Sunday, September 30, 2012

Power Rankings - Oct. 01

1) Oregon State (3-0, 2-0, +12) Results: W @ Arizona, 38-35. Next Game: vs. Washington State.  Good Wins: vs. Wisconsin, @ UCLA, @ Arizona.

I almost jinxed the Beavers last night.  I was at the Pygmalion Music Festival with Robyn, when I checked my phone and saw that the Beavers were up on Arizona 17-0.  "Don't tell anyone," I said, "But the Beavers might actually be very good."  As soon as I said that, Arizona scored a touchdown, and started a comeback that would see them up 35-31 with 1:09 left in the game.  Oregon State bounced back, though, when QB Sean Mannion threw his third touchdown pass of the game, and then Rashaad Reynolds intercepted Arizona to seal the win 30 seconds later. 

2) Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0, +10) Results: W @ Iowa State, 24-13. Next Game: vs. Oklahoma.  Good Wins: vs. Texas State*, vs. Iowa State

I want you to think of TT as the Big 12's "placeholder." We're pretty sure that there is an elite team or two in the Big 12, but we're not sure who it is, so we'll just say it's Tech until evidence proves us otherwise, which may happen next week when the Oklahoma Sooners come to town.  (* Texas Tech got extra credit for beating this WAC team because Texas State had just beaten Houston, who last year finished 11-1, but this year kind of stinks.)

3) Oregon (5-0, 2-0, +10) Results: W @ Washington State, 51-26. Next Game: vs. Washington. Good Win: vs. Arizona

The Ducks are doing that thing where they have flashes of brilliance interrupted by long periods of mediocre football.  Against the Cougars, they let an early 20-3 lead shrink to 23-19 at halftime, before turning on the engines and winning by 25.  They also may have been the greatest beneficiaries of Stanford's loss, but let me ask you this: Will the Civil War game end up having more Rose Bowl implications this year than Stanford-Oregon?

4) Notre Dame (4-0, 0-0, +9) Results: Bye.  Next Game: vs. Miami (FL). Good Wins: vs. Michigan, @ Michigan State

Catholics versus Convicts next week. (I hate that saying.  Kind of racist, right?)  Don't look now, but supposedly hapless Miami is coming to South Bend at 4-1, on top of their division, and their only loss coming against K-State.  Their schedule is about to get more difficult, though, with Notre Dame, Florida State, and Virginia Tech all on the docket.  Still, how awesome would it be if Miami and Duke (4-1, 1-0) were playing for the division title in their season finale on Nov. 24?

5) Florida State (5-0, 2-0, +9) Results: W @ South Florida, 30-17. Next Game: @ North Carolina State Good Win: vs. Clemson

6) Rutgers (4-0, 1-0, +7) Results: Bye Next Game: vs. Connecticut Good Wins: Getting to beat South Florida before FSU got there; Arkansas after they got steamrolled by Alabama. 

7) Alabama (5-0, 2-0, +7) Results: W vs. Mississippi, 33-14.  Next Game: @ Missouri Good Win: vs. Michigan.

Alabama looked mortal for about 15 seconds yesterday, when they trailed Ole Miss 7-6 at home in the second quarter.  Christion Jones then returned a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown.  The Tide were one of a few elite teams who looked off their game on Saturday, allowing Ole Miss to get 16 first downs, 10 of which came on third or fourth down.  Still, I see no reason to panic in Tuscaloosa. 

8) UCLA (4-1, 1-1, +7) Results: W vs. Colorado 42-14. Next Game: @ California.  Good Win: vs. Nebraska

9) Florida (4-0, 3-0, +6) Results: Bye. Next Game: vs. LSU Good Win: @ Tennessee

Next week is going to be an epic one in the SEC, with Florida hosting LSU and Georgia visiting South Carolina.  The winners of both those games will get huge boosts here, probably up to the top 5, and even the losers should have enough cache to remain in the top 25.  I'm going to want to think about this longer, but if I had to pick right now, I'd go with LSU over Florida and South Carolina over Georgia. 
 
10) Ohio (5-0, 1-0, +6) Results: W @ Massachusetts, 37-34. Next Game: vs. Buffalo Good Win: We gave them too much credit for beating Penn State in the first week. 

11) Georgia (5-0, 3-0, +6) Results: W vs. Tennessee, 51-44.  Next Game: @ South Carolina Good Win: vs. Tennessee

Another week, another opportunity to be underwhelmed by the Georgia Bulldogs.  Tennessee scored 44 points against Georgia, which means that the Bulldogs did better against Tennessee than both Akron (47) and Georgia State (51).  Georgia's defense is 6th in the SEC and 47th in the FBS in points allowed per game, tied with Maryland and Vanderbilt but just behind UCF and Western Kentucky.  In other news, how unfair is it that Tennessee has to play at Georgia, at Mississippi State, vs. Alabama, and at South Carolina while Georgia gets to trade in Alabama and Mississippi State for Mississippi and Auburn? 

12) Kansas State (4-0, 1-0, +5) Results: Bye. Next Game: vs. Kansas. Good Wins: @ Oklahoma, vs. Miami (FL)(?) 

13) LSU (5-0, 1-0, +5) Results: W vs. Towson Next Game: @ Florida Good Win: vs. Washington

Uh-oh.  For the second straight week, LSU looked vulnerable against an inferior opponent.  They fumbled 5 times, losing it 3 times.  They allowed four sacks.  They gave up 4.7 yards per rush.  Against Towson. 

14) South Carolina (5-0, 3-0, +5) Results: W @ Kentucky, 38-17. Next Game: vs. Georgia Good Wins: Still waiting.  They got four future opponents in the AP Top 25, though. 

15) Northwestern (5-0, 1-0, +5) Results: W vs. Indiana 44-29. Next Game: @ Penn State Good Wins: umm... Syracuse? ....

Northwestern's victory means that Indiana passes them as the losingest FBS team of all time, with a record 633 losses.  I'm afraid that this might be Northwestern's high point of the season, though, as they still have to play at Penn State, at Michigan, and at Michigan State. 

16) Louisville (5-0, 0-0, +5) Results: W @ Southern Miss 21-17. Next Game: Oct. 13 @ Pittsburgh Good Wins: vs. Kentucky, vs. North Carolina.  If we were playing basketball.  But the Big East as a conference is 19-10 against all other conferences, and 4-2 against that lyin', cheatin', stealin' ACC.

17) Ohio State (5-0, 1-0, +5) Results: W @ Michigan State 17-16. Next Game: vs Nebraska Good Win: @ Michigan State

Alright, I've finally figured out the Big Ten divisions: You've got the Mnimnm Division and the P-Powii! Division.  The problem is that two of the teams from P-Powii! are banned from the Big Ten Championship: Ohio State, for having players trade BCS swag for tattoos, and Penn State, for decades of institutionally sanctioned child rape.  Because those two are totally equivalent crimes.  So that means that one of Wisconsin (3-2, 0-1), Purdue (3-1, 0-0), Indiana (2-2, 0-1), or Illinois (2-3, 0-1) will be playing in the Big Ten Championship in December, with a trip to the Rose Bowl on the line.

We are also facing the first time in 8 years that the Big Ten will only have one BCS representative, and the first time since the BCS expanded from 8 teams to 10 in 2006. 

18) Texas-San Antonio (5-0, 1-0, +5) Results: W @ New Mexico State, 35-14. Next Game: Oct. 13 @ Rice.  Good Wins: Give 'em a break, they just got here, OK? 

The Fightin' Roadrunners! UTSA got their first ever FBS victory over New Mexico State.  QB Eric Soza passed for 269 yards and 3 TDs, and has a season QB rating of 159.1, with 10 TDs and 1 INT on the season.  

19) West Virginia (4-0, 1-0, +5) Results: W vs. Baylor 70-63. Next Game: @ Texas. Good Win: vs. Baylor

West Virginia QB Geno Smith's stat line from the Baylor game: 45/51, 656 yards, 8 TDs, 0 INTs.  The man had 8 touchdown passes and 6 incomplete passes. 

20) Washington (3-1, 1-0, +5) Results: W vs. Stanford 17-13. Next Game: @ Oregon. Good Win: vs. Stanford

Of my four Pac-12 teams in the Top 25, this is the one that I feel least comfortable with.  The Huskies played really well in upsetting Stanford at home, but I just can't shake that shaky win against San Diego State or that blowout loss to LSU out of my mind.  Washington gets the "trifecta" treatment in the Pac-12, playing at Oregon next week and hosting USC the week after.  If they're 4-2, then I'll start treating them as a serious Top 25 team. 

21) Mississippi State (4-0, 1-0, +4) Results: Bye. Next Game: @ Kentucky Good Wins: None.

22) Texas (4-0, 1-0, +4) Results: W @ Oklahoma State, 41-36. Next Game: vs. West Virginia. Good Win: @ Oklahoma State

How many games were there on Saturday where the favored team looked like they were in trouble until pulling it out to win the end?  I was rooting hard for OkSt., but, in the end, Texas was able to rally back from down 33-28 in the fourth quarter and get a big conference road win.  They host West Virginia next week, and the winner of that game will get a big boost in the race for the Big 12 championship.

23) TCU (4-0, 1-0, +4) Results: W @ SMU 24-16. Next Game: vs. Iowa State. Good Wins: None, really.  In fact, you could make the case that each game for TCU gets progressively harder this year, from Week 1 against Grambling State to Week 14 against Oklahoma. 

24) Louisiana Tech (4-0, 0-0, +4) Results: W @ Virginia 44-38.  Next Game: vs. UNLV.  Good Wins: None.

25) Cincinnati (3-0, 1-0, +3) Results: W vs. Virginia Tech, 27-24. Next Game: vs. Miami (OH). Good Wins: None.

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