Mississippi State (7-3, 3-3, -3)
Utah State (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Tulsa (8-2, 5-0, -4)
UCF (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Ball State (7-3, 4-2, -4)
Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2, -6)
Arkansas State (7-3, 5-1, -6)
Fresno State (7-3, 5-1, -7)
San Diego State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Vanderbilt (6-4, 4-3, -7)
Syracuse (4-4, 3-1, -8)
TCU (6-4, 3-4, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
Middle Tennessee State (6-3, 4-1, -9)
Duke (6-4, 3-3, -10)
Bowling Green (7-3, 5-1, -10)
West Virginia (5-4, 2-4, -11)
Northwestern (7-3, 3-3, -11)
Penn State (6-4, 4-2, -11)
Wisconsin (7-3, 4-2, -11)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-4, 4-2, -12)
Temple (3-6, 2-4, -12)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Western Kentucky (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Iowa State (4-5, 1-5, -13)
North Carolina State (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Missouri (5-5, 2-5, -13)
Arizona State (5-5, 3-4, -15)
Mississippi (5-5, 2-4, -15)
Miami (FL) (5-5, 4-3, -15)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
East Carolina (6-4, 5-1, -16)
North Carolina (6-4, 3-3, -17)
Michigan State (5-5, 2-4, -17)
Navy (6-4, 0-0, -18)
South Florida (3-5, 1-3, -18)
Texas-San Antonio (6-4, 1-3, -18)
Minnesota (6-4, 2-4, -18)
Tennessee (4-6, 0-6, -20)
Arkansas (4-6, 2-4, -21)
Baylor (4-5, 1-5, -23)
Troy (5-5, 3-3, -23)
Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4, -24)
Wake Forest (5-5, 3-5, -24)
Utah (4-6, 2-5, -25)
Air Force (5-5, 4-2, -25)
Miami (OH) (4-6, 3-3, -25)
North Texas (4-6, 3-3, -25)
SMU (5-5, 4-2, -25)
Georgia Tech (5-5, 4-3, -25)
Houston (4-6, 4-3, -27)
Indiana (4-6, 2-4, -27)
Purdue (4-6, 1-5, -27)
Central Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -27)
Texas State (3-6, 0-3, -28)
Virginia Tech (4-6, 2-4, -28)
Connecticut (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Iowa (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Maryland (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Rice (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Marshall (4-6, 3-3, -31)
Florida Atlantic (3-7, 2-4, -31)
Auburn (2-8, 0-7, -32)
Western Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Virginia (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Washington State (2-8, 0-7, -33)
Buffalo (2-7, 1-4,-33)
New Mexico (4-7, 1-5, -34)
California (3-8, 2-6, -36)
UAB (3-7, 2-4, -37)
Wyoming (3-7, 2-4, -37)
Boston College (2-8, 1-5, -39)
Colorado State (3-7, 2-4, -39)
Colorado (1-9, 1-6, -42)
Illinois (2-8, 0-6, -42)
Kentucky (1-9, 0-7, -42)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Hawaii (1-8, 0-5, -44)
South Alabama (2-8, 1-5, -44)
Army (2-8, 0-0, -44)
Idaho (1-8, 1-2, -44)
Florida International (2-8, 1-5, -45)
Tulane (2-8, 2-6, -46)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Memphis (2-8, 2-4, -46)
New Mexico State (1-9, 0-5, -48)
Massachusetts (1-9, 1-5, -49)
UNLV (2-9, 2-4, -51)
Eastern Michigan (1-9, 0-6, -52)
Akron (1-10, 0-7, -54)
Southern Miss (0-10, 0-6, -56)
2) Kansas State (10-0, 7-0, +18)
3) Oregon (10-0, 7-0, +16)
4) Alabama (9-1, 6-1, +15)
5) Georgia (9-1, 7-1, +12)
6) Florida (9-1, 7-1, +13)
7) LSU (8-2, 4-2, +11)
8) Texas A&M (8-2, 5-2, +11)
9) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
10) Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1, +8)
11) Stanford (8-2, 6-1, +8)
12) Florida State (9-1, 6-1, +7)
13) Kent State (9-1, 6-0, +7)
14) Oregon State (7-2, 5-2, +6)
15) South Carolina (8-2, 6-2 , +6)
16) Rutgers (8-1, 4-0, +5)
17) Clemson (9-1, 6-1, +5)
18) UCLA (8-2, 5-2, +5)
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
23) Louisiana Tech (9-1, 4-0, +3)
24) Nebraska (8-2, 5-1, +1)
25) Boise State (8-2, 4-1, 0)
San Jose State (8-2, 6-1, 0)
Washington (6-4, 4-3, 0)
Michigan (7-3, 5-1, -1)
Toledo (8-2, 5-1, -2)
Arizona (6-4, 2-4, -2)
USC (7-3, 5-3, -2)
Cincinnati (7-2, 2-1, -2)
Ohio (8-2, 4-2, -3)
Mississippi State (7-3, 3-3, -3)
Utah State (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Tulsa (8-2, 5-0, -4)
UCF (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Ball State (7-3, 4-2, -4)
Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2, -6)
Arkansas State (7-3, 5-1, -6)
Fresno State (7-3, 5-1, -7)
San Diego State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Vanderbilt (6-4, 4-3, -7)
Syracuse (4-4, 3-1, -8)
TCU (6-4, 3-4, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
Middle Tennessee State (6-3, 4-1, -9)
Duke (6-4, 3-3, -10)
Bowling Green (7-3, 5-1, -10)
West Virginia (5-4, 2-4, -11)
Northwestern (7-3, 3-3, -11)
Penn State (6-4, 4-2, -11)
Wisconsin (7-3, 4-2, -11)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-4, 4-2, -12)
Temple (3-6, 2-4, -12)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Western Kentucky (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Iowa State (4-5, 1-5, -13)
North Carolina State (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Missouri (5-5, 2-5, -13)
Arizona State (5-5, 3-4, -15)
Mississippi (5-5, 2-4, -15)
Miami (FL) (5-5, 4-3, -15)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
East Carolina (6-4, 5-1, -16)
North Carolina (6-4, 3-3, -17)
Michigan State (5-5, 2-4, -17)
Navy (6-4, 0-0, -18)
South Florida (3-5, 1-3, -18)
Texas-San Antonio (6-4, 1-3, -18)
Minnesota (6-4, 2-4, -18)
Tennessee (4-6, 0-6, -20)
Arkansas (4-6, 2-4, -21)
Baylor (4-5, 1-5, -23)
Troy (5-5, 3-3, -23)
Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4, -24)
Wake Forest (5-5, 3-5, -24)
Utah (4-6, 2-5, -25)
Air Force (5-5, 4-2, -25)
Miami (OH) (4-6, 3-3, -25)
North Texas (4-6, 3-3, -25)
SMU (5-5, 4-2, -25)
Georgia Tech (5-5, 4-3, -25)
Houston (4-6, 4-3, -27)
Indiana (4-6, 2-4, -27)
Purdue (4-6, 1-5, -27)
Central Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -27)
Texas State (3-6, 0-3, -28)
Virginia Tech (4-6, 2-4, -28)
Connecticut (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Iowa (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Maryland (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Rice (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Marshall (4-6, 3-3, -31)
Florida Atlantic (3-7, 2-4, -31)
Auburn (2-8, 0-7, -32)
Western Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Virginia (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Washington State (2-8, 0-7, -33)
Buffalo (2-7, 1-4,-33)
New Mexico (4-7, 1-5, -34)
California (3-8, 2-6, -36)
UAB (3-7, 2-4, -37)
Wyoming (3-7, 2-4, -37)
Boston College (2-8, 1-5, -39)
Colorado State (3-7, 2-4, -39)
Colorado (1-9, 1-6, -42)
Illinois (2-8, 0-6, -42)
Kentucky (1-9, 0-7, -42)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Hawaii (1-8, 0-5, -44)
South Alabama (2-8, 1-5, -44)
Army (2-8, 0-0, -44)
Idaho (1-8, 1-2, -44)
Florida International (2-8, 1-5, -45)
Tulane (2-8, 2-6, -46)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Memphis (2-8, 2-4, -46)
New Mexico State (1-9, 0-5, -48)
Massachusetts (1-9, 1-5, -49)
UNLV (2-9, 2-4, -51)
Eastern Michigan (1-9, 0-6, -52)
Akron (1-10, 0-7, -54)
Southern Miss (0-10, 0-6, -56)
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Power Rankings
1) Alabama (9-0, 6-0, +18) - It's a little ironic that the game that finally elevates Alabama to my No. 1 is the one where they looked the most vulnerable, needing a 28-yard touchdown off a screen pass with 51 seconds left to win at LSU, 21-17. Alabama gave up 435 yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play, while gaining 331 yards on 6.4 ypp. The key for LSU's almost-win was time of possession, which they led by a whopping 39:15 to 20:45. This meant that Alabama's defenders lost a little gas at the end of the game, and allowed LSU to have two touchdown scoring drives in the second half. On the other hand, the Tigers botched a disastrous fake field goal in the first half, missed another in the second, and turned the ball over on downs in the 4th quarter. Sometimes, the team that wins is simply the team that doesn't make as many mistakes. Next week will be interesting, as the Tide host Texas A&M's high powered Big-12 style offense and their elite QB, Johnny Manziel.
2) Notre Dame (9-0, 0-0, +17) - OK, I am officially off the Notre Dame bandwagon. The Irish needed a furious comeback and a botched field goal to beat mighty 4-4 Pittsburgh 29-26 in triple overtime. I know that every championship team needs the football gods on their side at some point in the season, but not against a Big East also-ran.
Now, here's the thing. If, in August, you told me that Notre Dame would go 12-0 and beat Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC, I would say that they're an elite team and are in the National Championship, because I'm expecting at least 2 conference championships and 3 BCS bowl berths from those teams. But then you tell me that none of those teams win their conference, and only one (Oklahoma) will be playing in a BCS bowl. Just says something about how much pre-season expectations shape how we view the actual season.
3) Kansas State (9-0, 6-0, +17) - I really hope that Collin Klein is OK. The do-everything QB left Kansas State's 44-30 win over Oklahoma State with an unspecified knee injury and he is questionable for next week's game against TCU. The Wildcats need to win 2 out of their last 3 against TCU, Baylor, and Texas to win the Big 12 and go to the Fiesta Bowl, which they could do without Klein, because of their good defense and ability to control the ball. But their eyes are on a bigger prize right now. And I think they will need Klein at 100% to do that.
4) Oregon (9-0, 6-0, +15) - For the first time all season, I think I saw an Oregon team that belongs on the same field as Alabama in their 62-51 win at USC. Kenjon Barner had a historic day, rushing for 321 yards and 5 touchdowns, and the Ducks put up 730 yards of offense on 8.8 yards per play. And, even though they gave up 615 yards and 7.7 ypp to the Trojans, I was still impressed with Oregon's defense. They forced three first half turnovers, two of them in the red zone, and if it were not for one 75 yard Marquise Lee touchdown catch and one 82 yard Marquise Lee kickoff return, the game would not have been nearly as close. Something to note: There were two punts in the entire game, one by each team, 0 in the first half.
5) Georgia (8-1, 6-1, +11)
6) Florida (8-1, 7-1, +12) - The Gators needed a last minute interception in the endzone to defeat Missouri, 14-7, and wrap up their SEC schedule. If Georgia stumbles next week against Auburn, the Gators win the East and will head to the SEC Championship. However, even if Georgia wins, Florida can still compete for an invitation to the Sugar Bowl if they beat Florida State. In fact, Florida still has an outside chance at getting to the National Championship if they win out, if Georgia loses to Alabama, and if everybody outside the SEC suffers at least one loss. In the meanwhile, they get to rack up the ticket receipts with awkward home games against Louisiana-Lafayette and Jacksonville State.
7) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10) - The Buckeyes won at home against Illinois, 52-22, and the Big Ten narrowly averted disaster with Nebraska beating Michigan State, 28-24. The Cornhuskers remain the Big Ten's last bowl eligible team with fewer than 3 losses. Nebraska remains the favorite to reach the Big Ten championship, with games left against Penn State, Minnesota, and Iowa. There, they will probably meet Wisconsin, although there is a chance that 4-5 Indiana could meet them there, if the Hoosiers win out against Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue.
And what to make of Ohio State's curious season? They're undefeated, but their opponents are a combined 44-49, with only three (Nebraska, Penn State, and UCF) currently with winning records. They still get Wisconsin and Michigan, and could ruin either or both of those teams Rose Bowl hopes. But I seriously doubt that an undefeated Ohio State will have enough respect to get a split national title from the AP. (They are fifth this morning.)
8) Oregon State (7-1, 5-1, +10)
9) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +10) - The Tigers don't get punished much for losing to the #1 team in the country by a last-minute touchdown, dropping from 7th to 9th. (5th to 9th in the AP.) However, their second loss seriously damaged their chances at securing an at-large BCS bowl berth. Their head-to-head loss to Florida looms large, and they would probably be picked after a two-loss Georgia team, too, unless the Bulldogs just get blown out by Alabama in the SEC Championship game. The Tigers still have work to do, with Mississippi State up next. Even if they miss out on the Sugar Bowl, a Cotton Bowl berth against, say, Texas or Oklahoma would be nothing to sneeze at.
10) Louisville (9-0, 4-0, +9)
11) Oklahoma (6-2, 4-1, +7)
12) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
13) Kent State (8-1, 5-0, +6)
14) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
15) Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2, +5)
16) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
17) Toledo (8-1, 5-0, +4) - Toledo is ranked for the first time ever this week, debuting at #23 in the AP poll. Northern Illinois, Kent State, and Ohio have all received votes, too. The MAC won't get settled out for another two weeks, when Toledo plays at Northern Illinois on Wednesday, Nov. 14, and Ohio plays at Kent State on Friday, Nov. 23. I highly doubt that even a one-loss MAC champ will be invited to a BCS bowl, although it is possible, especially since the Big Ten will probably only be sending one team this year.
18) Clemson (8-1, 5-1, +4)
19) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3) - In case you didn't notice, there were two games played in the Los Angeles area last night, and the same Arizona team that beat USC 39-36 last week fell on the road to UCLA 66-10. In the first half, Arizona had 79 yards on 25 plays, and the Bruins led 42-3 at the half. UCLA, USC, and Arizona State all still have a chance at winning the Pac-12 South. The Bruins have a one-game lead and hold the tie-breaker over ASU, with game left at Wazzu, vs. USC, and the finale at home against Stanford. Arizona State needs to beat USC and then have UCLA lose twice. The Trojans can still win the division by winning out: They host ASU next week and then take on the Bruins in the Rose Bowl on Nov. 17th. That game should be fun.
20) Stanford (7-2, 5-1, +3) - Stanford beat Colorado, ending a brutal three-game stretch where the Buffaloes lost at USC 50-6, at Oregon 70-14, and against Stanford 48-0. The Cardinal end their season at home against Oregon State, at Oregon, and at UCLA. (APs, 13, 2, and 17). Next week's OSU game will essentially be a "play-in" for the Pac-12 North Division, with the winner getting a shot at the Ducks for the division title and the loser having 2 conference losses and awaiting a Holiday Bowl invitation in the mail.
21) Texas (7-2, 4-2, +3)
22) Ohio (8-1, 4-1, +3)
23) Texas Tech (6-3, 3-3, +3)
24) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
25) Louisiana Tech (8-1, 3-0, +2)
2) Notre Dame (9-0, 0-0, +17) - OK, I am officially off the Notre Dame bandwagon. The Irish needed a furious comeback and a botched field goal to beat mighty 4-4 Pittsburgh 29-26 in triple overtime. I know that every championship team needs the football gods on their side at some point in the season, but not against a Big East also-ran.
Now, here's the thing. If, in August, you told me that Notre Dame would go 12-0 and beat Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC, I would say that they're an elite team and are in the National Championship, because I'm expecting at least 2 conference championships and 3 BCS bowl berths from those teams. But then you tell me that none of those teams win their conference, and only one (Oklahoma) will be playing in a BCS bowl. Just says something about how much pre-season expectations shape how we view the actual season.
3) Kansas State (9-0, 6-0, +17) - I really hope that Collin Klein is OK. The do-everything QB left Kansas State's 44-30 win over Oklahoma State with an unspecified knee injury and he is questionable for next week's game against TCU. The Wildcats need to win 2 out of their last 3 against TCU, Baylor, and Texas to win the Big 12 and go to the Fiesta Bowl, which they could do without Klein, because of their good defense and ability to control the ball. But their eyes are on a bigger prize right now. And I think they will need Klein at 100% to do that.
4) Oregon (9-0, 6-0, +15) - For the first time all season, I think I saw an Oregon team that belongs on the same field as Alabama in their 62-51 win at USC. Kenjon Barner had a historic day, rushing for 321 yards and 5 touchdowns, and the Ducks put up 730 yards of offense on 8.8 yards per play. And, even though they gave up 615 yards and 7.7 ypp to the Trojans, I was still impressed with Oregon's defense. They forced three first half turnovers, two of them in the red zone, and if it were not for one 75 yard Marquise Lee touchdown catch and one 82 yard Marquise Lee kickoff return, the game would not have been nearly as close. Something to note: There were two punts in the entire game, one by each team, 0 in the first half.
5) Georgia (8-1, 6-1, +11)
6) Florida (8-1, 7-1, +12) - The Gators needed a last minute interception in the endzone to defeat Missouri, 14-7, and wrap up their SEC schedule. If Georgia stumbles next week against Auburn, the Gators win the East and will head to the SEC Championship. However, even if Georgia wins, Florida can still compete for an invitation to the Sugar Bowl if they beat Florida State. In fact, Florida still has an outside chance at getting to the National Championship if they win out, if Georgia loses to Alabama, and if everybody outside the SEC suffers at least one loss. In the meanwhile, they get to rack up the ticket receipts with awkward home games against Louisiana-Lafayette and Jacksonville State.
7) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10) - The Buckeyes won at home against Illinois, 52-22, and the Big Ten narrowly averted disaster with Nebraska beating Michigan State, 28-24. The Cornhuskers remain the Big Ten's last bowl eligible team with fewer than 3 losses. Nebraska remains the favorite to reach the Big Ten championship, with games left against Penn State, Minnesota, and Iowa. There, they will probably meet Wisconsin, although there is a chance that 4-5 Indiana could meet them there, if the Hoosiers win out against Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue.
And what to make of Ohio State's curious season? They're undefeated, but their opponents are a combined 44-49, with only three (Nebraska, Penn State, and UCF) currently with winning records. They still get Wisconsin and Michigan, and could ruin either or both of those teams Rose Bowl hopes. But I seriously doubt that an undefeated Ohio State will have enough respect to get a split national title from the AP. (They are fifth this morning.)
8) Oregon State (7-1, 5-1, +10)
9) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +10) - The Tigers don't get punished much for losing to the #1 team in the country by a last-minute touchdown, dropping from 7th to 9th. (5th to 9th in the AP.) However, their second loss seriously damaged their chances at securing an at-large BCS bowl berth. Their head-to-head loss to Florida looms large, and they would probably be picked after a two-loss Georgia team, too, unless the Bulldogs just get blown out by Alabama in the SEC Championship game. The Tigers still have work to do, with Mississippi State up next. Even if they miss out on the Sugar Bowl, a Cotton Bowl berth against, say, Texas or Oklahoma would be nothing to sneeze at.
10) Louisville (9-0, 4-0, +9)
11) Oklahoma (6-2, 4-1, +7)
12) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
13) Kent State (8-1, 5-0, +6)
14) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
15) Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2, +5)
16) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
17) Toledo (8-1, 5-0, +4) - Toledo is ranked for the first time ever this week, debuting at #23 in the AP poll. Northern Illinois, Kent State, and Ohio have all received votes, too. The MAC won't get settled out for another two weeks, when Toledo plays at Northern Illinois on Wednesday, Nov. 14, and Ohio plays at Kent State on Friday, Nov. 23. I highly doubt that even a one-loss MAC champ will be invited to a BCS bowl, although it is possible, especially since the Big Ten will probably only be sending one team this year.
18) Clemson (8-1, 5-1, +4)
19) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3) - In case you didn't notice, there were two games played in the Los Angeles area last night, and the same Arizona team that beat USC 39-36 last week fell on the road to UCLA 66-10. In the first half, Arizona had 79 yards on 25 plays, and the Bruins led 42-3 at the half. UCLA, USC, and Arizona State all still have a chance at winning the Pac-12 South. The Bruins have a one-game lead and hold the tie-breaker over ASU, with game left at Wazzu, vs. USC, and the finale at home against Stanford. Arizona State needs to beat USC and then have UCLA lose twice. The Trojans can still win the division by winning out: They host ASU next week and then take on the Bruins in the Rose Bowl on Nov. 17th. That game should be fun.
20) Stanford (7-2, 5-1, +3) - Stanford beat Colorado, ending a brutal three-game stretch where the Buffaloes lost at USC 50-6, at Oregon 70-14, and against Stanford 48-0. The Cardinal end their season at home against Oregon State, at Oregon, and at UCLA. (APs, 13, 2, and 17). Next week's OSU game will essentially be a "play-in" for the Pac-12 North Division, with the winner getting a shot at the Ducks for the division title and the loser having 2 conference losses and awaiting a Holiday Bowl invitation in the mail.
21) Texas (7-2, 4-2, +3)
22) Ohio (8-1, 4-1, +3)
23) Texas Tech (6-3, 3-3, +3)
24) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
25) Louisiana Tech (8-1, 3-0, +2)
My Top 25
1) Alabama (9-0, 6-0, +18)
2) Notre Dame (9-0, 0-0, +17)
3) Kansas State (9-0, 6-0, +17)
4) Oregon (9-0, 6-0, +15)
5) Georgia (8-1, 6-1, +11)
6) Florida (8-1, 7-1, +12)
7) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
8) Oregon State (7-1, 5-1, +10)
9) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +10)
10) Louisville (9-0, 4-0, +9)
11) Oklahoma (6-2, 4-1, +7)
12) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
13) Kent State (8-1, 5-0, +6)
14) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
15) Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2, +5)
16) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
17) Toledo (8-1, 5-0, +4)
18) Clemson (8-1, 5-1, +4)
19) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3)
20) Stanford (7-2, 5-1, +3)
21) Texas (7-2, 4-2, +3)
22) Ohio (8-1, 4-1, +3)
23) Texas Tech (6-3, 3-3, +3)
24) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
25) Louisiana Tech (8-1, 3-0, +2)
Arizona (5-3, 2-3, +1)
Nebraska (7-2, 4-1, 0)
Boise State (7-2, 4-1, -1)
Mississippi State (7-2, 3-2, -1)
San Jose State (7-2, 5-1, -1)
Washington (5-4, 3-3, -1)
Michigan (6-3, 4-1, -2)
USC (6-3, 4-3, -3)
Cincinnati (5-2, 1-1, -4)
Utah State (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Tulsa (7-2, 4-0, -5)
West Virginia (5-3, 2-3, -5)
Northwestern (7-2, 3-2, -5)
Penn State (6-3, 4-1, -5)
UCF (7-2, 5-0, -5)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-3, 4-1, -6)
Temple (3-5, 2-3, -6)
Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1, -6)
Western Kentucky (6-3, 3-2, -7)
Ball State (6-3, 3-2, -7)
Arkansas State (6-3, 4-1, -7)
Fresno State (7-3, 5-1, -7)
San Diego State (7-3, 5-1, -8)
Iowa State (4-4, 1-4, -8)
TCU (6-3, 3-3, -8)
Vanderbilt (5-4, 3-3, -8)
Arizona State (5-4, 3-3, -9)
Mississippi (5-4, 2-3, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
Miami (FL) (5-4, 4-2, -9)
Middle Tennessee State (6-3, 4-1, -9)
Duke (6-4, 3-3, -10)
North Carolina (6-3, 3-2, -11)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Wisconsin (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Bowling Green (6-3, 4-1, -12)
Navy (6-3, 0-0, -12)
Syracuse (3-4, 2-1, -13)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-3, 3-2, -13)
North Carolina State (5-4, 2-3, -14)
Missouri (4-5, 1-5, -14)
Tennessee (4-5, 0-5, -14)
Baylor (4-3, 1-3, -14)
East Carolina (6-4, 5-1, -16)
Michigan State (5-5, 2-4, -17)
Pittsburgh (4-5, 1-3, -18)
Arkansas (4-5, 2-3, -18)
Wake Forest (5-4, 3-4, -18)
South Florida (3-5, 1-3, -18)
Texas-San Antonio (5-4, 1-3, -19)
Minnesota (5-4, 1-4, -19)
Air Force (5-4, 4-1, -19)
Utah (4-5, 2-4, -19)
Houston (4-5, 4-2, -21)
Indiana (4-5, 2-3, -21)
Miami (OH) (4-5, 3-2, -21)
Texas State (3-5, 0-2, -23)
Iowa (4-5, 2-3, -24)
Troy (4-5, 3-3, -24)
Marshall (4-5, 3-2, -25)
Maryland (4-5, 2-3, -26)
North Texas (3-6, 2-3, -26)
Virginia Tech (4-5, 2-3, -26)
SMU (4-5, 3-2, -26)
Georgia Tech (4-5, 3-3, -26)
New Mexico (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Purdue (3-6, 0-5, -28)
Central Michigan (3-6, 1-4, -28)
Washington State (2-7, 0-6, -29)
Connecticut (3-6, 0-4, -29)
Rice (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Auburn (2-7, 0-6, -31)
Western Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Florida Atlantic (2-7, 1-4, -32)
Buffalo (2-7, 1-4,-33)
Virginia (3-6, 1-4, -33)
California (3-7, 2-5, -35)
Colorado (1-8, 1-5, -36)
Illinois (2-7, 0-5, -36)
UTEP (2-7, 1-4, -37)
Hawaii (1-7, 0-5, -38)
South Alabama (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Boston College (2-7, 1-5, -38)
UAB (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Wyoming (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Tulane (2-7, 2-5, -40)
Army (2-7, 0-0, -40)
Colorado State (2-7, 1-4, -40)
Kansas (1-8, 0-6, -41)
New Mexico State (1-8, 0-4, -42)
Kentucky (1-9, 0-7, -42)
Idaho (1-8, 1-2, -44)
Florida International (2-8, 1-5, -45)
UNLV (2-8, 2-3, -45)
Eastern Michigan (1-8, 0-5, -46)
Memphis (1-8, 1-4, -47)
Akron (1-9, 0-6, -48)
Massachusetts (0-9, 0-5, -50)
Southern Miss (0-9, 0-5, -50)
2) Notre Dame (9-0, 0-0, +17)
3) Kansas State (9-0, 6-0, +17)
4) Oregon (9-0, 6-0, +15)
5) Georgia (8-1, 6-1, +11)
6) Florida (8-1, 7-1, +12)
7) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
8) Oregon State (7-1, 5-1, +10)
9) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +10)
10) Louisville (9-0, 4-0, +9)
11) Oklahoma (6-2, 4-1, +7)
12) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
13) Kent State (8-1, 5-0, +6)
14) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
15) Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2, +5)
16) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
17) Toledo (8-1, 5-0, +4)
18) Clemson (8-1, 5-1, +4)
19) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3)
20) Stanford (7-2, 5-1, +3)
21) Texas (7-2, 4-2, +3)
22) Ohio (8-1, 4-1, +3)
23) Texas Tech (6-3, 3-3, +3)
24) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
25) Louisiana Tech (8-1, 3-0, +2)
Arizona (5-3, 2-3, +1)
Nebraska (7-2, 4-1, 0)
Boise State (7-2, 4-1, -1)
Mississippi State (7-2, 3-2, -1)
San Jose State (7-2, 5-1, -1)
Washington (5-4, 3-3, -1)
Michigan (6-3, 4-1, -2)
USC (6-3, 4-3, -3)
Cincinnati (5-2, 1-1, -4)
Utah State (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Tulsa (7-2, 4-0, -5)
West Virginia (5-3, 2-3, -5)
Northwestern (7-2, 3-2, -5)
Penn State (6-3, 4-1, -5)
UCF (7-2, 5-0, -5)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-3, 4-1, -6)
Temple (3-5, 2-3, -6)
Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1, -6)
Western Kentucky (6-3, 3-2, -7)
Ball State (6-3, 3-2, -7)
Arkansas State (6-3, 4-1, -7)
Fresno State (7-3, 5-1, -7)
San Diego State (7-3, 5-1, -8)
Iowa State (4-4, 1-4, -8)
TCU (6-3, 3-3, -8)
Vanderbilt (5-4, 3-3, -8)
Arizona State (5-4, 3-3, -9)
Mississippi (5-4, 2-3, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
Miami (FL) (5-4, 4-2, -9)
Middle Tennessee State (6-3, 4-1, -9)
Duke (6-4, 3-3, -10)
North Carolina (6-3, 3-2, -11)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Wisconsin (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Bowling Green (6-3, 4-1, -12)
Navy (6-3, 0-0, -12)
Syracuse (3-4, 2-1, -13)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-3, 3-2, -13)
North Carolina State (5-4, 2-3, -14)
Missouri (4-5, 1-5, -14)
Tennessee (4-5, 0-5, -14)
Baylor (4-3, 1-3, -14)
East Carolina (6-4, 5-1, -16)
Michigan State (5-5, 2-4, -17)
Pittsburgh (4-5, 1-3, -18)
Arkansas (4-5, 2-3, -18)
Wake Forest (5-4, 3-4, -18)
South Florida (3-5, 1-3, -18)
Texas-San Antonio (5-4, 1-3, -19)
Minnesota (5-4, 1-4, -19)
Air Force (5-4, 4-1, -19)
Utah (4-5, 2-4, -19)
Houston (4-5, 4-2, -21)
Indiana (4-5, 2-3, -21)
Miami (OH) (4-5, 3-2, -21)
Texas State (3-5, 0-2, -23)
Iowa (4-5, 2-3, -24)
Troy (4-5, 3-3, -24)
Marshall (4-5, 3-2, -25)
Maryland (4-5, 2-3, -26)
North Texas (3-6, 2-3, -26)
Virginia Tech (4-5, 2-3, -26)
SMU (4-5, 3-2, -26)
Georgia Tech (4-5, 3-3, -26)
New Mexico (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Purdue (3-6, 0-5, -28)
Central Michigan (3-6, 1-4, -28)
Washington State (2-7, 0-6, -29)
Connecticut (3-6, 0-4, -29)
Rice (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Auburn (2-7, 0-6, -31)
Western Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Florida Atlantic (2-7, 1-4, -32)
Buffalo (2-7, 1-4,-33)
Virginia (3-6, 1-4, -33)
California (3-7, 2-5, -35)
Colorado (1-8, 1-5, -36)
Illinois (2-7, 0-5, -36)
UTEP (2-7, 1-4, -37)
Hawaii (1-7, 0-5, -38)
South Alabama (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Boston College (2-7, 1-5, -38)
UAB (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Wyoming (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Tulane (2-7, 2-5, -40)
Army (2-7, 0-0, -40)
Colorado State (2-7, 1-4, -40)
Kansas (1-8, 0-6, -41)
New Mexico State (1-8, 0-4, -42)
Kentucky (1-9, 0-7, -42)
Idaho (1-8, 1-2, -44)
Florida International (2-8, 1-5, -45)
UNLV (2-8, 2-3, -45)
Eastern Michigan (1-8, 0-5, -46)
Memphis (1-8, 1-4, -47)
Akron (1-9, 0-6, -48)
Massachusetts (0-9, 0-5, -50)
Southern Miss (0-9, 0-5, -50)
Saturday, November 3, 2012
On Football and Fashion
A quick observation: The Ducks, in white and silver, look like ghosts or bones imprinted with wings on the field against USC, adorned in their mortal red and gold, blood and flesh. Reminiscent of Book VI of the Aeneid.
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