1) Notre Dame (12-0, 0-0, +20) - Well, congratulations Irish, you did it. A 22-13 win over USC was the last step in a crazy season that included two overtimes, three 3-point wins, and trips to Oklahoma, Massachusetts, California, and Ireland. Nine of their opponents will have 6-wins or more, three have 8 or more, and 2 could still be going to BCS bowls. Despite the fact that they needed literal miracles to beat BYU, Stanford, and Pitt, they deserve to be #1 and - with the exception of that Pitt game - they really have looked it ever since their 30-13 win at Oklahoma, especially their defense, which only gave up more than 17 points all season (against Pitt!).
But does anyone actually believe that they will stand a chance against Alabama?
2) Florida (11-1, 7-1, +18) - There were a few minutes yesterday when I really thought all the balls were going to bounce Oregon's way, and get them back into the National Championship. The Ducks had just beaten Oregon State, UCLA and Stanford were tied, and Florida State had just scored 17 consecutive points to open up a 20-13 lead over Florida. Then the Gator defense took over, forcing a fumble, a 3-and-out, and a turnover on downs, leading to 24 consecutive points and a 37-26 win. On those three drives, Florida State had 41 yards on 16 plays, 2.5 yards per play. The Gators finish the season 4-1 against the AP top 13, and, if it were not for the Irish, would be playing the winner of Alabama-Georgia in yet another all-SEC NC game. As it is, they will have to settle for the Sugar Bowl.
3) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +17) - Chase Stuart, at footballperspective.com, has an excellent observation about the SEC: The top 6 teams in the conference were a perfect 30-0 against the rest of the SEC. The bottom 4 (Auburn, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee) were 0-26 against the rest of the conference, with 18 of those losses coming by 10 or more points. The Crimson Tide did not play Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina, but did beat Arkansas 52-0, Tennessee 44-13, and Auburn 49-0. The Bulldogs did not play Alabama, LSU, or Texas A&M, but notched wins over Tennessee 51-44, Kentucky 29-24, and Auburn, 38-0. These two teams will play a semi-final next week, and the winner will play Notre Dame for the national title. And I would call foul if it were not for the fact that nobody seems to be able to beat the SEC on the field.
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17) - The Ducks ended their season on a high note, beating Oregon State 48-24, finishing the season 11-1, and most likely going to a fourth consecutive BCS bowl, probably the Fiesta Bowl against Kansas State or Oklahoma. It's interesting though; after the final week of carnage, the Ducks ended exactly 1-1 against the Top 25. But they also had wins against #28 Washington, #29 Arkansas State, #32 Fresno State, #33 Arizona, and #37 USC, meaning that 7 of their 11 wins came against bowl eligible teams. But without that Stanford win, there is no "signature" victory.
5) Stanford (10-2, 8-1, +17) - Stanford, on the other hand, has wins against #4 Oregon, #15 Oregon State, #16 UCLA, and #20 San Jose State (remember that?). They were able to convincingly shut Oregon's last door to the Rose Bowl with a 35-17 win at UCLA, and now have to do it again to reach their first Rose Bowl since 2000, a 17-9 loss to Wisconsin. Interestingly enough, that Stanford team lost to San Jose State 39-44. Stanford's last Rose Bowl win was in 1972, a 13-12 win over Michigan. That team, the last to be the "Stanford Indians," also lost to San Jose State, 13-12. (Apparently this is a thing. Stanford-San Jose State? I had no idea.)
6) Georgia (11-1, 7-1, +14) - Am I pissed that Georgia, a team that is exactly 1-1 against the Top 25, who's three best wins are against #3 Florida, #32 Vanderbilt and #57 Mississippi is one win away from the National Championship? Yes, yes I am. (The fact that #71 Georgia Tech, who Georgia beat 42-10, is one win away from the ACC Championship and the Orange Bowl, I find hilarious.)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
9) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Kent State (11-1, 8-0, +9)
14) Florida State (10-2, 7-1, +7) - Oh, ACC you are terrible. The conference went 0-4 on Saturday against the SEC, and now finish the season 6-18 against teams from BCS-conferences + ND + BYU. The thing that I noticed was that Florida State, a team that was supposed to pride itself on its defense, allowed 394 yards against Florida, 244 of them on the ground, at a rate of 5.2 yards per rush. By comparison, Louisiana-Lafayette allowed 4.4 yards per rush when they lost to Florida 27-20. But look on the bright side, ACC: at least you're not the Big East.
15) Oregon State (8-3, 6-3, +5) - The Beavers were hanging tough with the Ducks in the third quarter, having just scored a touchdown to cut the lead to 20-17, and Reser Stadium was rocking. Then that weird thing happened where you blink, and Oregon State commits four turnovers, including three interceptions by Sean Mannion, and the Ducks score 14 points in 2:44 and 28 in less than 12, and suddenly it's a blow-out. Even still, this has been a great season for the Beavers, assuming they can put away FCS Nicholls State next week in a make-up game. A bowl win against a Big 12 team in the Alamo Bowl would be a great way to end the season.
16) UCLA (9-3, 6-3, +5) - A week after winning at home against USC, the Bruins looked outclassed in losing to Stanford, 17-35. They have to travel to Palo Alto now, for a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship. I do not think they will win. However, they could still be going to the Holiday Bowl, which is way better than being 6-7 and losing to Illinois in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, like they did last year. Also, assuming that the Ducks get invited to the Fiesta Bowl, there could be 3 Pac-12 vs. Big 12 bowl games this year. Also, on the last night of the regular season, Pac-12 teams went 1-5 at home, the only win being Wazzu over Washington in the Apple Cup. (Pac-12 road teams were 4-1.)
17) Northern Illinois (11-1, 8-0, +5)
18) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
19) Nebraska (10-2, 7-1, +3)
20) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
21) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1) - Boise State did that zen thing where you just sit at home and watch the universe work for you. Last week, they were #22 in the BCS rankings. Yesterday, every team between #15 and #21 lost. This morning, the Broncos are #15 in the Coaches' Poll, because the coaches don't watch football. (Boise State's a much more sensible 25th in the AP.) But if Boise State finishes in the top 16 in the BCS, ahead of the MAC champion (they're 3 spots ahead of NIU, 4 ahead of Kent State in the Coaches') and ahead of one BCS champion (i.e., Louisville, Rutgers. Wisconsin or Georgia Tech if they win their championship games) then Boise State is in a BCS game! But come on, guys. They lost to 6-6 Michigan State. They have wins against 0-12 Southern Miss, 2-11 UNLV, 2-9 Hawaii, 4-8 New Mexico, and 3-8 Colorado State, all five of whom are in My Bottom 25. As much as I love the Smurf Turf, this is not a BCS-quality team.
22) Rutgers (9-2, 5-1, 0)
23) Utah State (10-2, 6-0, -1)
24) Texas (8-3, 5-3, -2)
25) Michigan (8-4, 6-2, -2) - The Wolverines back their way into the Top 25 thanks to losses by Texas, Louisville, Rutgers, Washington, Arizona, and USC. At the end of the season, they can point to the fact that their four losses came to 11-1 Alabama, 12-0 Notre Dame, 10-2 Nebraska, and 12-0 Ohio State. On the other hand, their best win is probably against 9-3 Northwestern, their only win against a team with a winning record, although they did beat four 6-6 teams. That should be enough to get to a New Year's Bowl against the SEC.
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