Scenario #3: The One That I Want

Scenario #3: The One That I Want 

This is the most likely scenario that gets the Ducks in the National Championship against Alabama.  It entails several outcomes of varying probability.  In the Pac-12, the Ducks beat the Beavers and UCLA upsets Stanford, and then Oregon beats UCLA for the Pac-12 championship.  Then, Notre Dame loses at USC.  These, on their own, might be enough to get Oregon into the BCS game.  However, I added a few extra insurers: Kansas State loses a second game to Texas, and Florida State beats Florida, ending whatever (slim) chances they had of getting back into the championship.  I still have Alabama beating Georgia for the SEC championship.  In the Big Ten, I bail out the Rose Bowl by having two B1G upsets: Iowa over Nebraska, and Michigan over Ohio State, then Michigan over Wisconsin in the B1G championship.  This lets them avoid either a UCLA-Nebraska rematch or UCLA- (8-5) Wisconsin.

BCS: #1 Alabama vs #2 Oregon
Rose: #8 UCLA vs #18 Michigan
Fiesta: #10 Oklahoma vs Nebraska
Sugar: #4 Notre Dame vs #6 LSU
Orange: #3 Florida State  vs #16 Rutgers

Post-Script: After looking at the results, the Fiesta is in a tight spot.  It takes Big 12 Champ Oklahoma, but can't really match them up against anyone.  They can't pick from the SEC (Georgia), the Pac-12 (Stanford), or the Big 12 (Texas).  The Sugar Bowl will surely snatch Notre Dame right up.  That leaves Big East champ Rutgers from New Jersey, or ACC runner-up Clemson from South Carolina.  So I'll say that the Fiesta says screw it and takes 9-3 Nebraska, and matches them up against their old rivals. 

1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Oregon (12-1, 9-1, +22)
3) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
4) Notre Dame (11-1, 0-0, +13)
5) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)

6) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
7) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) UCLA (10-3, 7-3, +11)
9) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
10) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)

11) Stanford (9-3, 7-2, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Texas (10-2, 7-2, +10)
14) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
15) Kansas State (10-2, 7-2, +8)

16) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9) 
17) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6) 
18) Michigan (10-3, 8-1, +7)
19) Ohio State (11-1, 7-1, +5)
20) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)

21) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) Arizona (8-4, 5-4, +1)