BCS Prognostications

BCS - Alabama vs. Florida State

Alabama's a no-brainer.  I'm picking FSU as their opponent because a) I don't think voters will tolerate another all-SEC championship, and b) If both Oregon and FSU go unbeaten, I think the markets will decide.  And pick the Seminoles and their huge TV ratings.  

Rose - Oregon vs. Michigan State

What happens when the Big Ten submits a 10-3 champion to the Rose Bowl? In 2008, 10-2 #7 USC beat 9-3 #13 Illinois 49-17.  That sounds about right. 

Fiesta - Oklahoma vs. USC

This is a tough one.  I do think that enough Big 12 teams will lose to let Oklahoma slip back into the BCS.  But their at-large opponent is equally problematic: Notre Dame would be the ideal partner, but they will have already played against Oklahoma.  The nod then goes to USC, but this is contingent on Stanford losing at least two more games (Oregon and Notre Dame) and USC beating Notre Dame, but losing the Pac-12 championship to Oregon.

Sugar - LSU vs. Notre Dame

A rematch of the 2007 Sugar Bowl, in which LSU beat the Irish 41-14, Charlie Weis got an extension at Notre Dame, and JaMarcus Russell embarked on his long and successful NFL career.  

Orange - West Virginia vs. Louisville

So, West Virginia, you thought you could escape the Big East, eh?  This is actually, geographically, a better fit for the Mountaineers than the Fiesta Bowl.  I had been saving a second BCS spot for Michigan, who any bowl would jump for, but I just don't think they'll be able to overcome their 2-2 start.

Who gets robbed?  Stanford, who watches a USC team they beat get to the BCS, and Clemson, who will finish with a better record than both Notre Dame and Louisville, but not have the traveling fan base to justify another big money game.