1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +22)
2) Notre Dame (12-0, 0-0, +20)
3) Stanford (11-2, 9-1, +20)
4) Florida (11-1, 7-1, +18)
5) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
6) Kansas State (11-1, 8-1, +14)
7) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
8) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
9) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
14) Florida State (11-2, 8-1, +8)
15) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
16) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
17) UCLA (9-4, 6-4, +4)
18) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
19) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
20) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
21) Utah State (10-2, 6-0, -1)
22) Louisville (10-2, 5-2, -1)
23) Michigan (8-4, 6-2, -2)
24) Ball State (9-3, 6-2, -2)
25) Nebraska (10-3, 7-2, -3)
Texas (8-4, 5-4, -4)
Arkansas State (9-3, 7-1, -4)
Cincinnati (9-3, 4-2, -4)
Washington (7-5, 5-4, -5)
Vanderbilt (8-4, 5-3, -5)
Fresno State (9-3, 7-1, -5)
Rutgers (9-3, 5-2, -6)
Arizona (7-5, 4-5, -6)
San Diego State (9-3, 7-1, -6)
Toledo (9-3, 6-2, -6)
USC (7-5, 5-4, -7)
Louisiana Tech (9-3, 4-2, -8)
Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5, -8)
Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4, -8)
Tulsa (10-3, 7-1, -8)
Northwestern (9-3, 5-3, -9)
Penn State (8-4, 6-2, -9)
TCU (7-5, 4-5, -10)
Louisiana-Monroe (8-4, 6-2, -10)
Syracuse (7-5, 5-2, -11)
West Virginia (7-5, 4-5, -11)
Oklahoma State (7-5, 5-4, -12)
Ohio (8-4, 4-4, -12)
Bowling Green (8-4, 6-2, -12)
Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4, 6-3, -12)
Middle Tennessee State (8-4, 6-2, -13)
Arizona State (7-5, 5-4, -13)
Miami (FL) (7-5, 5-3, -13)
Brigham Young (7-5, 0-0, -13)
East Carolina (8-4, 7-1, -14)
North Carolina (8-4, 5-3, -15)
Baylor (7-5, 4-5, -15)
UCF (8-4, 5-2, -16)
Mississippi (6-6, 3-5, -16)
North Carolina State (7-5, 4-4, -16)
Texas-San Antonio (8-4, 3-3, -16)
Wisconsin (8-5, 5-4, -16)
Temple (4-7, 2-5, -17)
Iowa State (6-6, 3-6, -17)
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Western Kentucky (7-5, 4-4, -18)
Pittsburgh (6-6, 3-4, -20)
Missouri (5-7, 2-6, -21)
Nevada (7-5, 4-4, -22)
Duke (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Michigan State (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Tennessee (5-7, 1-7, -25)
Purdue (6-6, 3-5, -25)
Central Michigan (6-6, 4-4, -25)
Virginia Tech (6-6, 4-4, -26)
Georgia Tech (6-7, 5-4, -28)
Rice (6-6, 4-4, -28)
Minnesota (6-6, 2-6, -29)
Arkansas (4-8, 2-6, -29)
Air Force (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Utah (5-7, 3-6, -30)
SMU (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Wake Forest (5-7, 3-5, -31)
Connecticut (5-7, 2-5, -32)
Auburn (3-9, 0-8, -32)
Houston (5-7, 4-4, -32)
Troy (5-7, 3-5, -35)
Marshall (5-7, 4-4, -36)
North Texas (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Miami (OH) (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Buffalo (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Washington State (3-9, 1-8, -37)
Indiana (4-8, 2-6, -39)
Maryland (4-8, 2-6, -39)
Texas State (4-8, 2-4, -39)
California (3-9, 2-7, -39)
New Mexico (4-8, 1-6, -40)
Iowa (4-8, 2-6, -41)
South Florida (3-9, 1-5, -42)
Wyoming (4-8, 3-5, -42)
Florida Atlantic (3-9, 2-6, -43)
Western Michigan (4-8, 2-6, -44)
Virginia (4-8, 2-6, -44)
Memphis (4-8, 4-4, -44)
Kentucky (2-10, 0-8, -47)
UTEP (3-9, 2-6, -48)
UAB (3-9, 2-6, -49)
Hawaii (2-9, 1-7, -49)
Florida International (3-9, 2-6, -50)
South Alabama (2-9, 1-6, -50)
Army (2-9, 0-0, -50)
Boston College (2-10, 1-7, -51)
Colorado (1-11, 1-8, -54)
Illinois (2-10, 0-8, -54)
Eastern Michigan (2-10, 1-7, -55)
Kansas (1-11, 0-9, -58)
Tulane (2-10, 2-6, -58)
New Mexico State (1-11, 0-6, -60)
Akron (1-11, 0-8, -60)
Massachusetts (1-11, 1-7, -61)
Idaho (1-11, 1-5, -62)
UNLV (2-11, 2-6, -63)
Southern Miss (0-12, 0-8, -68)
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Power Rankings - Nov. 25
1) Notre Dame (12-0, 0-0, +20) - Well, congratulations Irish, you did it. A 22-13 win over USC was the last step in a crazy season that included two overtimes, three 3-point wins, and trips to Oklahoma, Massachusetts, California, and Ireland. Nine of their opponents will have 6-wins or more, three have 8 or more, and 2 could still be going to BCS bowls. Despite the fact that they needed literal miracles to beat BYU, Stanford, and Pitt, they deserve to be #1 and - with the exception of that Pitt game - they really have looked it ever since their 30-13 win at Oklahoma, especially their defense, which only gave up more than 17 points all season (against Pitt!).
But does anyone actually believe that they will stand a chance against Alabama?
2) Florida (11-1, 7-1, +18) - There were a few minutes yesterday when I really thought all the balls were going to bounce Oregon's way, and get them back into the National Championship. The Ducks had just beaten Oregon State, UCLA and Stanford were tied, and Florida State had just scored 17 consecutive points to open up a 20-13 lead over Florida. Then the Gator defense took over, forcing a fumble, a 3-and-out, and a turnover on downs, leading to 24 consecutive points and a 37-26 win. On those three drives, Florida State had 41 yards on 16 plays, 2.5 yards per play. The Gators finish the season 4-1 against the AP top 13, and, if it were not for the Irish, would be playing the winner of Alabama-Georgia in yet another all-SEC NC game. As it is, they will have to settle for the Sugar Bowl.
3) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +17) - Chase Stuart, at footballperspective.com, has an excellent observation about the SEC: The top 6 teams in the conference were a perfect 30-0 against the rest of the SEC. The bottom 4 (Auburn, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee) were 0-26 against the rest of the conference, with 18 of those losses coming by 10 or more points. The Crimson Tide did not play Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina, but did beat Arkansas 52-0, Tennessee 44-13, and Auburn 49-0. The Bulldogs did not play Alabama, LSU, or Texas A&M, but notched wins over Tennessee 51-44, Kentucky 29-24, and Auburn, 38-0. These two teams will play a semi-final next week, and the winner will play Notre Dame for the national title. And I would call foul if it were not for the fact that nobody seems to be able to beat the SEC on the field.
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17) - The Ducks ended their season on a high note, beating Oregon State 48-24, finishing the season 11-1, and most likely going to a fourth consecutive BCS bowl, probably the Fiesta Bowl against Kansas State or Oklahoma. It's interesting though; after the final week of carnage, the Ducks ended exactly 1-1 against the Top 25. But they also had wins against #28 Washington, #29 Arkansas State, #32 Fresno State, #33 Arizona, and #37 USC, meaning that 7 of their 11 wins came against bowl eligible teams. But without that Stanford win, there is no "signature" victory.
5) Stanford (10-2, 8-1, +17) - Stanford, on the other hand, has wins against #4 Oregon, #15 Oregon State, #16 UCLA, and #20 San Jose State (remember that?). They were able to convincingly shut Oregon's last door to the Rose Bowl with a 35-17 win at UCLA, and now have to do it again to reach their first Rose Bowl since 2000, a 17-9 loss to Wisconsin. Interestingly enough, that Stanford team lost to San Jose State 39-44. Stanford's last Rose Bowl win was in 1972, a 13-12 win over Michigan. That team, the last to be the "Stanford Indians," also lost to San Jose State, 13-12. (Apparently this is a thing. Stanford-San Jose State? I had no idea.)
6) Georgia (11-1, 7-1, +14) - Am I pissed that Georgia, a team that is exactly 1-1 against the Top 25, who's three best wins are against #3 Florida, #32 Vanderbilt and #57 Mississippi is one win away from the National Championship? Yes, yes I am. (The fact that #71 Georgia Tech, who Georgia beat 42-10, is one win away from the ACC Championship and the Orange Bowl, I find hilarious.)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
9) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Kent State (11-1, 8-0, +9)
14) Florida State (10-2, 7-1, +7) - Oh, ACC you are terrible. The conference went 0-4 on Saturday against the SEC, and now finish the season 6-18 against teams from BCS-conferences + ND + BYU. The thing that I noticed was that Florida State, a team that was supposed to pride itself on its defense, allowed 394 yards against Florida, 244 of them on the ground, at a rate of 5.2 yards per rush. By comparison, Louisiana-Lafayette allowed 4.4 yards per rush when they lost to Florida 27-20. But look on the bright side, ACC: at least you're not the Big East.
15) Oregon State (8-3, 6-3, +5) - The Beavers were hanging tough with the Ducks in the third quarter, having just scored a touchdown to cut the lead to 20-17, and Reser Stadium was rocking. Then that weird thing happened where you blink, and Oregon State commits four turnovers, including three interceptions by Sean Mannion, and the Ducks score 14 points in 2:44 and 28 in less than 12, and suddenly it's a blow-out. Even still, this has been a great season for the Beavers, assuming they can put away FCS Nicholls State next week in a make-up game. A bowl win against a Big 12 team in the Alamo Bowl would be a great way to end the season.
16) UCLA (9-3, 6-3, +5) - A week after winning at home against USC, the Bruins looked outclassed in losing to Stanford, 17-35. They have to travel to Palo Alto now, for a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship. I do not think they will win. However, they could still be going to the Holiday Bowl, which is way better than being 6-7 and losing to Illinois in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, like they did last year. Also, assuming that the Ducks get invited to the Fiesta Bowl, there could be 3 Pac-12 vs. Big 12 bowl games this year. Also, on the last night of the regular season, Pac-12 teams went 1-5 at home, the only win being Wazzu over Washington in the Apple Cup. (Pac-12 road teams were 4-1.)
17) Northern Illinois (11-1, 8-0, +5)
18) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
19) Nebraska (10-2, 7-1, +3)
20) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
21) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1) - Boise State did that zen thing where you just sit at home and watch the universe work for you. Last week, they were #22 in the BCS rankings. Yesterday, every team between #15 and #21 lost. This morning, the Broncos are #15 in the Coaches' Poll, because the coaches don't watch football. (Boise State's a much more sensible 25th in the AP.) But if Boise State finishes in the top 16 in the BCS, ahead of the MAC champion (they're 3 spots ahead of NIU, 4 ahead of Kent State in the Coaches') and ahead of one BCS champion (i.e., Louisville, Rutgers. Wisconsin or Georgia Tech if they win their championship games) then Boise State is in a BCS game! But come on, guys. They lost to 6-6 Michigan State. They have wins against 0-12 Southern Miss, 2-11 UNLV, 2-9 Hawaii, 4-8 New Mexico, and 3-8 Colorado State, all five of whom are in My Bottom 25. As much as I love the Smurf Turf, this is not a BCS-quality team.
22) Rutgers (9-2, 5-1, 0)
23) Utah State (10-2, 6-0, -1)
24) Texas (8-3, 5-3, -2)
25) Michigan (8-4, 6-2, -2) - The Wolverines back their way into the Top 25 thanks to losses by Texas, Louisville, Rutgers, Washington, Arizona, and USC. At the end of the season, they can point to the fact that their four losses came to 11-1 Alabama, 12-0 Notre Dame, 10-2 Nebraska, and 12-0 Ohio State. On the other hand, their best win is probably against 9-3 Northwestern, their only win against a team with a winning record, although they did beat four 6-6 teams. That should be enough to get to a New Year's Bowl against the SEC.
But does anyone actually believe that they will stand a chance against Alabama?
2) Florida (11-1, 7-1, +18) - There were a few minutes yesterday when I really thought all the balls were going to bounce Oregon's way, and get them back into the National Championship. The Ducks had just beaten Oregon State, UCLA and Stanford were tied, and Florida State had just scored 17 consecutive points to open up a 20-13 lead over Florida. Then the Gator defense took over, forcing a fumble, a 3-and-out, and a turnover on downs, leading to 24 consecutive points and a 37-26 win. On those three drives, Florida State had 41 yards on 16 plays, 2.5 yards per play. The Gators finish the season 4-1 against the AP top 13, and, if it were not for the Irish, would be playing the winner of Alabama-Georgia in yet another all-SEC NC game. As it is, they will have to settle for the Sugar Bowl.
3) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +17) - Chase Stuart, at footballperspective.com, has an excellent observation about the SEC: The top 6 teams in the conference were a perfect 30-0 against the rest of the SEC. The bottom 4 (Auburn, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee) were 0-26 against the rest of the conference, with 18 of those losses coming by 10 or more points. The Crimson Tide did not play Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina, but did beat Arkansas 52-0, Tennessee 44-13, and Auburn 49-0. The Bulldogs did not play Alabama, LSU, or Texas A&M, but notched wins over Tennessee 51-44, Kentucky 29-24, and Auburn, 38-0. These two teams will play a semi-final next week, and the winner will play Notre Dame for the national title. And I would call foul if it were not for the fact that nobody seems to be able to beat the SEC on the field.
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17) - The Ducks ended their season on a high note, beating Oregon State 48-24, finishing the season 11-1, and most likely going to a fourth consecutive BCS bowl, probably the Fiesta Bowl against Kansas State or Oklahoma. It's interesting though; after the final week of carnage, the Ducks ended exactly 1-1 against the Top 25. But they also had wins against #28 Washington, #29 Arkansas State, #32 Fresno State, #33 Arizona, and #37 USC, meaning that 7 of their 11 wins came against bowl eligible teams. But without that Stanford win, there is no "signature" victory.
5) Stanford (10-2, 8-1, +17) - Stanford, on the other hand, has wins against #4 Oregon, #15 Oregon State, #16 UCLA, and #20 San Jose State (remember that?). They were able to convincingly shut Oregon's last door to the Rose Bowl with a 35-17 win at UCLA, and now have to do it again to reach their first Rose Bowl since 2000, a 17-9 loss to Wisconsin. Interestingly enough, that Stanford team lost to San Jose State 39-44. Stanford's last Rose Bowl win was in 1972, a 13-12 win over Michigan. That team, the last to be the "Stanford Indians," also lost to San Jose State, 13-12. (Apparently this is a thing. Stanford-San Jose State? I had no idea.)
6) Georgia (11-1, 7-1, +14) - Am I pissed that Georgia, a team that is exactly 1-1 against the Top 25, who's three best wins are against #3 Florida, #32 Vanderbilt and #57 Mississippi is one win away from the National Championship? Yes, yes I am. (The fact that #71 Georgia Tech, who Georgia beat 42-10, is one win away from the ACC Championship and the Orange Bowl, I find hilarious.)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
9) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Kent State (11-1, 8-0, +9)
14) Florida State (10-2, 7-1, +7) - Oh, ACC you are terrible. The conference went 0-4 on Saturday against the SEC, and now finish the season 6-18 against teams from BCS-conferences + ND + BYU. The thing that I noticed was that Florida State, a team that was supposed to pride itself on its defense, allowed 394 yards against Florida, 244 of them on the ground, at a rate of 5.2 yards per rush. By comparison, Louisiana-Lafayette allowed 4.4 yards per rush when they lost to Florida 27-20. But look on the bright side, ACC: at least you're not the Big East.
15) Oregon State (8-3, 6-3, +5) - The Beavers were hanging tough with the Ducks in the third quarter, having just scored a touchdown to cut the lead to 20-17, and Reser Stadium was rocking. Then that weird thing happened where you blink, and Oregon State commits four turnovers, including three interceptions by Sean Mannion, and the Ducks score 14 points in 2:44 and 28 in less than 12, and suddenly it's a blow-out. Even still, this has been a great season for the Beavers, assuming they can put away FCS Nicholls State next week in a make-up game. A bowl win against a Big 12 team in the Alamo Bowl would be a great way to end the season.
16) UCLA (9-3, 6-3, +5) - A week after winning at home against USC, the Bruins looked outclassed in losing to Stanford, 17-35. They have to travel to Palo Alto now, for a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship. I do not think they will win. However, they could still be going to the Holiday Bowl, which is way better than being 6-7 and losing to Illinois in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, like they did last year. Also, assuming that the Ducks get invited to the Fiesta Bowl, there could be 3 Pac-12 vs. Big 12 bowl games this year. Also, on the last night of the regular season, Pac-12 teams went 1-5 at home, the only win being Wazzu over Washington in the Apple Cup. (Pac-12 road teams were 4-1.)
17) Northern Illinois (11-1, 8-0, +5)
18) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
19) Nebraska (10-2, 7-1, +3)
20) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
21) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1) - Boise State did that zen thing where you just sit at home and watch the universe work for you. Last week, they were #22 in the BCS rankings. Yesterday, every team between #15 and #21 lost. This morning, the Broncos are #15 in the Coaches' Poll, because the coaches don't watch football. (Boise State's a much more sensible 25th in the AP.) But if Boise State finishes in the top 16 in the BCS, ahead of the MAC champion (they're 3 spots ahead of NIU, 4 ahead of Kent State in the Coaches') and ahead of one BCS champion (i.e., Louisville, Rutgers. Wisconsin or Georgia Tech if they win their championship games) then Boise State is in a BCS game! But come on, guys. They lost to 6-6 Michigan State. They have wins against 0-12 Southern Miss, 2-11 UNLV, 2-9 Hawaii, 4-8 New Mexico, and 3-8 Colorado State, all five of whom are in My Bottom 25. As much as I love the Smurf Turf, this is not a BCS-quality team.
22) Rutgers (9-2, 5-1, 0)
23) Utah State (10-2, 6-0, -1)
24) Texas (8-3, 5-3, -2)
25) Michigan (8-4, 6-2, -2) - The Wolverines back their way into the Top 25 thanks to losses by Texas, Louisville, Rutgers, Washington, Arizona, and USC. At the end of the season, they can point to the fact that their four losses came to 11-1 Alabama, 12-0 Notre Dame, 10-2 Nebraska, and 12-0 Ohio State. On the other hand, their best win is probably against 9-3 Northwestern, their only win against a team with a winning record, although they did beat four 6-6 teams. That should be enough to get to a New Year's Bowl against the SEC.
My Top 25
1) Notre Dame (12-0, 0-0, +20)
2) Florida (11-1, 7-1, +18)
3) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +17)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Stanford (10-2, 8-1, +17)
6) Georgia (11-1, 7-1, +14)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
9) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Kent State (11-1, 8-0, +9)
14) Florida State (10-2, 7-1, +7)
15) Oregon State (8-3, 6-3, +5)
16) UCLA (9-3, 6-3, +5)
17) Northern Illinois (11-1, 8-0, +5)
18) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
19) Nebraska (10-2, 7-1, +3)
20) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
21) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1)
22) Rutgers (9-2, 5-1, 0)
23) Utah State (10-2, 6-0, -1)
24) Texas (8-3, 5-3, -2)
25) Michigan (8-4, 6-2, -2)
Ball State (9-3, 6-2, -2)
Louisville (9-2, 4-2, -3)
Washington (7-5, 5-4, -5)
Arkansas State (8-3, 6-1, -5)
Cincinnati (8-3, 3-2, -5)
Vanderbilt (8-4, 5-3, -5)
Fresno State (9-3, 7-1, -5)
Arizona (7-5, 4-5, -6)
Oklahoma State (7-4, 5-3, -6)
San Diego State (9-3, 7-1, -6)
TCU (7-4, 4-4, -6)
USC (7-5, 5-4, -7)
Toledo (8-3, 5-2, -7)
Middle Tennessee State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Louisiana Tech (9-3, 4-2, -8)
Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5, -8)
Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4, -8)
Tulsa (9-3, 6-1, -9)
Northwestern (9-3, 5-3, -9)
Penn State (8-4, 6-2, -9)
UCF (8-3, 5-1, -10)
Louisiana-Monroe (7-4, 5-2, -11)
Syracuse (7-5, 5-2, -11)
Ohio (8-4, 4-4, -12)
Bowling Green (8-4, 6-2, -12)
West Virginia (6-5, 3-5, -12)
Arizona State (7-5, 5-4, -13)
Miami (FL) (7-5, 5-3, -13)
Brigham Young (7-5, 0-0, -13)
East Carolina (8-4, 7-1, -14)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
North Carolina (8-4, 5-3, -15)
Mississippi (6-6, 3-5, -16)
North Carolina State (7-5, 4-4, -16)
Texas-San Antonio (8-4, 3-3, -16)
Baylor (6-5, 3-5, -16)
Temple (4-7, 2-5, -17)
Iowa State (6-6, 3-6, -17)
Nevada (7-4, 4-3, -17)
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Western Kentucky (7-5, 4-4, -18)
Wisconsin (7-5, 4-4, -19)
Missouri (5-7, 2-6, -21)
Pittsburgh (5-6, 2-4, -21)
Duke (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Michigan State (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Georgia Tech (6-6, 5-3, -25)
Tennessee (5-7, 1-7, -25)
Purdue (6-6, 3-5, -25)
Central Michigan (6-6, 4-4, -25)
Connecticut (5-6, 2-4, -26)
Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4, -27)
Minnesota (6-6, 2-6, -29)
Arkansas (4-8, 2-6, -29)
Rice (5-6, 3-4, -29)
Air Force (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Utah (5-7, 3-6, -30)
SMU (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Wake Forest (5-7, 3-5, -31)
North Texas (4-7, 3-4, -31)
Auburn (3-9, 0-8, -32)
Houston (4-7, 4-4, -33)
Troy (5-7, 3-5, -35)
South Florida (3-8, 1-4, -36)
Marshall (5-7, 4-4, -36)
Miami (OH) (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Buffalo (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Florida Atlantic (3-8, 2-5, -37)
Washington State (3-9, 1-8, -37)
Western Michigan (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Virginia (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Indiana (4-8, 2-6, -39)
Maryland (4-8, 2-6, -39)
Texas State (3-8, 1-4, -40)
Iowa (4-8, 2-6, -41)
Wyoming (4-8, 3-5, -42)
California (3-9, 2-7, -39)
New Mexico (4-8, 1-6, -40)
UAB (3-8, 2-5, -43)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Colorado State (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Florida International (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Memphis (4-8, 4-4, -44)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Kentucky (2-10, 0-8, -47)
Hawaii (2-9, 1-7, -49)
South Alabama (2-9, 1-6, -50)
Army (2-9, 0-0, -50)
Boston College (2-10, 1-7, -51)
Colorado (1-11, 1-8, -54)
Illinois (2-10, 0-8, -54)
New Mexico State (1-10, 0-5, -54)
Eastern Michigan (2-10, 1-7, -55)
Tulane (2-10, 2-6, -58)
Akron (1-11, 0-8, -60)
Massachusetts (1-11, 1-7, -61)
Idaho (1-11, 1-5, -62)
UNLV (2-11, 2-6, -63)
Southern Miss (0-12, 0-8, -68)
2) Florida (11-1, 7-1, +18)
3) Alabama (11-1, 7-1, +17)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Stanford (10-2, 8-1, +17)
6) Georgia (11-1, 7-1, +14)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
9) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Kent State (11-1, 8-0, +9)
14) Florida State (10-2, 7-1, +7)
15) Oregon State (8-3, 6-3, +5)
16) UCLA (9-3, 6-3, +5)
17) Northern Illinois (11-1, 8-0, +5)
18) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
19) Nebraska (10-2, 7-1, +3)
20) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
21) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1)
22) Rutgers (9-2, 5-1, 0)
23) Utah State (10-2, 6-0, -1)
24) Texas (8-3, 5-3, -2)
25) Michigan (8-4, 6-2, -2)
Ball State (9-3, 6-2, -2)
Louisville (9-2, 4-2, -3)
Washington (7-5, 5-4, -5)
Arkansas State (8-3, 6-1, -5)
Cincinnati (8-3, 3-2, -5)
Vanderbilt (8-4, 5-3, -5)
Fresno State (9-3, 7-1, -5)
Arizona (7-5, 4-5, -6)
Oklahoma State (7-4, 5-3, -6)
San Diego State (9-3, 7-1, -6)
TCU (7-4, 4-4, -6)
USC (7-5, 5-4, -7)
Toledo (8-3, 5-2, -7)
Middle Tennessee State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Louisiana Tech (9-3, 4-2, -8)
Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5, -8)
Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4, -8)
Tulsa (9-3, 6-1, -9)
Northwestern (9-3, 5-3, -9)
Penn State (8-4, 6-2, -9)
UCF (8-3, 5-1, -10)
Louisiana-Monroe (7-4, 5-2, -11)
Syracuse (7-5, 5-2, -11)
Ohio (8-4, 4-4, -12)
Bowling Green (8-4, 6-2, -12)
West Virginia (6-5, 3-5, -12)
Arizona State (7-5, 5-4, -13)
Miami (FL) (7-5, 5-3, -13)
Brigham Young (7-5, 0-0, -13)
East Carolina (8-4, 7-1, -14)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
North Carolina (8-4, 5-3, -15)
Mississippi (6-6, 3-5, -16)
North Carolina State (7-5, 4-4, -16)
Texas-San Antonio (8-4, 3-3, -16)
Baylor (6-5, 3-5, -16)
Temple (4-7, 2-5, -17)
Iowa State (6-6, 3-6, -17)
Nevada (7-4, 4-3, -17)
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Western Kentucky (7-5, 4-4, -18)
Wisconsin (7-5, 4-4, -19)
Missouri (5-7, 2-6, -21)
Pittsburgh (5-6, 2-4, -21)
Duke (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Michigan State (6-6, 3-5, -22)
Georgia Tech (6-6, 5-3, -25)
Tennessee (5-7, 1-7, -25)
Purdue (6-6, 3-5, -25)
Central Michigan (6-6, 4-4, -25)
Connecticut (5-6, 2-4, -26)
Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4, -27)
Minnesota (6-6, 2-6, -29)
Arkansas (4-8, 2-6, -29)
Rice (5-6, 3-4, -29)
Air Force (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Utah (5-7, 3-6, -30)
SMU (6-6, 5-3, -30)
Wake Forest (5-7, 3-5, -31)
North Texas (4-7, 3-4, -31)
Auburn (3-9, 0-8, -32)
Houston (4-7, 4-4, -33)
Troy (5-7, 3-5, -35)
South Florida (3-8, 1-4, -36)
Marshall (5-7, 4-4, -36)
Miami (OH) (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Buffalo (4-8, 3-5, -37)
Florida Atlantic (3-8, 2-5, -37)
Washington State (3-9, 1-8, -37)
Western Michigan (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Virginia (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Indiana (4-8, 2-6, -39)
Maryland (4-8, 2-6, -39)
Texas State (3-8, 1-4, -40)
Iowa (4-8, 2-6, -41)
Wyoming (4-8, 3-5, -42)
California (3-9, 2-7, -39)
New Mexico (4-8, 1-6, -40)
UAB (3-8, 2-5, -43)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Colorado State (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Florida International (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Memphis (4-8, 4-4, -44)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Kentucky (2-10, 0-8, -47)
Hawaii (2-9, 1-7, -49)
South Alabama (2-9, 1-6, -50)
Army (2-9, 0-0, -50)
Boston College (2-10, 1-7, -51)
Colorado (1-11, 1-8, -54)
Illinois (2-10, 0-8, -54)
New Mexico State (1-10, 0-5, -54)
Eastern Michigan (2-10, 1-7, -55)
Tulane (2-10, 2-6, -58)
Akron (1-11, 0-8, -60)
Massachusetts (1-11, 1-7, -61)
Idaho (1-11, 1-5, -62)
UNLV (2-11, 2-6, -63)
Southern Miss (0-12, 0-8, -68)
Friday, November 23, 2012
Strengths of Schedule
Here's my Top 25's Strengths of Schedule:
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Some of my observations:
- Stanford has played a crazy hard schedule, which is why I think they ought to be ranked ahead of Oregon for the time being. They are 3-2 against My Top 25, with a win over one-loss Oregon and a loss to undefeated Notre Dame. Imagine the conversations we would be having if they beaten either Notre Dame or Washington. Their SoS is only going to rise, playing UCLA once more, maybe twice more.
- The SEC is the toughest conference, followed closely by the Pac-12, with Alabama, LSU, and Florida all having very hard schedules. The biggest exception is Georgia, who has one quality win, over Florida. Other than that, they have exactly one win over a team with a winning record, 7-4 Vanderbilt. If Georgia gets to the BCS, this will be a big issue.
- I was surprised at how weak UCLA's schedule is, despite wins over Nebraska and USC. They'll get a big boost after they play Stanford, but they also lucked out by avoiding both Oregon and Washington this year.
- What claim will the winner of Florida-Florida State have to the BCS? FSU's schedule looks like poop, with 2 FCS teams and only one team - Clemson - guaranteed to win more than six games. The Massey computer right now has the Seminoles 27th, behind teams like 8-3 Northwestern and 7-4 Vanderbilt. They probably can't get to the BCS game, as they would remain behind Notre Dame even if they lose. Florida, on the other hand, already has the hardest schedule of all 1-loss teams, and are already #2 in the Massey computer. If they win and Notre Dame loses, the voters would have to move en masse to Oregon or Kansas State (or Notre Dame) in order to avoid an all-SEC championship.
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| 1) Notre Dame | -14.54545455 | ||||||
| 2) Alabama | -16.63636364 | ||||||
| 3) Georgia | -23 | ||||||
| 4) Florida | -12.90909091 | ||||||
| 5) Stanford | -9.727272727 | ||||||
| 6) Oregon | -18.90909091 | ||||||
| 7) Kansas State | -18.63636364 | ||||||
| 8) LSU | -13.90909091 | ||||||
| 9) Texas A&M | -18.27272727 | ||||||
| 10) Ohio State | -24.90909091 | ||||||
| 11) Oklahoma | -15.9 | ||||||
| 12) Florida State | -30.27272727 | ||||||
| 13) Kent State | -33.81818182 | ||||||
| 14) Oregon State | -12.4 | ||||||
| 15) South Carolina | -18.54545455 | ||||||
| 16) Rutgers | -26.8 | ||||||
| 17) Clemson | -25.36363636 | ||||||
| 18) UCLA | -20.90909091 | ||||||
| 19) Texas | -17.6 | ||||||
| 20) Northern Illinois | -37.45454545 | ||||||
| 21) Louisville | -30 | ||||||
| 22) Nebraska | -17.18181818 | ||||||
| 23) Boise State | -32.63636364 | ||||||
| 24) Washington | -13.72727273 | ||||||
| 25) San Jose State | -26 | And here it is in order of SoS: |
| 5) Stanford | -9.727272727 | Pac-12 |
| 14) Oregon State | -12.4 | Pac-12 |
| 4) Florida | -12.90909091 | SEC |
| 24) Washington | -13.72727273 | Pac-12 |
| 8) LSU | -13.90909091 | SEC |
| 1) Notre Dame | -14.54545455 | Independent |
| 11) Oklahoma | -15.9 | Big 12 |
| 2) Alabama | -16.63636364 | SEC |
| 22) Nebraska | -17.18181818 | Big Ten |
| 19) Texas | -17.6 | Big 12 |
| 9) Texas A&M | -18.27272727 | SEC |
| 15) South Carolina | -18.54545455 | SEC |
| 7) Kansas State | -18.63636364 | Big 12 |
| 6) Oregon | -18.90909091 | Pac-12 |
| 18) UCLA | -20.90909091 | Pac-12 |
| 3) Georgia | -23 | SEC |
| 10) Ohio State | -24.90909091 | Big Ten |
| 17) Clemson | -25.36363636 | ACC |
| 25) San Jose State | -26 | WAC |
| 16) Rutgers | -26.8 | Big East |
| 21) Louisville | -30 | Big East |
| 12) Florida State | -30.27272727 | ACC |
| 23) Boise State | -32.63636364 | MWC |
| 13) Kent State | -33.81818182 | MAC |
| 20) Northern Illinois | -37.45454545 | MAC |
Some of my observations:
- Stanford has played a crazy hard schedule, which is why I think they ought to be ranked ahead of Oregon for the time being. They are 3-2 against My Top 25, with a win over one-loss Oregon and a loss to undefeated Notre Dame. Imagine the conversations we would be having if they beaten either Notre Dame or Washington. Their SoS is only going to rise, playing UCLA once more, maybe twice more.
- The SEC is the toughest conference, followed closely by the Pac-12, with Alabama, LSU, and Florida all having very hard schedules. The biggest exception is Georgia, who has one quality win, over Florida. Other than that, they have exactly one win over a team with a winning record, 7-4 Vanderbilt. If Georgia gets to the BCS, this will be a big issue.
- I was surprised at how weak UCLA's schedule is, despite wins over Nebraska and USC. They'll get a big boost after they play Stanford, but they also lucked out by avoiding both Oregon and Washington this year.
- What claim will the winner of Florida-Florida State have to the BCS? FSU's schedule looks like poop, with 2 FCS teams and only one team - Clemson - guaranteed to win more than six games. The Massey computer right now has the Seminoles 27th, behind teams like 8-3 Northwestern and 7-4 Vanderbilt. They probably can't get to the BCS game, as they would remain behind Notre Dame even if they lose. Florida, on the other hand, already has the hardest schedule of all 1-loss teams, and are already #2 in the Massey computer. If they win and Notre Dame loses, the voters would have to move en masse to Oregon or Kansas State (or Notre Dame) in order to avoid an all-SEC championship.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Scenario #3: The One That I Want
Scenario #3: The One That I Want
This is the most likely scenario that gets the Ducks in the National Championship against Alabama. It entails several outcomes of varying probability. In the Pac-12, the Ducks beat the Beavers and UCLA upsets Stanford, and then Oregon beats UCLA for the Pac-12 championship. Then, Notre Dame loses at USC. These, on their own, might be enough to get Oregon into the BCS game. However, I added a few extra insurers: Kansas State loses a second game to Texas, and Florida State beats Florida, ending whatever (slim) chances they had of getting back into the championship. I still have Alabama beating Georgia for the SEC championship. In the Big Ten, I bail out the Rose Bowl by having two B1G upsets: Iowa over Nebraska, and Michigan over Ohio State, then Michigan over Wisconsin in the B1G championship. This lets them avoid either a UCLA-Nebraska rematch or UCLA- (8-5) Wisconsin.
BCS: #1 Alabama vs #2 Oregon
Rose: #8 UCLA vs #18 Michigan
Fiesta: #10 Oklahoma vs Nebraska
Sugar: #4 Notre Dame vs #6 LSU
Orange: #3 Florida State vs #16 Rutgers
Post-Script: After looking at the results, the Fiesta is in a tight spot. It takes Big 12 Champ Oklahoma, but can't really match them up against anyone. They can't pick from the SEC (Georgia), the Pac-12 (Stanford), or the Big 12 (Texas). The Sugar Bowl will surely snatch Notre Dame right up. That leaves Big East champ Rutgers from New Jersey, or ACC runner-up Clemson from South Carolina. So I'll say that the Fiesta says screw it and takes 9-3 Nebraska, and matches them up against their old rivals.
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Oregon (12-1, 9-1, +22)
3) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
4) Notre Dame (11-1, 0-0, +13)
5) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
6) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
7) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) UCLA (10-3, 7-3, +11)
9) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
10) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
11) Stanford (9-3, 7-2, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Texas (10-2, 7-2, +10)
14) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
15) Kansas State (10-2, 7-2, +8)
16) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
17) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
18) Michigan (10-3, 8-1, +7)
19) Ohio State (11-1, 7-1, +5)
20) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
21) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) Arizona (8-4, 5-4, +1)
This is the most likely scenario that gets the Ducks in the National Championship against Alabama. It entails several outcomes of varying probability. In the Pac-12, the Ducks beat the Beavers and UCLA upsets Stanford, and then Oregon beats UCLA for the Pac-12 championship. Then, Notre Dame loses at USC. These, on their own, might be enough to get Oregon into the BCS game. However, I added a few extra insurers: Kansas State loses a second game to Texas, and Florida State beats Florida, ending whatever (slim) chances they had of getting back into the championship. I still have Alabama beating Georgia for the SEC championship. In the Big Ten, I bail out the Rose Bowl by having two B1G upsets: Iowa over Nebraska, and Michigan over Ohio State, then Michigan over Wisconsin in the B1G championship. This lets them avoid either a UCLA-Nebraska rematch or UCLA- (8-5) Wisconsin.
BCS: #1 Alabama vs #2 Oregon
Rose: #8 UCLA vs #18 Michigan
Fiesta: #10 Oklahoma vs Nebraska
Sugar: #4 Notre Dame vs #6 LSU
Orange: #3 Florida State vs #16 Rutgers
Post-Script: After looking at the results, the Fiesta is in a tight spot. It takes Big 12 Champ Oklahoma, but can't really match them up against anyone. They can't pick from the SEC (Georgia), the Pac-12 (Stanford), or the Big 12 (Texas). The Sugar Bowl will surely snatch Notre Dame right up. That leaves Big East champ Rutgers from New Jersey, or ACC runner-up Clemson from South Carolina. So I'll say that the Fiesta says screw it and takes 9-3 Nebraska, and matches them up against their old rivals.
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Oregon (12-1, 9-1, +22)
3) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
4) Notre Dame (11-1, 0-0, +13)
5) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
6) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
7) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) UCLA (10-3, 7-3, +11)
9) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
10) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
11) Stanford (9-3, 7-2, +10)
12) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
13) Texas (10-2, 7-2, +10)
14) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
15) Kansas State (10-2, 7-2, +8)
16) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
17) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
18) Michigan (10-3, 8-1, +7)
19) Ohio State (11-1, 7-1, +5)
20) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
21) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) Arizona (8-4, 5-4, +1)
Monday, November 19, 2012
Power Rankings
Notre Dame (11-0, 0-0, +19) - Well, well, well, look who's left standing? While Kansas State and Oregon stumbled, the Irish took care of business, whooping 5-6 Wake Forest 38-0 at home. Notre Dame has one obstacle left in their way, USC. Despite being 7-4, the Trojans are a very dangerous team, and would love nothing more than taking out their frustrations by ruining Notre Dame's perfect season. But here's a thought: Could Notre Dame still get to the BCS even if they lose? They would have wins over Stanford, Oklahoma, and Michigan, all of whom are still eligible to win their conferences. The Ducks might not even win the Pac-12, and the Wildcats won't get a chance to win a conference championship game. And I believe that the voters will do everything they can to avoid an all-SEC championship game, after last year's snoozer.
Alabama (10-1, 6-1, +16) - I'm just going to do the whole SEC as one, as they won 49-0 over West Carolina (not a state), 23-0 over Jacksonville State (not a state), and 45-14 over Georgia Southern (maybe a cocktail? that would be a good bourbon drink.) The SEC champion is virtually guaranteed to play for the national championship, against Notre Dame if they beat 'SC. But what if the Irish lose? Would voters promote an 11-1 Florida team that will have just beaten the Seminoles? Would they take an 11-1 Oregon that didn't play for its own conference championship? 11-1 Notre Dame? Will they say screw it and have Alabama play Ohio State on a luxury liner in international waters, where NCAA sanctions don't apply? The possibilities are endless.
Stanford (9-2, 7-1, +14) - Say what you will, I do really like Stanford, especially their coach, David Shaw. When Jim Harbaugh was Stanford's coach, he was all bluster, and that worked well for him. Shaw however, is quiet and unassuming, spending all week talking up the Ducks, and then having his team prepared. The Cardinal ran their game plan and stuck to it, containing Oregon's running backs and settling for winning the field position game while waiting for their opportunities to score. Stanford is now in the weird position of needing to beat UCLA twice in order to win the Pac-12 and get to the Rose Bowl.
Oregon (10-1, 7-1, +13) - D'oh! The Ducks lost at home for the second season in a row, and I think this one will smart for a long time. It will restart the questions about Oregon's ability to beat teams with an elite "SEC" style of defense. It will raise questions about Chip Kelly's decisions to twice go for it on fourth down, leaving points on the board in a game that the Ducks ended up losing 14-17 in overtime. And why can't the Ducks get a field goal kicker!? Oregon is now on the outside looking in for not only the BCS, but also the Rose: They need to beat Oregon State and have Stanford lose to UCLA.
Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1, +9) - Oklahoma beat West Virginia 50-49 on a last second touchdown pass. Combined with Kansas State's loss, the Sooners' win keeps them alive in the Big 12. In order to win it, and its Fiesta Bowl bid, Oklahoma needs wins against Oklahoma State and TCU, and have Texas beat Kansas State. So, for one week, Sooner fans will become Texas fans. And, because I'm trying really hard to see the silver lining, there is a possibility for an Oregon-Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl this year.
Kent State (10-1, 7-0, +8) - The Kent State Golden Flashes defeated Bowling Green 31-24, and the MAC Championship is now set between them and Northern Illinois. Kent State's signature win this season was 35-23 at Rutgers (arguably the best team in the Big East), and their lone loss was 14-47 at Kentucky (arguably the worst team in the SEC).
Oregon State (8-2, 6-2, +7) - The Beavers steamrolled Cal 62-14 and, even though Oregon's loss might take some of the shine off, the Civil War game next week is still going to be huge. The Beavers can't get to the Pac-12 championship, but they could beat the Ducks and make it impossible for them to do so, and maybe a 10-2 Oregon State team would be just enough to get a BCS at-large berth. (Probably not, though.)
UCLA (9-2, 6-2, +6) - I have so much I want to say after UCLA'a 38-28 win over USC in the Battle of Los Angeles. It was UCLA's first win over USC since 2006, and one that clinched a berth in the Pac-12 championship, for reals this time. Johnathan Franklin rushed for 160 yards and 2 TDs, and - if the Big 12 is the conference of the quarterback - the Pac-12 is the conference of the running back. USC became the first pre-season No. 1 team since 1984 to lose 4 games. It was the first time it rained on UCLA-USC since 1961, also won by UCLA. Special teams! Matt Barkley threw two interceptions, the Trojans missed two field goals and had two blocked punts, and UCLA averaged 42 yards per punt compared to USC's 30. Also, how come good basketball teams like UCLA, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina, are blue, but good football teams like USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Florida State are all red?
Washington (7-4, 5-3, +1) - Welcome back Washington, the best 4-loss team in the country! Their 38-3 win over Colorado was their fourth in a row, and they are 2-2 against my top 25, 1-2 against my top 8. They finish up next week in the Apple Cup against Washington State, and could count the season as a success with a win and a good bowl berth, maybe the Sun Bowl against the ACC or the Holiday Bowl against the Big 12.
Alabama (10-1, 6-1, +16) - I'm just going to do the whole SEC as one, as they won 49-0 over West Carolina (not a state), 23-0 over Jacksonville State (not a state), and 45-14 over Georgia Southern (maybe a cocktail? that would be a good bourbon drink.) The SEC champion is virtually guaranteed to play for the national championship, against Notre Dame if they beat 'SC. But what if the Irish lose? Would voters promote an 11-1 Florida team that will have just beaten the Seminoles? Would they take an 11-1 Oregon that didn't play for its own conference championship? 11-1 Notre Dame? Will they say screw it and have Alabama play Ohio State on a luxury liner in international waters, where NCAA sanctions don't apply? The possibilities are endless.
Stanford (9-2, 7-1, +14) - Say what you will, I do really like Stanford, especially their coach, David Shaw. When Jim Harbaugh was Stanford's coach, he was all bluster, and that worked well for him. Shaw however, is quiet and unassuming, spending all week talking up the Ducks, and then having his team prepared. The Cardinal ran their game plan and stuck to it, containing Oregon's running backs and settling for winning the field position game while waiting for their opportunities to score. Stanford is now in the weird position of needing to beat UCLA twice in order to win the Pac-12 and get to the Rose Bowl.
Oregon (10-1, 7-1, +13) - D'oh! The Ducks lost at home for the second season in a row, and I think this one will smart for a long time. It will restart the questions about Oregon's ability to beat teams with an elite "SEC" style of defense. It will raise questions about Chip Kelly's decisions to twice go for it on fourth down, leaving points on the board in a game that the Ducks ended up losing 14-17 in overtime. And why can't the Ducks get a field goal kicker!? Oregon is now on the outside looking in for not only the BCS, but also the Rose: They need to beat Oregon State and have Stanford lose to UCLA.
Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1, +9) - Oklahoma beat West Virginia 50-49 on a last second touchdown pass. Combined with Kansas State's loss, the Sooners' win keeps them alive in the Big 12. In order to win it, and its Fiesta Bowl bid, Oklahoma needs wins against Oklahoma State and TCU, and have Texas beat Kansas State. So, for one week, Sooner fans will become Texas fans. And, because I'm trying really hard to see the silver lining, there is a possibility for an Oregon-Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl this year.
Kent State (10-1, 7-0, +8) - The Kent State Golden Flashes defeated Bowling Green 31-24, and the MAC Championship is now set between them and Northern Illinois. Kent State's signature win this season was 35-23 at Rutgers (arguably the best team in the Big East), and their lone loss was 14-47 at Kentucky (arguably the worst team in the SEC).
Oregon State (8-2, 6-2, +7) - The Beavers steamrolled Cal 62-14 and, even though Oregon's loss might take some of the shine off, the Civil War game next week is still going to be huge. The Beavers can't get to the Pac-12 championship, but they could beat the Ducks and make it impossible for them to do so, and maybe a 10-2 Oregon State team would be just enough to get a BCS at-large berth. (Probably not, though.)
UCLA (9-2, 6-2, +6) - I have so much I want to say after UCLA'a 38-28 win over USC in the Battle of Los Angeles. It was UCLA's first win over USC since 2006, and one that clinched a berth in the Pac-12 championship, for reals this time. Johnathan Franklin rushed for 160 yards and 2 TDs, and - if the Big 12 is the conference of the quarterback - the Pac-12 is the conference of the running back. USC became the first pre-season No. 1 team since 1984 to lose 4 games. It was the first time it rained on UCLA-USC since 1961, also won by UCLA. Special teams! Matt Barkley threw two interceptions, the Trojans missed two field goals and had two blocked punts, and UCLA averaged 42 yards per punt compared to USC's 30. Also, how come good basketball teams like UCLA, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina, are blue, but good football teams like USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Florida State are all red?
Washington (7-4, 5-3, +1) - Welcome back Washington, the best 4-loss team in the country! Their 38-3 win over Colorado was their fourth in a row, and they are 2-2 against my top 25, 1-2 against my top 8. They finish up next week in the Apple Cup against Washington State, and could count the season as a success with a win and a good bowl berth, maybe the Sun Bowl against the ACC or the Holiday Bowl against the Big 12.
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Bowl Predictions
(All rankings AP)
BCS National Championship: #1 Notre Dame vs. #2 Alabama
Rose: #11 Stanford vs. #17 Nebraska
Fiesta: #5 Oregon vs. #7 Kansas State
Sugar: #6 Florida vs. #14 Oklahoma
Orange: #10 Florida State vs. #21 Rutgers
Capital One: #8 LSU vs. #20 Michigan
Outback: #13 South Carolina vs. Wisconsin
Cotton: #9 Texas A&M vs. #18 Texas
Peach: #3 Georgia vs. #12 Clemson
Alamo: #16 Oregon State vs. #22 Oklahoma State
Insight: Texas Tech vs. Northwestern
Gator: #25 Mississippi State vs. Michigan State
Holiday: #15 UCLA vs. TCU
Russell Athletic: #19 Louisville vs. North Carolina State
Sun: USC vs. Miami (FL)
Belk: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Music City: Duke vs. Vanderbilt
Las Vegas: Washington vs. Boise State
Texas: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
Kraft Fight Hunger: Navy vs. Arizona
Pinstripe: West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Liberty: UCF vs. Mississippi*
Poinsettia: Brigham Young vs. Fresno State
Hawaii: Tulsa vs. Nevada
Armed Forces: Air Force vs. East Carolina
New Orleans: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Beef 'O' Brady's: Marshall vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Go-Daddy.com: #24 Northern Illinois vs. Middle Tennessee State
New Mexico: San Diego State vs. Arizona State
Little Caesar's Pizza: #23 Kent State vs. Purdue
Famous Idaho Potato: #25 Utah State vs. Toledo
Heart of Dallas: Baylor vs. Rice
BBVA Compass: Ohio vs. SMU*
BCS National Championship: #1 Notre Dame vs. #2 Alabama
Rose: #11 Stanford vs. #17 Nebraska
Fiesta: #5 Oregon vs. #7 Kansas State
Sugar: #6 Florida vs. #14 Oklahoma
Orange: #10 Florida State vs. #21 Rutgers
Capital One: #8 LSU vs. #20 Michigan
Outback: #13 South Carolina vs. Wisconsin
Cotton: #9 Texas A&M vs. #18 Texas
Peach: #3 Georgia vs. #12 Clemson
Alamo: #16 Oregon State vs. #22 Oklahoma State
Insight: Texas Tech vs. Northwestern
Gator: #25 Mississippi State vs. Michigan State
Holiday: #15 UCLA vs. TCU
Russell Athletic: #19 Louisville vs. North Carolina State
Sun: USC vs. Miami (FL)
Belk: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Music City: Duke vs. Vanderbilt
Las Vegas: Washington vs. Boise State
Texas: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
Kraft Fight Hunger: Navy vs. Arizona
Pinstripe: West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Liberty: UCF vs. Mississippi*
Poinsettia: Brigham Young vs. Fresno State
Hawaii: Tulsa vs. Nevada
Armed Forces: Air Force vs. East Carolina
New Orleans: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Beef 'O' Brady's: Marshall vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Go-Daddy.com: #24 Northern Illinois vs. Middle Tennessee State
New Mexico: San Diego State vs. Arizona State
Little Caesar's Pizza: #23 Kent State vs. Purdue
Famous Idaho Potato: #25 Utah State vs. Toledo
Heart of Dallas: Baylor vs. Rice
BBVA Compass: Ohio vs. SMU*
Scenario #2: The One Where Notre Dame Chokes
Scenario #2: The One Where Notre Dame Chokes
This is the disaster scenario. Everybody takes care of business except the Irish, who lose on the road to USC. Alabama takes their spot in the national championship, but against whom? The voters would want Oregon, except that, if Stanford beats UCLA, the Ducks won't even be the division champs, let alone Pac-12 champs. Florida State could be it, especially if they beat Florida, but right now the computers and the voters agree that the ACC is too weak to put up a one-loss champ. Stanford would have an impressive resume and be Pac-12 champs, but you couldn't put a 2-loss team in ahead of four one-loss teams. And Notre Dame could still be the choice, except that losing on the last day of the season to a 7-4 team looks really bad. So I'm saying: Kansas State. Even though they lost big to 5-6 Baylor, they would still be Big-12 champs, with wins over Texas and Oklahoma, and the computers really love the Big 12.
BCS National Championship: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Kansas State
Rose: #3 Stanford vs. #19 Nebraska
Fiesta: #4 Oregon vs. #12 Oklahoma - The Fiesta loves replacing K-State with Oklahoma. Hopefully, this game would generate big revenue, a billion points, and a little bad blood. Oklahoma might even be OK with playing in the Fiesta for the fourth time in seven years.
Sugar: #7 LSU vs. #6 Notre Dame - It's also possible that the Fiesta would pick Notre Dame instead of Oregon, but a) That would be a rematch of a game earlier this year, which bowls tend to try to avoid, and b) Geographically, the Fiesta Bowl makes more sense for the Ducks and the Sugar Bowl makes more sense for the Irish. It would be the first time either team played the Sugar Bowl since they played each other in 2007, and it would push LSU just ahead of Alabama for most ever appearances, 14-13.
Orange: #6 Florida State vs #14 Rutgers
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Kansas State (11-1, 8-1, +15)
3) Stanford (11-2, 9-1, +20)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
6) Notre Dame (11-1, 0-0, +13)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
9) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
12) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
13) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
14) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
15) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
16) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
17) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
18) UCLA (9-4, 6-4, +4)
19) Nebraska (11-2, 8-1, +4)
20) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
21) Texas (9-3, 6-3, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) USC (8-4, 5-4, 0)
This is the disaster scenario. Everybody takes care of business except the Irish, who lose on the road to USC. Alabama takes their spot in the national championship, but against whom? The voters would want Oregon, except that, if Stanford beats UCLA, the Ducks won't even be the division champs, let alone Pac-12 champs. Florida State could be it, especially if they beat Florida, but right now the computers and the voters agree that the ACC is too weak to put up a one-loss champ. Stanford would have an impressive resume and be Pac-12 champs, but you couldn't put a 2-loss team in ahead of four one-loss teams. And Notre Dame could still be the choice, except that losing on the last day of the season to a 7-4 team looks really bad. So I'm saying: Kansas State. Even though they lost big to 5-6 Baylor, they would still be Big-12 champs, with wins over Texas and Oklahoma, and the computers really love the Big 12.
BCS National Championship: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Kansas State
Rose: #3 Stanford vs. #19 Nebraska
Fiesta: #4 Oregon vs. #12 Oklahoma - The Fiesta loves replacing K-State with Oklahoma. Hopefully, this game would generate big revenue, a billion points, and a little bad blood. Oklahoma might even be OK with playing in the Fiesta for the fourth time in seven years.
Sugar: #7 LSU vs. #6 Notre Dame - It's also possible that the Fiesta would pick Notre Dame instead of Oregon, but a) That would be a rematch of a game earlier this year, which bowls tend to try to avoid, and b) Geographically, the Fiesta Bowl makes more sense for the Ducks and the Sugar Bowl makes more sense for the Irish. It would be the first time either team played the Sugar Bowl since they played each other in 2007, and it would push LSU just ahead of Alabama for most ever appearances, 14-13.
Orange: #6 Florida State vs #14 Rutgers
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Kansas State (11-1, 8-1, +15)
3) Stanford (11-2, 9-1, +20)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
6) Notre Dame (11-1, 0-0, +13)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
9) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
12) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
13) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
14) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
15) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
16) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
17) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
18) UCLA (9-4, 6-4, +4)
19) Nebraska (11-2, 8-1, +4)
20) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
21) Texas (9-3, 6-3, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) USC (8-4, 5-4, 0)
Scenario #1: Hold Serve
Scenario #1: Hold Serve
This is what I consider to be the most likely final BCS scenario. Alabama beats Georgia to win the SEC, and they meet Notre Dame for the title, after the Irish beat USC to finish the season undefeated. Stanford beats UCLA twice to win the Pac-12, and Nebraska beats Iowa and Wisconsin to win the Big Ten, and these two teams meet in the Rose Bowl. Kansas State beats Texas to win the Big-12, Florida State beats Florida and Georgia Tech to win the ACC, and Rutgers beats Louisville to win the Big East. I have Northern Illinois winning the MAC and finishing high enough to bust the BCS, but I doubt the actual BCS will agree with me, so I'll assume they won't get invited. So my final match-ups will be:
BCS National Championship: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Notre Dame
Rose: #3 Stanford vs. #19 Nebraska - A rematch of the 1941 Rose Bowl, which Stanford won 21-13.
Fiesta: #4 Oregon vs. #5 Kansas State - The Fiesta jumps to grab the one-loss Ducks and match them against Big 12 champ K-State, in the match-up of The Two Teams Who Blew It.
Sugar: #7 LSU vs. #12 Oklahoma - The Sugar would have 5 2-loss SEC teams to pick from. I think they would go with home state LSU, and by-pass two teams who would've ended their seasons with losses, Florida and Georgia. Then they piss off Jerry Jones and pick Oklahoma to be their opponents.
Orange: #6 Florida State vs #14 Rutgers
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Notre Dame (12-0, 0-0, +20)
3) Stanford (11-2, 9-1, +20)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Kansas State (11-1, 8-1, +15)
6) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
9) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
12) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
13) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
14) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
15) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
16) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
17) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
18) UCLA (9-4, 6-4, +4)
19) Nebraska (11-2, 8-1, +4)
20) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
21) Texas (9-3, 6-3, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) Louisville (10-2, 5-2, 0)
This is what I consider to be the most likely final BCS scenario. Alabama beats Georgia to win the SEC, and they meet Notre Dame for the title, after the Irish beat USC to finish the season undefeated. Stanford beats UCLA twice to win the Pac-12, and Nebraska beats Iowa and Wisconsin to win the Big Ten, and these two teams meet in the Rose Bowl. Kansas State beats Texas to win the Big-12, Florida State beats Florida and Georgia Tech to win the ACC, and Rutgers beats Louisville to win the Big East. I have Northern Illinois winning the MAC and finishing high enough to bust the BCS, but I doubt the actual BCS will agree with me, so I'll assume they won't get invited. So my final match-ups will be:
BCS National Championship: #1 Alabama vs. #2 Notre Dame
Rose: #3 Stanford vs. #19 Nebraska - A rematch of the 1941 Rose Bowl, which Stanford won 21-13.
Fiesta: #4 Oregon vs. #5 Kansas State - The Fiesta jumps to grab the one-loss Ducks and match them against Big 12 champ K-State, in the match-up of The Two Teams Who Blew It.
Sugar: #7 LSU vs. #12 Oklahoma - The Sugar would have 5 2-loss SEC teams to pick from. I think they would go with home state LSU, and by-pass two teams who would've ended their seasons with losses, Florida and Georgia. Then they piss off Jerry Jones and pick Oklahoma to be their opponents.
Orange: #6 Florida State vs #14 Rutgers
1) Alabama (12-1, 8-1, +23)
2) Notre Dame (12-0, 0-0, +20)
3) Stanford (11-2, 9-1, +20)
4) Oregon (11-1, 8-1, +17)
5) Kansas State (11-1, 8-1, +15)
6) Florida State (12-1, 8-1, +15)
7) LSU (10-2, 6-2, +13)
8) Georgia (11-2, 7-2, +13)
9) Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2, +13)
10) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, +12)
11) Florida (10-2, 7-1, +11)
12) Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1, +11)
13) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2, +10)
14) Rutgers (11-1, 7-0, +9)
15) Northern Illinois (12-1, 9-0, +9)
16) Oregon State (9-3, 6-3, +6)
17) Kent State (11-2, 8-1, +5)
18) UCLA (9-4, 6-4, +4)
19) Nebraska (11-2, 8-1, +4)
20) Clemson (10-2, 7-1, +3)
21) Texas (9-3, 6-3, +3)
22) Boise State (10-2, 7-1, +2)
23) Washington (8-4, 6-3, +2)
24) San Jose State (10-2, 5-1, +2)
25) Louisville (10-2, 5-2, 0)
My Top 25
1) Notre Dame (11-0, 0-0, +19)
2) Alabama (10-1, 6-1, +16)
3) Georgia (10-1, 7-1, +13)
4) Florida (10-1, 7-1, +14)
5) Stanford (9-2, 7-1, +14)
6) Oregon (10-1, 7-1, +13)
7) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
8) LSU (9-2, 5-2, +12)
9) Texas A&M (9-2, 5-2, +12)
10) Ohio State (11-0, 7-0, +11)
11) Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1, +9)
12) Florida State (10-1, 7-1, +8)
13) Kent State (10-1, 7-0, +8)
14) Oregon State (8-2, 6-2, +7)
15) South Carolina (9-2, 6-2, +7)
16) Rutgers (9-1, 5-0, +6)
17) Clemson (10-1, 7-1, +6)
18) UCLA (9-2, 6-2, +6)
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Northern Illinois (10-1, 7-0, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Nebraska (9-2, 6-1, +2)
23) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1)
24) Washington (7-4, 5-3, +1)
25) San Jose State (9-2, 4-1, +1)
Michigan (8-3, 6-1, 0)
Arizona (7-4, 4-4, 0)
Texas Tech (7-4, 4-4, -2)
Mississippi State (8-3, 4-3, -2)
Utah State (9-2, 5-0, -2)
Louisiana Tech (9-2, 4-1, -3) Tulsa (9-2, 6-0, -3)
Ball State (8-3, 5-2, -3)
Oklahoma State (7-3, 5-2, -3)
Arkansas State (8-3, 6-1, -5)
USC (7-4, 5-4, -6)
Cincinnati (7-3, 2-2, -6)
Vanderbilt (7-4, 5-3, -6)
Fresno State (8-3, 6-1, -6)
Toledo (8-3, 5-2, -7)
San Diego State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Middle Tennessee State (7-3, 5-1, -8)
Ohio (8-3, 4-3, -9)
TCU (6-4, 3-4, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
UCF (8-3, 5-1, -10)
Northwestern (8-3, 4-3, -10)
Penn State (7-4, 5-2, -10)
Louisiana-Monroe (7-4, 5-2, -11)
Temple (4-6, 2-4, -11)
Syracuse (6-5, 4-2, -12)
Bowling Green (7-4, 5-2, -13)
West Virginia (5-5, 2-5, -13)
Wisconsin (7-4, 4-3, -13)
Western Kentucky (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Iowa State (4-5, 1-5, -13)
Arizona State (6-5, 4-4, -14)
Miami (FL) (6-5, 4-3, -14)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
East Carolina (7-4, 6-1, -15)
Duke (6-5, 3-4, -16)
North Carolina (7-4, 4-3, -16)
Nevada (7-4, 4-3, -17)
Mississippi (5-6, 2-5, -17)
North Carolina State (6-5, 3-4, -17)
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Texas-San Antonio (7-4, 2-3, -17)
Baylor (5-5, 2-5, -17)
Missouri (5-6, 2-5, -19)
Michigan State (5-6, 2-5, -23)
Minnesota (6-5, 2-5, -23)
Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4, -24)
Air Force (6-5, 5-2, -24)
Georgia Tech (6-5, 5-3, -24)
Wake Forest (5-6, 3-5, -25)
Tennessee (4-7, 0-7, -26)
Purdue (5-6, 2-5, -26)
Central Michigan (5-6, 3-4, -26)
Arkansas (4-7, 2-5, -27)
Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4, -27)
Connecticut (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Troy (5-6, 3-4, -29)
Rice (5-6, 3-4, -29)
South Florida (3-7, 1-3, -30)
Marshall (5-6, 4-3, -30)
Utah (4-7, 2-6, -31)
Miami (OH) (4-7, 3-4, -31)
North Texas (4-7, 3-4, -31)
SMU (5-6, 4-3, -31)
Auburn (3-8, 0-7, -31)
Buffalo (4-7, 3-4, -31)
Houston (4-7, 4-4, -33)
Indiana (4-7, 2-5, -33)
Maryland (4-7, 2-5, -33)
Texas State (3-7, 1-3, -34)
Iowa (4-7, 2-5, -36)
Wyoming (4-7, 3-4, -36)
Florida Atlantic (3-8, 2-5, -37)
Western Michigan (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Virginia (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Washington State (2-9, 0-8, -39)
California (3-9, 2-7, -39)
New Mexico (4-8, 1-6, -40)
Kentucky (2-9, 0-7, -41)
UAB (3-8, 2-5, -43)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Colorado State (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Florida International (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Boston College (2-9, 1-6, -45)
Memphis (3-8, 3-4, -45)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Colorado (1-10, 1-7, -48)
Illinois (2-9, 0-7, -48)
New Mexico State (1-9, 0-5, -48)
Hawaii (1-9, 0-5, -50)
South Alabama (2-9, 1-6, -50)
Army (2-9, 0-0, -50)
Tulane (2-9, 2-7, -52)
Eastern Michigan (2-9, 1-6, -51)
Akron (1-10, 0-7, -54)
Massachusetts (1-10, 1-6, -55)
Idaho (1-10, 1-4, -56)
Southern Miss (0-10, 0-6, -56)
UNLV (2-10, 2-5, -57)
2) Alabama (10-1, 6-1, +16)
3) Georgia (10-1, 7-1, +13)
4) Florida (10-1, 7-1, +14)
5) Stanford (9-2, 7-1, +14)
6) Oregon (10-1, 7-1, +13)
7) Kansas State (10-1, 7-1, +12)
8) LSU (9-2, 5-2, +12)
9) Texas A&M (9-2, 5-2, +12)
10) Ohio State (11-0, 7-0, +11)
11) Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1, +9)
12) Florida State (10-1, 7-1, +8)
13) Kent State (10-1, 7-0, +8)
14) Oregon State (8-2, 6-2, +7)
15) South Carolina (9-2, 6-2, +7)
16) Rutgers (9-1, 5-0, +6)
17) Clemson (10-1, 7-1, +6)
18) UCLA (9-2, 6-2, +6)
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Northern Illinois (10-1, 7-0, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Nebraska (9-2, 6-1, +2)
23) Boise State (9-2, 6-1, +1)
24) Washington (7-4, 5-3, +1)
25) San Jose State (9-2, 4-1, +1)
Michigan (8-3, 6-1, 0)
Arizona (7-4, 4-4, 0)
Texas Tech (7-4, 4-4, -2)
Mississippi State (8-3, 4-3, -2)
Utah State (9-2, 5-0, -2)
Louisiana Tech (9-2, 4-1, -3) Tulsa (9-2, 6-0, -3)
Ball State (8-3, 5-2, -3)
Oklahoma State (7-3, 5-2, -3)
Arkansas State (8-3, 6-1, -5)
USC (7-4, 5-4, -6)
Cincinnati (7-3, 2-2, -6)
Vanderbilt (7-4, 5-3, -6)
Fresno State (8-3, 6-1, -6)
Toledo (8-3, 5-2, -7)
San Diego State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Middle Tennessee State (7-3, 5-1, -8)
Ohio (8-3, 4-3, -9)
TCU (6-4, 3-4, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
UCF (8-3, 5-1, -10)
Northwestern (8-3, 4-3, -10)
Penn State (7-4, 5-2, -10)
Louisiana-Monroe (7-4, 5-2, -11)
Temple (4-6, 2-4, -11)
Syracuse (6-5, 4-2, -12)
Bowling Green (7-4, 5-2, -13)
West Virginia (5-5, 2-5, -13)
Wisconsin (7-4, 4-3, -13)
Western Kentucky (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Iowa State (4-5, 1-5, -13)
Arizona State (6-5, 4-4, -14)
Miami (FL) (6-5, 4-3, -14)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
East Carolina (7-4, 6-1, -15)
Duke (6-5, 3-4, -16)
North Carolina (7-4, 4-3, -16)
Nevada (7-4, 4-3, -17)
Mississippi (5-6, 2-5, -17)
North Carolina State (6-5, 3-4, -17)
Navy (7-4, 0-0, -17)
Texas-San Antonio (7-4, 2-3, -17)
Baylor (5-5, 2-5, -17)
Missouri (5-6, 2-5, -19)
Michigan State (5-6, 2-5, -23)
Minnesota (6-5, 2-5, -23)
Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4, -24)
Air Force (6-5, 5-2, -24)
Georgia Tech (6-5, 5-3, -24)
Wake Forest (5-6, 3-5, -25)
Tennessee (4-7, 0-7, -26)
Purdue (5-6, 2-5, -26)
Central Michigan (5-6, 3-4, -26)
Arkansas (4-7, 2-5, -27)
Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4, -27)
Connecticut (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Troy (5-6, 3-4, -29)
Rice (5-6, 3-4, -29)
South Florida (3-7, 1-3, -30)
Marshall (5-6, 4-3, -30)
Utah (4-7, 2-6, -31)
Miami (OH) (4-7, 3-4, -31)
North Texas (4-7, 3-4, -31)
SMU (5-6, 4-3, -31)
Auburn (3-8, 0-7, -31)
Buffalo (4-7, 3-4, -31)
Houston (4-7, 4-4, -33)
Indiana (4-7, 2-5, -33)
Maryland (4-7, 2-5, -33)
Texas State (3-7, 1-3, -34)
Iowa (4-7, 2-5, -36)
Wyoming (4-7, 3-4, -36)
Florida Atlantic (3-8, 2-5, -37)
Western Michigan (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Virginia (4-7, 2-5, -38)
Washington State (2-9, 0-8, -39)
California (3-9, 2-7, -39)
New Mexico (4-8, 1-6, -40)
Kentucky (2-9, 0-7, -41)
UAB (3-8, 2-5, -43)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Colorado State (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Florida International (3-8, 2-5, -44)
Boston College (2-9, 1-6, -45)
Memphis (3-8, 3-4, -45)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Colorado (1-10, 1-7, -48)
Illinois (2-9, 0-7, -48)
New Mexico State (1-9, 0-5, -48)
Hawaii (1-9, 0-5, -50)
South Alabama (2-9, 1-6, -50)
Army (2-9, 0-0, -50)
Tulane (2-9, 2-7, -52)
Eastern Michigan (2-9, 1-6, -51)
Akron (1-10, 0-7, -54)
Massachusetts (1-10, 1-6, -55)
Idaho (1-10, 1-4, -56)
Southern Miss (0-10, 0-6, -56)
UNLV (2-10, 2-5, -57)
Monday, November 12, 2012
Power Rankings
1) Notre Dame (10-0, 0-0, +18) - Notre Dame looked much better this week, steamrolling 2-win Boston College 21-6. The Irish get another ACC team, Wake Forest, before finishing their season at USC. The AP has Notre Dame third, behind Oregon and K-State, and most experts agree that, if all three win-out, the Irish will be on the outside looking in. In that case, it is very likely that Notre Dame could be sent to the Rose Bowl. If the Ducks get to the NC, that frees up the Rose Bowl from their contractual obligation to the Pac-12. They tend to prefer sticking with their conference affiliates, but if it's a choice between 9-3 Stanford, 9-3 Oregon State, 8-5 USC, or 12-0 Notre Dame, they would probably invite the Irish. (For the first time since 1925!)
2) Kansas State (10-0, 7-0, +18)
3) Oregon (10-0, 7-0, +16) - Being an Oregon fan kind of skews your perspective of reality. Last night, I was watching the Ducks against Cal, thinking to myself, "Man, we're playing terribly!" This was the third quarter, when Oregon was up 24-17 and Cal was driving. Two Bears turnovers and five minutes later, it was 45-17, and Oregon coasted to the win, 59-17, although it still felt like the Ducks were doing poorly. There were plenty of bad signs for the Ducks; nagging injuries to Barner and Mariota, the decimation of their entire defensive line, and the allowance of 236 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per rush. Next week is Stanford, who has a much, much better running back than Cal.
4) Alabama (9-1, 6-1, +15) - Down goes 'Bama! After waiting 10 weeks to reach my #1, the Tide promptly give it right away, losing at home to Texas A&M, 29-24. Andy Staples seems to think that this loss will end the SEC's six year championship run, but I am not so sure. Alabama has games left against FCS West Carolina and might-as-well-be-FCS Auburn, and if they win those, they're in the SEC Championship against Georgia. Remember; all of the teams ahead of them have very losable games left in the schedule. And it would be a little anti-climactic if the SEC's title streak ended without a loss.
5) Georgia (9-1, 7-1, +12)
6) Florida (9-1, 7-1, +13) - The Gators needed to block a punt and return it for a touchdown with :02 left in order to avoid overtime and beat the mighty Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 27-20. Although Alabama's loss probably ended any slim chances Florida had of getting to the BCS-NC, they're still in a position to grab a BCS-at large bid, especially if they beat Florida State on Nov 24th.
7) LSU (8-2, 4-2, +11)
8) Texas A&M (8-2, 5-2, +11)
9) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
10) Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1, +8)
11) Stanford (8-2, 6-1, +8) - I took my teacher certification tests on Saturday, and got home just as the Stanford players began celebrating their 27-23 win over Oregon State, during which freshman QB Kevin Hogan was 22/29 for 254 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. The win probably goes to the Cardinal defense, however, who held Oregon State to only 3 points on 4 Stanford turnovers. Next week, Stanford is at Oregon, and will be trying to replicate Texas A&M's success by pulling off the upset. If I were coach David Shaw, I would just run right at the Ducks, and try to make their defense get a stop while draining the clock and keeping their offense off the field. Easier said than done, though.
12) Florida State (9-1, 6-1, +7)
13) Kent State (9-1, 6-0, +7)
14) Oregon State (7-2, 5-2, +6)
15) South Carolina (8-2, 6-2 , +6)
16) Rutgers (8-1, 4-0, +5)
17) Clemson (9-1, 6-1, +5)
18) UCLA (8-2, 5-2, +5) - UCLA's 44-36 win over Washington St., combined with USC's 38-17 win over Arizona St., means that the winner of next week's Battle for Los Angeles will win the Pac-12 South and get to play for the Rose Bowl. The Bruins, actually, still have a viable shot at an at-large bid, if they beat USC and Stanford, and maybe have Notre Dame lose to USC and Clemson lose to South Carolina. Of course, I doubt that the Rose Bowl would like to host a rematch between AP #17 UCLA and #16 Nebraska.
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
23) Louisiana Tech (9-1, 4-0, +3)
24) Nebraska (8-2, 5-1, +1)
25) Boise State (8-2, 4-1, 0)
2) Kansas State (10-0, 7-0, +18)
3) Oregon (10-0, 7-0, +16) - Being an Oregon fan kind of skews your perspective of reality. Last night, I was watching the Ducks against Cal, thinking to myself, "Man, we're playing terribly!" This was the third quarter, when Oregon was up 24-17 and Cal was driving. Two Bears turnovers and five minutes later, it was 45-17, and Oregon coasted to the win, 59-17, although it still felt like the Ducks were doing poorly. There were plenty of bad signs for the Ducks; nagging injuries to Barner and Mariota, the decimation of their entire defensive line, and the allowance of 236 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per rush. Next week is Stanford, who has a much, much better running back than Cal.
4) Alabama (9-1, 6-1, +15) - Down goes 'Bama! After waiting 10 weeks to reach my #1, the Tide promptly give it right away, losing at home to Texas A&M, 29-24. Andy Staples seems to think that this loss will end the SEC's six year championship run, but I am not so sure. Alabama has games left against FCS West Carolina and might-as-well-be-FCS Auburn, and if they win those, they're in the SEC Championship against Georgia. Remember; all of the teams ahead of them have very losable games left in the schedule. And it would be a little anti-climactic if the SEC's title streak ended without a loss.
5) Georgia (9-1, 7-1, +12)
6) Florida (9-1, 7-1, +13) - The Gators needed to block a punt and return it for a touchdown with :02 left in order to avoid overtime and beat the mighty Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 27-20. Although Alabama's loss probably ended any slim chances Florida had of getting to the BCS-NC, they're still in a position to grab a BCS-at large bid, especially if they beat Florida State on Nov 24th.
7) LSU (8-2, 4-2, +11)
8) Texas A&M (8-2, 5-2, +11)
9) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
10) Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1, +8)
11) Stanford (8-2, 6-1, +8) - I took my teacher certification tests on Saturday, and got home just as the Stanford players began celebrating their 27-23 win over Oregon State, during which freshman QB Kevin Hogan was 22/29 for 254 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. The win probably goes to the Cardinal defense, however, who held Oregon State to only 3 points on 4 Stanford turnovers. Next week, Stanford is at Oregon, and will be trying to replicate Texas A&M's success by pulling off the upset. If I were coach David Shaw, I would just run right at the Ducks, and try to make their defense get a stop while draining the clock and keeping their offense off the field. Easier said than done, though.
12) Florida State (9-1, 6-1, +7)
13) Kent State (9-1, 6-0, +7)
14) Oregon State (7-2, 5-2, +6)
15) South Carolina (8-2, 6-2 , +6)
16) Rutgers (8-1, 4-0, +5)
17) Clemson (9-1, 6-1, +5)
18) UCLA (8-2, 5-2, +5) - UCLA's 44-36 win over Washington St., combined with USC's 38-17 win over Arizona St., means that the winner of next week's Battle for Los Angeles will win the Pac-12 South and get to play for the Rose Bowl. The Bruins, actually, still have a viable shot at an at-large bid, if they beat USC and Stanford, and maybe have Notre Dame lose to USC and Clemson lose to South Carolina. Of course, I doubt that the Rose Bowl would like to host a rematch between AP #17 UCLA and #16 Nebraska.
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
23) Louisiana Tech (9-1, 4-0, +3)
24) Nebraska (8-2, 5-1, +1)
25) Boise State (8-2, 4-1, 0)
Saturday, November 10, 2012
My Top 25
1) Notre Dame (10-0, 0-0, +18)
2) Kansas State (10-0, 7-0, +18)
3) Oregon (10-0, 7-0, +16)
4) Alabama (9-1, 6-1, +15)
5) Georgia (9-1, 7-1, +12)
6) Florida (9-1, 7-1, +13)
7) LSU (8-2, 4-2, +11)
8) Texas A&M (8-2, 5-2, +11)
9) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
10) Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1, +8)
11) Stanford (8-2, 6-1, +8)
12) Florida State (9-1, 6-1, +7)
13) Kent State (9-1, 6-0, +7)
14) Oregon State (7-2, 5-2, +6)
15) South Carolina (8-2, 6-2 , +6)
16) Rutgers (8-1, 4-0, +5)
17) Clemson (9-1, 6-1, +5)
18) UCLA (8-2, 5-2, +5)
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
23) Louisiana Tech (9-1, 4-0, +3)
24) Nebraska (8-2, 5-1, +1)
25) Boise State (8-2, 4-1, 0)
San Jose State (8-2, 6-1, 0)
Washington (6-4, 4-3, 0)
Michigan (7-3, 5-1, -1)
Toledo (8-2, 5-1, -2)
Arizona (6-4, 2-4, -2)
USC (7-3, 5-3, -2)
Cincinnati (7-2, 2-1, -2)
Ohio (8-2, 4-2, -3)
Mississippi State (7-3, 3-3, -3)
Utah State (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Tulsa (8-2, 5-0, -4)
UCF (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Ball State (7-3, 4-2, -4)
Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2, -6)
Arkansas State (7-3, 5-1, -6)
Fresno State (7-3, 5-1, -7)
San Diego State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Vanderbilt (6-4, 4-3, -7)
Syracuse (4-4, 3-1, -8)
TCU (6-4, 3-4, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
Middle Tennessee State (6-3, 4-1, -9)
Duke (6-4, 3-3, -10)
Bowling Green (7-3, 5-1, -10)
West Virginia (5-4, 2-4, -11)
Northwestern (7-3, 3-3, -11)
Penn State (6-4, 4-2, -11)
Wisconsin (7-3, 4-2, -11)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-4, 4-2, -12)
Temple (3-6, 2-4, -12)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Western Kentucky (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Iowa State (4-5, 1-5, -13)
North Carolina State (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Missouri (5-5, 2-5, -13)
Arizona State (5-5, 3-4, -15)
Mississippi (5-5, 2-4, -15)
Miami (FL) (5-5, 4-3, -15)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
East Carolina (6-4, 5-1, -16)
North Carolina (6-4, 3-3, -17)
Michigan State (5-5, 2-4, -17)
Navy (6-4, 0-0, -18)
South Florida (3-5, 1-3, -18)
Texas-San Antonio (6-4, 1-3, -18)
Minnesota (6-4, 2-4, -18)
Tennessee (4-6, 0-6, -20)
Arkansas (4-6, 2-4, -21)
Baylor (4-5, 1-5, -23)
Troy (5-5, 3-3, -23)
Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4, -24)
Wake Forest (5-5, 3-5, -24)
Utah (4-6, 2-5, -25)
Air Force (5-5, 4-2, -25)
Miami (OH) (4-6, 3-3, -25)
North Texas (4-6, 3-3, -25)
SMU (5-5, 4-2, -25)
Georgia Tech (5-5, 4-3, -25)
Houston (4-6, 4-3, -27)
Indiana (4-6, 2-4, -27)
Purdue (4-6, 1-5, -27)
Central Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -27)
Texas State (3-6, 0-3, -28)
Virginia Tech (4-6, 2-4, -28)
Connecticut (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Iowa (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Maryland (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Rice (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Marshall (4-6, 3-3, -31)
Florida Atlantic (3-7, 2-4, -31)
Auburn (2-8, 0-7, -32)
Western Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Virginia (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Washington State (2-8, 0-7, -33)
Buffalo (2-7, 1-4,-33)
New Mexico (4-7, 1-5, -34)
California (3-8, 2-6, -36)
UAB (3-7, 2-4, -37)
Wyoming (3-7, 2-4, -37)
Boston College (2-8, 1-5, -39)
Colorado State (3-7, 2-4, -39)
Colorado (1-9, 1-6, -42)
Illinois (2-8, 0-6, -42)
Kentucky (1-9, 0-7, -42)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Hawaii (1-8, 0-5, -44)
South Alabama (2-8, 1-5, -44)
Army (2-8, 0-0, -44)
Idaho (1-8, 1-2, -44)
Florida International (2-8, 1-5, -45)
Tulane (2-8, 2-6, -46)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Memphis (2-8, 2-4, -46)
New Mexico State (1-9, 0-5, -48)
Massachusetts (1-9, 1-5, -49)
UNLV (2-9, 2-4, -51)
Eastern Michigan (1-9, 0-6, -52)
Akron (1-10, 0-7, -54)
Southern Miss (0-10, 0-6, -56)
2) Kansas State (10-0, 7-0, +18)
3) Oregon (10-0, 7-0, +16)
4) Alabama (9-1, 6-1, +15)
5) Georgia (9-1, 7-1, +12)
6) Florida (9-1, 7-1, +13)
7) LSU (8-2, 4-2, +11)
8) Texas A&M (8-2, 5-2, +11)
9) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
10) Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1, +8)
11) Stanford (8-2, 6-1, +8)
12) Florida State (9-1, 6-1, +7)
13) Kent State (9-1, 6-0, +7)
14) Oregon State (7-2, 5-2, +6)
15) South Carolina (8-2, 6-2 , +6)
16) Rutgers (8-1, 4-0, +5)
17) Clemson (9-1, 6-1, +5)
18) UCLA (8-2, 5-2, +5)
19) Texas (8-2, 5-2, +4)
20) Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3, +4)
21) Louisville (9-1, 4-1, +3)
22) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
23) Louisiana Tech (9-1, 4-0, +3)
24) Nebraska (8-2, 5-1, +1)
25) Boise State (8-2, 4-1, 0)
San Jose State (8-2, 6-1, 0)
Washington (6-4, 4-3, 0)
Michigan (7-3, 5-1, -1)
Toledo (8-2, 5-1, -2)
Arizona (6-4, 2-4, -2)
USC (7-3, 5-3, -2)
Cincinnati (7-2, 2-1, -2)
Ohio (8-2, 4-2, -3)
Mississippi State (7-3, 3-3, -3)
Utah State (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Tulsa (8-2, 5-0, -4)
UCF (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Ball State (7-3, 4-2, -4)
Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2, -6)
Arkansas State (7-3, 5-1, -6)
Fresno State (7-3, 5-1, -7)
San Diego State (8-3, 6-1, -7)
Vanderbilt (6-4, 4-3, -7)
Syracuse (4-4, 3-1, -8)
TCU (6-4, 3-4, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
Middle Tennessee State (6-3, 4-1, -9)
Duke (6-4, 3-3, -10)
Bowling Green (7-3, 5-1, -10)
West Virginia (5-4, 2-4, -11)
Northwestern (7-3, 3-3, -11)
Penn State (6-4, 4-2, -11)
Wisconsin (7-3, 4-2, -11)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-4, 4-2, -12)
Temple (3-6, 2-4, -12)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Western Kentucky (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Iowa State (4-5, 1-5, -13)
North Carolina State (6-4, 3-3, -13)
Missouri (5-5, 2-5, -13)
Arizona State (5-5, 3-4, -15)
Mississippi (5-5, 2-4, -15)
Miami (FL) (5-5, 4-3, -15)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-4, 3-3, -15)
East Carolina (6-4, 5-1, -16)
North Carolina (6-4, 3-3, -17)
Michigan State (5-5, 2-4, -17)
Navy (6-4, 0-0, -18)
South Florida (3-5, 1-3, -18)
Texas-San Antonio (6-4, 1-3, -18)
Minnesota (6-4, 2-4, -18)
Tennessee (4-6, 0-6, -20)
Arkansas (4-6, 2-4, -21)
Baylor (4-5, 1-5, -23)
Troy (5-5, 3-3, -23)
Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4, -24)
Wake Forest (5-5, 3-5, -24)
Utah (4-6, 2-5, -25)
Air Force (5-5, 4-2, -25)
Miami (OH) (4-6, 3-3, -25)
North Texas (4-6, 3-3, -25)
SMU (5-5, 4-2, -25)
Georgia Tech (5-5, 4-3, -25)
Houston (4-6, 4-3, -27)
Indiana (4-6, 2-4, -27)
Purdue (4-6, 1-5, -27)
Central Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -27)
Texas State (3-6, 0-3, -28)
Virginia Tech (4-6, 2-4, -28)
Connecticut (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Iowa (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Maryland (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Rice (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Marshall (4-6, 3-3, -31)
Florida Atlantic (3-7, 2-4, -31)
Auburn (2-8, 0-7, -32)
Western Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Virginia (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Washington State (2-8, 0-7, -33)
Buffalo (2-7, 1-4,-33)
New Mexico (4-7, 1-5, -34)
California (3-8, 2-6, -36)
UAB (3-7, 2-4, -37)
Wyoming (3-7, 2-4, -37)
Boston College (2-8, 1-5, -39)
Colorado State (3-7, 2-4, -39)
Colorado (1-9, 1-6, -42)
Illinois (2-8, 0-6, -42)
Kentucky (1-9, 0-7, -42)
UTEP (2-8, 1-4, -43)
Hawaii (1-8, 0-5, -44)
South Alabama (2-8, 1-5, -44)
Army (2-8, 0-0, -44)
Idaho (1-8, 1-2, -44)
Florida International (2-8, 1-5, -45)
Tulane (2-8, 2-6, -46)
Kansas (1-9, 0-7, -46)
Memphis (2-8, 2-4, -46)
New Mexico State (1-9, 0-5, -48)
Massachusetts (1-9, 1-5, -49)
UNLV (2-9, 2-4, -51)
Eastern Michigan (1-9, 0-6, -52)
Akron (1-10, 0-7, -54)
Southern Miss (0-10, 0-6, -56)
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Power Rankings
1) Alabama (9-0, 6-0, +18) - It's a little ironic that the game that finally elevates Alabama to my No. 1 is the one where they looked the most vulnerable, needing a 28-yard touchdown off a screen pass with 51 seconds left to win at LSU, 21-17. Alabama gave up 435 yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play, while gaining 331 yards on 6.4 ypp. The key for LSU's almost-win was time of possession, which they led by a whopping 39:15 to 20:45. This meant that Alabama's defenders lost a little gas at the end of the game, and allowed LSU to have two touchdown scoring drives in the second half. On the other hand, the Tigers botched a disastrous fake field goal in the first half, missed another in the second, and turned the ball over on downs in the 4th quarter. Sometimes, the team that wins is simply the team that doesn't make as many mistakes. Next week will be interesting, as the Tide host Texas A&M's high powered Big-12 style offense and their elite QB, Johnny Manziel.
2) Notre Dame (9-0, 0-0, +17) - OK, I am officially off the Notre Dame bandwagon. The Irish needed a furious comeback and a botched field goal to beat mighty 4-4 Pittsburgh 29-26 in triple overtime. I know that every championship team needs the football gods on their side at some point in the season, but not against a Big East also-ran.
Now, here's the thing. If, in August, you told me that Notre Dame would go 12-0 and beat Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC, I would say that they're an elite team and are in the National Championship, because I'm expecting at least 2 conference championships and 3 BCS bowl berths from those teams. But then you tell me that none of those teams win their conference, and only one (Oklahoma) will be playing in a BCS bowl. Just says something about how much pre-season expectations shape how we view the actual season.
3) Kansas State (9-0, 6-0, +17) - I really hope that Collin Klein is OK. The do-everything QB left Kansas State's 44-30 win over Oklahoma State with an unspecified knee injury and he is questionable for next week's game against TCU. The Wildcats need to win 2 out of their last 3 against TCU, Baylor, and Texas to win the Big 12 and go to the Fiesta Bowl, which they could do without Klein, because of their good defense and ability to control the ball. But their eyes are on a bigger prize right now. And I think they will need Klein at 100% to do that.
4) Oregon (9-0, 6-0, +15) - For the first time all season, I think I saw an Oregon team that belongs on the same field as Alabama in their 62-51 win at USC. Kenjon Barner had a historic day, rushing for 321 yards and 5 touchdowns, and the Ducks put up 730 yards of offense on 8.8 yards per play. And, even though they gave up 615 yards and 7.7 ypp to the Trojans, I was still impressed with Oregon's defense. They forced three first half turnovers, two of them in the red zone, and if it were not for one 75 yard Marquise Lee touchdown catch and one 82 yard Marquise Lee kickoff return, the game would not have been nearly as close. Something to note: There were two punts in the entire game, one by each team, 0 in the first half.
5) Georgia (8-1, 6-1, +11)
6) Florida (8-1, 7-1, +12) - The Gators needed a last minute interception in the endzone to defeat Missouri, 14-7, and wrap up their SEC schedule. If Georgia stumbles next week against Auburn, the Gators win the East and will head to the SEC Championship. However, even if Georgia wins, Florida can still compete for an invitation to the Sugar Bowl if they beat Florida State. In fact, Florida still has an outside chance at getting to the National Championship if they win out, if Georgia loses to Alabama, and if everybody outside the SEC suffers at least one loss. In the meanwhile, they get to rack up the ticket receipts with awkward home games against Louisiana-Lafayette and Jacksonville State.
7) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10) - The Buckeyes won at home against Illinois, 52-22, and the Big Ten narrowly averted disaster with Nebraska beating Michigan State, 28-24. The Cornhuskers remain the Big Ten's last bowl eligible team with fewer than 3 losses. Nebraska remains the favorite to reach the Big Ten championship, with games left against Penn State, Minnesota, and Iowa. There, they will probably meet Wisconsin, although there is a chance that 4-5 Indiana could meet them there, if the Hoosiers win out against Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue.
And what to make of Ohio State's curious season? They're undefeated, but their opponents are a combined 44-49, with only three (Nebraska, Penn State, and UCF) currently with winning records. They still get Wisconsin and Michigan, and could ruin either or both of those teams Rose Bowl hopes. But I seriously doubt that an undefeated Ohio State will have enough respect to get a split national title from the AP. (They are fifth this morning.)
8) Oregon State (7-1, 5-1, +10)
9) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +10) - The Tigers don't get punished much for losing to the #1 team in the country by a last-minute touchdown, dropping from 7th to 9th. (5th to 9th in the AP.) However, their second loss seriously damaged their chances at securing an at-large BCS bowl berth. Their head-to-head loss to Florida looms large, and they would probably be picked after a two-loss Georgia team, too, unless the Bulldogs just get blown out by Alabama in the SEC Championship game. The Tigers still have work to do, with Mississippi State up next. Even if they miss out on the Sugar Bowl, a Cotton Bowl berth against, say, Texas or Oklahoma would be nothing to sneeze at.
10) Louisville (9-0, 4-0, +9)
11) Oklahoma (6-2, 4-1, +7)
12) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
13) Kent State (8-1, 5-0, +6)
14) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
15) Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2, +5)
16) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
17) Toledo (8-1, 5-0, +4) - Toledo is ranked for the first time ever this week, debuting at #23 in the AP poll. Northern Illinois, Kent State, and Ohio have all received votes, too. The MAC won't get settled out for another two weeks, when Toledo plays at Northern Illinois on Wednesday, Nov. 14, and Ohio plays at Kent State on Friday, Nov. 23. I highly doubt that even a one-loss MAC champ will be invited to a BCS bowl, although it is possible, especially since the Big Ten will probably only be sending one team this year.
18) Clemson (8-1, 5-1, +4)
19) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3) - In case you didn't notice, there were two games played in the Los Angeles area last night, and the same Arizona team that beat USC 39-36 last week fell on the road to UCLA 66-10. In the first half, Arizona had 79 yards on 25 plays, and the Bruins led 42-3 at the half. UCLA, USC, and Arizona State all still have a chance at winning the Pac-12 South. The Bruins have a one-game lead and hold the tie-breaker over ASU, with game left at Wazzu, vs. USC, and the finale at home against Stanford. Arizona State needs to beat USC and then have UCLA lose twice. The Trojans can still win the division by winning out: They host ASU next week and then take on the Bruins in the Rose Bowl on Nov. 17th. That game should be fun.
20) Stanford (7-2, 5-1, +3) - Stanford beat Colorado, ending a brutal three-game stretch where the Buffaloes lost at USC 50-6, at Oregon 70-14, and against Stanford 48-0. The Cardinal end their season at home against Oregon State, at Oregon, and at UCLA. (APs, 13, 2, and 17). Next week's OSU game will essentially be a "play-in" for the Pac-12 North Division, with the winner getting a shot at the Ducks for the division title and the loser having 2 conference losses and awaiting a Holiday Bowl invitation in the mail.
21) Texas (7-2, 4-2, +3)
22) Ohio (8-1, 4-1, +3)
23) Texas Tech (6-3, 3-3, +3)
24) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
25) Louisiana Tech (8-1, 3-0, +2)
2) Notre Dame (9-0, 0-0, +17) - OK, I am officially off the Notre Dame bandwagon. The Irish needed a furious comeback and a botched field goal to beat mighty 4-4 Pittsburgh 29-26 in triple overtime. I know that every championship team needs the football gods on their side at some point in the season, but not against a Big East also-ran.
Now, here's the thing. If, in August, you told me that Notre Dame would go 12-0 and beat Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC, I would say that they're an elite team and are in the National Championship, because I'm expecting at least 2 conference championships and 3 BCS bowl berths from those teams. But then you tell me that none of those teams win their conference, and only one (Oklahoma) will be playing in a BCS bowl. Just says something about how much pre-season expectations shape how we view the actual season.
3) Kansas State (9-0, 6-0, +17) - I really hope that Collin Klein is OK. The do-everything QB left Kansas State's 44-30 win over Oklahoma State with an unspecified knee injury and he is questionable for next week's game against TCU. The Wildcats need to win 2 out of their last 3 against TCU, Baylor, and Texas to win the Big 12 and go to the Fiesta Bowl, which they could do without Klein, because of their good defense and ability to control the ball. But their eyes are on a bigger prize right now. And I think they will need Klein at 100% to do that.
4) Oregon (9-0, 6-0, +15) - For the first time all season, I think I saw an Oregon team that belongs on the same field as Alabama in their 62-51 win at USC. Kenjon Barner had a historic day, rushing for 321 yards and 5 touchdowns, and the Ducks put up 730 yards of offense on 8.8 yards per play. And, even though they gave up 615 yards and 7.7 ypp to the Trojans, I was still impressed with Oregon's defense. They forced three first half turnovers, two of them in the red zone, and if it were not for one 75 yard Marquise Lee touchdown catch and one 82 yard Marquise Lee kickoff return, the game would not have been nearly as close. Something to note: There were two punts in the entire game, one by each team, 0 in the first half.
5) Georgia (8-1, 6-1, +11)
6) Florida (8-1, 7-1, +12) - The Gators needed a last minute interception in the endzone to defeat Missouri, 14-7, and wrap up their SEC schedule. If Georgia stumbles next week against Auburn, the Gators win the East and will head to the SEC Championship. However, even if Georgia wins, Florida can still compete for an invitation to the Sugar Bowl if they beat Florida State. In fact, Florida still has an outside chance at getting to the National Championship if they win out, if Georgia loses to Alabama, and if everybody outside the SEC suffers at least one loss. In the meanwhile, they get to rack up the ticket receipts with awkward home games against Louisiana-Lafayette and Jacksonville State.
7) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10) - The Buckeyes won at home against Illinois, 52-22, and the Big Ten narrowly averted disaster with Nebraska beating Michigan State, 28-24. The Cornhuskers remain the Big Ten's last bowl eligible team with fewer than 3 losses. Nebraska remains the favorite to reach the Big Ten championship, with games left against Penn State, Minnesota, and Iowa. There, they will probably meet Wisconsin, although there is a chance that 4-5 Indiana could meet them there, if the Hoosiers win out against Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue.
And what to make of Ohio State's curious season? They're undefeated, but their opponents are a combined 44-49, with only three (Nebraska, Penn State, and UCF) currently with winning records. They still get Wisconsin and Michigan, and could ruin either or both of those teams Rose Bowl hopes. But I seriously doubt that an undefeated Ohio State will have enough respect to get a split national title from the AP. (They are fifth this morning.)
8) Oregon State (7-1, 5-1, +10)
9) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +10) - The Tigers don't get punished much for losing to the #1 team in the country by a last-minute touchdown, dropping from 7th to 9th. (5th to 9th in the AP.) However, their second loss seriously damaged their chances at securing an at-large BCS bowl berth. Their head-to-head loss to Florida looms large, and they would probably be picked after a two-loss Georgia team, too, unless the Bulldogs just get blown out by Alabama in the SEC Championship game. The Tigers still have work to do, with Mississippi State up next. Even if they miss out on the Sugar Bowl, a Cotton Bowl berth against, say, Texas or Oklahoma would be nothing to sneeze at.
10) Louisville (9-0, 4-0, +9)
11) Oklahoma (6-2, 4-1, +7)
12) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
13) Kent State (8-1, 5-0, +6)
14) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
15) Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2, +5)
16) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
17) Toledo (8-1, 5-0, +4) - Toledo is ranked for the first time ever this week, debuting at #23 in the AP poll. Northern Illinois, Kent State, and Ohio have all received votes, too. The MAC won't get settled out for another two weeks, when Toledo plays at Northern Illinois on Wednesday, Nov. 14, and Ohio plays at Kent State on Friday, Nov. 23. I highly doubt that even a one-loss MAC champ will be invited to a BCS bowl, although it is possible, especially since the Big Ten will probably only be sending one team this year.
18) Clemson (8-1, 5-1, +4)
19) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3) - In case you didn't notice, there were two games played in the Los Angeles area last night, and the same Arizona team that beat USC 39-36 last week fell on the road to UCLA 66-10. In the first half, Arizona had 79 yards on 25 plays, and the Bruins led 42-3 at the half. UCLA, USC, and Arizona State all still have a chance at winning the Pac-12 South. The Bruins have a one-game lead and hold the tie-breaker over ASU, with game left at Wazzu, vs. USC, and the finale at home against Stanford. Arizona State needs to beat USC and then have UCLA lose twice. The Trojans can still win the division by winning out: They host ASU next week and then take on the Bruins in the Rose Bowl on Nov. 17th. That game should be fun.
20) Stanford (7-2, 5-1, +3) - Stanford beat Colorado, ending a brutal three-game stretch where the Buffaloes lost at USC 50-6, at Oregon 70-14, and against Stanford 48-0. The Cardinal end their season at home against Oregon State, at Oregon, and at UCLA. (APs, 13, 2, and 17). Next week's OSU game will essentially be a "play-in" for the Pac-12 North Division, with the winner getting a shot at the Ducks for the division title and the loser having 2 conference losses and awaiting a Holiday Bowl invitation in the mail.
21) Texas (7-2, 4-2, +3)
22) Ohio (8-1, 4-1, +3)
23) Texas Tech (6-3, 3-3, +3)
24) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
25) Louisiana Tech (8-1, 3-0, +2)
My Top 25
1) Alabama (9-0, 6-0, +18)
2) Notre Dame (9-0, 0-0, +17)
3) Kansas State (9-0, 6-0, +17)
4) Oregon (9-0, 6-0, +15)
5) Georgia (8-1, 6-1, +11)
6) Florida (8-1, 7-1, +12)
7) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
8) Oregon State (7-1, 5-1, +10)
9) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +10)
10) Louisville (9-0, 4-0, +9)
11) Oklahoma (6-2, 4-1, +7)
12) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
13) Kent State (8-1, 5-0, +6)
14) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
15) Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2, +5)
16) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
17) Toledo (8-1, 5-0, +4)
18) Clemson (8-1, 5-1, +4)
19) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3)
20) Stanford (7-2, 5-1, +3)
21) Texas (7-2, 4-2, +3)
22) Ohio (8-1, 4-1, +3)
23) Texas Tech (6-3, 3-3, +3)
24) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
25) Louisiana Tech (8-1, 3-0, +2)
Arizona (5-3, 2-3, +1)
Nebraska (7-2, 4-1, 0)
Boise State (7-2, 4-1, -1)
Mississippi State (7-2, 3-2, -1)
San Jose State (7-2, 5-1, -1)
Washington (5-4, 3-3, -1)
Michigan (6-3, 4-1, -2)
USC (6-3, 4-3, -3)
Cincinnati (5-2, 1-1, -4)
Utah State (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Tulsa (7-2, 4-0, -5)
West Virginia (5-3, 2-3, -5)
Northwestern (7-2, 3-2, -5)
Penn State (6-3, 4-1, -5)
UCF (7-2, 5-0, -5)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-3, 4-1, -6)
Temple (3-5, 2-3, -6)
Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1, -6)
Western Kentucky (6-3, 3-2, -7)
Ball State (6-3, 3-2, -7)
Arkansas State (6-3, 4-1, -7)
Fresno State (7-3, 5-1, -7)
San Diego State (7-3, 5-1, -8)
Iowa State (4-4, 1-4, -8)
TCU (6-3, 3-3, -8)
Vanderbilt (5-4, 3-3, -8)
Arizona State (5-4, 3-3, -9)
Mississippi (5-4, 2-3, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
Miami (FL) (5-4, 4-2, -9)
Middle Tennessee State (6-3, 4-1, -9)
Duke (6-4, 3-3, -10)
North Carolina (6-3, 3-2, -11)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Wisconsin (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Bowling Green (6-3, 4-1, -12)
Navy (6-3, 0-0, -12)
Syracuse (3-4, 2-1, -13)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-3, 3-2, -13)
North Carolina State (5-4, 2-3, -14)
Missouri (4-5, 1-5, -14)
Tennessee (4-5, 0-5, -14)
Baylor (4-3, 1-3, -14)
East Carolina (6-4, 5-1, -16)
Michigan State (5-5, 2-4, -17)
Pittsburgh (4-5, 1-3, -18)
Arkansas (4-5, 2-3, -18)
Wake Forest (5-4, 3-4, -18)
South Florida (3-5, 1-3, -18)
Texas-San Antonio (5-4, 1-3, -19)
Minnesota (5-4, 1-4, -19)
Air Force (5-4, 4-1, -19)
Utah (4-5, 2-4, -19)
Houston (4-5, 4-2, -21)
Indiana (4-5, 2-3, -21)
Miami (OH) (4-5, 3-2, -21)
Texas State (3-5, 0-2, -23)
Iowa (4-5, 2-3, -24)
Troy (4-5, 3-3, -24)
Marshall (4-5, 3-2, -25)
Maryland (4-5, 2-3, -26)
North Texas (3-6, 2-3, -26)
Virginia Tech (4-5, 2-3, -26)
SMU (4-5, 3-2, -26)
Georgia Tech (4-5, 3-3, -26)
New Mexico (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Purdue (3-6, 0-5, -28)
Central Michigan (3-6, 1-4, -28)
Washington State (2-7, 0-6, -29)
Connecticut (3-6, 0-4, -29)
Rice (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Auburn (2-7, 0-6, -31)
Western Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Florida Atlantic (2-7, 1-4, -32)
Buffalo (2-7, 1-4,-33)
Virginia (3-6, 1-4, -33)
California (3-7, 2-5, -35)
Colorado (1-8, 1-5, -36)
Illinois (2-7, 0-5, -36)
UTEP (2-7, 1-4, -37)
Hawaii (1-7, 0-5, -38)
South Alabama (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Boston College (2-7, 1-5, -38)
UAB (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Wyoming (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Tulane (2-7, 2-5, -40)
Army (2-7, 0-0, -40)
Colorado State (2-7, 1-4, -40)
Kansas (1-8, 0-6, -41)
New Mexico State (1-8, 0-4, -42)
Kentucky (1-9, 0-7, -42)
Idaho (1-8, 1-2, -44)
Florida International (2-8, 1-5, -45)
UNLV (2-8, 2-3, -45)
Eastern Michigan (1-8, 0-5, -46)
Memphis (1-8, 1-4, -47)
Akron (1-9, 0-6, -48)
Massachusetts (0-9, 0-5, -50)
Southern Miss (0-9, 0-5, -50)
2) Notre Dame (9-0, 0-0, +17)
3) Kansas State (9-0, 6-0, +17)
4) Oregon (9-0, 6-0, +15)
5) Georgia (8-1, 6-1, +11)
6) Florida (8-1, 7-1, +12)
7) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0, +10)
8) Oregon State (7-1, 5-1, +10)
9) LSU (7-2, 3-2, +10)
10) Louisville (9-0, 4-0, +9)
11) Oklahoma (6-2, 4-1, +7)
12) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
13) Kent State (8-1, 5-0, +6)
14) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
15) Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2, +5)
16) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
17) Toledo (8-1, 5-0, +4)
18) Clemson (8-1, 5-1, +4)
19) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3)
20) Stanford (7-2, 5-1, +3)
21) Texas (7-2, 4-2, +3)
22) Ohio (8-1, 4-1, +3)
23) Texas Tech (6-3, 3-3, +3)
24) Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0, +3)
25) Louisiana Tech (8-1, 3-0, +2)
Arizona (5-3, 2-3, +1)
Nebraska (7-2, 4-1, 0)
Boise State (7-2, 4-1, -1)
Mississippi State (7-2, 3-2, -1)
San Jose State (7-2, 5-1, -1)
Washington (5-4, 3-3, -1)
Michigan (6-3, 4-1, -2)
USC (6-3, 4-3, -3)
Cincinnati (5-2, 1-1, -4)
Utah State (8-2, 5-0, -4)
Tulsa (7-2, 4-0, -5)
West Virginia (5-3, 2-3, -5)
Northwestern (7-2, 3-2, -5)
Penn State (6-3, 4-1, -5)
UCF (7-2, 5-0, -5)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-3, 4-1, -6)
Temple (3-5, 2-3, -6)
Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1, -6)
Western Kentucky (6-3, 3-2, -7)
Ball State (6-3, 3-2, -7)
Arkansas State (6-3, 4-1, -7)
Fresno State (7-3, 5-1, -7)
San Diego State (7-3, 5-1, -8)
Iowa State (4-4, 1-4, -8)
TCU (6-3, 3-3, -8)
Vanderbilt (5-4, 3-3, -8)
Arizona State (5-4, 3-3, -9)
Mississippi (5-4, 2-3, -9)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
Miami (FL) (5-4, 4-2, -9)
Middle Tennessee State (6-3, 4-1, -9)
Duke (6-4, 3-3, -10)
North Carolina (6-3, 3-2, -11)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Wisconsin (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Bowling Green (6-3, 4-1, -12)
Navy (6-3, 0-0, -12)
Syracuse (3-4, 2-1, -13)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-3, 3-2, -13)
North Carolina State (5-4, 2-3, -14)
Missouri (4-5, 1-5, -14)
Tennessee (4-5, 0-5, -14)
Baylor (4-3, 1-3, -14)
East Carolina (6-4, 5-1, -16)
Michigan State (5-5, 2-4, -17)
Pittsburgh (4-5, 1-3, -18)
Arkansas (4-5, 2-3, -18)
Wake Forest (5-4, 3-4, -18)
South Florida (3-5, 1-3, -18)
Texas-San Antonio (5-4, 1-3, -19)
Minnesota (5-4, 1-4, -19)
Air Force (5-4, 4-1, -19)
Utah (4-5, 2-4, -19)
Houston (4-5, 4-2, -21)
Indiana (4-5, 2-3, -21)
Miami (OH) (4-5, 3-2, -21)
Texas State (3-5, 0-2, -23)
Iowa (4-5, 2-3, -24)
Troy (4-5, 3-3, -24)
Marshall (4-5, 3-2, -25)
Maryland (4-5, 2-3, -26)
North Texas (3-6, 2-3, -26)
Virginia Tech (4-5, 2-3, -26)
SMU (4-5, 3-2, -26)
Georgia Tech (4-5, 3-3, -26)
New Mexico (4-6, 1-4, -28)
Purdue (3-6, 0-5, -28)
Central Michigan (3-6, 1-4, -28)
Washington State (2-7, 0-6, -29)
Connecticut (3-6, 0-4, -29)
Rice (4-6, 2-4, -30)
Auburn (2-7, 0-6, -31)
Western Michigan (4-6, 2-4, -32)
Florida Atlantic (2-7, 1-4, -32)
Buffalo (2-7, 1-4,-33)
Virginia (3-6, 1-4, -33)
California (3-7, 2-5, -35)
Colorado (1-8, 1-5, -36)
Illinois (2-7, 0-5, -36)
UTEP (2-7, 1-4, -37)
Hawaii (1-7, 0-5, -38)
South Alabama (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Boston College (2-7, 1-5, -38)
UAB (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Wyoming (2-7, 1-4, -38)
Tulane (2-7, 2-5, -40)
Army (2-7, 0-0, -40)
Colorado State (2-7, 1-4, -40)
Kansas (1-8, 0-6, -41)
New Mexico State (1-8, 0-4, -42)
Kentucky (1-9, 0-7, -42)
Idaho (1-8, 1-2, -44)
Florida International (2-8, 1-5, -45)
UNLV (2-8, 2-3, -45)
Eastern Michigan (1-8, 0-5, -46)
Memphis (1-8, 1-4, -47)
Akron (1-9, 0-6, -48)
Massachusetts (0-9, 0-5, -50)
Southern Miss (0-9, 0-5, -50)
Saturday, November 3, 2012
On Football and Fashion
A quick observation: The Ducks, in white and silver, look like ghosts or bones imprinted with wings on the field against USC, adorned in their mortal red and gold, blood and flesh. Reminiscent of Book VI of the Aeneid.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Bowl Predictions
BCS National Championship - Alabama (13-0) vs. Notre Dame (12-0) - OK, these are not what I actually think will happen this season. If you put a gun to my head - and please don't do that - I would say the NCG will be Oregon vs. Alabama. But what do I know? Instead, I want to start from one simple premise, and then follow out what the bowl implications might be. This week: 10-1 Oregon State beats 11-0 Oregon in the Civil War. The Beavers jump out to a quick 28-10 lead. The Ducks put on a furious comeback, and tie it 31-31, forcing overtime. Oregon State hits a field goal, and then, on the next possession, De'Anthony Thomas and Marcus Mariota screw up a simple hand off, turning the ball over, and the Beavers win, 34-31. The fans storm the field. Oregon State then stomps on USC 28-7 and wins the Pac-12.
Alabama rolls. The Irish win out, and edge K-State in the rankings. The two teams meet in one of the most hyped college football games of all time; four horsemen, the ghost of Bear Bryant. Lou Holtz literally has to be committed to an insane asylum he's so excited. When the game starts, Alabama quickly builds a 17-0 lead, and then Saban spends the rest of the game taking a knee. Because he can, that's why. Tide win, 17-0.
Rose - Oregon State (12-1) vs. Nebraska (10-3) - The Beavers last went to the Rose Bowl in 1957, a 35-19 loss to Iowa. They last won the Rose Bowl in 1942, when they beat Duke 20-16 and the game was played in North Carolina because the Japanese had bombed Pearl Harbor three weeks earlier. They have never won a Rose Bowl game played in Pasadena. Nebraska is 0-2 in the Rose Bowl, their last appearance being the 2002 Championship, when the bastards stole the spot from Oregon and lost to Miami 37-14. I would pick the Beavers in this game, since they beat UCLA 27-20 and UCLA beat Nebraska 36-30. Beavers win, 28-17.
Fiesta - Kansas State (12-0) vs. Oregon (11-1) - Somewhere, there is an alternate universe where Oregon and Kansas State hadn't cancelled their scheduled home-and-home, and we saw this game played in September. In another universe, college football has a sane post season system, and the winner of this game gets to play the winner of Alabama-ND a week after New Year's. And then there's this universe, where the Fiesta Bowl grabs the one-loss Ducks and sets them up against the stingy defense of Kansas State. Ducks win, 39-31.
Sugar - Georgia (11-2) vs. Clemson (10-2) - Who, hypothetically, would the Sugar Bowl pick to match-up against the SEC? First pick would be Notre Dame, unless they get grabbed by the BCS or the Fiesta. Second would be Oklahoma, unless they finish with three or more losses. Third would be a Big Ten team, but Michigan and Wisconsin already have 3 losses. (And not Northwestern.) So I'll go with ACC runner-up Clemson. That or 11-1 MWC champ Boise State. Bulldogs win, 35-7.
Orange - Florida State (11-2) vs. Rutgers (11-1) - Somebody's got to pick the Big East champ. As long as the Orange Bowl gets FSU, they could match them up with Tennessee Technical College and be happy. Anything to put butts in the seats. Seminoles win, 48-7.
Cotton - Oklahoma vs. Florida
Capital One - Michigan vs. LSU
Outback - Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Gator - Michigan St. vs. Texas A&M
Peach - North Carolina vs. Mississippi St.
Alamo - Stanford vs. Texas
Russell Athletic - Louisville vs. Virginia Tech
Insight - Northwestern vs. West Virginia - I wonder if the Mountaineers are starting to regret their shift to the Big 12 because of the costs of travel. Two trips to Texas, one to Iowa, one to Oklahoma. A bowl trip to Arizona might just break the bank.
Holiday - USC vs. Texas Tech - The Disappointment Bowl. Seriously, going back five years, the Holiday Bowl always has somebody who thought they were going to a BCS bowl, and is all pissed that they have to settle for some second tier December bowl in San Diego.
Sun - UCLA vs. Miami (FL) - Kaching! Maybe not as big of a payday as when the Sun Bowl got Miami v Notre Dame, but a 7-5 Hurricanes team is a team that any bowl would jump for.
Belk - Cincinnati vs. North Carolina St.
Las Vegas - Boise St. vs. Arizona - Boise State is currently 19th in the AP Poll. If they win the Mountain West and finish in the Top 12, they could have a shot at a BCS bowl.
Texas - Oklahoma St. vs. Minnesota - Minnesota hasn't been to a bowl since 2009, and haven't won one since the 2004 Music City Bowl against ... Alabama. In 2003, they won the Sun Bowl against Oregon.
Poinsettia - BYU vs. Nevada
Kraft Fight Hunger - Navy vs. Arizona St.
Pinstripe - Syracuse vs. Iowa St. - Hypothetically, the Orange could still win the Big East at 7-5, and get an auto bid to the BCS. They could also finish 4-8, with games against Cincinnati, Louisville, and Missouri still ahead.
......
........
Alabama rolls. The Irish win out, and edge K-State in the rankings. The two teams meet in one of the most hyped college football games of all time; four horsemen, the ghost of Bear Bryant. Lou Holtz literally has to be committed to an insane asylum he's so excited. When the game starts, Alabama quickly builds a 17-0 lead, and then Saban spends the rest of the game taking a knee. Because he can, that's why. Tide win, 17-0.
Rose - Oregon State (12-1) vs. Nebraska (10-3) - The Beavers last went to the Rose Bowl in 1957, a 35-19 loss to Iowa. They last won the Rose Bowl in 1942, when they beat Duke 20-16 and the game was played in North Carolina because the Japanese had bombed Pearl Harbor three weeks earlier. They have never won a Rose Bowl game played in Pasadena. Nebraska is 0-2 in the Rose Bowl, their last appearance being the 2002 Championship, when the bastards stole the spot from Oregon and lost to Miami 37-14. I would pick the Beavers in this game, since they beat UCLA 27-20 and UCLA beat Nebraska 36-30. Beavers win, 28-17.
Fiesta - Kansas State (12-0) vs. Oregon (11-1) - Somewhere, there is an alternate universe where Oregon and Kansas State hadn't cancelled their scheduled home-and-home, and we saw this game played in September. In another universe, college football has a sane post season system, and the winner of this game gets to play the winner of Alabama-ND a week after New Year's. And then there's this universe, where the Fiesta Bowl grabs the one-loss Ducks and sets them up against the stingy defense of Kansas State. Ducks win, 39-31.
Sugar - Georgia (11-2) vs. Clemson (10-2) - Who, hypothetically, would the Sugar Bowl pick to match-up against the SEC? First pick would be Notre Dame, unless they get grabbed by the BCS or the Fiesta. Second would be Oklahoma, unless they finish with three or more losses. Third would be a Big Ten team, but Michigan and Wisconsin already have 3 losses. (And not Northwestern.) So I'll go with ACC runner-up Clemson. That or 11-1 MWC champ Boise State. Bulldogs win, 35-7.
Orange - Florida State (11-2) vs. Rutgers (11-1) - Somebody's got to pick the Big East champ. As long as the Orange Bowl gets FSU, they could match them up with Tennessee Technical College and be happy. Anything to put butts in the seats. Seminoles win, 48-7.
Cotton - Oklahoma vs. Florida
Capital One - Michigan vs. LSU
Outback - Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Gator - Michigan St. vs. Texas A&M
Peach - North Carolina vs. Mississippi St.
Alamo - Stanford vs. Texas
Russell Athletic - Louisville vs. Virginia Tech
Insight - Northwestern vs. West Virginia - I wonder if the Mountaineers are starting to regret their shift to the Big 12 because of the costs of travel. Two trips to Texas, one to Iowa, one to Oklahoma. A bowl trip to Arizona might just break the bank.
Holiday - USC vs. Texas Tech - The Disappointment Bowl. Seriously, going back five years, the Holiday Bowl always has somebody who thought they were going to a BCS bowl, and is all pissed that they have to settle for some second tier December bowl in San Diego.
Sun - UCLA vs. Miami (FL) - Kaching! Maybe not as big of a payday as when the Sun Bowl got Miami v Notre Dame, but a 7-5 Hurricanes team is a team that any bowl would jump for.
Belk - Cincinnati vs. North Carolina St.
Las Vegas - Boise St. vs. Arizona - Boise State is currently 19th in the AP Poll. If they win the Mountain West and finish in the Top 12, they could have a shot at a BCS bowl.
Texas - Oklahoma St. vs. Minnesota - Minnesota hasn't been to a bowl since 2009, and haven't won one since the 2004 Music City Bowl against ... Alabama. In 2003, they won the Sun Bowl against Oregon.
Poinsettia - BYU vs. Nevada
Kraft Fight Hunger - Navy vs. Arizona St.
Pinstripe - Syracuse vs. Iowa St. - Hypothetically, the Orange could still win the Big East at 7-5, and get an auto bid to the BCS. They could also finish 4-8, with games against Cincinnati, Louisville, and Missouri still ahead.
......
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Power Rankings - Oct. 28
1) Notre Dame (8-0, 0-0, +16) - We are now in bizarro world, where I feel like I have to defend the Irish against the skeptics, who had Notre Dame as double-digit underdogs against Oklahoma, but whom they beat 30-13. Of course, I also undersold Notre Dame earlier in the evening:
2) Kansas State (8-0, 5-0, +16) - Speaking of defense, Kansas State held Texas Tech to 5.7 yards per play and forced three turnovers and one blocked field goal in administering a 55-24 beatdown in the town of old Manhattoes, KS. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats scored on eight consecutive drives, with QB Collin Klein throwing 19/26, 233 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, plus adding 83 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs on 12 rushes. K-State has an easier schedule than Oregon but harder than Notre Dame ahead, with Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas. I think they'll need both the Ducks and the Irish to lose to get to the national championship.
3) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +14) - Well, the Ducks did their part, beating poor Colorado 70-14 behind a balanced attack that had six different players score touchdowns and four players rushing for 67 yards are more. Next week is their big trip to L.A. to take on the Trojans. Unfortunately, losses by Oregon State and USC make Oregon's future schedule look a lot less daunting, which means that the Ducks are not going to get any love from the computers in the BCS polls.
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13) - Another day, another boring step in the march of inevitability that is the Alabama Crimson Tide's 2012 Season. In their 38-7 win over previously undefeated Mississippi State, the Tide got out to a quick 21-0 lead. They then settled in, and we got to watch the teams combine for 7 consecutive three-and-outs, 16 yards of offense on 21 plays for 11:28 of game time. Yawn.
5) Georgia (7-1, 5-1, +10) - Georgia's defense must have gotten tired of my smack-talking, as they stepped it up in a big way in a 17-9 win over Florida. Florida QB Jeff Driskel was 14/26 for 185 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs, and was sacked five times. On the ground, the Gator rushing attack that gashed LSU was held to 81 yards on 2.0 yards per attempt. The Bulldogs are now in the driver's seat in the SEC East, needing wins against 5-3 Ole Miss and 1-7 Auburn to get to the conference championship and what is essentially a play-in for the national championship.
6) Florida (7-1, 6-1, +11) - Florida, for their part, looked terrible. If they had won, the Gators could've clinched their division before the start of November, and coasted the rest of the year. Now, they're going to need Georgia to suffer a massive upset of some kind in order to sneak back in. On the other hand, if Florida wins out, beating Florida State, and there are no non-SEC undefeated teams left, the Gators may be the best option for an all-SEC Championship against Alabama.
7) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11) - Going back to November of 2010, the Alabama Crimson Tide are 25-3. Two of those losses have been to LSU. The Tigers get their shot next week, and it will be interesting to see what Les Miles has planned over the course of the bye week. If LSU pulls off the upset and wins the SEC, then we could conceivably have another LSU-Alabama rematch, although I think that that would require there to be 0 eligible undefeated teams in the rest of the country.
8) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +9) - The Big Ten's season from Hell continues. Ohio State beat Penn State 35-23, and are one step closer to finishing the season 12-0 and sitting at home in January. (Imagine that, if they're watching 12-1 LSU vs. 11-1 Alabama!) The Buckeyes still have to play Michigan and Wisconsin, who both lost, although for the Badgers it was essentially meaningless, as they remain the only bowl eligible team in the P-Pow-I-I division with more than one conference win. The biggest loser in all of this might be the Rose Bowl, who, if the Ducks go to the NC, might end up with a match-up of 8-5 Wisconsin against 9-4 USC.
9) Oregon State (6-1, 4-1, +9) - Well, damn. The Beavers hopes of an undefeated season ended with their 17-20 loss at Washington. The Huskies are a totally schizophrenic team, but I think I've figured them out: at home, they're 4-1, with wins over Stanford and Oregon State. On the road, they're 0-3, losing 3-41 at LSU, 21-52 at Oregon, and 17-52 at Arizona. Three of Washington's last four games are on the road, but two of those are at Colorado and Washington State, so maybe they'll be able to turn it around. As for the Beavers, they've got no time to feel sorry for themselves, as they host Arizona State next week. The Rose Bowl is still very much a possibility.
10) Louisville (8-0, 3-0, +8)
11) Oklahoma (5-2, 3-1, +6)
12) Texas Tech (6-2, 3-2, +9)
13) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6) - Florida State whooped feel-good story of the year Duke at home, 48-7. Strangely enough, this might not be the last time these two teams meet. The Seminoles have two more conference games, at Virginia Tech and at Maryland, and if they win those they're in the ACC Championship. However, there are five teams that they could conceivably play there. And despite the loss, Duke could still meet them, if the Blue Devils can win out against Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami (FL). If I were to bet, though, I would guess that Duke will stumble, and that North Carolina will take their place.
14) Mississippi State (7-1, 3-1, +5)
15) Boise State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
16) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5) - It was a Pyrrhic Victory for South Carolina, 38-35 against Tennessee. Georgia's win over Florida means that, statistically at least, the Gamecocks can still win the SEC East, although they would need both the Gators and the Bulldogs to lose once. Also, RB Marcus Lattimore's horrific leg injury reminded us that we are all participating in a system in which poor Black men mutilate one another for our entertainment without compensation.
17) Kent State (7-1, 4-0, +5) - Yes, I realize that I have four MAC teams in my top 25. Don't blame me. Blame the Big Ten and Big East teams that keep losing to them. With Kent State's 35-23 win over previously undefeated Rutgers, the MAC is now 24-26 in all non-conference games, including 3-9 against the Big Ten and 3-4 against the Big East. (Although Kent State's one loss was 14-47 at Kentucky.) (Which is Kentucky's only win so far this season.)
18) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
19) Toledo (8-1, 4-0, +4) - Toledo's only loss was 17-24 in OT at Arizona, who has also beaten Oklahoma State and USC. Their best win was two weeks ago, 29-23 versus Cincinnati.
20) Clemson (7-1, 4-1, +3)
21) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3) - I'm telling you guys, UCLA is good. Top 20 good, at least. They came through in a tough 45-43 win at Arizona State which, with USC's loss, created a 3-way tie in the Pac-12 South Division. The Sun Devils still have to play at Oregon State, at USC, vs. Wazzu, at Arizona. The Trojans get Oregon, ASU, and at UCLA. With their upset of USC, Arizona is a game back, with at UCLA, vs. Colorado, at Utah, vs ASU. The Bruins get to host Arizona next week, and they end their season with at Washington State, vs. USC, vs. Stanford. The announcers on Saturday were talking like UCLA can win that 'SC game. The Bruins should start believing it, too.
22) Ohio (7-1, 3-1, +2) - On the one hand, Ohio lost to Miami of Ohio. On the other, they beat Penn State, who is currently 3-1 in the Big Ten. On the third hand, this gives me four teams from Ohio in my top 25. Ohio.
23) Stanford (6-2, 4-1, +2) - Kind of lurking in the background of all this Pac-12 insanity is Stanford, who won an ugly game at home against Washington St., 24-17, and could still win the Pac-12 North. They have Colorado next week, and then back-to-back games against Oregon State and Oregon. If both the Cardinal and the Beavers can take care of business next week (never a given) then that Nov. 10 showdown could be huge, with definite BCS implications.
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Northern Illinois (7-1, 4-0, +1)
#Irish 17, #Sooners 13.Any team with a real defense can beat the Sooners (see below), and Notre Dame made them essentially one dimensional, allowing 15 rushing yards on 24 attempts, and allowing only three of Oklahoma's 13 drives to end in scores. I think it would be absurd for an undefeated anyone who has beaten Michigan, Michigan St., Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC to be denied a spot in the championship, but we'll see. Basically, a lot is going to be in the hands of the Trojans at the end of the season.
— Joel Wright (@joelwrig) October 28, 2012
2) Kansas State (8-0, 5-0, +16) - Speaking of defense, Kansas State held Texas Tech to 5.7 yards per play and forced three turnovers and one blocked field goal in administering a 55-24 beatdown in the town of old Manhattoes, KS. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats scored on eight consecutive drives, with QB Collin Klein throwing 19/26, 233 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, plus adding 83 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs on 12 rushes. K-State has an easier schedule than Oregon but harder than Notre Dame ahead, with Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas. I think they'll need both the Ducks and the Irish to lose to get to the national championship.
3) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +14) - Well, the Ducks did their part, beating poor Colorado 70-14 behind a balanced attack that had six different players score touchdowns and four players rushing for 67 yards are more. Next week is their big trip to L.A. to take on the Trojans. Unfortunately, losses by Oregon State and USC make Oregon's future schedule look a lot less daunting, which means that the Ducks are not going to get any love from the computers in the BCS polls.
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13) - Another day, another boring step in the march of inevitability that is the Alabama Crimson Tide's 2012 Season. In their 38-7 win over previously undefeated Mississippi State, the Tide got out to a quick 21-0 lead. They then settled in, and we got to watch the teams combine for 7 consecutive three-and-outs, 16 yards of offense on 21 plays for 11:28 of game time. Yawn.
5) Georgia (7-1, 5-1, +10) - Georgia's defense must have gotten tired of my smack-talking, as they stepped it up in a big way in a 17-9 win over Florida. Florida QB Jeff Driskel was 14/26 for 185 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs, and was sacked five times. On the ground, the Gator rushing attack that gashed LSU was held to 81 yards on 2.0 yards per attempt. The Bulldogs are now in the driver's seat in the SEC East, needing wins against 5-3 Ole Miss and 1-7 Auburn to get to the conference championship and what is essentially a play-in for the national championship.
6) Florida (7-1, 6-1, +11) - Florida, for their part, looked terrible. If they had won, the Gators could've clinched their division before the start of November, and coasted the rest of the year. Now, they're going to need Georgia to suffer a massive upset of some kind in order to sneak back in. On the other hand, if Florida wins out, beating Florida State, and there are no non-SEC undefeated teams left, the Gators may be the best option for an all-SEC Championship against Alabama.
7) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11) - Going back to November of 2010, the Alabama Crimson Tide are 25-3. Two of those losses have been to LSU. The Tigers get their shot next week, and it will be interesting to see what Les Miles has planned over the course of the bye week. If LSU pulls off the upset and wins the SEC, then we could conceivably have another LSU-Alabama rematch, although I think that that would require there to be 0 eligible undefeated teams in the rest of the country.
8) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +9) - The Big Ten's season from Hell continues. Ohio State beat Penn State 35-23, and are one step closer to finishing the season 12-0 and sitting at home in January. (Imagine that, if they're watching 12-1 LSU vs. 11-1 Alabama!) The Buckeyes still have to play Michigan and Wisconsin, who both lost, although for the Badgers it was essentially meaningless, as they remain the only bowl eligible team in the P-Pow-I-I division with more than one conference win. The biggest loser in all of this might be the Rose Bowl, who, if the Ducks go to the NC, might end up with a match-up of 8-5 Wisconsin against 9-4 USC.
9) Oregon State (6-1, 4-1, +9) - Well, damn. The Beavers hopes of an undefeated season ended with their 17-20 loss at Washington. The Huskies are a totally schizophrenic team, but I think I've figured them out: at home, they're 4-1, with wins over Stanford and Oregon State. On the road, they're 0-3, losing 3-41 at LSU, 21-52 at Oregon, and 17-52 at Arizona. Three of Washington's last four games are on the road, but two of those are at Colorado and Washington State, so maybe they'll be able to turn it around. As for the Beavers, they've got no time to feel sorry for themselves, as they host Arizona State next week. The Rose Bowl is still very much a possibility.
10) Louisville (8-0, 3-0, +8)
11) Oklahoma (5-2, 3-1, +6)
12) Texas Tech (6-2, 3-2, +9)
13) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6) - Florida State whooped feel-good story of the year Duke at home, 48-7. Strangely enough, this might not be the last time these two teams meet. The Seminoles have two more conference games, at Virginia Tech and at Maryland, and if they win those they're in the ACC Championship. However, there are five teams that they could conceivably play there. And despite the loss, Duke could still meet them, if the Blue Devils can win out against Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami (FL). If I were to bet, though, I would guess that Duke will stumble, and that North Carolina will take their place.
14) Mississippi State (7-1, 3-1, +5)
15) Boise State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
16) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5) - It was a Pyrrhic Victory for South Carolina, 38-35 against Tennessee. Georgia's win over Florida means that, statistically at least, the Gamecocks can still win the SEC East, although they would need both the Gators and the Bulldogs to lose once. Also, RB Marcus Lattimore's horrific leg injury reminded us that we are all participating in a system in which poor Black men mutilate one another for our entertainment without compensation.
17) Kent State (7-1, 4-0, +5) - Yes, I realize that I have four MAC teams in my top 25. Don't blame me. Blame the Big Ten and Big East teams that keep losing to them. With Kent State's 35-23 win over previously undefeated Rutgers, the MAC is now 24-26 in all non-conference games, including 3-9 against the Big Ten and 3-4 against the Big East. (Although Kent State's one loss was 14-47 at Kentucky.) (Which is Kentucky's only win so far this season.)
18) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
19) Toledo (8-1, 4-0, +4) - Toledo's only loss was 17-24 in OT at Arizona, who has also beaten Oklahoma State and USC. Their best win was two weeks ago, 29-23 versus Cincinnati.
20) Clemson (7-1, 4-1, +3)
21) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3) - I'm telling you guys, UCLA is good. Top 20 good, at least. They came through in a tough 45-43 win at Arizona State which, with USC's loss, created a 3-way tie in the Pac-12 South Division. The Sun Devils still have to play at Oregon State, at USC, vs. Wazzu, at Arizona. The Trojans get Oregon, ASU, and at UCLA. With their upset of USC, Arizona is a game back, with at UCLA, vs. Colorado, at Utah, vs ASU. The Bruins get to host Arizona next week, and they end their season with at Washington State, vs. USC, vs. Stanford. The announcers on Saturday were talking like UCLA can win that 'SC game. The Bruins should start believing it, too.
22) Ohio (7-1, 3-1, +2) - On the one hand, Ohio lost to Miami of Ohio. On the other, they beat Penn State, who is currently 3-1 in the Big Ten. On the third hand, this gives me four teams from Ohio in my top 25. Ohio.
23) Stanford (6-2, 4-1, +2) - Kind of lurking in the background of all this Pac-12 insanity is Stanford, who won an ugly game at home against Washington St., 24-17, and could still win the Pac-12 North. They have Colorado next week, and then back-to-back games against Oregon State and Oregon. If both the Cardinal and the Beavers can take care of business next week (never a given) then that Nov. 10 showdown could be huge, with definite BCS implications.
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Northern Illinois (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Saturday, October 27, 2012
My Top 25
1) Notre Dame (8-0, 0-0, +16)
2) Kansas State (8-0, 5-0, +16)
3) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +14)
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13)
5) Georgia (7-1, 5-1, +10)
6) Florida (7-1, 6-1, +11)
7) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11)
8) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +9)
9) Oregon State (6-1, 4-1, +9)
10) Louisville (8-0, 3-0, +8)
11) Oklahoma (5-2, 3-1, +6)
12) Texas Tech (6-2, 3-2, +9)
13) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
14) Mississippi State (7-1, 3-1, +5)
15) Boise State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
16) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
17) Kent State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
18) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
19) Toledo (8-1, 4-0, +4)
20) Clemson (7-1, 4-1, +3)
21) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3)
22) Ohio (7-1, 3-1, +2)
23) Stanford (6-2, 4-1, +2)
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Northern Illinois (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Tulsa (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2, +1)
Louisiana Tech (7-1, 2-0, +1)
Arizona (5-3, 2-3, +1)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-2, 5-0, 0)
Western Kentucky (6-2, 3-1, -1)
Texas (6-2, 3-2, -1)
Nebraska (6-2, 3-1, -1)
USC (6-2, 4-2, -2)
San Jose State (6-2, 2-1, -2)
Washington (4-4, 2-3, -2)
Michigan (5-3, 3-1, -3)
Cincinnati (5-2, 1-1, -4)
Temple (3-4, 2-2, -4)
Iowa State (4-3, 1-3, -5)
Northwestern (7-2, 3-2, -5)
Utah State (7-2, 4-0, -5)
Duke (6-3, 3-2, -6)
Penn State (5-3, 3-1, -6)
Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1, -6)
San Diego State (6-2, 4-0, -6)
Arizona State (5-3, 3-2, -7)
UCF (5-2, 3-0, -7)
Ball State (6-3, 2-2, -7)
North Carolina State (5-3, 2-2, -8)
Mississippi (5-3, 2-2, -8)
Arkansas State (5-3, 3-1, -8)
Fresno State (6-3, 4-1, -8)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
TCU (5-3, 2-3, -10)
Miami (FL) (4-4, 3-2, -10)
Vanderbilt (3-4, 2-3, -10)
Middle Tennessee State (5-3, 3-1, -10)
North Carolina (6-3, 3-2, -11)
Michigan State (5-4, 2-3, -11)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Wisconsin (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Missouri (4-4, 1-4, -12)
Bowling Green (6-3, 4-0, -12)
Texas-San Antonio (5-3, 1-2, -13)
Syracuse (3-4, 2-1, -13)
Minnesota (5-3, 1-3, -13)
Navy (5-3, 0-0, -13)
Air Force (5-3, 4-1, -13)
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, 3-2, -14)
Tennessee (3-5, 0-5, -15)
Baylor (3-3, 0-3, -15)
Houston (4-4, 4-1, -15)
Miami (OH) (3-4, 2-1, -16)
Texas State (3-4, 0-1, -17)
East Carolina (5-4, 2-1, -17)
Pittsburgh (4-4, 1-3, -17)
Iowa (4-4, 2-2, -18)
Troy (4-4, 3-3, -18)Arkansas (3-5, 2-3, -19)
Wake Forest (4-4, 2-4, -19)
South Florida (2-5, 0-3, -19)
Maryland (4-4, 2-2, -20)
North Texas (3-5, 2-3, -20)
Virginia Tech (4-4, 2-2, -20)
Utah (3-5, 1-4, -20)
SMU (4-4, 3-1, -20)
New Mexico (4-5, 0-3, -21)
Purdue (3-5, 0-4, -22)
Central Michigan (3-5, 1-3, -22)
Indiana (3-5, 1-3, -22)
Washington State (2-6, 0-5, -23)
Connecticut (3-5, 0-3, -23)
Marshall (3-5, 1-2, -26)
Hawaii (1-5, 0-2, -26)
Florida Atlantic (2-6, 1-3, -26)
Georgia Tech (3-5, 1-3, -27)
Western Michigan (3-5, 1-3, -27)
California (3-6, 2-4, -29)
UTEP (2-6, 1-2, -31)
Colorado (1-7, 1-4, -31)
Rice (3-6, 1-3, -31)
Auburn (1-7, 0-6, -32)
South Alabama (2-6, 1-3, -32)
Boston College (2-6, 1-4, -32)
Illinois (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Buffalo (1-7, 0-4,-34)
Virginia (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Tulane (2-6, 2-4, -34)
Kansas (1-7, 0-5, -35)
Memphis (1-6, 1-2, -35
Colorado State (1-6, 0-3, -35)
New Mexico State (1-7, 0-4, -36)
Kentucky (1-8, 0-6, -36)
Idaho (1-7, 1-1, -38)
UAB (1-7, 0-4, -39)
Wyoming (1-7, 0-4, -39)
Massachusetts (0-7, 0-3, -39)
Army (1-7, 0-0, -41)
Eastern Michigan (1-7, 0-3, -41)
Akron (1-8, 0-4, -43)
Southern Miss (0-8, 0-4, -44)
Florida International (1-8, 0-5, -46)
UNLV (1-8, 0-4, -46)
2) Kansas State (8-0, 5-0, +16)
3) Oregon (8-0, 5-0, +14)
4) Alabama (8-0, 5-0, +13)
5) Georgia (7-1, 5-1, +10)
6) Florida (7-1, 6-1, +11)
7) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11)
8) Ohio State (9-0, 5-0, +9)
9) Oregon State (6-1, 4-1, +9)
10) Louisville (8-0, 3-0, +8)
11) Oklahoma (5-2, 3-1, +6)
12) Texas Tech (6-2, 3-2, +9)
13) Florida State (8-1, 5-1, +6)
14) Mississippi State (7-1, 3-1, +5)
15) Boise State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
16) South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 , +5)
17) Kent State (7-1, 4-0, +5)
18) Rutgers (7-1, 4-0, +4)
19) Toledo (8-1, 4-0, +4)
20) Clemson (7-1, 4-1, +3)
21) UCLA (6-2, 3-2, +3)
22) Ohio (7-1, 3-1, +2)
23) Stanford (6-2, 4-1, +2)
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Northern Illinois (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Tulsa (7-1, 4-0, +1)
Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2, +1)
Louisiana Tech (7-1, 2-0, +1)
Arizona (5-3, 2-3, +1)
Louisiana-Monroe (6-2, 5-0, 0)
Western Kentucky (6-2, 3-1, -1)
Texas (6-2, 3-2, -1)
Nebraska (6-2, 3-1, -1)
USC (6-2, 4-2, -2)
San Jose State (6-2, 2-1, -2)
Washington (4-4, 2-3, -2)
Michigan (5-3, 3-1, -3)
Cincinnati (5-2, 1-1, -4)
Temple (3-4, 2-2, -4)
Iowa State (4-3, 1-3, -5)
Northwestern (7-2, 3-2, -5)
Utah State (7-2, 4-0, -5)
Duke (6-3, 3-2, -6)
Penn State (5-3, 3-1, -6)
Oklahoma State (5-2, 3-1, -6)
San Diego State (6-2, 4-0, -6)
Arizona State (5-3, 3-2, -7)
UCF (5-2, 3-0, -7)
Ball State (6-3, 2-2, -7)
North Carolina State (5-3, 2-2, -8)
Mississippi (5-3, 2-2, -8)
Arkansas State (5-3, 3-1, -8)
Fresno State (6-3, 4-1, -8)
Brigham Young (5-4, 0-0, -9)
TCU (5-3, 2-3, -10)
Miami (FL) (4-4, 3-2, -10)
Vanderbilt (3-4, 2-3, -10)
Middle Tennessee State (5-3, 3-1, -10)
North Carolina (6-3, 3-2, -11)
Michigan State (5-4, 2-3, -11)
Nevada (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Wisconsin (6-3, 3-2, -12)
Missouri (4-4, 1-4, -12)
Bowling Green (6-3, 4-0, -12)
Texas-San Antonio (5-3, 1-2, -13)
Syracuse (3-4, 2-1, -13)
Minnesota (5-3, 1-3, -13)
Navy (5-3, 0-0, -13)
Air Force (5-3, 4-1, -13)
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, 3-2, -14)
Tennessee (3-5, 0-5, -15)
Baylor (3-3, 0-3, -15)
Houston (4-4, 4-1, -15)
Miami (OH) (3-4, 2-1, -16)
Texas State (3-4, 0-1, -17)
East Carolina (5-4, 2-1, -17)
Pittsburgh (4-4, 1-3, -17)
Iowa (4-4, 2-2, -18)
Troy (4-4, 3-3, -18)Arkansas (3-5, 2-3, -19)
Wake Forest (4-4, 2-4, -19)
South Florida (2-5, 0-3, -19)
Maryland (4-4, 2-2, -20)
North Texas (3-5, 2-3, -20)
Virginia Tech (4-4, 2-2, -20)
Utah (3-5, 1-4, -20)
SMU (4-4, 3-1, -20)
New Mexico (4-5, 0-3, -21)
Purdue (3-5, 0-4, -22)
Central Michigan (3-5, 1-3, -22)
Indiana (3-5, 1-3, -22)
Washington State (2-6, 0-5, -23)
Connecticut (3-5, 0-3, -23)
Marshall (3-5, 1-2, -26)
Hawaii (1-5, 0-2, -26)
Florida Atlantic (2-6, 1-3, -26)
Georgia Tech (3-5, 1-3, -27)
Western Michigan (3-5, 1-3, -27)
California (3-6, 2-4, -29)
UTEP (2-6, 1-2, -31)
Colorado (1-7, 1-4, -31)
Rice (3-6, 1-3, -31)
Auburn (1-7, 0-6, -32)
South Alabama (2-6, 1-3, -32)
Boston College (2-6, 1-4, -32)
Illinois (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Buffalo (1-7, 0-4,-34)
Virginia (2-6, 0-4, -34)
Tulane (2-6, 2-4, -34)
Kansas (1-7, 0-5, -35)
Memphis (1-6, 1-2, -35
Colorado State (1-6, 0-3, -35)
New Mexico State (1-7, 0-4, -36)
Kentucky (1-8, 0-6, -36)
Idaho (1-7, 1-1, -38)
UAB (1-7, 0-4, -39)
Wyoming (1-7, 0-4, -39)
Massachusetts (0-7, 0-3, -39)
Army (1-7, 0-0, -41)
Eastern Michigan (1-7, 0-3, -41)
Akron (1-8, 0-4, -43)
Southern Miss (0-8, 0-4, -44)
Florida International (1-8, 0-5, -46)
UNLV (1-8, 0-4, -46)
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Power Rankings
1) Oregon State (6-0, 4-0, +15) - The Beavers notched their second consecutive win against the Beehive State, 21-7 at home against Utah, and now have their best start to the season since 1907. They climbed to 7th in this morning's AP poll, two spots behind Notre Dame. I would like to point out that Oregon State had 450 yards, 7.5 per play, in beating BYU 42-24, while allowing 4.6 yards per play and forcing three turnovers; yesterday, Notre Dame beat that same Cougars team 17-14, allowing 4.0 yards per play and forcing two turnovers while registering 389 yards of their own, 6.5 per play. So, yeah, Notre Dame's definitely better than Oregon State.
2) Florida (7-0, 6-0, +15) - Hopefully Florida's 44-11 dismantling of South Carolina made the Crimson Tide sit up and take notice. South Carolina turned the ball over four times, and at one point the Gators had 21 points on 24 total yards. Florida is for real, though, with wins against South Carolina, LSU, and Texas A&M. A lot will be at stake next week against Georgia. Then, strangely enough, the Gators have one more game, versus Missouri, and then they'll be done with their SEC schedule. They finish their season against Louisiana-Lafayette, Jacksonville State, and then at Florida State, in a game that might have BCS implications. (For the first time in a long time!)
P.S. - One voter in this morning's AP poll switched their No. 1 vote from Alabama to Florida. I'm disappointed. There should be more.
3) Oregon (7-0, 4-0, +13) - So, beating a good-not-great Arizona State team 43-21 doesn't seem like much... until .... until you realize that the Ducks scored all of their points over the course of 16 minutes, 22 seconds in the first and second quarters. That means they could have conceivably scored 160 points for the game. They led at half time 43-7, against what had been a top 10 defense, and played mostly bench warmers in the second half. The Ducks get one more tune-up at home against Colorado before they get to run the USC, Stanford, Oregon State gauntlet.
4) Notre Dame (7-0, 0-0, +12) - OK, I know that Lou Holtz is both an Irish Homer and kind of insane. But last night, I think he was stumbling upon one of the essential contradictions of the BCS, the polls, and college football. Everyone agrees that Oregon is better than Notre Dame. But if they both go undefeated, should the Ducks automatically get the BCS nod? Holtz thinks not. The Irish will have four wins against AP Top 25 teams (USC, Stanford, Oklahoma, Michigan) as will the Ducks (Oregon State, Stanford, USC twice). But Notre Dame will have played all its games against BCS conference opponents; they've got no cupcakes like Arkansas State or FCS Tennessee Tech on their schedule. (We can debate the relative merits of Colorado and Boston College later.) But how valid would it be to punish the Ducks for what's essentially an accident of the calendar? Hopefully, the Ducks will demolish Stanford, who came within a centimeter of beating the Irish, and make this whole talk academic.
P.S. - Oh wait, we don't have to! Thanks to all my hard work, we can see that 1-6 Colorado is a -30, meaning that they are slightly less of a drag on their opponent's strength of schedule than 1-6 Boston College, a -33. Hurray!
5) Kansas State (7-0, 4-0, +12) - Kansas State dominated West Virginia 55-14, and now ought to be considered the hands down favorite to win the Big 12. In a showdown of Heisman Trophy hopefuls, West Virginia QB Geno Smith was 21/32, 143 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTS, whereas K-State QB Collin Klein was 19/21, 323 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTS, plus 41 rushing yards on 12 attempts with 4 TDs. Ladies and gentlemen, your new Heisman leader.
6) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11) - Yes, I think that LSU will have a chance in their Nov. 3 showdown against Alabama. But they still needed a bit of luck in beating Texas A&M 24-19. Specifically, much maligned QB Zach Mettenberger was 11 for 29, with 0 TDs and 1 INT. The Tigers get next week off to prepare for Alabama.
On a related note, I don't think that there will be another all-SEC national championship this year. We really needed a perfect storm last year of not having Alabama and LSU play each other in the SEC championship, and of having Oregon and Oklahoma State lose late in the season. Never say never, I guess, but also, remember that the BCS Championship last year was terrible TV. ESPN remembers that, and I'm sure will remind the voters of that when it comes time to make a decision.
7) Rutgers (7-0, 4-0, +10)
8) Alabama (7-0, 4-0, +9) - Alabama rolled on the road, 44-13 against Tennessee. Preseason is over, and now it's time for the Tide to make their move. Next week they play Mississippi State - win, and I'll move them to third or fourth. The week after that, they get LSU. Win again, and they'll be Top 3, maybe higher, depending on what the Ducks and the Gators do. But everyone has to prove their worth on the field.
9) Ohio (7-0, 3-0, +8)
10) Ohio State (8-0, 4-0, +8) - The Buckeyes were the first of several Big Ten teams that escaped from an inferior opponent, beating Purdue 29-22 in overtime. Nebraska had to make a furious comeback to win at Northwestern 29-28, and Michigan beat Michigan State 12-10 on a last minute field goal. Ohio State is good, but not without (big) weaknesses: They gave up 347 yards on 5.0 yards per play to the Boilermakers a week after surrendering 49 points and 6.2 yards per play to Indiana.
11) Louisville (7-0, 2-0, +7)
12) Mississippi State (7-0, 3-0, +7) - Mississippi State has two wins against FBS teams with winning records: 4-3 Troy and 4-3 Middle Tennessee State. In the next three weeks, they play Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. Good-bye, so long, aufwiedersehn farewell.
13) Oklahoma (5-1, 3-1, +7) - Oklahoma coasted at home 52-7 against Kansas. Next week, they get their big showdown against Notre Dame. The Sooners will have homefield advantage, but I'm picking Notre Dame, based on how Oklahoma wilted against the only other defense they've faced so far this season, K-State.
14) Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1, +10) - Tech is kept low because they cannot pass Oklahoma, to whom they lost. This will change next week, when the Red Raiders play Kansas State and Oklahoma plays Notre Dame. (Unless they both lose.)(Which they will.)(Sorry Tech.)
15) Florida State (7-1, 4-1, +5)
16) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2, +4)
17) Georgia (6-1, 4-1, +4) - The Bulldogs just beat a Kentucky team, 29-24, that had previously lost to Florida 38-0 and Western Kentucky 32-31. Georgia's single loss this season was at South Carolina, 35-7, a team Florida beat 44-11. I'm putting money on the Gators next week. I might take the Bulldogs against Western Kentucky. I don't know.
18) Boise State (6-1, 3-0, +4) - Maybe the Broncos are better off not being in the national spotlight this year. After coming out flat in a 13-17 loss at Michigan State, Boise has quietly won six in a row, including 32-7 against UNLV and 20-10 last week against their old rivals, Fresno State. They don't have much opposition the rest of the way, though, until they finish the season against another old rival, Nevada. A Mountain West championship and an invitation to a third consecutive Las Vegas Bowl against UCLA may be the best Boise State can hope for at this point. Sigh. Viva Las Vegas. I guess.
19) USC (6-1, 4-1, +4) - Don't count out the Trojans. Matt Barkley broke a school record with his 101st career touchdown pass, and went 19/20 for 298 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs in a 50-6 win against hapless Colorado. 'SC still has a tough road ahead, but Oregon and Notre Dame both have to come to SoCal this year. Meanwhile, poor Colorado, now 1-6. They get to travel to Eugene next week, and then host Stanford the week after. Remember when they beat Oregon 38-6 in the 1996 Cotton Bowl? No. You don't.
(P.S. - Rick Neuheisel was the coach of that Colorado team. Weird.)
20) Michigan (5-2, 3-0, +3) - With their last minute 12-10 win over Michigan State, the Wolverines ended a four game losing streak to the Spartans, their longest in history. Likewise, this win gets them one step closer to their first Rose Bowl since 2007. If they fail to make the Rose Bowl this year, it will be their longest absence from the Grandaddy since they failed to make the trip to Pasadena from 1952-1965.
21) Toledo (7-1, 3-0, +3)
22) Clemson (6-1, 3-1, +2)
23) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +2)
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Stanford (5-2, 3-1, +1)
2) Florida (7-0, 6-0, +15) - Hopefully Florida's 44-11 dismantling of South Carolina made the Crimson Tide sit up and take notice. South Carolina turned the ball over four times, and at one point the Gators had 21 points on 24 total yards. Florida is for real, though, with wins against South Carolina, LSU, and Texas A&M. A lot will be at stake next week against Georgia. Then, strangely enough, the Gators have one more game, versus Missouri, and then they'll be done with their SEC schedule. They finish their season against Louisiana-Lafayette, Jacksonville State, and then at Florida State, in a game that might have BCS implications. (For the first time in a long time!)
P.S. - One voter in this morning's AP poll switched their No. 1 vote from Alabama to Florida. I'm disappointed. There should be more.
3) Oregon (7-0, 4-0, +13) - So, beating a good-not-great Arizona State team 43-21 doesn't seem like much... until .... until you realize that the Ducks scored all of their points over the course of 16 minutes, 22 seconds in the first and second quarters. That means they could have conceivably scored 160 points for the game. They led at half time 43-7, against what had been a top 10 defense, and played mostly bench warmers in the second half. The Ducks get one more tune-up at home against Colorado before they get to run the USC, Stanford, Oregon State gauntlet.
4) Notre Dame (7-0, 0-0, +12) - OK, I know that Lou Holtz is both an Irish Homer and kind of insane. But last night, I think he was stumbling upon one of the essential contradictions of the BCS, the polls, and college football. Everyone agrees that Oregon is better than Notre Dame. But if they both go undefeated, should the Ducks automatically get the BCS nod? Holtz thinks not. The Irish will have four wins against AP Top 25 teams (USC, Stanford, Oklahoma, Michigan) as will the Ducks (Oregon State, Stanford, USC twice). But Notre Dame will have played all its games against BCS conference opponents; they've got no cupcakes like Arkansas State or FCS Tennessee Tech on their schedule. (We can debate the relative merits of Colorado and Boston College later.) But how valid would it be to punish the Ducks for what's essentially an accident of the calendar? Hopefully, the Ducks will demolish Stanford, who came within a centimeter of beating the Irish, and make this whole talk academic.
P.S. - Oh wait, we don't have to! Thanks to all my hard work, we can see that 1-6 Colorado is a -30, meaning that they are slightly less of a drag on their opponent's strength of schedule than 1-6 Boston College, a -33. Hurray!
5) Kansas State (7-0, 4-0, +12) - Kansas State dominated West Virginia 55-14, and now ought to be considered the hands down favorite to win the Big 12. In a showdown of Heisman Trophy hopefuls, West Virginia QB Geno Smith was 21/32, 143 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTS, whereas K-State QB Collin Klein was 19/21, 323 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTS, plus 41 rushing yards on 12 attempts with 4 TDs. Ladies and gentlemen, your new Heisman leader.
6) LSU (7-1, 3-1, +11) - Yes, I think that LSU will have a chance in their Nov. 3 showdown against Alabama. But they still needed a bit of luck in beating Texas A&M 24-19. Specifically, much maligned QB Zach Mettenberger was 11 for 29, with 0 TDs and 1 INT. The Tigers get next week off to prepare for Alabama.
On a related note, I don't think that there will be another all-SEC national championship this year. We really needed a perfect storm last year of not having Alabama and LSU play each other in the SEC championship, and of having Oregon and Oklahoma State lose late in the season. Never say never, I guess, but also, remember that the BCS Championship last year was terrible TV. ESPN remembers that, and I'm sure will remind the voters of that when it comes time to make a decision.
7) Rutgers (7-0, 4-0, +10)
8) Alabama (7-0, 4-0, +9) - Alabama rolled on the road, 44-13 against Tennessee. Preseason is over, and now it's time for the Tide to make their move. Next week they play Mississippi State - win, and I'll move them to third or fourth. The week after that, they get LSU. Win again, and they'll be Top 3, maybe higher, depending on what the Ducks and the Gators do. But everyone has to prove their worth on the field.
9) Ohio (7-0, 3-0, +8)
10) Ohio State (8-0, 4-0, +8) - The Buckeyes were the first of several Big Ten teams that escaped from an inferior opponent, beating Purdue 29-22 in overtime. Nebraska had to make a furious comeback to win at Northwestern 29-28, and Michigan beat Michigan State 12-10 on a last minute field goal. Ohio State is good, but not without (big) weaknesses: They gave up 347 yards on 5.0 yards per play to the Boilermakers a week after surrendering 49 points and 6.2 yards per play to Indiana.
11) Louisville (7-0, 2-0, +7)
12) Mississippi State (7-0, 3-0, +7) - Mississippi State has two wins against FBS teams with winning records: 4-3 Troy and 4-3 Middle Tennessee State. In the next three weeks, they play Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. Good-bye, so long, aufwiedersehn farewell.
13) Oklahoma (5-1, 3-1, +7) - Oklahoma coasted at home 52-7 against Kansas. Next week, they get their big showdown against Notre Dame. The Sooners will have homefield advantage, but I'm picking Notre Dame, based on how Oklahoma wilted against the only other defense they've faced so far this season, K-State.
14) Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1, +10) - Tech is kept low because they cannot pass Oklahoma, to whom they lost. This will change next week, when the Red Raiders play Kansas State and Oklahoma plays Notre Dame. (Unless they both lose.)(Which they will.)(Sorry Tech.)
15) Florida State (7-1, 4-1, +5)
16) South Carolina (6-2, 4-2, +4)
17) Georgia (6-1, 4-1, +4) - The Bulldogs just beat a Kentucky team, 29-24, that had previously lost to Florida 38-0 and Western Kentucky 32-31. Georgia's single loss this season was at South Carolina, 35-7, a team Florida beat 44-11. I'm putting money on the Gators next week. I might take the Bulldogs against Western Kentucky. I don't know.
18) Boise State (6-1, 3-0, +4) - Maybe the Broncos are better off not being in the national spotlight this year. After coming out flat in a 13-17 loss at Michigan State, Boise has quietly won six in a row, including 32-7 against UNLV and 20-10 last week against their old rivals, Fresno State. They don't have much opposition the rest of the way, though, until they finish the season against another old rival, Nevada. A Mountain West championship and an invitation to a third consecutive Las Vegas Bowl against UCLA may be the best Boise State can hope for at this point. Sigh. Viva Las Vegas. I guess.
19) USC (6-1, 4-1, +4) - Don't count out the Trojans. Matt Barkley broke a school record with his 101st career touchdown pass, and went 19/20 for 298 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs in a 50-6 win against hapless Colorado. 'SC still has a tough road ahead, but Oregon and Notre Dame both have to come to SoCal this year. Meanwhile, poor Colorado, now 1-6. They get to travel to Eugene next week, and then host Stanford the week after. Remember when they beat Oregon 38-6 in the 1996 Cotton Bowl? No. You don't.
(P.S. - Rick Neuheisel was the coach of that Colorado team. Weird.)
20) Michigan (5-2, 3-0, +3) - With their last minute 12-10 win over Michigan State, the Wolverines ended a four game losing streak to the Spartans, their longest in history. Likewise, this win gets them one step closer to their first Rose Bowl since 2007. If they fail to make the Rose Bowl this year, it will be their longest absence from the Grandaddy since they failed to make the trip to Pasadena from 1952-1965.
21) Toledo (7-1, 3-0, +3)
22) Clemson (6-1, 3-1, +2)
23) UCLA (5-2, 2-2, +2)
24) West Virginia (5-2, 2-2, +1)
25) Stanford (5-2, 3-1, +1)
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