Scenario #2: The One Where Notre Dame Chokes
This is the disaster scenario. Everybody takes care of business except the Irish, who lose on the road to USC. Alabama takes their spot in the national championship, but against whom? The voters would want Oregon, except that, if Stanford beats UCLA, the Ducks won't even be the division champs, let alone Pac-12 champs. Florida State could be it, especially if they beat Florida, but right now the computers and the voters agree that the ACC is too weak to put up a one-loss champ. Stanford would have an impressive resume and be Pac-12 champs, but you couldn't put a 2-loss team in ahead of four one-loss teams. And Notre Dame could still be the choice, except that losing on the last day of the season to a 7-4 team looks really bad. So I'm saying: Kansas State. Even though they lost big to 5-6 Baylor, they would still be Big-12 champs, with wins over Texas and Oklahoma, and the computers really love the Big 12.
BCS National Championship: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Kansas State
Rose: #3 Stanford vs. #19 Nebraska
Fiesta:
#4 Oregon vs. #12 Oklahoma - The Fiesta loves replacing K-State with Oklahoma. Hopefully, this game would generate big revenue, a billion points, and a little bad blood. Oklahoma might even be OK with playing in the Fiesta for the fourth time in seven years.
Sugar: #7 LSU vs. #6 Notre Dame - It's also possible that the Fiesta would pick Notre Dame instead of Oregon, but a) That would be a rematch of a game earlier this year, which bowls tend to try to avoid, and b) Geographically, the Fiesta Bowl makes more sense for the Ducks and the Sugar Bowl makes more sense for the Irish. It would be the first time either team played the Sugar Bowl since they played each other in 2007, and it would push LSU just ahead of Alabama for most ever appearances, 14-13.
Orange: #6 Florida State vs #14 Rutgers
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Kansas State (11-1, 8-1, +15)
3) Stanford (11-2, 9-1, +20)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
6) Notre Dame (11-1, 0-0, +13)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
9) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
12) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
13) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
14) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
15) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
16) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
17) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
18) UCLA (9-4, 6-4, +4)
19) Nebraska (11-2, 8-1, +4)
20) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
21) Texas (9-3, 6-3, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) USC (8-4, 5-4, 0)
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