Sunday, September 16, 2012

Power Rankings - Sep. 16

1) Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0, +8)

2) UCLA (3-0, 0-0, +8) - Do I think that the Bruins are the second best team in the nation?  No, of course not.  But the design of my ranking system is supposed to radically favor body-of-work over expectations or eyeball tests.  Ideally, as the season progresses, these rankings should begin to more closely resemble the national polls.  On the other hand, what if UCLA refuses to lose?  My theory is: Until someone takes it from them, the Bruins deserve this spot. 

3) Notre Dame (3-0, 0-0, +8) - You've done it now, Irish.  Their 20-3 road win over Big Ten favorite Michigan State means that Notre Dame is for real this season.  They play host to Michigan next week (AP #11 vs. #18), and a win then should officially start the BCS prognosticating.  However, remember two things: 1) ND still has four more games against AP Top 25 teams, and 2) The Big Ten is really, really bad.

4) Arizona (3-0, 0-0, +7)

5) Stanford (3-0, 1-0, +6)

6) Rutgers (3-0, 1-0, +6)

7) Alabama (3-0, 1-0, +5) - Watching Alabama crush their opponents is an almost painful experience.  They play a kind of joyless style of football, but one that worked perfectly in dismantling pre-season Top 10 Arkansas 52-0.  Unfortunately, Alabama doesn't get a boost in this poll thanks to a pesky team called UL-Monroe.  The Tide may actually be punished for their schedule, ironically: As of right now, only two more of their opponents, LSU and MSU, are ranked.

8) Florida (3-0, 2-0, +5)

9) Oregon State (1-0, 0-0, +4) - Through accidents of weather and scheduling, Oregon State now enters Week 4 of the season having played exactly one game.  They visit UCLA next week, however, and that game should give us a better picture of what the Beavers are made of.  If they win, they're almost guaranteed to be a Top 5 team in these pages.

10) Clemson (3-0, 0-0, +4)

11) Ohio (3-0, 0-0, +4)

12) Georgia (3-0, 1-0, +4) - I'm working on a theory about the SEC.  Alabama is far and away the best team in the nation, and LSU is probably #2.  Then you have this untested middle group: Georgia, South Carolina, Florida.  Every week I am unimpressed with Georgia: Coming out slow against Florida Atlantic (tied 14-14 in the 2nd quarter), letting Buffalo back in the game (24-16 at half after leading 24-3), trailing a decent Missouri team at half 10-9 before pulling away for the 41-20 win.  I'm not saying they're not good.  I'm saying they're not great.

13) LSU (3-0, 0-0, +3)

14) Oregon (3-0, 0-0, +3) - After sleepwalking through the first three weeks of the season, the Ducks finally get their chance to make a move at home against Arizona.  They're going to have to clean up their act if they want to make another run at the Pac-12 championship, though: In their 63-14 win over FCS Tennessee Tech, they turned the ball over three times and had over 100 yards of penalties. Unacceptable.

15) Kansas State (3-0, 0-0, +3)

16) South Carolina (3-0, 1-0, +3)
17) Mississippi State (3-0, 1-0, +3)
18) Northwestern (3-0, 0-0, +3)

19) Texas (3-0, 0-0, +3) - Here's my final thought on the SEC hierarchy: The bottom third or so is bad.  Kentucky is bad. (32-31 OT L to Western Kentucky) Mississippi is bad. (66-31 L to Texas) Auburn is not good. (31-28 OT W over UL-Monroe.) These weaknesses should temper some of the successes of the SEC's elite teams as they engage in conference play.

20) Louisville (3-0, 0-0, +3)

21) Florida State (3-0, 1-0, +3) - I've resisted getting on the Florida State bandwagon for over two years, but I am now willing to say that they are pretty good.  They beat a not-good-but-really-not-that-bad Wake Forest team 52-0, and now have a big showdown with defending ACC champ Clemson next week. The winner of that game will have the inside track to the ACC Championship, the Orange Bowl, and maybe, just maybe, the BCS Championship.

22) Iowa State (3-0, 0-0, +3)
23) Minnesota (3-0, 0-0, +3)
24) Ohio State (3-0, 0-0, +3)
25) Oklahoma (2-0, 0-0,+2)

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